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November 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 6th

Right now, Microsoft engineers are trying to figure out how to bring down the BOM.
A price fight with sony dictating the rules is ugly. Scorpio is still far away and won't help getting all these damn families on board anyway. And those should be the main theme for the upcoming season.
Expecting an XboxOne S Arcade without UHD.

they are doing that all the time.
honestly i see them doing a xbox stick in some years when the chip is in 7nn.
so the stick won't be just a streaming stick, but rather the same xbox one in a very small form facor and without an optical drive.

a stick without optical drive is also easier to market. a console without the blu-ray player could result in backslash or even some confusion.
that stick could maybe be done for $99 or $149 in 3 years.
but maybe i'm wrong and the stick to the console form factor and and just shrink the chip and device
 

RexNovis

Banned
51% drop for CoD. WOW. I was expecting a drop but not that big.

Wowwww that is nuts! guess that's what happens when you pollute the MP with all that randomized loot and MTs. I'm actually surprised that the mass market reacted so strongly against that.

he knows the gap lol

No. no he doesn't. You really have no idea what you're talking about. He knows nothing more than any of the rest of us do.

I think that he should clear his position.
Because he said that he hasn't access anymore to NPD datas but he's definetly making statements with a tone as if he knew something.
Saying things clearly will avoid useless attacking from people who can't discuss in sales threads.

Y'all are clearly reading into things that never actually existed. All he has said has been related to his analysis of publicly available data/insight I.E. the snippets that are available on twitter such as "Wow 3DS sold by the truckload." The only reason you and others seem to be on some sort of crusade against him is that he doesn't believe things are as positive as you want to believe. Develop thicker skin and try actually defending your views instead of attaching someone else for theirs.

Alright, I'm out.

I have a take on the market that isn't popular. I get it. I hope I'm wrong, would love to see growth and everything doing great everywhere.

See you in December, SalesGAF.

EDIT: No drama. It's all good. Happy Holidays all!

:( Don't blame you but your contributions will be missed
 

Kill3r7

Member
Wowwww that is nuts! guess that's what happens when you pollute the MP with all that randomized loot and MTs. I'm actually surprised that the mass market reacted so strongly against that.

Interesting because I think the message that the suits will take from this is that nobody likes mobility and Titanfall lite gameplay not that this is an issue with MTs. So I fully expect if not next year, the year after for sure, we are getting a traditional grounded COD which I think is for the best at this point. Maybe if they will revisit WW2.

Not sure if you have played it but the MP is some of the worst we have seen on COD. I would argue worst than Ghosts.
 
Right now, Microsoft engineers are trying to figure out how to bring down the BOM.
A price fight with sony dictating the rules is ugly. Scorpio is still far away and won't help getting all these damn families on board anyway. And those should be the main theme for the upcoming season.
Expecting an XboxOne S Arcade without UHD.

Can someone tell me how the XB1 is the weaker console yet apparently costs MORE to make? It boggles the mind!
 
Can someone tell me how the XB1 is the weaker console yet apparently costs MORE to make? It boggles the mind!
xbox one has a bigger soc compared to ps4 slim
ps4 has more expensive ram
ps4 has higher volume, so better prices and less fix costs
xbox one s has uhd blu-ray. ps4 does not


ihs-markit made an xbox one s bom breakdown
sadly none for ps4 slim or ps4 pro.
lowest margin right now is the ps4 pro with a very big 16nm ff soc and 1tb hdd for just $399
 
Can someone tell me how the XB1 is the weaker console yet apparently costs MORE to make? It boggles the mind!
XboxOne and PS4 were roundabout on par.
Both had revisions.
One of them became much cheaper to make by making it cheaper and I don't think that's the case with the other that became sexy.
Also economies of scale. It just helps if you put out double the amount of boxes.

But that might be just fan fiction.
 
Can someone tell me how the XB1 is the weaker console yet apparently costs MORE to make? It boggles the mind!

Well, there's UHD capability and the economy of scales. And maybe the different memory solution also makes a difference.

Given that Sony stripped the PS4 Slim's optical output it's save to asume it was designed to be produced as cheap as possible.

So, yeah, technically it's possible. But of course, the actual costs of production are one of the best kept secrets in every business.
 

noshten

Member
Alright, I'm out.

I have a take on the market that isn't popular. I get it. I hope I'm wrong, would love to see growth and everything doing great everywhere.

See you in December, SalesGAF.

EDIT: No drama. It's all good. Happy Holidays all!

People don't like your grim realism but I appreciate it Cosmic you are only talking about things you know and observe.

Some people take sales talk as an attack on their precious video game market rather than the harsh reality. We are going to continue to see decline in SW sales as people spend more and more time on a single title or are far more financially rewarded by waiting for discounts for AAA games rather than continuing pre-order culture. I see this as people finally starting to make informed decisions about the way game pricing works on consoles and platform holders giving plenty of incentives for people going digital. Sadly I expect some big Pubs to just push back by engineering more ways to monetize their games or ips.
 

Elios83

Member
Y'all are clearly reading into things that never actually existed. All he has said has been related to his analysis of publicly available data/insight I.E. the snippets that are available on twitter such as "Wow 3DS sold by the truckload." The only reason you and others seem to be on some sort of crusade against him is that he doesn't believe things are as positive as you want to believe. Develop thicker skin and try actually defending your views instead of attaching someone else for theirs.

First of all don't group people together with ''you all''.
I've never attacked him and I've never been on a crusade against anyone here let alone him that I believe is a resonable person that made positive contributions to this forum.
So what you're saying here quoting me is totally wrong.
I've just said that he made some bold comments in the NPD thread (that he later cancelled/edited) that IMO should have required a big "IMO" to clarify that it was just his opinion. That's really all. He has the right to express his own opinion and others have the right to disagree.
 

Electret

Member
xbox one has a bigger soc compared to ps4 slim
ps4 has more expensive ram
ps4 has higher volume, so better prices and less fix costs
xbox one s has uhd blu-ray. ps4 does not


ihs-markit made an xbox one s bom breakdown
sadly none for ps4 slim or ps4 pro.
lowest margin right now is the ps4 pro with a very big 16nm ff soc and 1tb hdd for just $399

I'd like to see some recent information on this. I'd think by now that GDDR5 costs less than DDR3+ESRAM.
 

onQ123

Member
Can someone tell me how the XB1 is the weaker console yet apparently costs MORE to make? It boggles the mind!



8GB of GDDR5 is mainstream while 32MB of ESRAM on a SoC isn't, then Xbox One also has 8GB of on board flash memory , there was also all the work that went into the custom audio processes & the HDMI input & other little things that didn't translate into Xbox One being a better console vs PS4 to the gamers.
 
according to a windowscentral source xbox one sold 1m and ps4 family 1.1m
ps vr sold 68k
windowscentral.com/xbox-november-sales-1-million
generally those guys are trustworthy.

edit:
if those numbers are correct
ps4 down 29% yoy
xb1 down 23% yoy


cosmic i owe you big.
gimme an avatar i deserve.
i really thought the xbox one s momentum of being up yoy would carry over into the holidays. not at all
 
Nope. I genuinely have never heard of or visited that website before.

okay cool. so you learned something new.
that chief editor daniel rubino gets invited to every single microsoft event. he was one of the first public people who was allowes to test hololens, when it was a tethered device back in january 2015.

when it comes to microsoft, the always have insider information and are mostly right. but this is the first time ever, they report npd numbers. so it seems to be a new source and therefor they dont have a trackrecord for npd leaks. take it with a lil grain of salt.
but they dont report hox
 
according to a windowscentral source xbox one sold 1m and ps4 family 1.1m
ps vr sold 68k
windowscentral.com/xbox-november-sales-1-million
generally those guys are trustworthy.

edit:
if those numbers are correct
ps4 down 29% yoy
xb1 down 23% yoy


cosmic i owe you big.
gimme an avatar i deserve.
i really thought the xbox one s momentum of being up yoy would carry over into the holidays. not at all

No idea if it means these numbers are accurate whatsoever but Aaron Greenberg just Retweeted this article
 

blakep267

Member
Eh if those numbers were to be believed( they are actually close to my prediction) that'd mean that either the pro didn't sell that great or the ps4 slim was destroyed by the S
 

Vena

Member
Eh if those numbers were to be believed( they are actually close to my prediction) that'd mean that either the pro didn't sell that great or the ps4 slim was destroyed by the S

There are far worse implications if those numbers are real for the US market, but it would certainly give context to Queso's previous posts...
 

Sterok

Member
If those numbers are correct, the 3DS might have been able to take November if the stock was there. That would certainly be a harsher drop than I was expecting, especially with the Pro launching. But let's wait for more evidence before taking that information as gospel.
 

blakep267

Member
199 is needed it seems. Curious to see if there will be a Dec boost due to the cyber Monday discount.
I would think any boost would be cancelled out by the lack of Pro pre orders that November had

Ouch, if those numbers are real, those are quite significant drops. Makes me wonder how Sony was championing "best Black Friday for PlayStation". BF must be much bigger worldwide than most of us thought. But I'll wait for our trusted dou before posting more on this.
I said it in the other thread but we don't know their criteria for "best" , so it could be spin
 

Javin98

Banned
Ouch, if those numbers are real, those are quite significant drops. Makes me wonder how Sony was championing "best Black Friday for PlayStation". BF must be much bigger worldwide than most of us thought. But I'll wait for our trusted source before posting more on this.

Edit: Didn't notice the typo, LOL
 

N.Domixis

Banned
Ouch, if those numbers are real, those are quite significant drops. Makes me wonder how Sony was championing "best Black Friday for PlayStation". BF must be much bigger worldwide than most of us thought. But I'll wait for our trusted dou before posting more on this.

Because maybe it is?
 
It's a credible site and as lame as Greenberg is at times,he would know the actual numbers so by him RT that article so it lends validity to that article.
 

Unknown?

Member
Ouch, if those numbers are real, those are quite significant drops. Makes me wonder how Sony was championing "best Black Friday for PlayStation". BF must be much bigger worldwide than most of us thought. But I'll wait for our trusted dou before posting more on this.
Take it with a grain of salt, unconfirmed "source".

And BF is becoming a thing in Europe but MUCH smaller compared to the US. BF in the U.K. only sells a tiny fraction of what it does in the U.S. It was only up like 3% there that doesn't make up the 450k loss this year from last it didn't even sell 450k the whole month in the U.K.
 

Javin98

Banned
Because maybe it is?
I mean, sure, it could be. We'll know when we get confirmation of the numbers in the US.

Take it with a grain of salt, unconfirmed "source".

And BF is becoming a thing in Europe but MUCH smaller compared to the US. BF in the U.K. only sells a tiny fraction of what it does in the U.S. It was only up like 3% there that doesn't make up the 450k loss this year from last it didn't even sell 450k the whole month in the U.K.
Yep, going to remain skeptical.
 
I would think any boost would be cancelled out by the lack of Pro pre orders that November had
Possibly, though December is also a week longer than November. And one of those weeks contains the highest sales of the year (bigger than Black Friday). The only time December has been less than November before is during supply shortages. But the Pro pattern is kind of a new thing, so who knows?

If the Windows Central leak is true--and they are usually reliable--the numbers are pretty bad for both companies.
 
He did? Then I retract my statement. Will wait to see if real or not from other sources.
i doubt that. and greenberg obviously knows the npd numbers, as microsoft is a subscriber.
ethomaz also posts wrong stuff, so take his comments also with a huge grain of salt.

to wait for a second source or confirmation is always a good thing to do, tho
 
I chuckled at this statement. The hypocrisy is so strong with this one.
just in this topic alone he said windowscentral is an unknown suspicious site and xbox one s was $50 cheaper than ps4 the last months.

both totally wrong.
and i dont know if he just doesn't know better or is willingly spreading missinformation. ill give him the benefit of the doubt
 

ethomaz

Banned
just in this topic alone he said windowscentral is an unknown suspicious site and xbox one s was $50 cheaper than ps4 the last months.

both totally wrong.
and i dont know if he just doesn't know better or is willingly spreading missinformation. ill give him the benefit of the doubt
Yeap.

Like in September you couldn't buy XB1 S with Halo 5 plus MCC and receice a $50 gift card.
And what is windowns-central??? C'mon... and they quote "Our trusted source"... pretty reliable.

Now look at your comments in this own thread lol

Did you know that the guy that runs the site has done podcasts with Crapgamer? And no, I'm not joking.
That is not a surprise to be fair.

MS execs share crapgamer things on twitter too.
 
just in this topic alone he said windowscentral is an unknown suspicious site....
So you believe Windows Central that every Xbox game will require a patch to run on Scorpio?

I actually think they're relatively reliable, but even reliable sites can be wrong or misinterpreting things.
 

Javin98

Banned
just in this topic alone he said windowscentral is an unknown suspicious site and xbox one s was $50 cheaper than ps4 the last months.

both totally wrong.
and i dont know if he just doesn't know better or is willingly spreading missinformation. ill give him the benefit of the doubt
You're missing my point entirely, but okay. Keep calling others out for false information when you have sprouted bullshit all over this thread.
 

RexNovis

Banned
just in this topic alone he said windowscentral is an unknown suspicious site and xbox one s was $50 cheaper than ps4 the last months.

both totally wrong.
and i dont know if he just doesn't know better or is willingly spreading missinformation. ill give him the benefit of the doubt

Yeap.

Like in September you couldn't buy XB1 S with Halo 5 plus MCC and receice a $50 gift card.
And what is windowns-central??? C'mon... and they quote "Our trusted source"... pretty reliable.

Now look at your comments in this own thread lol


That is not a surprise to be fair.

MS execs share crapgamer things on twitter too.

Would you two stop it. This is only making both of you look juvenile and petty.

Regardless of the source this is the only data we have so far so we might as well discuss it even as just a hypothetical. Let's stop it with the personal crusades and stick to the actual topic of this thread: discussing the sales. Please and thank you.
 
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