Man, there will be at least another Nintendo dedicated handheld within 5/10 years. It's a no brain to predict it.
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Nintendo announces Q1 results - $220 Million Quarterly Loss, 1.86M 3DS
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Barack Lesnar
Banned
I don't agree, especially with the latter end of that range. I also believe this will be the last dedicated console generation, but that's another story.
The figures are in the OP for you to compare.
That 3DS to DS comparison wont hold water for much longer. The DS had a slow start (partially because the GBA was still selling a lot - the DS is providing much less competition to the 3DS) but at a similar point in its life to where the 3DS is now its going to steam forward. NSMB2 + XL need to do some serious work for the 3DS to keep ahead. Even in Japan the 3DS is nowhere close to the DS once it starts taking off.
And the DS had taken off by Holiday 2005 (one year) in Japan and June 2006 (19 months) elsewhere.
Please tell me, will Euro be around in 5-10 years? I want to know where to invest my money.
Why do you keep leaving the iPad out of this.? Just because many people have one, doesn't mean that its not a luxury.
And yes, I'm here in good old Maryland.
Like someone else said, Blackberries were the shit a few years back. I bet no one back then could've predicted the smartphone and tablet boom.
Who's to say something else won't rise and take it's place?
The point wasn't to "proof" wheter smartphones/tablets are booming or not. The point is that smartphone/tablet gaming isn't automatically guaranteed to obliterate other forms of gaming into oblivion "just because".
In that territory there are factors at play that make people still see value in gaming handhelds. If smartphones/tablets were complete supersets of dedicated handheld gaming, this wouldn't happen.
specialguy
Banned
How are they losing money if:
3DS is break even
DS massively profitable hardware
Ditto Wii
All the software...
3DS is break even
DS massively profitable hardware
Ditto Wii
All the software...
Research and Development and manufacturing for Wii-U and 3DS XL.
Jaded Alyx
Member
Because running a company also costs money. You have to pay people and everything.
3DS only now is breaking even, still making a loss in Q1, which this report is based on, also
the Yen.
DS has already reached its peak. 3DS is just getting started. Sales are ramping up.
I agree that the handheld market this gen will probably end up being smaller than last gen. I doubt 3DS+PSV will reach the same mark that DS+PSP did. However, you're reeeeally overstating the effect of smartphones, and apparently ignoring Japan, the one region where 3DS is already enjoying success.
/didn't read the rest of the thread
Sho_Nuff82
Member
Smartphone gaming became a thing once everyone upgraded from Blackberry and Bejeweled. The biggest blow was the almost complete loss of a market for games like $30 Tetris on dedicated handhelds - consumers now expect simple games like this to be .99-$4.99 at most.
They just reached the break-even point with the 3DS this month. Any profits seen from the hardware would be reflected in the next 3 month fiscal report.
DS sales are trash. Software sales are down YoY for every piece of hardware sans 3DS, which has a lower attach rate than either of their previous handhelds.
NSMB2, the 3DSXL (cheaper hardware at higher price), and the Wii U launch will be huge for Nintendo turning back towards profitability.
They just reached the break-even point with the 3DS this month. Any profits seen from the hardware would be reflected in the next 3 month fiscal report.
DS sales are trash. Software sales are down YoY for every piece of hardware sans 3DS, which has a lower attach rate than either of their previous handhelds.
NSMB2, the 3DSXL (cheaper hardware at higher price), and the Wii U launch will be huge for Nintendo turning back towards profitability.
Shit, now this is a good question. We need more GAF analysts working on this one.
Captain Smoker
Member
One of the problem about this discussion is that people never talk about the problems of smartphones and tablets, the only "arguments" they ever bring up is "the market is growing", true, but not that convincing if you ask me.
Stealth20k
Banned
But right now they do compare.
The 3ds had a slow start too if you didnt notice
And you might not remember but when the 3ds came out the ds and psp were providing heavy competition, now you include smart phones
and it STILL sold more.
And if the 3ds doesnt eventually sell more than the ds, is it a failure? does it matter?
not really
No hardware sales ever are probablyu going to reach 150 million again, ask sony how that went with the ps3
Stealth20k
Banned
I dont think thats true at all, your still seeing games like tetris on dedicated systems.
Snowden's Secret
Banned
Not sure that's the language I would use to lend credibility to my claims lol.
Where they're supposed to be?
NA shipment:
- 3DS: 420k
- DS: 400k
Japan:
- 3DS: 920k
- DS: 10k
Others:
- 3DS: 530k
- DS: 130k
If nobody is buying DS elsewhere, there's not much Nintendo can do. =P
GameplayWhore
Member
I've been keeping this sheet for fun here and there. It only covers this generation. (and the yearly tab needs to be updated)
You can go to Nintendo's yearly index for earnings data since y2k.
For some reason, and while I should have been doing other stuff, I created a tab in that sheet which is a collation of Nintendo's cash, current assets and total assets from March 2000 up until now. It's pretty bad in some respects, though I have no idea how to calculate how much of that is due to the economy, and how much of it is due to Nintendo. It is interesting to note that they have not been nearly this low on Cash during this entire millennium, and that they are basically at the same point in Total Assets as they were just before the Wii came out.
metalslimer
Member
Pokemon will ensure Nintendo being able to release a viable handheld in the west and Japan will make it extremely profitable. Trying to ignore japan and saying handhelds will be irrelevant is insanely stupid imo.
I'm thinking New Super Mario Brothers 2 and Pokemon Black & White 2.
Exterminieren
Banned
Even if this is true (and, in fairness, I certainly don't think 3DS will reach DS heights)... how on Earth does that translate as 3DS being dead in the water? Christ alone knows that a console can be successful and profitable without hitting those sorts of highs.
Is it impossible to see a future with handhelds filling a smaller yet profitable niche?
They need to really fix this. I don't see this equaling out in the future either. I wouldn't be surprised if the gap widened.
I also still question the impact NSMB2 will have. It will be big but not at as big as some are expecting.
Canis lupus
Member
Hope that will be a Gameboy, missed them.
MidnightScott
Banned
The problem with 3DS in the west is that we don't have software flowing like in Japan with their constant releases. Nintendo really needs to have worldwide launches of their games planned from the start.
I guess it was smart that I imported a JP 3DS because a lot of games won't make it here. Project X Zone looks cool but I can't help but think it will be localized eventually.
I guess it was smart that I imported a JP 3DS because a lot of games won't make it here. Project X Zone looks cool but I can't help but think it will be localized eventually.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
And those kinds of games are never going to be system sellers as traditional retail games, since there are literally hundreds of cheaper alternatives.
Nintendo's release philosophy has almost always erred on the side of conservative. They will "wait and see" on any title that may not have a guaranteed audience in the West (which has the effect of dampening excitement for these titles if people give up on them being translated), and I'm convinced they stagger releases to buff up certain fiscal quarters.
majortom1981
Member
People should keep in mind the value of the yen is a BIG factor in this. If you made the yen worth the same instead of worth more vs the dollar, nintendo would actually have a net profit.
Plus what they took in for the quater is more then the same quater last year. So if you account for wii u research and the value of the yen you can see the figures. Nintendos problem has nothing to do with the wii stinks. They announced the Wii U too early (vs when the hardware launches) so now nobody will buy a new wii when their is a new console coming out.
Plus what they took in for the quater is more then the same quater last year. So if you account for wii u research and the value of the yen you can see the figures. Nintendos problem has nothing to do with the wii stinks. They announced the Wii U too early (vs when the hardware launches) so now nobody will buy a new wii when their is a new console coming out.
metalslimer
Member
Nobody was going to buy the Wii anyway. Software schedule has been dry as hell.It is important to note how badly the yen difference is hurting them though.
bigtroyjon
Member
They had an operating loss without even factoring in the currency losses and the Euro is the big issue, not the dollar.
Actually their revenue was down from the same quarter last year. R&D was also down, so WiiU research really didn't have anything to do with it.
iOS is really eating into Nintendo's market. They need to create some innovative titles besides their obvious sequels of Pokemon and Mario if they want to get the Art Academy, Brain Training, and Wii Fit crowd back on board. I don't think that simple sequels will do it for that audience.
Yet with nary an ad about iOS gaming apparently, the iPad tops the most wanted lists for kids 6-12...
iPad mini alone will be crazy high on the list.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Are there any software LTDs? I always find those more interesting.
GameplayWhore
Member
That will appear here: http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/sales/software/index.html
We'll probably see it updated tomorrow.
Also: http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2012/120725_2e.pdf (from http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/earnings/index.html )
But that only gives numbers for Pokémon Black 2 and White 2 (2.42m in Japan, 0.03m elsewhere).
Lord_Byron28
Member
The comparison isn't even similar. iPhones/Droids(smartphones) in 5-10 years will be replaced by something else. Cell phone technology is still rapidly evolving.
With dedicated handhelds your talking about a section of the market completely erasing. When I say Smartphones will be replaced in 5-10 years that's like saying the 3DS will be replaced by a succesor. Maybe not neccesarily, Nintendo, but I believe a market for dedicated gaming handhelds will still be around. It's common sense that smartphones will eventually be replaced by something newer and better just like our current dedicated gaming handhelds will be replaced in 5-10 years by something better.
Nintendo, especially NOA should be actively working with 3rd parties to bring a steady stream of content and create a healthy software environment. Take some cues from NOE.
ryūkotsusei
Member
DAREALGUMMY
Member
Find out how much they are WITHOUT that 2 year contract needed for that price. Hell, a new Ipod touch is 200 and that's without it being a phone.
You can't really use the Vita as an example of the handheld market going away based on the fact that the software is the main issue with it's slow sales. You might say it's the price but everyone knows if it had that killer title, it would pick up in sales. Although I definitely don't agree that handhelds will be gone in 5 years, I will say that the following months will truly be the test for it. Nintendo is coming out with a lot of titles (NSMB2, Luigi's Mansion, Paper Mario) so we'll really find out if people are interested in the handheld market or not.
Moreover, it goes against Nintendo's own core principles in designing handhelds (I.E: battery life).
Reminds me of the GBA vs DS sales in the Western market.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
There is already an iPad mini on the market, it is called the iPod Touch.
I think the main problem of the 3DS in the West is the software. In Japan the list of games which are released every month is amazing, and the future is very bright.
In the US and Europe obviously it isn't so great. Who knows, maybe now that they are profitable, they start doing the things better.
In the US and Europe obviously it isn't so great. Who knows, maybe now that they are profitable, they start doing the things better.
3DS is getting impacted hard in the US too by NOA not killing off the DS. Half of Nintendo Handheld sales each month are basically DS and the other half 3DS. NOA is keeping the DS on too long and would probably see 3DS dales become much better with the DS line axed
Lord_Byron28
Member
The US should start doing better with Kingdom Hearts releasing soon then NSMB2 & XL. After that there seems to be a steady release schedule. Unlike the first half of 2012 which was spotty.
Good to see Nintendo righting the ship, if the expected losses were worse. I still don't understand entirely how they can have their biggest hit devices (Wii and DS) still in use, along with "evergreen titles" that sell at full price even though they're not new, AND still get a loss, but I guess that 3DS price cut was pretty extreme. Maybe the Wii U R&D was high too?
I think the importance of smart phones went from understated to completely overrated. Many don't use them to game. Or if they do, they'll only check out a couple pop-culture games for a buck, and quickly move on. In fact, maybe a few get hooked for the first time and actually look for deeper gameplay experiences? Kind of a gaming gateway drug, the way Brain Age and Wii Sports were. "Because of Angry Birds, I'll buy a DS since I now realize I love gaming!"
But I don't think many "gamers" permanently gave up on handhelds, as the button-less and inexpensive experiences - at least for the time being - can only do so much. And "complex" games, the graphically intensive ones, drain the battery pretty damn quick. While that's true of any device, that matters more when you're also depending on that device to do other things such as make calls, play music, screw around Facebook, etc.
Smart phones are sort of a 3rd pillar at the moment, along with console gaming and true portable gaming. There's the ability for them to eventually take over, sure. But there's also the ability for that ecosystem to crash, such as Zynga's recent stock plummet... Along with the realization that $1 games really have to sell TONS of copies in order for them to net the same profit a traditional handheld game "hit" would. Anyway predictions aside, maybe smart phones are eating up the portable share little by little (or a lot by lot), but its nowhere near taking over yet.
Someone earlier predicted the 3DS will be Nintendo's last handheld. I don't think so. In fact, looking at the Japanese trend... If I were to make a crazy prediction, I'd lean toward the opposite. Consoles are sputtering out and I think it would be more likely for Nintendo to stop making dedicated consoles down the line.
Maybe not next gen, but eventually, I think Nintendo handhelds will be playable on the TV and become their "console experiences." The Wii U is almost an indication that this direction is sneaking in already. Suddenly console games can be streamed wirelessly to a portable-like controller. What if their portable games in the future could be streamed wirelessly to the television?
I think the importance of smart phones went from understated to completely overrated. Many don't use them to game. Or if they do, they'll only check out a couple pop-culture games for a buck, and quickly move on. In fact, maybe a few get hooked for the first time and actually look for deeper gameplay experiences? Kind of a gaming gateway drug, the way Brain Age and Wii Sports were. "Because of Angry Birds, I'll buy a DS since I now realize I love gaming!"
But I don't think many "gamers" permanently gave up on handhelds, as the button-less and inexpensive experiences - at least for the time being - can only do so much. And "complex" games, the graphically intensive ones, drain the battery pretty damn quick. While that's true of any device, that matters more when you're also depending on that device to do other things such as make calls, play music, screw around Facebook, etc.
Smart phones are sort of a 3rd pillar at the moment, along with console gaming and true portable gaming. There's the ability for them to eventually take over, sure. But there's also the ability for that ecosystem to crash, such as Zynga's recent stock plummet... Along with the realization that $1 games really have to sell TONS of copies in order for them to net the same profit a traditional handheld game "hit" would. Anyway predictions aside, maybe smart phones are eating up the portable share little by little (or a lot by lot), but its nowhere near taking over yet.
Someone earlier predicted the 3DS will be Nintendo's last handheld. I don't think so. In fact, looking at the Japanese trend... If I were to make a crazy prediction, I'd lean toward the opposite. Consoles are sputtering out and I think it would be more likely for Nintendo to stop making dedicated consoles down the line.
Maybe not next gen, but eventually, I think Nintendo handhelds will be playable on the TV and become their "console experiences." The Wii U is almost an indication that this direction is sneaking in already. Suddenly console games can be streamed wirelessly to a portable-like controller. What if their portable games in the future could be streamed wirelessly to the television?
twothunder
Member
Well. About the 3DS breaking even / selling for profit....
From Gamesutra:
"Update: Due to a misinterpretation, the original version of this story erroneously reported that Nintendo is no longer selling the 3DS at a loss versus its manufacturing cost. The story has been updated to fix this error. "
It now says:
"It also noted that, while it is still selling the 3DS at a loss, that margin is improving."
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/174700/Nintendos_losses_narrow_as_3DS_margins_improve.php
metalslimer
Member
Pretty incredible that they are still selling at loss. I guess everyone who kept insisting Nintendo were being extremely greedy with the 250 pricetag were wrong.
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