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Nintendo full year financial results [23.2B yen loss, 3.6M Wii U/12M 3DS forecast]

TriGen

Member
Rösti;110968966 said:
Is there any interest in a bingo card for the investor presentation tomorow? I did one for the QOL presentation.

Sure. Interesting info came out last time -- so I'd say this is meaningful enough.
 

heidern

Junior Member
I'm not sure Iwata's covered himself in glory on that side of things either. It's literally only now that he's starting to acknowledge the Wii U has a problem that can't be fixed with a few more sequels and some clearer marketing.

Hardware cycles are 5 years. Hardware and software development cycles are 2 - 5 years. It's only 1.5 years into the Wii U life cycle. There's limits to what he can do. More price cuts would increase the losses. He can't magic games up out of nowhere. He probably wouldn't be able to convince Activision to make Destiny a Wii U exclusive.

While QOL is certainly a change in strategy, is it really that massive a change if Nintendo is still focused on catching lightning in a bottle again?

That's the whole point. Massive change is already built into Nintendo's philosophy so they automatically deal with any difficulties. The alternative would be modest change and that would be seen as weak and not reacting and give less results. Although, the 'modest changes' are being done as well with things like a unified OS, changes to the software pricing model and licensing their characters out.
 
Hardware cycles are 5 years. Hardware and software development cycles are 2 - 5 years. It's only 1.5 years into the Wii U life cycle. There's limits to what he can do. More price cuts would increase the losses. He can't magic games up out of nowhere. He probably wouldn't be able to convince Activision to make Destiny a Wii U exclusive.
You seem to be set on ignoring his repeated (read: didn't learn a damn thing year after year) failed promises to shareholders.
 
A high budget 2015 release when the WiiU is in even worse shape? They are not going to cannibalize Hyrule Warriors.

I'm 90% sure the next real Zelda will be at E3 and for the Wii U.

The only reason I think this is because they said it and they've had shit sales before and they don't listen to messageboard analysts.
 
Hardware cycles are 5 years. Hardware and software development cycles are 2 - 5 years. It's only 1.5 years into the Wii U life cycle. There's limits to what he can do. More price cuts would increase the losses. He can't magic games up out of nowhere. He probably wouldn't be able to convince Activision to make Destiny a Wii U exclusive.

So what did you mean when you said how the important thing was how he reacted to his mistakes? If Iwata is all but powerless to act until the next hardware generation, then surely it doesn't particularly matter how he reacts to his mistakes, as he's going to be stuck with them for five years no matter what.
 
Exactly! And health initiatives are a dime a dozen.

Yeah, while we know very little about what QOL actually is, it seems reasonable to conclude from Iwata's comments that it's founded on the notion that there's still an untapped blue ocean in the health/lifestyle market.

That seems extremely dubious, to put it mildly.
 

Snakeyes

Member
I also think that people who expect Nintendo to significantly dial back Wii U software development have missed Iwata's comments about their next handheld absorbing the Wii U's architecture. No matter how poorly the Wii U is doing, everything they invest into the system now will pay off on their future hardware. At worst, Wii U software will be developed with their next handheld's capabilities in mind (less CPU-intensive games, for instance).

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the Wii U itself was at least partially designed for a smoother transition into their revamped hardware platform.
 

Salex_

Member
So many people gleeful at the prospect of one of the best, if not the best software developer in the industry doing bad.

If Nintendo ever leaves videogames I hope all of you enjoy playing the same yearly garbage franchises that are bound to come out.

I wonder if he realizes how ridiculous this comment was, especially after the announcement of the yearly Pokemon game. Of course there's other examples of yearly titles that Nintendo releases, but yeah, it's better to call non-Nintendo games that are released yearly garbage.

In response to someone not worshiping the holy 20 year old Nintendo IPs
Yes we all know you have no taste in games. You don't need to keep reminding us.



I really don't understand how some people are strapping themselves to Nintendo's nipples and saying shit like this...
 

heidern

Junior Member
So what did you mean when you said how the important thing was how he reacted to his mistakes? If Iwata is all but powerless to act until the next hardware generation, then surely it doesn't particularly matter how he reacts to his mistakes, as he's going to be stuck with them for five years no matter what.

The reaction is in regards to how the next hardware differs to the current underperforming ones. There's also the possibility of reacting outside the current platforms and he's done that with the QOL. The reaction with both of those has already started in terms of development of new hardware but we won't start seeing the actual results till next year. So it's too early to judge really.
 
I thought the investor meeting was today 5/7?

Apologies if this has been previously mentioned, but does anyone know when the investors' meeting takes place?


Nintendo Q4 Investor Presentation + Q&A

05/07/14 / 09:00 PM EDT

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Nintendo E3 Digital Event

06/10/14 / 12:00 PM EDT

t1402416000z1.png



Iwata's Potential Election to the Board of Directors

Thursday, June 26th, 2014
 
I also think that people who expect Nintendo to significantly dial back Wii U software development have missed Iwata's comments about their next handheld absorbing the Wii U's architecture. No matter how poorly the Wii U is doing, everything they invest into the system now will pay off on their future hardware. At worst, Wii U software will be developed with their next handheld's capabilities in mind.

I don't think the architecture will be the same, but the tools to build games in house will allow porting to be smooth/simple. Basically a in house Unity that allows the content to be compiled for whatever target hardware they need.
 

jcm

Member
You seem to be set on ignoring his repeated (read: didn't learn a damn thing year after year) failed promises to shareholders.

Here's the record of those promises. This is not a company who knows which way the wind blows.

Code:
Forecast    May 7 2009     490
Revised    Oct 29 2009     370
Actual                     356

Forecast    May 6 2010     320
Revised    Sep 29 2010     210
Actual                     171

Forecast   Apr 25 2011     175
Revised    Jul 28 2011      35
Revised    Oct 27 2011       1
Revised    Jan 26 2012     (45)
Actual                     (37)

Forecast   Apr 26 2012      35
Revised    Oct 24 2012      20
Revised    Jan 30 2013     (20)
Actual                     (36)

Forecast   Apr 24 2013     100
Revised    Jan 17 2014     (35)
Actual                     (46)
 

Guevara

Member
Here's the record of those promises. This is not a company who knows which way the wind blows.

Code:
Forecast    May 7 2009     490
Revised    Oct 29 2009     370
Actual                     356

Forecast    May 6 2010     320
Revised    Sep 29 2010     210
Actual                     171

Forecast   Apr 25 2011     175
Revised    Jul 28 2011      35
Revised    Oct 27 2011       1
Revised    Jan 26 2012     (45)
Actual                     (37)

Forecast   Apr 26 2012      35
Revised    Oct 24 2012      20
Revised    Jan 30 2013     (20)
Actual                     (36)

Forecast   Apr 24 2013     100
Revised    Jan 17 2014     (35)
Actual                     (46)
Literally lol. An aggregation of Sales-age GAF predictions would probably do better.
 

Chindogg

Member
I wonder if he realizes how ridiculous this comment was, especially after the announcement of the yearly Pokemon game. Of course there's other examples of yearly titles that Nintendo releases, but yeah, it's better to call non-Nintendo games that are released yearly garbage.

In response to someone not worshiping the holy 20 year old Nintendo IPs

I really don't understand how some people are strapping themselves to Nintendo's nipples and saying shit like this...

Yeah he goes way too far, its kinda frustrating to enjoy Nintendo games and being looped in with comments like this.

That said, calling the a remake after a new series in consecutive years for the first time ever for the series as "yearly titles" is a bit much. Nintendo's desperate for releases and people have wanted a remake of what many are considering the best Pokemon generation.

Come to think of it, can you list any Nintendo franchise that literally had yearly iterations on the same hardware?
 

mo60

Member
I'm not to worried about nintendo's future. The numbers look bad because it's a result of poor planning for both the 3ds and WiiU by both the board at Nintendo and to an extent the CEO(Iwata). Better planned products will sell better. The 3ds will sell well,but not amazing at the end of the 8th gen and I don't really care how much the WiiU sells at the end of the day. I do enjoy the games I have for the console so far.I do not think firing Iwata will fix much with Nintendo right now anyway.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
One whole year in advance? I highly doubt it. The Wii was supposed to tank and burn.

Was it? I think you'd find a diversity of opinions in the immediate run-up to the launch of the Wii; most of the bewildered dismissiveness came in response to the original unveil but the E3 performance definitely made some converts.
 

AniHawk

Member
Come to think of it, can you list any Nintendo franchise that literally had yearly iterations on the same hardware?

mario party was it for a while (i think there was one from 1999-2005). then they stopped when the wii got big. after the wii's sales started to sag, suddenly mario sports came back with a vengeance. really weird how that happened. i mean think about it, no mario tennis or mario golf on the wii (aside from the gamecube rereleases), but there were those games on the 3ds.
 
He can't magic games up out of nowhere.

he's taking the strongest and clearest possible action he could take with the QOL.

The strongest possible action would be to have had a winning strategy to begin with, including more titles. Since he didn't do that, the other strongest and clearest reaction that could have been taken would have been to react quickly to market conditions, admitting they had a problem sooner, and engaged on a proactive plan to adapt. None of these things happened.

Pulling the plug on Wii U will destroy their reputation and massively increase the chance of failure of any future hardware they release. Doubling down on it would do the opposite. Taking a 50 year view rather than a 5 year view it's clear that they should just continue as planned with Wii U, perhaps taking some risks with software.

NO, NO, NO. They have to act now. The reputation is quite poor now with retail, the dev and pub community, and with disengaged fans. Doubling down on this would be the worst thing that could be done. And they don't have 50 years. They're bleeding cash. Just so much wrong with what you're saying.

I appreciate your loyalty, but what you're proposing would be the absolute worst plan they could go forward with.
 

takriel

Member
Zelda U is still a thing. It's clear that they have some awesome ideas in mind for the GamePad utilisation. It will be revealed at E3. Believe!
 
Updating some graphs I've maintained out of boredom.

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Just a continued trend of year-over-year declines in hardware and software for both of their core markets. They're already projecting a further decline in handheld next year, which I think will be even steeper than they've projected since the trend for the (calendar) year is already quite low, and a slight rebound in home console, which I guess we'll have to see if it will materialize. I personally don't think it will, but then, perhaps some heavy bundling/discounting with Mario Kart and Smash Brothers might help a little bit.

Much thanks for the awesome graphs. They really highlight how much of an outlier Wii was in their home console offerings.
 
One whole year in advance? I highly doubt it. The Wii was supposed to tank and burn.

What I find amusing is when they revise estimates after Q3 and still miss. They're entering a slow season, most of the sales are behind them, and they still miss guidance.

Think about it, they adjusted the forecast for 3DS just 3 months ago to 13.5 million. They came in at 12.24 million. But they were sitting at 11.65 million when they amended the forecast! So of the 1.85 million they projected to ship in the final quarter, they shipped only 0.59 million, or 32%. They were 68% off, entering a slow quarter, with retailer orders presumably already in the system.

Either they're bad at forecasts, or maybe they're just lying. Take your pick.
 

Salex_

Member
Yeah he goes way too far, its kinda frustrating to enjoy Nintendo games and being looped in with comments like this.

That said, calling the a remake after a new series in consecutive years for the first time ever for the series as "yearly titles" is a bit much. Nintendo's desperate for releases and people have wanted a remake of what many are considering the best Pokemon generation.

Come to think of it, can you list any Nintendo franchise that literally had yearly iterations on the same hardware?
I probably used the wrong words there. I can't think of any consistent yearly Nintendo game on the same platform off the top of my head, but there are times where they release a new game in a franchise every year. Like Kirby, Pokemon, and Mario.

The thing I was highlighting is how he views Nintendo as some demigod of gaming and other companies are automatically inferior and make yearly garbage games.

It's fine to enjoy Nintendo games (I do as well, I'm buying a Wii U for Smash Bros), but there's no need to act the way he does about Nintendo.
 
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