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My thrice removed anonymous source says that it's impossible to produce PS3!

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Xrenity

Member
Got this from a guy who got it from some other guy... which is said to be a developer.
Pic from 360 devkit (supposedly coming from him):
http://i3.tinypic.com/w7c39y.jpg

ANYWAY, the guy posted this:
Let's look at it like this:

In order to have a christmas launch, sony needs the ps3 out there by november. That's 7 months from now.

7 * 30 = 210

They have 210 days to make their production runs. If they started tomorrow, they would need to make 4761 units per day just to reach 1,000,000 units world wide. That would be less than the 360 launch.

1,000,000 / 210 = 4761

So let's say they need at least a million units per reigon in order to have a realistic world wide launch. That would require sony produce 14,000 units per day starting May 1st.

3,000,000 / 210 = 14,286

Let's say sony doesn't get the console finalized until june, gets the production facilities running until July. That gives them just 4 months to reach the 3,000,000 figure. They would need to produce 25,000 consoles per day, every day.

3,000,000 / 120 = 25,000

This all assumes that there are no manufacturing glitches. Remember when sony decided to retool the chip fab facility from .25 micron chips to .18 micron chips right before the ps2 launch? That cut the output of the production facility in half.

While we're throwing numbers around, lets assume Sony does make 3,000,000 units at a $200 dollar loss....

3,000,000 * 200 = 600,000,000

That's a six hundred million dollar loss.... good luck with that
Click to expand...
Sounds like an impossible job to me!
 
A delay would give me time to buy a Rev with games.

I really just want MGS4 anyway, so until that's out there isn't a huge need for PS3.
 
I see no reason why they couldn't match those numbers... it'll be quite a loss, yes, but those production rates don't seem that unreasonable.
 
Very interesting!
But maybe they would decide to launch in the US only and Japan during spring. After all, the only they really lose users is here in the America...
 
First off all, they only need to have 1.5 million (about 500k per territory) by mid November. Secondly, once they get all the factories churning them out, they should be able to pump enough units out for launch and keep pumping them out for steady supply through spring.

I do think that Sony will delay at least 1 territory until February, though, and that will most likely be Europe. People will say that it's better to have units available and games ready for a "real" launch instead of rushing it like Microsoft did. So, Sony will come away smelling like roses. Still, the 360 will sell extremely well this holiday season because of the shortages to PS3. If a serious glitch arises in the hardware, then I could see Sony delaying the North American release as well. I would not be surprised by a Euro delay, but I would be surprised by a North American delay.
 
Sony has not said there'll be 1m per region. 1m at launch, in fact, is the only number given. The launch will prob be staggered over Nov & Dec, though, which would complicate matters.

That said, if they could have 3m total at launch, I think they would, regardless of the loss on the hardware. The only way to come down the cost curve is to keep manufacturing them, and more units sold = more content and accessories sold, where the profit margins are.
 
The plan is not to have a million units per territory. Similarly, wasn't it "6m" by the end of Fiscal Year 2006, which would probably be 2million at launch and 1 million each month after until the end of March.
 
When did they start production of the 360 and how many units were at launch? Be interesting to see a comparison. Anyway, doesn't this happen at every launch?
 
Amir0x said:
The plan is not to have a million units per territory. Similarly, wasn't it "6m" by the end of Fiscal Year 2006, which would probably be 2million at launch and 1 million each month after until the end of March.
Click to expand...

Yup. That's exactly what they said.
 
I don't remember where I saw it, so please don't ask for a link, but I remember reading something from either late last year or early this year that said Sony was prepared to take a couple billion in losses on the PS3 hardware. If that's correct, what is proposed isn't really out of expectation for them.
 
Sony'll make launch. They've gotten too much press about the November worldwide launch that it'll kill them if they decided to delay it. Now I do expect shortages on a XBOX360 scale, possibly worse.
 
A rushed console leading to another rushed console.... i hope Sony isn't that dumb and will delay some territories instead.
 
It appears there is a good reason why this guy is a dev and shouldn't be concerned with the this kind of stuff. He doesn't seem to really understand it.

5k a day is "easy" -- when they start producing, it's going to be something like 25-60+k a day (on average, over a month, if he wants to calculate it like that) depending on the season and such. 20-25k a day would be around where you'd expect the earlier months of production to be at with it ramping slowly upwards to 60+k over time.

His loss calculations are rather goofy, as nobody in the accounting department really does it like that. Amortization is the bread and butter of projects like this. You're initial costs are rarely an issue if you know you're costs later on are going to be significantly lower, especially considering 80+% of your sales are going to be at the "significantly lower" point.
 
I wouldn't be suprised if Sony delayed shipments in a couple territories.

The system's too hotly anticipated. I highly doubt that delaying shipments in a few territories would impact their potential sales performance at all... it's the Playstation 3, for crying out loud. People are going to snap them up like hotcakes.
 
The plan announced in March is to have 6 million units by March 2007 with 1 million units per month.
So 3 million units worldwide by the end of 2006.
Anyway they will launch worldwide this year,even if that means they'll have 4 consoles for each region :D
SCEE has already issued official press releases about how it's cool that Europe this time won't get screwed :lol :lol :lol
 
SantaCruZer said:
:lol
Click to expand...

exactly :lol

I wouldn't be surprised if Europe gets dropped from the simultaneous launch and I'm not denying that a delay is a possibility but I'll wait til Sony officially announces one if this is the case.
 
unifin said:
I see no reason why they couldn't match those numbers... it'll be quite a loss, yes, but those production rates don't seem that unreasonable.
Click to expand...

Where does that wonderful avatar come from?
 
360 kits don't look like that.

There is nothing really wrong with that math. I don't know how many machines a production line can actually push out though.
 
Got this from a guy who got it from some other guy... which is said to be a developer.

Uhh, yeah - so that's about what it's worth too.

I heard from my sister in law, who heard from some other gal that Kutaragi was good in bed.
 
I personally would prefer that they delay the US/Europe launch until Jan/Feb to have a good amount of units. If the thing is going to be way harder to find than the 360 at launch, what the hell is the point? More importantly than that though, I'm wondering if they can get out decent games by then as well.
 
SailorDaravon said:
I personally would prefer that they delay the US/Europe launch until Jan/Feb to have a good amount of units. If the thing is going to be way harder to find than the 360 at launch, what the hell is the point?
Click to expand...

So that those of us that pre order can play it earlier instead of having to wait.
It doesn't hurt that if you get another unit you'll be pocketing an extra 2k+ dollars. :)
 
Y2Kevbug11 said:
A delay would give me time to buy a Rev with games.

I really just want MGS4 anyway, so until that's out there isn't a huge need for PS3.
Click to expand...

that's funny. i was thinking the same thing. it would be great if the PS3 was delayed... more play time for the Rev and 360 fall lineup =].
 
You know, If I remember hearing correctly, on these very forums, werent the chipsets and such already in production?
 
DrEvil said:
You know, If I remember hearing correctly, on these very forums, werent the chipsets and such already in production?
Click to expand...

Cell is already in volume production, at least. There was a report out just yesterday that component testing deals were close to being finalised. Of course, it only takes one wrench to cock up the works, but they seem to be quite conservative, getting certain key components into production early.
 
Eeeh...didnt Sony produce some 120 million PS2 in about 5 years? Isnt that about 2 million a month? Or about 70,000 a day? Or about 3,000 an hour? 50 a minute, nearly one every second?

If they do the same with PS3 it would be fine if they start producing in September.
 
quetz67 said:
Eeeh...didnt Sony produce some 120 million PS2 in about 5 years? Isnt that about 2 million a month? Or about 70,000 a day? Or about 3,000 an hour? 50 a minute, nearly one every second?

If they do the same with PS3 it would be fine if they start producing in September.
Click to expand...

Obviously you ramp up to that point. That's an average. It was lower than that starting out, higher at its peak.

I figure they'll start assembling systems late summer/early autumn.
 
are people actually going to invest in the first run of PS3s anyways, especially with probably a very paltry lineup for games?

I'll hold off on PS3 until MGS4 comes out. Til then it'll probably be a 360 for me.
 
gofreak said:
Sony has not said there'll be 1m per region. 1m at launch, in fact, is the only number given. The launch will prob be staggered over Nov & Dec, though, which would complicate matters.

That said, if they could have 3m total at launch, I think they would, regardless of the loss on the hardware. The only way to come down the cost curve is to keep manufacturing them, and more units sold = more content and accessories sold, where the profit margins are.
Click to expand...


True about economies of scale and all; but I think we'll see a trickle of PS3's until they start getting good yields at 65-NM.
 
whytemyke said:
are people actually going to invest in the first run of PS3s anyways, especially with probably a very paltry lineup for games?
Click to expand...

At this point Warhawk, Resistance, Ridge Racer 7, Lair and Motorstorm (looks like it could happen) are all sceduled to be released at or near launch. Several more once devs start talking about it. That lineup of games will make me happy.
 
gofreak said:
Obviously you ramp up to that point. That's an average. It was lower than that starting out, higher at its peak.

I figure they'll start assembling systems late summer/early autumn.
Click to expand...
I know these numbers arent accurate for a console launch, I just wanted to show how pulling some impressive looking numbers out of your ass does actually prove nothing.

That guy sounds like: "Wow - 25,000 consoles a day, that is a really, really, really big number, I sure wouldnt be able to produce that many consoles in a day, so how can Sony?"
 
I was under the impression that most of the parts required for ps3 production were finalized, that sony was waiting for final blu ray spec to be ready.

I have no doubt in my mind there will be shortages but after all this very specific november aimed hype I don't think sony will pull the launch. I forsee a 360 style shortage , even pricier forced bundles and a 6 month wait for any truly good content.

Sony is aiming for 6 million by the end of march 2007? I think that is the goal sure, much like how MS had goals for 360 production that werent' reached. I fully expect the official announcement of production shortfalls 2 weeks prior to system launch, when once again preorders will have been filled and thousands will be screwed over. They'll try to get 1 million to japan becuase they'll all sell , they'll try to get 1 million to north america becuase they'll probally all sell, europe will get the unit shaft though. They'll merely try to get some over there , like even 200,000.

Going by history repeating , I'm gonna say they'll have 800,000 ready for japanese launch and 500,000 ready for american launch with 200,000 ready for japanese launch. The 6 million goal will be cut in half with japan getting the post launch shaft- only 200,000 systems will ship over 4.5 months compared to 1 million to the US and 300,000 in europe. System shortages will start to disappear in april has boat shipped units arrive everywhere and I think the 1 million systems a month goal will be reached by June.

Likewise due to a number of factors , unless this thing sells extremly poorly it won't drop in price until E3 2008.
 
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