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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th

Well, well, well.

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https://twitter.com/aarongreenberg/status/670747742424072192
Meh, I wanted more shade like last year.
 

Vena

Member
I'm not saying, and never said they were accurate...I replied to someone who specifically asked if Infoscout would be sharing a black friday analysis...and I shared what they published...

Oh I was just putting a descriptive footer onto the InfoScout data, I wasn't actually challenging what you said.

Have we heard anything on Battlefront performance yet? I'm still left on GameStop's underperformance metric and no word from EA/elsewhere to say the opposite. Or has this changed?
 

allan-bh

Member
I honestly don't think most people who were shopping for an Xbox One on Black Friday cared whether or not it was 500 gigs or 1 tb. Priority was most likely price, then game included, then maybe specs.

People that have price as top priority (the majority) bought Gears or Lego bundle, but some people that was looking for Fallout, Tomb Raider, Holiday or Kinect bundle probably waited BF.
 

Fat4all

Banned
People that have price as top priority (the majority) bought Gears or Lego bundle, but some people that was looking for Fallout, Tomb Raider, Holiday or Kinect bundle probably waited BF.

Wouldn't those shoppers wait for Black Friday regardless?

This seems like a very narrow slice of people that we know nothing about.

Heck, some of them probably thought the PS4 Star Wars Bundle is on sale if around a month ago they looked at it and saw it was originally gonna be $400.


Knockout punch. Ouch.
 

allan-bh

Member
I'm not saying, and never said they were accurate...I replied to someone who specifically asked if Infoscout would be sharing a black friday analysis...and I shared what they published...

Never saw data that dismiss Infoscout report.

Last year they saw a huge lead for Xbox One and people questioned, then NPD came and the advantage was... huge.

I know that NPD is the full month and Infoscout is only BF, but still, considering how BF is big for november sounded that Infoscout was accurate.
 

Loris146

Member
Never saw data that dismiss Infoscout report.

Last year they saw a huge lead for Xbox One and people questioned, then NPD came and the advantage was... huge.

I know that NPD is the full month and Infoscout is only BF, but still, considering how BF is big for november sounded that Infoscout was accurate.

XB1 sold great the entire month . The unity bundle was at 349 $ since November 2. There was a huge difference in value with the PS4 for all the month.
 

allan-bh

Member
Wouldn't those shoppers wait for Black Friday regardless?

This seems like a very narrow slice of people that we know nothing about.

Heck, some of them probably thought the PS4 Star Wars Bundle is on sale if around a month ago they looked at it and saw it was originally gonna be $400.

In case of PS4 they didn't had a reason to wait because Sony doesn't changed the price, so there's a clearly difference in this regard.

PS4 can have won BF, but for Xbox One sales are likely more concentrated in BF and more spread out between the models because all SKUs received price cut.
 

Behlel

Member
In case of PS4 they didn't had a reason to wait because Sony doesn't changed the price, so there's a clearly difference in this regard.

PS4 can have won BF, but for Xbox One sales are likely more concentrated in BF and more spread out between the models because all SKUs received price cut.

And so all the Bundle for PS4 have recived a price cut 50$ less for all bundle (the old one at 399 now at 349 except the Uncharted one that is at 299$ until Cyber Monday).
 

Fat4all

Banned
In case of PS4 they didn't had a reason to wait because Sony doesn't changed the price, so there's a clearly difference in this regard.

PS4 can have won BF, but for Xbox One sales are likely more concentrated in BF and more spread out between the models because all SKUs received price cut.

I just don't see what an across the board $50 price drop would of accomplished but match similarly priced PS4 bundles. I just don't think people are paying that much attention until the week of Black Friday.
 

mejin

Member
XB1 sold great the entire month . The unity bundle was at 349 $ since November 2. There was a huge difference in value with the PS4 for all the month.

That's why this year we had PS4 selling better all month and probably took BF too = price within the same range as XB1.
 

allan-bh

Member
XB1 sold great the entire month . The unity bundle was at 349 $ since November 2. There was a huge difference in value with the PS4 for all the month.

I know, so probably sold more on black friday too and we know BF is a big part of november, but some people doubted of Infoscout.

We don't have any data for questioning Infoscout's reliability.
 
I know, so probably sold more on black friday too and we know BF is a big part of november, but some people doubted of Infoscout.

We don't have any data for questioning Infoscout's reliability.


Since their tracking comes from people taking images from receipts, I assume they aren't tracking online sales? Or can people screencap online purchases too?
 

Loris146

Member
I know, so probably sold more on black friday too and we know BF is a big part of november, but some people doubted of Infoscout.

We don't have any data for questioning Infoscout's reliability.

Yep. I hope we'll get PR this week from Sony/MS and N.
 

Fat4all

Banned
I'm more interested in hearing from Activision and EA about sales records for Cod/BF.

If this Black Friday caused either game to hit major milestones, are we likely to hear a statement next week?
 

allan-bh

Member
I'm more interested in hearing from Activision and EA about sales records for Cod/BF.

If this Black Friday caused either game to hit major milestones, are we likely to hear a statement next week?

Black Ops III isn't capable of beating previous records and I don't think Battlefront is doing so hot.
 
I'm more interested in hearing from Activision and EA about sales records for Cod/BF.

If this Black Friday caused either game to hit major milestones, are we likely to hear a statement next week?

EA doesn't give out sales numbers and I highly doubt that the Battlefront numbers were as good as they were expecting.
 
I'm predicting star wars, star wars, star wars, star wars, star wars, star wars, star wars, star wars, star wars, star wars, star wars, star wars, star wars, star wars, star wars, star wars and then more star wars.
 

Somnia

Member
XB1 sold great the entire month . The unity bundle was at 349 $ since November 2. There was a huge difference in value with the PS4 for all the month.

In case of PS4 they didn't had a reason to wait because Sony doesn't changed the price, so there's a clearly difference in this regard.

PS4 can have won BF, but for Xbox One sales are likely more concentrated in BF and more spread out between the models because all SKUs received price cut.

I think you guys are forgetting the deals MS ran throughout this month. The insane deal at the beginning with COD, at gamestop you got a free game of your choice and an extra controller other retailers were offering free game of choice + $50 giftcard, etc.

Then they also ran free game of your choice during Battlefront.

I'm not saying these make it win the month or anything, but they saw major spikes in system sales during these promotions.
 
This reeks of desperation to me. Compared to his tweets last year, this feels pretty mild.

I can't stand him. He's one of the worse people working in the industry. Cocky as hell when it's going their way but quiet as hell when it's not. Oh the other guy I can't stand is major Nelson. Good god ms get rid of them and get some better people.
 
So the last two years had about 2m combined PS4/Xone each year. I like the aggressive predictions of 2.5m or 3m+, but are they realistic?

In other news, I know it's unrelated for lots of reasons, but GTAV being on the top of the STEAM charts for the complete length of the sale so far at $35.99. I may have put GTAV too far down on my packaged predictions list.
 
I can't stand him. He's one of the worse people working in the industry. Cocky as hell when it's going their way but quiet as hell when it's not. Oh the other guy I can't stand is major Nelson. Good god ms get rid of them and get some better people.

Um, but they're PR goons. Isn't it their JOB to be cocky when sales are good and sparse they they aren't?
 

Loris146

Member
I think you guys are forgetting the deals MS ran throughout this month. The insane deal at the beginning with COD, at gamestop you got a free game of your choice and an extra controller other retailers were offering free game of choice + $50 giftcard, etc.

Then they also ran free game of your choice during Battlefront.

I'm not saying these make it win the month or anything, but they saw major spikes in system sales during these promotions.

Yep there were good deals but you can't compare them with the Unity bundle at 349$ (when the other console was at 399 without games ,IIRC destiny bundle was at 449 and the GTA bundle was just for BF and went sold out pretty fast ).
 

Somnia

Member
I spike bigger than PS4 with CoD and Battlefront bundles?

The CoD week? Most likely based off what I experienced. The Star Wars week no it most likely didn't. I'm just pointing out that XB1 did sell in major spikes earlier this month too, it's not like they were dead all month or something.
 

Somnia

Member
Yep there were good deals but you can't compare them with the Unity bundle at 349$ (when the other console was at 399 without games ,IIRC destiny bundle was at 449 and the GTA bundle was just for BF and went sold out pretty fast ).

While true in the price difference, were talking about a $349 consoles w/ Gears + a free $60 game + a free $60 controller or $50 giftcard.

All I know is that weekend we sold most of our stock of XB1's. It moved units in crazy numbers.
 

allan-bh

Member
The CoD week? Most likely based off what I experienced. The Star Wars week no it most likely didn't. I'm just pointing out that XB1 did sell in major spikes earlier this month too, it's not like they were dead all month or something.

That's news to me. I thought PS4 sold more in all november weeks until BF.
 

Loris146

Member
The CoD week? Most likely based off what I experienced. The Star Wars week no it most likely didn't. I'm just pointing out that XB1 did sell in major spikes earlier this month too, it's not like they were dead all month or something.

Of course there is a spike in sales in November. Every years there are big releases , price cut , deals , special bundle etc... ( and of course BF).

No one said XB1 was dead this month ( i think ).
 

Javin98

Banned
I can't stand him. He's one of the worse people working in the industry. Cocky as hell when it's going their way but quiet as hell when it's not. Oh the other guy I can't stand is major Nelson. Good god ms get rid of them and get some better people.
But that's part of their job. They make PR statements for a living. Yes, they are cocky, but with a huge loyal fanbase to please, what else can they do? I agree that they should simmer down their ego, though. At the very least, they can be fun to watch.
 

Welfare

Member
So the last two years had about 2m combined PS4/Xone each year. I like the aggressive predictions of 2.5m or 3m+, but are they realistic?

I think the PS4+XB1 should do better this holiday than last. Both of them are at reasonable prices with big name franchises releasing, plus having some great deals during Black Friday, they should do more than the 2.06m done last year.
 

Somnia

Member
That's news to me. I thought PS4 sold more in all november weeks until BF.

We have no knowledge of this in the US as we don't get that data. My statement on that is just anecdotal as Y2Kev said, based off what I've seen sales wise in the district I work for.

Of course there is a spike in sales in November. Every years there are big releases in November , price cut , deals , special bundle etc... ( and of course BF).

No one said XB1 was dead this month ( i think ).

No one said it, I was just pointing out because some people make it sound that way that XB1 sales were mainly all BF in November unlike PS4. In this entire month that I've been helping out sales have been very good for both for sure.
 

Loris146

Member
We have no knowledge of this in the US as we don't get that data. My statement on that is just anecdotal as Y2Kev said, based off what I've seen sales wise in the district I work for.



No one said it, I was just pointing out because some people make it sound that way that XB1 sales were mainly all BF in November unlike PS4. In this entire month that I've been helping out sales have been very good for both for sure.

:) Are you gonna share retail info during December as well ?
 
OfficerRaichu15 and Ryng_Tolu,

The data point of Wii U as the best-selling console on 'Target.com' is irrelevant and doesn't reflect the trends of the broader U.S. Games Industry.

In data reports from The NPD Group, Target.com comprises a very small, almost negligible percentage of the overall dataset.

Target retail stores which do not show a 'Wii U win' in any sense of the term far outweigh their fledgling online services.

It has been reported that online 'Target.com' makes up only 2-3% of total Target sales. And, total Target sales comprise only a minority of the total dataset from The NPD Group.

GameStop and Wal-Mart are by far the most important retailers for The NPD Group's dataset.

Thanks for the insight "NDP-Mulcair". It's very much appreciated.
 
[WIU] 445K
[XB1] 955K
[PS4] 1288K

I think people are forgetting that one of the reasons XBO sold so well last Nov/Dec was because it kinda more or less sold like shit for the rest of that year. MOM it's been doing quite better in 2015 so I think that'll knock out some of the impact they'd otherwise have in Nov/Dec.
 
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