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NPD Sales Results for November 2015 [Up3: Combined Hardware For PS4 + XB1 + Wii U]

K

Kyougar

Member
QaaQer said:
because it is counter intuitive. It's easier to believe that gamers have X number of dollars to spend, and that those dollars are divided by Y number of games. So as Y goes up, average rev goes down: simple, believable, and apparently wrong.
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That is mostly true if those games have a wide variety of genres and target groups.
If our whole Group is 100 people big and they have a budget between 1 and 5 games they can afford, there is no way every one of the 100 is buying the amount of games they can max afford, ever.
You can have 1 Person who can afford 5 Games this holiday but buys nothing because nothing interests him currently.

Hearts of Iron 4, Star Citizen, Nier Automata, Dark Souls 3 and the Last Guardian could have been released this Holiday Season and there wouldnt be much overlap with the Top 3 Software. Some would not buy Fallout 4 if Hearts of Iron 4 was available, some wouldnt buy Battlefront if last Guardian was available but the majority would just buy the game in the genre that they love who haven't bought anything this holiday season or have not bought the maximum of games that their budget allowed them to.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
anexanhume said:
The r^2 (coeff of determination). It's basically saying that title sales directly correlate to number of releases, but it seems there may be a gray area as to whether companies time their releases well or have no idea what's going on. It was only a few years ago that virtually every AAA blockbuster released in Fall, then people started departing from that schedule with examples like ME2 in January.
Click to expand...

Oh I see what you're saying.

Welp, most have no idea what's going on or are forced to release in certain windows likely driven by quarterly financial targets (hi Ubi's 2015 slate). Others, say like Warner's this year, seems to have taken a more intelligent approach to spacing out releases.

As for the Jan/Feb Q1 releases, most of the time that's due to development issues. If a game like ME can't get out by end September or maybe early October, it's best to hold until EQ1.
 
V

vcc

Member
kinoki said:
World wide. Not just NA. Would 500k be unreasonable for all versions in 2015? Is 1m a low estimate for 2016 with both other versions included? (1.2? 1.5?)
Click to expand...

XB1 has a very small userbase outside of NA. So NPD data would be 90% of the retail copies sold. Digital copies were around 20% for EA AAA. So assuming they sold 200k retail. You could expect another 40k digital. So 240k so far.

Games tend to move the bulk of their numbers up front. Most AAA games don't 'long tail' all that well. So you might expect it to sell 240k this year. and maybe 40k next year. So 500k seems like a very high estimate.

PS. The PS4 version might sell? might not. It depends. I'd just speculate that on the XB1 version, if it sold 200k up until this NPD then it'll probably move 300k-400k units by the end 2016. Unless they had some great deal/promo on it.
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
CosmicQueso said:
Oh I see what you're saying.

Welp, most have no idea what's going on or are forced to release in certain windows likely driven by quarterly financial targets (hi Ubi's 2015 slate). Others, say like Warner's this year, seems to have taken a more intelligent approach to spacing out releases.

As for the Jan/Feb Q1 releases, most of the time that's due to development issues. If a game like ME can't get out by end September or maybe early October, it's best to hold until EQ1.
Click to expand...

I wonder why more companies don't bring big games out in summer .
 
A

allan-bh

Member
vcc said:
XB1 has a very small userbase outside of NA. So NPD data would be 90% of the retail copies sold. Digital copies were around 20% for EA AAA. So assuming they sold 200k retail. You could expect another 40k digital. So 240k so far.

Games tend to move the bulk of their numbers up front. Most AAA games don't 'long tail' all that well. So you might expect it to sell 240k this year. and maybe 40k next year. So 500k seems like a very high estimate.
Click to expand...

90%... course not. And just in UK Xbox One has likely more than 2 million consoles sold.
 
K

kinoki

Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
vcc said:
XB1 has a very small userbase outside of NA. So NPD data would be 90% of the retail copies sold. Digital copies were around 20% for EA AAA. So assuming they sold 200k retail. You could expect another 40k digital. So 240k so far.

Games tend to move the bulk of their numbers up front. Most AAA games don't 'long tail' all that well. So you might expect it to sell 240k this year. and maybe 40k next year. So 500k seems like a very high estimate.

PS. The PS4 version might sell? might not. It depends. I'd just speculate that on the XB1 version, if it sold 200k up until this NPD then it'll probably move 300k-400k units by the end 2016. Unless they had some great deal/promo on it.
Click to expand...

I'm being as optimistic as I can as I want this game to do good. There's really no chance for this game to even break a million by the start of 2017. When it releases on PS4 it will have been discounted so many times it'll be ridiculous. Heck, even the Steam-sale will have it discounted at atleast 66% off by then.
 
V

vcc

Member
kinoki said:
I'm being as optimistic as I can as I want this game to do good. There's really no chance for this game to even break a million by the start of 2017. When it releases on PS4 it will have been discounted so many times it'll be ridiculous. Heck, even the Steam-sale will have it discounted at atleast 66% off by then.
Click to expand...

I think the odds of a sequel of the same scope is now low unless the PS4/PC versions pull it up a lot. SE was very critical of the original reboots sale. Likely the budget/promo costs and the okay sales had them worried. A pretty bad debut for the sequel may mean bad things for the series.
 
B

Boombloxer

Member
autoduelist said:
Yup. The sad truth is this:

Now that I have to wait 1 year to play it, I'm going to expect it to release as a GOTY edition with all DLC - at the very least, maybe some bonus content. I also expect it to release at no more than $50, preferably $40. And when I say 'expect', I don't mean I necessarily think that will happen, just that there is no way I'd spend $60.

BUT -- [and this is huge] -- since I already waited a year for it, it will be no problem convincing myself to wait even longer [especially since other new, shiny games will be releasing]. If I can wait a year, I can wait another 6 months for it to be in the $10-$15 range [new or used, don't care which].

I doubt I'm alone, and that will definitely hurt sales of the PS4 version.
Click to expand...

I wasn't a fan of the reboot, but was willing to give this a shot.
But next year? I'll be playing SFV, Destiny and a few others. Now that release has passed, I can easily wait until it's on PS+.
 
Stilton Disco

Stilton Disco

Member
vcc said:
2m/18m XB1s is about ~12%? TR charted higher in the UK so maybe some substantial portion?
Click to expand...

If it's heavily bundled, and has the higher 20% end of digital sales, you'd be looking at a maximum ceiling of 100k units sold across XO and 360 in the UK by 2016, based on how it's been selling so far.
 
D

dabig2

Member
JoeTheBlow said:
Why? Only if it was a massive market-shaking hit would they give it even a second of air time.
Click to expand...

Sony and SE still have a pretty decent relationship. If SE asked for some support for the game in any capacity, Sony isn't going to burn down that bridge; especially if that support is like a few seconds on the sizzle reel and/or a mention of it during a conference. Sony can't completely ignore the game either, since it will probably be some super "definitive edition" where they try to trick people into paying $40 for a 1 year old bomb.
 
A

anexanhume

Member
CosmicQueso said:
Oh I see what you're saying.

Welp, most have no idea what's going on or are forced to release in certain windows likely driven by quarterly financial targets (hi Ubi's 2015 slate). Others, say like Warner's this year, seems to have taken a more intelligent approach to spacing out releases.

As for the Jan/Feb Q1 releases, most of the time that's due to development issues. If a game like ME can't get out by end September or maybe early October, it's best to hold until EQ1.
Click to expand...

Agreed on WB. They've been extremely shrewd lately. I wonder if they have some movie biz marketing and demographics expertise at play.
 
Bolivar687

Bolivar687

Banned
Bitch Pudding said:
Maybe, but at what cost?
Click to expand...

Would love for the details to come out in litigation discovery or elsewhere down the line. After I read the last page where those guys broke down the likely effects of the staggered release... I simply can't imagine how anyone could so enthusiastically bankrupt the future of a franchise.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Bitch Pudding said:
Maybe, but at what cost?
Click to expand...
First of all they would have minimized risc. That's good.
Franchise took heavy damage and maybe reboot is over now. That's sad, but we have no guarantee that a multiplat release would have generated the sales the game would have needed.
Maybe they wanted to play it save but completely overacted.
Tomb raider brand will survive, i just don't know if there will be games apart from iOS and isometric stuff.
If they have no idea they can still give it to Telltale.
 
mejin

mejin

Member
Bitch Pudding said:
Maybe, but at what cost?
Click to expand...

V0gYT.png
 
joecanada

joecanada

Member
slavesnyder said:
Maybe not even porn stars get as much money as SE got from Microsoft.
We don't know what's got paid. Maybe they broke even before a single copy has been sold.
Click to expand...

or maybe they opted for a higher percentage of gross sales? If so, basically bleeding money out of every orifice.....

speculation could go either way.
 
O

orochi91

Member
AnthonypUK said:
Yup, looks like in the initial agreement they couldn't even talk about the other versions of the game before the Xbox release.

SE wanted to talk PS4/PC versions, after the lackluster reception/pre orders of ROTR, to try and at least build some anticipation for the other versions, hence renegotiation, and delaying the PS4 version was the cost. My guy said SE didn't mind this as the delay meant it avoided UC4's release.
Click to expand...

So this is true?!

This is why the PS4 version got delayed till late 2016?!

This is some advanced levels of fuckery lmao
 
Q

QaaQer

Member
vcc said:
I think the odds of a sequel of the same scope is now low unless the PS4/PC versions pull it up a lot. SE was very critical of the original reboots sale. Likely the budget/promo costs and the okay sales had them worried. A pretty bad debut for the sequel may mean bad things for the series.
Click to expand...

Possibly. Forcing TR into the AAA space meant the bulk of the gameplay had to become 3rd person shooting with rpg mechanics in a so-called open world with everything tuned to please critics for dem scores. Some might argue that that was bad for the series and good sales would just cement that.

Bad sales might mean a reduced budget and possibly more freedom to do things differently. Maybe they can give the property to a studio like Arkane or Machine Games and give them a bit of freedom to change things up.

Lara Croft Go, imo, was a better game than TR2013 and I bet tht cost like 12 cents to make.
 
bryanee

bryanee

Member
So back the fuck up. SE delayed Tomb Raider on the PS4 for even longer just so they could mention that the PC/PS4 versions are coming in 2016?

What?
 
B

Boke1879

Member
AnthonypUK said:
Yup, looks like in the initial agreement they couldn't even talk about the other versions of the game before the Xbox release.

SE wanted to talk PS4/PC versions, after the lackluster reception/pre orders of ROTR, to try and at least build some anticipation for the other versions, hence renegotiation, and delaying the PS4 version was the cost. My guy said SE didn't mind this as the delay meant it avoided UC4's release.
Click to expand...

So this....This is the reason the PS4 version was delayed by a year? Just fucking wow.
 
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