Barack Lesnar
Banned
The NPD sales this year don't seem to be that good, even despite the whole industry being down. I think it's floundering, while Vita is already 6-feet under.
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Nintendo announces Q1 results - $220 Million Quarterly Loss, 1.86M 3DS
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The NPD sales this year don't seem to be that good, even despite the whole industry being down. I think it's floundering, while Vita is already 6-feet under.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Not this year, unless they do $99.
What?
Barack Lesnar
Banned
I give 3DS a couple years before it becomes irrelevant in terms of sales and mindshare. The markets for smart phones and tablet gaming are only going to get bigger and bigger as time passes, while handheld gaming has already reached it's peak and is clearly on the way down. I thought this was the general consensus? Don't have to be an analyst to figure that out.
CyclopsRock
Member
I don't really think it's reasonable to say that they "ignored" the new challengers - we don't know exactly what their motivations for their choices of hardware and price were, and it's reasonable to assume it was the result of a number of different bits of information. What they did fail to do with regards to the "new challengers" (and this seems to be what you really meant) is emulate them. Now, I don't know if their choice to go higher-cost (relative) and higher-spec is a good one, but it's easy to see why; If you're facing a threat from a device that does lots of things quite well, and you are a gaming device (one of the things it does quite well), it seems perverse to think that a way of combatting these "new challengers" is to reduce your hardware specs to something more akin to theirs in order to reduce cost, as this will hamper your ability to actually provide unique experiences (be that graphically or otherwise). Again, I don't know if it's going to work (or, indeed, if there's any combination of hardware and price that can support dedicated gaming handhelds) but I don't think it's unreasonable for them to have gone out of their way to make sure that the one thing that they do do, they can do much better than on phones/tablets - even if that has cost implications.
Not this year full stop, a cut to $99 should see it hits 100m though.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Eh, this might be a less embarrassing prediction if NSMB2 and 3DSXL weren't launching in a month...
Barack Lesnar
Banned
But looking at it in the longer term, don't you sort of agree? These big short-term spikes will give it the perception that it's got a super bright future and everything but looking into it further the writing is on the wall for these handhelds. The market has already peaked and is on the way down. It can't grow any further, while its competition (smart phones and tablets) is the complete opposite of that.
Stealth20k
Banned
Yeah they will have to do 99 dollars but still what they did is historic anyway. It doesnt matter either way
nobody agrees with you
In fact, NSMB is a brand well known for selling just in its first week / month, right?
IrishNinja
Member
oh, i would say you kinda do
Munkyspace
Member
Whuh.
Ooooookay. I don't see where you're getting "handheld gaming has reached its limits" from. People who want a handheld experience will buy a dedicated device. The people who are flocking to the smartphones and tablets were never in the dedicated handheld demographic.
Also, not meaning to insult my fellow Americans, I've noticed that the American population is very fickle, and before you know it, there'll be a new fad that everyone will want.
All this Norstradomis(sp) bull people and analysts are preaching has become nothing but an annoying echo-chamber based on a faulty premise that could quickly shift any day now.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I actually think Wii has the potential for a decent life as a secondary budget console, and could do really well at $99 alongside Wii U.
Unfortunately, I also know how Nintendo operates, so that won't be happening. They forcibly killed GBA prematurely, are now doing the same to DS (where are the shipments?) and Wii will follow the same pattern. I mean just look at the 1st party software schedule.
We'll probably get to $99 in spring 2013, and Nintendo will simultaneously start cutting off supply to phase it out.
metalslimer
Member
Oh Heavy...
Alexios
Cores, shaders and BIOS oh my!
Well, with that kind of thinking you could say they're irrelevant already if you just wanna compare the volume of unit sales to smartphones and tablets and whatever else put together. But their video game revenue most certainly hasn't been and won't be eclipsed by those devices any time soon, we have hard numbers for that, even if the 3DS doesn't actually reach half the unit sales of the DS (which was a new phenomenon itself, you don't have to repeat such to actually be successful, it's also way too early to tell), so objectively they won't be irrelevant any time soon either, you'll just be able to say you called it just based on unit sales. It's also too convenient to just ignore the mistakes a company like Sony or Nintendo can do and have done to make their product less appealing than it could have actually been and just attribute every loss to some kind of unstoppable competition they can't fight. Nintendo most certainly has recovered from big mistakes in the past while the 3DS shortcomings aren't nearly as big as those and could in fact be fixable, time will tell. It's still silly to proclaim how doomed they are based on this as if they don't have any chance in hell of doing better throughout this generation or even the next, without knowing almost anything about such plans. That's crazy.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
Where is your proof of the bolded? Not that I have proof saying otherwise but if you have some evidence of that I'd like to see it. I think it's definitely having an effect in NA, no idea about Japan and Europe.
:lol I've got to stay out of these sales threads
Stealth20k
Banned
If the ds went to 70-90, it would overtake the ps2 as the top selling system i think eventually
metalslimer
Member
Anyway, Nintendo is never going to hit their forecasted shipment for the 3DS this year. They just reached in total the amount of 3DS they wanted to ship this year (19 milllion).
Well what do you expect when you call the 3DS going irrelevant before a Pokemon comes out.
Well what do you expect when you call the 3DS going irrelevant before a Pokemon comes out.
So what would be your number estimate of the handheld market sales and revenue in 2015?
Doesn't mean we can't discuss it, nobody is saying what they've done isn't historic ect ect, it's just interesting to try and see were Wii will top out, man why are you so defensive about Nintendo?
Kacho
Member
No way, dude. It probably won't be the behemoth the DS was, but it's not done in North America.
Come now; soccer moms, dads, and "hip" young teens never gave a shit about handheld gaming. People view Apple devices as luxury, professional products. This drives them to "keep up with the Joneses", as the iPhone and iPad have become status symbols.
They are irrelevant to handheld gaming. You can tell Sony knows that that demographic exists by having the OS resemble smartphone's and by launching Playstation Mobile.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I don't think we have enough insight to really forecast "longer term" past maybe early 2013. We don't know enough about further software releases past that, we don't yet know what XL/NSMB2 will do to the baseline, we don't know how well the transition to digital will take, we don't know if Nintendo will recalibrate pricepoints, we just don't really know enough. At this point there's real potential for 3DS in NA to easily go either direction.
On the other hand, it's pretty easy to see that August 2012 is going to be a big month for the system regardless, hence the ill-timing of your prediction.
Short-term spikes? Dude, Nintendo has yet to significantly cut the price of NSMB on DS. Why do you think that is?
Barack Lesnar
Banned
Exactly $3.1975 billion. Look, I don't know. I'm speaking in Pachteranese in the sense that this is what I feel the market is heading towards -- that it has reached its peak and is now on the decline, while smart phone and tablet gaming is the opposite.
Maybe Vita's failure and all the articles we've been inundated with saying smart phones and tablets are gonna usurp handhelds has made me overly negative towards their future. Or maybe I'm on the right track and they're done in a couple years, I don't know.
Stealth20k
Banned
What from what made you think I was defensive? Its just boring.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Only if Nintendo kept supplies flowing, which is the larger issue imo. For them price drops below 3 figures seem to correlate more with stock clearing and phase out.
Launching in new markets would also help, which is the real reason why PS2 is ahead. If we look at just the nations both have launched, DS slaughters PS2.
About that....did it ever reach the EU shores?
vagabondarts
Member
If the games people actually wanted to play were released in North America those numbers would be higher.
I can only speak for myself but confidence in the North American branch of Nintendo to actually release the games I want to play has never been lower.
I can only speak for myself but confidence in the North American branch of Nintendo to actually release the games I want to play has never been lower.
Every sales thread you're in you're giving this impression. And if it's boring why did you bother to reply? just ignore it like most other people ...
Snowden's Secret
Banned
And we have Anihawk on the first page calling Pokemon irrelevant lol.
Anyway, this may have already been suggested, but couldn't anemic 3DS sales be due to the impending release of the XL? In Japan at least, it looks like 3DS hardware is depressed maybe by as much as 20% since the announcement.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
This is simply not true. Iphones and iPads aren't a luxury or status symbol anymore. Iphones were that years ago but now they've become super common. You can buy them at Walmart here in the U.S.
How so? That's a bolder claim than my 'handhelds are dooomed in two years'. Clearly iOS and Android gaming are big now and the more time people spend with smartphones the less they'll spend with handhelds.
Ask yourself: Can the handheld market continue to grow or has it peaked? What happens when something peaks? It starts declining. Now answer that same question about iOS and Android gaming.
We should hopefully find out if this is true or not in next week's data.
Not possible. They'd need an aggressive price strategy and even then it would be hard to fight against flashcards.
Sony and Microsoft are far, far better ahead than Nintendo in regards to making games more accessible in emerging markets. For example, here in Brazil it's easy to find new or 6-month old PS3 and 360 games for 2/3rds the price of launch-window 3DS games.
Their best chance at becoming competitive is the retail DD games: the cards can be easily "printed" locally so they could completely avoid most (if not all) import taxes.
Explain Japan then. They have had phones capable of playing cheap advanced games for years before the iPhone was even conceived and somehow still buy handheld consoles in droves. What gives?
Stealth20k
Banned
hardly
The thing is, we have the numbers for the industry and it only takes some trend analysis to make a rough estimate of what one possible state of the market in the near future will look like. By saying that the handheld market has reached its peak, are you predicting YoY drops of handheld hardware and software sales starting sometime soon, like during the next quarter, next year, in two years? Or are you saying that based on looking at all past generations of handhelds? Are you saying that this handheld generation cycle will be significantly shorter than all past generations, and if so, by how much do you think that would be? I don't mean to be a jerk about it, but I think if talking about sales, you do need to have at least some metric to use, otherwise it's all just vague hand-waving analysis which is not really useful.
Not sure, sorry. I dont see why its wouldn't.
Yea, a super common, $299 subsidized smartphone and a $399 tablet aren't luxury....
Especially in economic times where a lot of people don't have money to spend on them, yet they do. Why? Because they're the premiere luxury items in the States. It really can't be argued.
And you're forgetting my comment about a very fickle population. Just as quickly you believe dedicated handhelds are declining, this new fad, known as smartphones and tablets, can as well.
Can dedicated handhelds rise? I can't predict that. Neither can you.
Can smartphones and tablets continue to rise? I can't predict that.
Neither can you.
It's all about what the population's flavor of the month is.
Interesting results. DS had already taken off by its second Q1 where the 3DS is clearly treading water, it'll be interesting to see whether the XL+NSMB can push the 3DS to similar levels or higher. Next few months will be telling, Nintendo might want to squeeze out a price drop before the Wii U launch depending on the results.
Stealth20k
Banned
No it hadnt. The 3ds is still outpacing it.
Like iwata said it took the ds 2+ years to stabalize.
Lord_Byron28
Member
I think he means he has visited japan every year for the past 4 years. Lol.
Stealth20k
Banned
Like with sony, microsoft and most other game companies nobody is praising the losses. It isnt a good thing.
But there are silver linings which would make one think its a temporary thing.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
Explain Japan's console sales. Why is that market in such decline over there yet selling much better in NA and Europe? Japan is an anomaly and shouldn't be used in comparisons like this.
Based on your posts, I'm guessing you don't live in the U.S. The iPhone is not a premiere luxury item in the U.S., period. Nor is it $299:
http://www.walmart.com/ip/Apple-iPh...ligible-upgrade-with-2-year-contract/13082132
They're very common now and have been for a while. Any other American can back me up on that.
How are smartphones and tablets a fad? I don't even know how to respond to that.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
No. Just...no.
Lord_Byron28
Member
I don't think fad is the appropriate word. However in 5-10 years smartphones will likely be replaced by something else much like lg phones, blackberrys, and palm pilots were big 5-10 years ago. Tablets will likely take longer to be replaced as I don't think they're close to reaching their peak yet.
Japan is an anomaly because it doesn't fit your argument and thus needs to be ignored.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
Why? He was using Japan as proof as to why smartphone/tablet gaming isn't booming. I replied by mentioning console gaming being almost dead over there yet the opposite outside of Japan? Seems reasonable to say Japan isn't a good indicator of these things.
And you think handhelds will still be around then? Come on...
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