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[Nazgul_Hunter]

No kidding. Also see: number of tickets sold.

Inflation and now, ticket prices (not to mention the existence of home video and quick DVD releases) make for a very different market.

Exactly; looking at number of tickets sold or adjusting for inflation is not a real good comparison just because of the enormously different market that movies have to deal with now. TV, DVD, population changes etc. make it hard to compare movies across time. (For example, the Star Wars numbers includes tons of re-releases, including the 1997 one)

 

[charsace]

Please make Battle Angel Alita in 3D James. Please!

 

[y2dvd]

Someone need to make a gif similar to the one with Iwata/Miyamoto and the Wii/DS printing money, but change it with Cameron and Avatar. :lol

Way beaten to the punch :lol

Ive seen Avatar in Imax and RealD and I plan to see it again on Liemax once I figure out what that is exactly lol and again in 2D. Feels like I'm donating to Avatar's prosthetic legs lol.

 

[GreyMatter]

Ive seen Avatar in Imax and RealD and I plan to see it again on Liemax once I figure out what that is exactly.

If you're talking about what I think you are, Ebert covered it pretty well here.

Essentially, it's IMAX mini, which kind of destroys the point. I saw Watchmen on one of those fake IMAX screens and, while it did look damn good, there's really no competition.

 

[StoOgE]

Exactly; looking at number of tickets sold or adjusting for inflation is not a real good comparison just because of the enormously different market that movies have to deal with now. TV, DVD, population changes etc. make it hard to compare movies across time. (For example, the Star Wars numbers includes tons of re-releases, including the 1997 one)

As does gone with the wind. My father ran a movie theater in college.. it was a 4 screen theater (which was evidently a big deal back then).. and they always ran 1-2 classic movies.

There just were not as many movies released back then either. Movies were allowed to have legs back then because there were fewer releases.. and re-releases were possible.

Really you should only be comparing movies released over the last 25-30 years when home video had really settled in as affordable.

 

[Manmademan]

I thought Avatar would hold up this weekend:

don't forget that last weekend the entire northeast was snowed under. If anything, last week's totals were abnormally low, and THIS week's totals are a little higher than usual because of that.

Avatar SHOULD have had 100+ million opening last weekend, but didn't.

I think you'll see a large drop next week, and more gradual drops every week thereafter.

 

[GDJustin]

Did you see From Hell?

No, but I just looked it up and it looks pretty cool. Will add to my Netflix Queue.

I'd have to agree...though if they're all PG-13 I'll pass. It made sense for this character (despite the director), though. I'd still like to see an "R" rated cut if it was on the table.

Yeah, glad to see Ritchie have a bonafide hit, for once. Dude is crazy talented and I've always loved his work.

 

[gdt]

I thought Avatar would hold up this weekend:

don't forget that last weekend the entire northeast was snowed under. If anything, last week's totals were abnormally low, and THIS week's totals are a little higher than usual because of that.

Avatar SHOULD have had 100+ million opening last weekend, but didn't.

I think you'll see a large drop next week, and more gradual drops every week thereafter.

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%



















2.6%

 

[GreyMatter]

I think you'll see a large drop next week, and more gradual drops every week thereafter.

Do not incite the wrath of The Futurist.

This comment alone shall cause him to will Avatar's box office figures to their highest in week six. :lol

 

[Kaako]

You ma boi blue!

 

[gdt]

Just to put it out there, I'm calling a 30%-35% drop for next week.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I thought Avatar would hold up this weekend:

don't forget that last weekend the entire northeast was snowed under. If anything, last week's totals were abnormally low, and THIS week's totals are a little higher than usual because of that.

Avatar SHOULD have had 100+ million opening last weekend, but didn't.

I think you'll see a large drop next week, and more gradual drops every week thereafter.

Three things.

First, Avatar is being constrained by the number of 3D theaters: both Alvin and Sherlock are in more theaters than Avatar. And the two hours forty minute run time means 1-2 fewer showings per day than the competition.

Second, Sunday is an estimate; they're guessing Avatar will drop 20% today. It dropped 3.1% last weekend, after initially being estimated to drop much more. (Actuals were $4m higher than projected.) So it's premature for the "I thought Avatar would hold up" bit.

Third, some context: no super wide release movie has ever opened this high and then dropped so little.

And it's estimated to be $160k shy of TDK's record second weekend - and that movie had double Avatar's opening weekend.

The movie is doing okay.

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

15% drop

 

[Veidt]

Just to put it out there, I'm calling a 30%-35% drop for next week.

Again, I'm going all out on this. This is so preposterous right now, I'm gonna say a 9% drop.:lol

 

[dabig2]

I thought Avatar would hold up this weekend:

don't forget that last weekend the entire northeast was snowed under. If anything, last week's totals were abnormally low, and THIS week's totals are a little higher than usual because of that.

Avatar SHOULD have had 100+ million opening last weekend, but didn't.

I think you'll see a large drop next week, and more gradual drops every week thereafter.

next week is basically another holiday weekend with New Year's and schools still being out. I wouldn't doubt another 60+ million there. But I do agree with maybe this week's gross compensating for the losses last week.

Word of mouth however is this movie's boon. It'll be a long time before we see any "large drops" .

 

[jamesinclair]

a 2.6% drop... whoa.

Anybody who didnt see this coming after half the country was stuck at home last weekend because of snow is blind.

 

[gdt]

Again, I'm going all out on this. This is so preposterous right now, I'm gonna say a 9% drop.:lol

There's no precursor, who knows :lol ?

 

[jett]

Anybody who didnt see this coming after half the country was stuck at home last weekend because of snow is blind.

Even before the snowstorm factor the predictions for Avatar were only slightly higher than what it ended up grossing last week. I think you're being a bit of a naysayer. 600+ mill in 10 days, Avatar is officially a phenomenon.

Next weekend will also see a fantastically small drop, thanks to the holiday factor.

 

[bud]

Anybody who didnt see this coming after half the country was stuck at home last weekend because of snow is blind.

well, i had no problem reading this post.

 

[gdt]

Even before the snowstorm factor the predictions for Avatar were only slightly higher than what it ended up grossing last week. I think you're being a bit of a naysayer. 600+ mill in 10 days, Avatar is officially a phenomenon.

Next weekend will also see a fantastically small drop, thanks to the holiday factor.

Oh shit I forgot next weekend is another holiday.

I'll revise my prediction to 15%-20% drop for Wk3.

 

[Timbuktu]

Even before the snowstorm factor the predictions for Avatar were only slightly higher than what it ended up grossing last week. I think you're being a bit of a naysayer. 600+ mill in 10 days, Avatar is officially a phenomenon.

Next weekend will also see a fantastically small drop, thanks to the holiday factor.

You're not living up to your tag.

 

[Count of Monte Sawed-Off]

well, i had no problem reading this post.

Ditto. I would've figured at least a 25% drop, and I most of the analysts predicted a small drop but certainly something more than sub-3%

 

[j_k_redtail]

Did the midwest snowstorm affect this weekend's numbers?

 

[goldenticket]

I saw up in the air on christmas eve. Really liked it. Hopefully it can hang around a little

 

[RBH]

Holy shit. :O

 

[GhaleonEB]

Helping propel the gross for "Avatar" was the movie's performance at large-screen Imax locations. Theaters generally charge 25% to 50% more for movies shown in Imax than those on regular-sized screens.

Greg Foster, Imax Corp.'s chairman and president for filmed entertainment, said nearly every showing at the company's 242 locations around the world had been sold out for 10 days.

Imax locations have generated over $39 million in "Avatar" sales so far, Mr. Foster added. By way of comparison, he said it took "The Dark Knight" six weeks to sell $45 million worth of tickets—a level he expects "Avatar" to achieve after just 13 days in theaters.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703991304574622431088620064.html

 

[Meus Renaissance]

Avatar 2 will blow this. Seriously. Cameron has created a monster

 

[gdt]

Seriously.

Cameron has a serious shot at having both #1 and #2 movies of all time. Avatar could be number 2 within 3/4 weeks.

We'll know by then if it has a shot at Titanic's spot.






Avatar 2 will probably topple them both.

 

[zero_suit]

Seriously.

Cameron has a serious shot at having both #1 and #2 movies of all time. Avatar could be number 2 within 3/4 weeks.

We'll know by then if it has a shot at Titanic's spot.






Avatar 2 will probably topple them both.

Almost zero

 

[gdt]

Almost zero

+$600 WW. 10 days. 2.6% domestic Wk2 drop.

It'll probably get #2...#1 isn't out of the question. (Pretty) Unlikely, but we'll know for sure in a few weeks.

 

[Scalemail Ted]

Noooo.... Princess and Frog... inch your way as far as you can go

 

[Darko]

Just to put it out there, I'm calling a 30%-35% drop for next week.

5%-10%, calling it now.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

+$600 WW. 10 days. 2.6% domestic Wk2 drop.

It'll probably get #2...#1 isn't out of the question. (Pretty) Unlikely, but we'll know for sure in a few weeks.

Titanic is at like $1.8 billion. Avatar has no chance.

 

[Evlar]

Did the midwest snowstorm affect this weekend's numbers?

I like this post.

 

[gdt]

Titanic is at like $1.8 billion. Avatar has no chance.

I don't think so either, but the point is that Avatar has defied any logical expectations.

It's second week is as big as it's first. What if the third is another ~$70? The fourth ~$50? (<-not my predictions, just hypotheticals)

We just don't know, Avatar is not pulling like a normal blockbuster. It's behaving exactly like Titanic, but on a bigger scale.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Titanic is at like $1.8 billion. Avatar has no chance.

I think Avatar has almost no chance, but people should probably wait until it, you know, starts dropping to write the possibility off.

If it starts dropping 25% this week, and keeps dropping 25% every week, it's at $1.8b by the end of February.

And it hasn't started dropping yet.

 

[TacticalFox88]

Titanic is at like $1.8 billion. Avatar has no chance.

Remember the last time we bet against Cameron?

 

[Solo]

Just got in from well, er, Avatar (again), and seeing this puts a smile on my face

 

[ryutaro's mama]

So looking at the upcoming releases, I can only see "Book of Whitta" knocking AVATAR out of the #1 spot moving forward. That means it could have #1 locked for another couple of weeks.

 

[GhaleonEB]

So looking at the upcoming releases, I can only see "Book of Whitta" knocking AVATAR out of the #1 spot moving forward. That means it could have #1 locked for another couple of weeks.

That reminds me. Cameron was saying pre-release he wasn't worried about a big opening weekend, because it would do well in January due to little competition. Might still be the case. :lol

 

[xrich]

Well I was way off on Avatar. It definitely has a good chance at crossing $400 mil. Still havn't seen it yet, I'm in no rush.

Good for Holmes. I was way off on that as well with my guess last week of about $45. Hopefully it continues to do well, I would really like to see a sequel.

:lol :lol a good chance? its a fucking given.

 

[Solo]

I remember Solo saying this will do over 1 billion. Looks like he is not too far off :lol

Never bet against Solo

Spoiler

Cameron

:lol

 

[Barrett2]

Avatar 2 will blow this. Seriously. Cameron has created a monster

Just like all the other big sequels Cameron has made?



Genuinely surprised at Avatar, the marketing for it is so lame. I guess the word of mouth must be really, really good.

 

[Dan]

Even if Avatar gets near Titanic's gross, it'll be nowhere near its raw ticket sales with the crazy amount of price inflation and surcharges.

 

[koam]

Just like all the other big sequels Cameron has made?



Genuinely surprised at Avatar, the marketing for it is so lame. I guess the word of mouth must be really, really good.

I hope you were being sarcastic (Terminator 2, Aliens)

So looking at the upcoming releases, I can only see "Book of Whitta" knocking AVATAR out of the #1 spot moving forward. That means it could have #1 locked for another couple of weeks.

I know I should support my GAF bretheren, but book of eli doesn't look very interesting. It will probably dent Avatar's sales the first weekend but that's about it.

 

[SCULLIBUNDO]

A mod seriously need to change this terrible thread title.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Remember the last time we bet against Cameron?

no because I was like 15 the last time he released a movie and don't recall posting on message boards about how much of a flop Titanic was going to be. I don't even think I had the internet back then.

 

[avaya]

Never really read these threads but holy fucking shit Avatar 2nd weekend.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

DP

 

[gdt]

Around what time tomorrow will we get the Sunday actuals?