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[Mupepe]

Nintendo has vast cash resources but chooses to let Yamamuchi roll naked in it rather than spend any of it to gain ground in the industry it once literally owned.

:lol :lol

The name "Playstation" today has the same recognition as the name "Nintendo" had 10-15 years ago. It is the defining label of the industry. (IE the phrase "Im gonna go play some playstation" is heard all the time in movies and tv just as the name Nintendo was used before it)

You just fixed yourself right there. Things change.
It's way too early to even tell who's going to be on top, even though I personally think Sony will be at least for the next gen. They're still riding high on this gen and last. It will take next gen for MS to even prove that they have what it takes to be the market leader. I don't think by any means the xbox 360 will fail next gen. It has everything it needs to at least succeed this gen. MS has learned a lot and it shows. Unless they do something horribly wrong, I don't see them going anywhere. They have IP's, loyalty, a user base and developer backing now.

 

[imastalker co.]

i love the fact that this dude has head shots.

 

[DarienA]

IMO MS needs one more gen of being 2nd place before they've got a legit chance at #1(unless tons of exclusives fly from PS3 to X360, and we haven't see any indications of that).. However this next generation of being in 2nd place... they need to come out of it with a much HIGHER % of the marketshare to have any real shot at being #1 in the following generation.

I mean we can all talk about look at how much they came in and took 2nd.... but as others have pointed out... the lead Sony had continued to grow after they came in... and still grows today....

 

[Amir0x]

The problem with most arguments of this type is that there's always a "last man standing" type of air about it. If PlayStation "wins", it's at the expense of Xbox. If Xbox "wins", it's at the expense of PlayStation.

Ideally, would it matter if both survived and did well? Obviously not. Some people prefer what XBX offers, others what PS offers. But in the context of who will do first, second, third... it just means third party support. The better you do, the more third party support you get.

People in PlayStation camp are quick to dismiss XBX strength - superior online, first mover, better support than last gen, etc...

People in Microsoft camp are quick to dismiss PS strength - they use bs like 'mindshare' to justify a 70 million console gap and consistently powerful third party support.

Everyone will do well, I think. It appears both MS and Sony are securing the type of games that make both systems appealing to some subset of people. Honestly, barring a huge price disadvantage for PS3 or a mindblowing setback for MS like losing Madden at some point next-gen lol), they're both going to do well. It is MS, I think, that has by far the most to gain however. And I think it'll show, and second or first place it's going to be a victory of some sort.

 

[Deg]

MS and Nintendo camp remind me of this:

At the end of the day gaming is PlayStation. No matter where you go Playstation dominates.

I was in Asia for 10 days and in the media i never saw Xbox or Nintendo mentioned(besides GBA/DS) even once. It was all PS3 stuff.

 

[GSG Flash]

I can actually see MS having a lead everywhere but in Japan. If X360 is cheap enough and the PS3 is expensive enough as the reports and articles are saying, then MS should have no problem as the games for the 360 look really attractive to consumers too. Japan on the other hand has their dick up Sony's ass and I bet you anything that Dragon Quest is going to be exclusive to PS3 and that alone basically determines who wins in Japan.

 

[Amir0x]

I can actually see MS having a lead everywhere but in Japan. If X360 is cheap enough and the PS3 is expensive enough as the reports and articles are saying, then MS should have no problem as the games for the 360 look really attractive to consumers too. Japan on the other hand has their dick up Sony's ass and I bet you anything that Dragon Quest is going to be exclusive to PS3 and that alone basically determines who wins in Japan.

Europe is PlayStation land too. It's almost as "bad" as Japan. I don't think any of these predictions have any relevance. US is the real battleground here. Everything else is supplimental.

 

[mrklaw]

I can actually see MS having a lead everywhere but in Japan. If X360 is cheap enough and the PS3 is expensive enough as the reports and articles are saying, then MS should have no problem as the games for the 360 look really attractive to consumers too. Japan on the other hand has their dick up Sony's ass and I bet you anything that Dragon Quest is going to be exclusive to PS3 and that alone basically determines who wins in Japan.

well I can see lots of things.

sure, Xbox 360 could surprise everyone and run away with it next gen.

Or it could crash and burn *really* badly.

Its going to be interesting watching the next 2-3 years pan out.

 

[quetz67]

It isnt as bad as japan, but when the xbox 360 will be out, it is 3 years after release of the xbox. Ok it is 3 and a half year, but before the price drop (479 euros to 249 Euros incl. 2 games) holiday season 2002 nearly no xbox was sold at all.

I dont see many xbox owners jump on the next gen train that fast (OK, some hardcore early adopters sure will).

PS2 is out a little longer, but I dont see any PS2 owners getting an xbox, at least not until they have seen what PS3 has to offer. Would probably be different, if PS2 owners are unhappy with their choice, but after what games had been available the last years I just dont think so.

 

[trmas]

I think MS biggest problem is lack of system selling software in the "launch window". The only game I've seen that could make me want a 360 so far is GoW. And GoW has some issues as well - the animation is pretty terrible at present.

But compounding the issue is the flood of terrific software for the PS2 and Cube this Fall. Many gamers will not see a reason to upgrade at present whatsoever. I really don't see that much of a lead for MS like many XBots predict. Couple excellent software on the competition with XBox 1.5-like 360 offerings shown so far, and Microsoft would be better served to delay and launch against the PS3 with a strong set of hardware with HD-DVD, and true next-generation type games.

Now, I'll be happy to eat my words if Microsoft can show something approaching GoW quality within this timeframe, but really right now there are no compelling reasons to buy the machine when GoW won't be available for at least a while. And the lack of a HD-DVD drive at launch has the potential to really fracture the 360 userbase.

MS just doesn't appear to be ready yet

 

[thorns]

I think MS biggest problem is lack of system selling software in the "launch window". The only game I've seen that could make me want a 360 so far is GoW. And GoW has some issues as well - the animation is pretty terrible at present.

PGR 3, NFS, Madden, Call of Duty, Elder Scrolls not enough big franchises? NFS, Madden and CoD are first-tier franchises, and there are a lot of second-tier franchises as well..

 

[trmas]

And the only one of those games that even looks close to Next-Gen at this time is PGR3. Interesting enough, I've yet to see one video of that game that isn't from a replay angle. The rest are minor upgrades over the current generation.

 

[pestul]

And the only one of those games that even looks close to Next-Gen at this time is PGR3. Interesting enough, I've yet to see one video of that game that isn't from a replay angle. The rest are minor upgrades over the current generation.

Thanks for defining 'next-gen' for us. Most of those games look incredible, and I'm sure the general population will feel that way too.

For MS to win in worldwide sales nextgen, Sony has to flatout fuck up. There are a few windows of opertunity where they may do this, but it has to almost be more extreme than the N64 and I just don't see it heading that way. If it gets pushed back to early 2007 in the US, that could be a seriously problem.

 

[urk]

For MS to win in worldwide sales nextgen, Sony has to flatout fuck up. There are a few windows of opertunity where they may do this, but it has to almost be more extreme than the N64 and I just don't see it heading that way. If it gets pushed back to early 2007 in the US, that could be a seriously problem.

I think you're dead on. Sony is going to dominate again, but their lead is going to lessen. How significantly is going to depend on their price point, their launch date, and whether or not MS can get a much better library going than they have current gen.

 

[thorns]

And the only one of those games that even looks close to Next-Gen at this time is PGR3. Interesting enough, I've yet to see one video of that game that isn't from a replay angle. The rest are minor upgrades over the current generation.

what a load of bullshit.

 

[kaching]

i'm pretty sure MS had more than a 4 year plan in mind with the xbox franchise...

Any smart company would, but that doesn't preclude ROI in the meantime. Ideally you'd want a business plan wherein the product line starts paying for itself sooner than this.

 

[GrandPipe]

"Our view is basically: We've got a Ferrari. They've got a Ferrari," Gates said in a question-and-answer session Thursday. "Our Ferrari is leaving the starting line substantially before their Ferrari is, and, in most races, that's a very nice thing."

i like this quote. i think the comparason is correct and i can see his point about the 'first out' point of view. But the Playstation brand name is too hot a property and brand recognition, imo, will help it leap past the Xbox in sales. (yes i realise that wasn't very deep).

 

[Ponn]

PGR 3, NFS, Madden, Call of Duty, Elder Scrolls not enough big franchises? NFS, Madden and CoD are first-tier franchises, and there are a lot of second-tier franchises as well..

Yes they look good, I wouldn't say they don't. On the other hand you have to consider to who they are first tier franchises? Will the general consumer recognize any of those titles past Madden? PGR is a good series but nowhere near Ridge Racer or GT level and past PC and current Xbox owners the other titles you mentioned are sort of obscure.

 

[Mrbob]

Looking at current numbers, here is what I think MS best case scenario would be next generation:

Europe - 12 million > Cut a little bit into the Playstation mindshare but still a distant second to Sony

Japan - 5 million > Sell much more than the original Xbox. Around Gamecube levels total.

These both are stepping stones to the generation after where MS can make the most impact

North America - 20 to 30 million > Somewhere around there. If MS play their cards right they could possibly split NA with Sony. I think the headstart will work best in this territory. I also think with a bigger installed user base, Halo 3 can end up topping San Andreas sales and be the best selling NA game of the last two generations. Halo 3 will be massive for MS in NA. I have a wide gap because if MS can somehow secure the next GTA exclusive for a limited time I think Xbox 360 can reach the higher number. The one two punch of Halo 3 and the next generation GTA would be huge.

All just idle speculation. I'm probably way off. Watch Xbox 360 sell 20 million in Japan and only 6 million in NA! :lol

 

[sonycowboy]

Looking at current numbers, here is what I think MS best case scenario would be next generation:

Europe - 12 million > Cut a little bit into the Playstation mindshare but still a distant second to Sony

Japan - 5 million > Sell much more than the original Xbox. Around Gamecube levels total.

These both are stepping stones to the generation after where MS can make the most impact

North America - 20 to 30 million > Somewhere around there. If MS play their cards right they could possibly split NA with Sony. I think the headstart will work best in this territory. I also think with a bigger installed user base, Halo 3 can end up topping San Andreas sales and be the best selling NA game of the last two generations. Halo 3 will be massive for MS in NA. I have a wide gap because if MS can somehow secure the next GTA exclusive for a limited time I think Xbox 360 can reach the higher number. The one two punch of Halo 3 and the next generation GTA would be huge.

All just idle speculation. I'm probably way off. Watch Xbox 360 sell 20 million in Japan and only 6 million in NA! :lol

I don't see a split in NA for a couple of reasons.

Playstation is THE established brand and appears to have held onto their best exclusives quite well. As has been mentioned before, for people to drop their current console of choice and get another, there has to be a hugely compelling reason on a large scale. That is, either Sony has to screw up or Microsoft has to do something really, really big. Halo is already a known quantity and if people didn't buy an Xbox for Halo 2, why would 2-3 as many gamers buy a 360 for Halo 3?

There has to be a reason for a huge consumer shift, and right now, the only one is the early launch and in a year, a significantly larger library for the 360 vs the fledgling PS3. And I don't see those being enough to cause that shift.

I'd expect Microsoft knows this and is 'on the phone' with developers for exclusives and probably has some big ones we still don't know about. They have to. Unless they're content with being #2, which I think they probably will be (privately, of course, despite PR bravado expressing otherwise). They've cut corners on the 360 to make it more profitable and it doesn't really make tons of sense to then go around and overspend to get exclusive franchises, where while they will make a difference, can't possibly sell enough to recoup your money.

Microsoft, IMO, will be ecstatic to get 50M Xbox's sold this generation and be even better positioned for the next generation, which they might kick start early again, in say 2010. A 200% increase would be huge and it's getting to the point that winning a generation won't be as meaningful as in the past. Both will be successful and both will put out new systems the generation after this and the generation after that.

It's time for people to look at this long term as a business. As much as people want one side to "destroy" the other, it just ain't gonna happen.

 

[Cuth]

Is there anyone who thinks the 360 is more powerful than the PS3?

Well... I've read that's the opinion of some developers. Working on all next-gen platforms.

Maybe they'll change opinion later, when final hardware is around, I don't know.

 

[sonycowboy]

Well... I've read that's the opinion of some developers. Working on all next-gen platforms.

Maybe they'll change opinion later, when final hardware is around, I don't know.

Link? Who are they?

 

[Mrbob]

Sonycowboy I was speculating about their best case scenerios. I agree a lot of things will have to fall into place.

 

[drohne]

"Our view is basically: We've got a Ferrari. They've got a Ferrari," Gates said in a question-and-answer session Thursday. "Our Ferrari is leaving the starting line substantially before their Ferrari is, and, in most races, that's a very nice thing. I've mixed this metaphor so thoroughly I'm not sure what 'Ferrari' refers to anymore. "

NINTENDO HAS A SWEET LAMBORGHINI COUNTACH

 

[krypt0nian]

NINTENDO HAS A SWEET LAMBORGHINI COUNTACH

 

[COCKLES]

I too, was under the impression the Xbox brand was doing better in EU....

Pretty much everyone I know (including me for a new LiVE Xbox) is holding off for 360 now.

 

[Kleegamefan]

NINTENDO HAS A SWEET LAMBORGHINI COUNTACH

Which is nowhere near as fast as an Enzo (PS3) or even an F430 (X360)

 

[Cuth]

Link? Who are they?

Maybe my previous message wasn't a good idea... I don't want to make GAF explode

(PM)

 

[mrklaw]

why the assumption here that Xbox has its best chance in the US? Is it just because its a US console? Or has 'sports' games? Wouldn't the 'western' games thing also mean it should be successful in Europe too?

And if Xbox 360 does only 10-12 million in Europe, I don't see how thats a springboard for next gen. Thats a springboard for them pulling the plug.

 

[Kleegamefan]

But 10-12 million in EU would be a big jump....they only sold 5M Xbox there..

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Halo is already a known quantity and if people didn't buy an Xbox for Halo 2, why would 2-3 as many gamers buy a 360 for Halo 3?

The year Halo 2 released, it's hype was more than enough for the Xbox to outsell the PS2 for a majority of the months of the year in NA.

Next year, if Halo 3 and potentially another big game releases for the X360, the PS3 will be off to a slow start, which could affect things for a while, right? (Bigger userbase over competition = more visible to devs, meaning more games for your system, some exclusive. Exclusives mean more sales, and it could be self-perpetuating)

 

[Cuth]

But 10-12 million in EU would be a big jump....they only sold 5M Xbox there..

But they want to reach 1 billion people!

[OT] please make some space in your PM box

 

[krypt0nian]

But they want to reach 1 billion people!

They want the industry to reach 1 Billion people.

 

[TheDuce22]

But 10-12 million in EU would be a big jump....they only sold 5M Xbox there..

Five million was a big jump from zero.

 

[Mrbob]

why the assumption here that Xbox has its best chance in the US? Is it just because its a US console? Or has 'sports' games? Wouldn't the 'western' games thing also mean it should be successful in Europe too?

And if Xbox 360 does only 10-12 million in Europe, I don't see how thats a springboard for next gen. Thats a springboard for them pulling the plug.

Well, Xbox is only at 5.3 million right no in Europe. 12 million would be a little more than double. I'd say that is a good goal to shoot for.

Regarding Halo 2, the game has around 6 or 7 million sold worldwide. And that is on a userbase of 21 million. If MS can expand that userbase I can see Halo 3 totals going much higher. Halo 2 outsold Halo and I expect Halo 3 to outsell Halo 2. Remember, the PS2 has installed userbase of 28 million in NA and San Andreas is only around 5.5 million. Yeah, that is a hell of a number but it isn't like the majority of PS2 owners bought the game.

 

[Ponn]

Wasn't it MS that said the first to 10 million wins?

 

[llTll]

PGR 3, NFS, Madden, Call of Duty, Elder Scrolls not enough big franchises? NFS, Madden and CoD are first-tier franchises, and there are a lot of second-tier franchises as well..

actually, Madden and SSX alone made the ps2 launch so successful. surly it wasnt fantavision [ sp? ]


i predict xbox 360 launch to be really big. i dont know about being sold out [ even though it could be really great marketing from MS, since Sony always do it, but i am sure xbox 360 will be huge this year

 

[Pimpwerx]

The year Halo 2 released, it's hype was more than enough for the Xbox to outsell the PS2 for a majority of the months of the year in NA.

Next year, if Halo 3 and potentially another big game releases for the X360, the PS3 will be off to a slow start, which could affect things for a while, right? (Bigger userbase over competition = more visible to devs, meaning more games for your system, some exclusive. Exclusives mean more sales, and it could be self-perpetuating)

Sony undershipped units. Look at MS's annual sales for that year. Doesn't come close to the kind of units Sony moves normally in NA. MS needs more than to beat an underachieving PS. They need to sell in PS1/2 levels. There's a difference between beating a sluggish performer and having genuinely good performance. The Xbox, even in its best moments, was never selling great. The same for the GC. They're both under 12-15M in the US. AFAIK, the N64 closed in on 20M over here. That there's still a significant gap to the N64 for both machines is quite telling IMO. Meanwhile, Sony will easily outsell the PS1's total with the PS2. PEACE.

 

[mckmas8808]

Sony undershipped units. Look at MS's annual sales for that year. Doesn't come close to the kind of units Sony moves normally in NA. MS needs more than to beat an underachieving PS. They need to sell in PS1/2 levels. There's a difference between beating a sluggish performer and having genuinely good performance. The Xbox, even in its best moments, was never selling great. The same for the GC. They're both under 12-15M in the US. AFAIK, the N64 closed in on 20M over here. That there's still a significant gap to the N64 for both machines is quite telling IMO. Meanwhile, Sony will easily outsell the PS1's total with the PS2. PEACE.

I'm glad someone noticed this. Why does MS gets all the glory for making a viable console within their first try, when Sony did the same thing 11 years ago and dominated.
The Xbox's sells would have been worst had not the DC folded. I like to think that the missing of the Sega DC helped the sales of the Xbox.

If you add the sales of the Xbox and GC together you get about the same numbers that the N64 and Saturn did last gen. With Sony still heavy in the lead. So some pro-Xbox people here have to give me a bigger reason why it could over come the PS3 next-gen. PGR3 and GoW will not do it alone, nor will Halo3.

 

[Katana_Strikes]

PGR3 and GoW will not do it alone, nor will Halo3.

FFXI? :lol

 

[Barnimal]

again...how much of a lead did sony have already? i dont understand why you people have this thought in your head that a newcomer can just come in a year after the king was already in its throne and boot him out. it wasnt even that hard for sony taking down nintendo with the psx. sony had all sorts of advantages against nintendo and its 64. its not the same game at all.

 

[Kleegamefan]

There was a large migration of disgruntled DC fans to the Xbox with it large influx of Sega games like Shenmue, PD Orta, Jet Set Radio Future and others...

In fact I seem to rember alot of "DreamCast lives on in Xbox" threads back in the day :lol

 

[Mrbob]

I'm glad someone noticed this. Why does MS gets all the glory for making a viable console within their first try, when Sony did the same thing 11 years ago and dominated.
The Xbox's sells would have been worst had not the DC folded. I like to think that the missing of the Sega DC helped the sales of the Xbox.

If you add the sales of the Xbox and GC together you get about the same numbers that the N64 and Saturn did last gen. With Sony still heavy in the lead. So some pro-Xbox people here have to give me a bigger reason why it could over come the PS3 next-gen. PGR3 and GoW will not do it alone, nor will Halo3.

GTA series alone did not push the PS2. It sounds sappy, but it is true. The console with the best selection of games in all genres is the one which will be the leader.

 

[TheDuce22]

There was a large migration of disgruntled DC fans to the Xbox with it large influx of Sega games like Shenmue, PD Orta, Jet Set Radio Future and others...

I guess that explains the massive sales numbers those games racked up.

 

[Katana_Strikes]

There was a large migration of disgruntled DC fans to the Xbox with it large influx of Sega games like Shenmue, PD Orta, Jet Set Radio Future and others...

In fact I seem to rember alot of "DreamCast lives on in Xbox" threads back in the day :lol

Hell yeah, to me (at least at early in the Xbox's life) it was Dreamcast 2 to me. Then Sega stopped making games!

 

[Tellaerin]

"Our view is basically: We've got a Camaro. They've got a Ferrari," Gates said in a question-and-answer session Thursday. "Our Camaro is leaving the starting line substantially before their Ferrari is, and we're praying that this headstart will let us get to the finish line before they blow our doors off."

Fixed.

 

[mckmas8808]

"Our view is basically: We've got a Camaro. They've got a Ferrari," Gates said in a question-and-answer session Thursday. "Our Camaro is leaving the starting line substantially before their Ferrari is, and we're praying that this headstart will let us get to the finish line before they blow our doors off."



Fixed.

The best fixed that I have seen in a while.

 

[Wulfer]

Some people on this board better thank their lucky stars the Sega did drop DC or this gen would have probably been alot different. One being Sony losing alot of it's sale in that one year head start they got from DC's drop out. Remember back then DC had more systems sold! Sega's problem wasn't Sony it was the lack of CASH! Funny how people forget that!

 

[TheInkyVoid]

Some people on this board better thank their lucky stars the Sega did drop DC or this gen would have probably been alot different. One being Sony losing alot of it's sale in that one year head start they got from DC's drop out. Remember back then DC had more systems sold! Sega's problem wasn't Sony it was the lack of CASH! Funny how people forget that!

Drop out, hang around. It didn't matter.

The Dreamcast was dead before it hit the shelves. It was dead before many people had even heard the word Dreamcast. At the major console dev house I was at back at that time the subject of what about the Dreamcast was asked by someone at a company meeting. It was stated bluntely that the platform was not worth even as a system to dump ports to. The company was ramping up for the PS2 and any time or resources spent not doing that was a waste. Friends who worked at other console houses have said the same thing about their companies and the Dreamcast.

There is no such thing as a 'head start' or 'lead' in the console market. There is a fixed set of potential console buyers for a fixed set of developer IPs on that platform. Price and launch timeframe for the most part just shift when those target consumers buy the console. Sega managing to keep selling Dreamcasts would have done nothing to cause the major console dev houses to port their titles to the platform.

 

[Pimpwerx]

Some people on this board better thank their lucky stars the Sega did drop DC or this gen would have probably been alot different. One being Sony losing alot of it's sale in that one year head start they got from DC's drop out. Remember back then DC had more systems sold! Sega's problem wasn't Sony it was the lack of CASH! Funny how people forget that!

DC didn't die on its own. I believe one large and looming PS2 had a great deal to do with its death. Being first to market means shit. Sony has an advantage b/c they control the market and have their name stamped on the industry. To compound the problem, they are only gaining momentum, not losing it. The DC had a 3M or more unit lead before the PS2 landed and just started chewing it up. The Xbox and GC landed and had all of a month of gain before being blown off the field again. Why should MS get any greater advantage than Sega coming to market first? The DC got some hot properties early on too, lest we forget. SC and RE and DOA and uh oh....looks similar to something else? The DC lacked EA's support, but for the most part, it had a solid lineup and all the other stuff people want to claim is so important. But it lacked credibility b/c everyone and their mother new the next Playstation was gonna have all the marquee games. Everyone and their mother knows the same about the PS3, why should that change? This perception that all titles will go multiplatform is an erroneous one IMO. When the dust settles and Sony's holding onto 60+% of the market again, the same exclusives will start happening again.

The only difference I see this gen is that MS has EA and Square, but if the SE commitment doesn't slap you across the face, nothing will. The hill is steep and very tall. Can it be climbed? Yes, but it'll take a big fall by Sony to make that happen. It's just the way the game works IMO. We should be talking about Nintendo in this light now if they hadn't repeatedly blundered their way out of marketshare. Witness what's starting to happen now in the handheld market. EA's projections are the first indicator. The PSP is getting clowned in Japan, but the gap is nowhere near monumental. Matter of fact, it's pretty close for a damn near worthless system like the PSP (lack of software, that is). Even if Nintendo emerges at the end of the cycle with the handheld market lead, they'll still have lost a huge chunk of the market, and thus their revenue. And IMO, that's due to the blunder on Nintendo's part, b/c Sony hasn't done anything special with the PSP besides the hw design. Their execution has been sloppy, to say the least, and they're still in strong contention. If Sony prices themselves into a rut, or launches too late, they'll have problems. But with only 6 months at least until the Japanese launch, and everyone but Team Ninja on-board, it's looking like the fight has continued into Rd 3, but the opposition has already been beaten ugly. IMO, it's a lot like the OS market. Anyone can conceivably step in, but toppling the Windows dynasty will take more than software support and a good interface. You have to topple the mind/marketshare and momentum that platform has created. PEACE.