Already people are avidly discussing the upcoming general election fight between McCain and either Clinton or Obama. Early polls suggest an evenly matched contest. Since the Republicans have all but chosen their nominee, let's look at the fall campaign mainly from his perspective. Almost by accident, the Republicans have ended up with their most electable November candidate. McCain benefited from an unimpressive GOP field, most of whom were either fundamentally flawed or who flopped despite a big build-up. McCain also gained from the split in the conservative vote (Romney and Huckabee, and earlier Thompson), which enabled him to generate unstoppable momentum after minimal, low-to-mid-thirties victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida. This was despite McCain's having lost Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, and Wyoming in the early going. His long-time attraction to Independents enabled McCain to secure his first three primary wins, and this same Independent appeal gives McCain a legitimate shot to win the general election
Yet many of the early press accounts are too gauzily positive about McCain's general election chances. He has many mountains to climb before he can take up residence in the White House. First, other than Barry Goldwater in 1964, it is difficult to think of a modern Republican nominee who faced as much opposition as McCain does in some quarters of the party base. (Maybe Gerald Ford should be on this list, but few GOP activists ever truly disliked the agreeable man from Michigan.) McCain's obstreperous nature has widened the chasm with many conservative Republicans, and he is openly despised by many lions on the right. Will McCain be able to employ the kind of sensitive diplomacy he will need to mend fences? It's not in his nature, but he has no choice if he wants to avoid a listless party base or even a conservative independent candidacy that could deprive him of crucial votes in November. At the same time, he cannot kowtow to the right-wing base, as he often seemed to do at yesterday's CPAC confab, without losing the backing of many swing voters. It's a high-wire act that McCain may or may not perform successfully. At least now he has many months to maneuver while Democrats are still fighting among themselves.
Moreover, look what McCain faces politically. Judging by the voter turnouts in most states and the overall fund-raising totals, Democrats have a dramatic edge this year in the enthusiasm of their party activists. McCain is hobbled in trying to reverse this trend by George W. Bush. The Arizona senator is going to represent a party whose current President has had ratings in the low to middle 30s for two years. Given that three-quarters of Republicans still back Bush, McCain dares not criticize Bush too much since the nominee-apparent is already shaky with the party base. At the same time, McCain must put considerable distance between himself and Bush--his opposition to Bush in 2000 will help--but in the end, voters tend to hold the nominee of the President's party responsible for the President's administration.
If timing is everything in politics, McCain's schedule for seeking the White House couldn't be worse. We may or may not be in a recession, but economic conditions are undeniably disturbing. Aren't the tanking economy and an unpopular war a heck of a double burden for any Republican standard-bearer? The surge may have worked, but disengaging from the Iraq war is still a priority for a large majority of Americans. If voters want out, how do they vote for a man who has pledged to stay in Iraq for decades if necessary? The candidates all seem to agree that it is a "change" year. Is McCain just the right combination of change and continuity, or by November will he be painted so brightly with the colors of the Bush Administration that voters no longer see his own independent stripes?
Finally, the question of McCain's age will play a role, though exactly what role is difficult to say. The Republican would be 72 by the time of his potential Inauguration, the oldest President ever elected to a first term. Perhaps senior citizens--usually the age cohort with the highest turnout--will like that, just as they have so far in the GOP primaries. But younger voters may consider 72, combined with McCain's prior bout with cancer, to be too risky. Clinton is a decade younger, and Obama, at 46, is more than a full generation removed from McCain. Age didn't hurt Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984, though it was a factor bubbling in the electoral stew, but 2008 is a very different election. On this score, concerning McCain's three score and twelve, put us down as "undecided." Perhaps the selection of a younger, widely respected vice presidential candidate can assist McCain in efforts to erase doubts about his age. Or maybe his vigorous, lively 95-year old mother does that all by herself.
Both of the Democrats have plenty of flaws and weaknesses, too, and once we have a Democratic nominee, you can be sure we'll dissect them as well. Whichever Democrat emerges can expect a frontal assault on traditional Republican themes (soft on national security, liberalism, big-taxing, and the like). McCain will also likely accept the reality of a Democratic Congress, and present himself as the only potential check on the legislative branch, especially in the area of spending.
