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Pachter: "PSP2 will be dead on arrival" [Update 675]

StuBurns said:
I don't care for DD, I put up with it because I'm too lazy to shop and too impatient to wait for postal deliveries. It annoys me that sometimes there aren't demos, so you buy things that you don't like and can't do fucking anything with it.

I bought PoP:SoT HD a couple of weeks ago, and it's horrible, it was about £15, and I don't want it, but I can't do a single thing about that now, and even with the things I like, there is no promise they'll carry forward to the next-gen.

Thank you for making my argument against DLC for me.
 
the iphone looks lush but it fucking sucks as a gaming platform

leaving aside the abominable controls, the games are simply not up to par. it's like the wii library, but there is far less of anything substantial and far more terrible shovelware

the PSP has the kinds of small downloadable cellphone games you see on the iphone. it just has other stuff as well
 
I like having DD as an option, but mandatory download *only* does give me some pause.
I would like the option of physical media if I desired it.
 
Manmademan said:
I like having DD as an option, but mandatory download *only* does give me some pause.
I would like the option of physical media if I desired it.

I want all my games to have 100% install option and disc checks. This is one thing I envy X360 owners.
 
Sipowicz said:
the iphone looks lush but it fucking sucks as a gaming platform

leaving aside the abominable controls, the games are simply not up to par. it's like the wii library, but there is far less of anything substantial and far more terrible shovelware

the PSP has the kinds of small downloadable cellphone games you see on the iphone. it just has other stuff as well

I have no problem finding dozens of iOS games to enjoy, it's challenging my PC lately for gaming time. There's tons of great games on the iPhone, the problem is if you're expecting Super Mario Galaxy or Resident Evil 4 or Mass Effect 2 type games, you're going to be disappointed. There's plenty of games which are a ton of fun like Carcassonne, that can provide dozens if not 100s of hours of entertainment. There's even some more esquisitie RPG/Strategy stuff too, but you just have to suscribe to a feed or follow the iPhone thread.

I don't think I've ever seen you post once in it, and I just checked, and you haven't, so I can't help but to question your degree of bias.
 
Steve Youngblood said:
Well, sure, if you can only have one single device that can do everything that people consider important for an electronic device that is carried in their pocket, then you're right. However, as it pertains to analyzing whether or not a device has mainstream marketability, it's important to realize that many people won't limit themselves to just one device, particularly over the game device's ~5 year lifecycle. Furthermore, as it pertains to gaming marketshare, many of us are noting that there's still a ton of money to be made in "serious" games and genres that aren't well represented on the iOS.
I already said that in my first post in this thread! I said sometging to the effect of, 'all three devices are completely attainable.' No one really reads anything on these forums do they? I'm not saying anything controversial yet you are all overreacting as if I had said something deeply offensive to you.
 
esquire said:
I already said that in my first post in this thread! I said sometging to the effect of, 'all three devices are completely attainable.' No one really reads anything on these forums do they? I'm not saying anything controversial yet you are all overreacting as if I had said something deeply offensive to you.

Nope. I tend to ignore anyone with a name that isn't capitalized.
 
Lard said:
I want my phone to be a phone and my gaming portable to be a gaming portable.

I don't want half-assed versions of both in one shiny combo.
That's probably why the article you are so upset over mentioned the iPod Touch specifically. The largest demographic that buys handheld gaming devices is too young for a cell phone to be a realistic option.
 
Minsc said:
I don't think I've ever seen you post once in it, and I just checked, and you haven't, so I can't help but to question your degree of bias.
Well, he equally ignorant of wii's library, if that's any sort of conciliation ; )
 
esquire said:
I already said that in my first post in this thread! I said sometging to the effect of, 'all three devices are completely attainable.' No one really reads anything on these forums do they? I'm not saying anything controversial yet you are all overreacting as if I had said something deeply offensive to you.
Well, the counter is just that "people wanting only one device will gravitate towards the iOS platforms," while not necessarily controversial, is irrelevant to the conclusion that is being hinted at in that this premise will lead to the iOS devices being the go-to gaming platforms. That's all I'm getting at.
 
Varian said:
You really don't know what you're talking about:

I'm not sure what you thought my point was. Yes, Apple did go from not caring at all about gaming to caring enough about gaming to have one guy lead a small team dedicated to making the system play games well. Their monetary investment on this is probably two or three orders of magnitude less than what Nintendo spends developing their platforms, designing first-party software, doing developer outreach, etc. and it's also orders of magnitude less than Apple spends on the other aspects of their iOS hardware and software.

That's what makes gaming appealing to Apple: a small investment goes a long way. That's only true because their devices are mostly sold on non-gaming functions but they happen to be good enough (and more importantly, have a solid content-distribution mechanism) to create a market for games. If they tried to muscle in on Nintendo's market, they'd have to spend way, way, way more money but almost certainly wouldn't actually make way more profit as a result.

StuBurns said:
Pirating has clearly affected sales, I'm not claiming otherwise, people do pirate PSP games, but the question should be why, not what affect it's had.

On most systems historically, piracy involved trading convenience for (illicit) free games: you'd have to do stuff that was a pain in the ass, and use your system carefully, but you got to play games without paying for them. On the PSP for much of its early life, the CFW was actually dramatically more convenient than the "legit" experience: better loading, better battery life, more options, more portability.

Basically, I would propose that there's a large portion of people who don't really feel any significant moral objection to piracy but who are also super-lazy about piracy. A lot of these people, if they got a PSP, would've CFWed it because the PSP is a shitty system without CFW, and at that point moral refusal to pirate is the only obstacle.

StuBurns said:
Strange you mention MH, it's almost the completely opposite suggestive evidence. PSP games that do appeal to an audience can sell incredibly well because there is an installbase.

In Japan, PSP software sales were revitalized in part because the platform fought off piracy (3000s can't be CFWed) at the same time that new, desirable software was coming out -- essentially they rebooted the platform and a large portion of its software sales are probably going to people who bought in late.

BritBloke916 said:
Please stop posting actual, undeniable facts. It's upsetting people. GAF is usually a safe haven from such realities :lol

Don't do this.
 
Minsc said:
I have no problem finding dozens of iOS games to enjoy, it's challenging my PC lately for gaming time. There's tons of great games on the iPhone, the problem is if you're expecting Super Mario Galaxy or Resident Evil 4 or Mass Effect 2 type games, you're going to be disappointed. There's plenty of games which are a ton of fun like Carcassonne, that can provide dozens if not 100s of hours of entertainment. There's even some more esquisitie RPG/Strategy stuff too, but you just have to suscribe to a feed or follow the iPhone thread.

I don't think I've ever seen you post once in it, and I just checked, and you haven't, so I can't help but to question your degree of bias.

Right on!
 
Minsc said:
I have no problem finding dozens of iOS games to enjoy, it's challenging my PC lately for gaming time. There's tons of great games on the iPhone, the problem is if you're expecting Super Mario Galaxy or Resident Evil 4 or Mass Effect 2 type games

i am, and i get it on the PSP. Peacewalker was fucking huge but perfectly suited to the psp. same goes for persona 3 portable. these arre rare on the iphone and completely unsuited to the platform. i shudder to think of playing chinatown wars with an on screen control pad

if you only want little downloadable games the iphone is great. and ideally i'd like to see nintendo and sony make serious moves towards an xbla quality service next gen. an area in which they're seriously behind. but again it isn't my main concern
 
Sipowicz said:
i am, and i get it on the PSP. Peacewalker was fucking huge but perfectly suited to the psp. same goes for persona 3 portable. these arre rare on the iphone and completely unsuited to the platform. i shudder to think of playing chinatown wars with an on screen control pad

if you only want little downloadable games the iphone is great. and ideally i'd like to see nintendo and sony make serious moves towards an xbla quality service next gen. an area in which they're seriously behind. but again it isn't my main concern

Well, there is the point that some of us were making a few pages ago, meaning that, while it is great that I can play Peacewalker on my PSP (omg amazing game), I don't really game on the go with my PSP since it's a hassle to carry with me. That's the appeal of the iOS - right now, on a conference call, I can play a game. If I can't game on the go, and usually play my handheld system at home, then the benefit of amazingly deep game kinda leaves, since I have my PS3/PC/etc sitting right there.
 
commish said:
That's the appeal of the iOS - right now, on a conference call, I can play a game.

Which is why people have made the point that iOS' large and very successful gaming market is unlikely to go away (because there are tons of people who want this) but also unlikely to actually take over the DS' gaming market (because most people buying portable handheld games want something different from that.)

Vinci said:
Nope. I tend to ignore anyone with a name that isn't capitalized.

lies
 
commish said:
Well, there is the point that some of us were making a few pages ago, meaning that, while it is great that I can play Peacewalker on my PSP (omg amazing game), I don't really game on the go with my PSP since it's a hassle to carry with me. That's the appeal of the iOS - right now, on a conference call, I can play a game. If I can't game on the go, and usually play my handheld system at home, then the benefit of amazingly deep game kinda leaves, since I have my PS3/PC/etc sitting right there.

PSP is all about lounging about the house, playing wherever.. and being able to play amazing games like Peace Walker (seriously underrated GOTY contender) and Monster Hunter Portable 3rd. I think it's pretty awesome that the PSP has held up so well in the graphics department, it took the competition at least four years to get close to it.

And iOS has a serious disadvantage with the lack of physical controls.. Infinity Blade has the visual fidelity and engine to make itself count, but it really just boils down to a game of punch out with swipe motions.

I am ready for my second analog stick now, Sony.
 
charlequin said:
I'm not sure what you thought my point was. Yes, Apple did go from not caring at all about gaming to caring enough about gaming to have one guy lead a small team dedicated to making the system play games well. Their monetary investment on this is probably two or three orders of magnitude less than what Nintendo spends developing their platforms, designing first-party software, doing developer outreach, etc. and it's also orders of magnitude less than Apple spends on the other aspects of their iOS hardware and software.

That's what makes gaming appealing to Apple: a small investment goes a long way. That's only true because their devices are mostly sold on non-gaming functions but they happen to be good enough (and more importantly, have a solid content-distribution mechanism) to create a market for games. If they tried to muscle in on Nintendo's market, they'd have to spend way, way, way more money but almost certainly wouldn't actually make way more profit as a result.

That's a fine way to argue! Under-articulate your point and then temper whatever meat there was to it initially after being shown wrong.

And, of course, saying "probably" and "orders of magnitude" with absolutely no numbers to back it up. Isn't that the point of an analysis thread?
 
Varian said:
That's a fine way to argue! Under-articulate your point and then temper whatever meat there was to it initially after being shown wrong.

And, of course, saying "probably" and "orders of magnitude" with absolutely no numbers to back it up. Isn't that the point of an analysis thread?

Damn, man... His point isn't dramatically difficult to comprehend. :lol
 
Varian said:
That's a fine way to argue! Under-articulate your point and then temper whatever meat there was to it initially after being shown wrong.

And, of course, saying "probably" and "orders of magnitude" with absolutely no numbers to back it up. Isn't that the point of an analysis thread?
I'm not really sure what you're trying to accomplish, here. Nobody's arguing that Apple doesn't care at all about gaming. But to argue that they're pulling out the stops for an all out war against Nintendo is not backed up by any reality. They market their devices as all-purpose multimedia devices that, among other things, play games (this is evidenced by a few montage commercials of unnamed games). Aside from that, the only marketing that the games get is on their own store. Furthermore, they're not in the business of developing system-selling blockbusters like Nintendo is. You seem to think that one has to accept a binary reality where either Apple is not in the games business at all, or they're all in when that clearly isn't how things have to be. Apple has never really reached out and tried to market their devices heavily to the serious gaming crowd, and they haven't signaled yet that they plan on doing so.
 
charlequin said:
Which is why people have made the point that iOS' large and very successful gaming market is unlikely to go away (because there are tons of people who want this) but also unlikely to actually take over the DS' gaming market (because most people buying portable handheld games want something different from that.)


Yes, exactly. My point is that the iOS can grow to include those deeper experiences you get on the DS, while the DS/3DS/PSP2 can never fill the iOS's market. And if you recall our conversation about this a few days ago, the addition of a real D-Pad would go a longgggg way to providing those deeper experiences, at least for me.
 
Steve Youngblood said:
I'm not really sure what you're trying to accomplish, here. Nobody's arguing that Apple doesn't care at all about gaming. But to argue that they're pulling out the stops for an all out war against Nintendo is not backed up by any reality. They market their devices as all-purpose multimedia devices that, among other things, play games (this is evidenced by a few montage commercials of unnamed games). Aside from that, the only marketing that the games get is on their own store. Furthermore, they're not in the business of developing system-selling blockbusters like Nintendo is. You seem to think that one has to accept a binary reality where either Apple is not in the games business at all, or they're all in when that clearly isn't how things have to be. Apple has never really reached out and tried to market their devices heavily to the serious gaming crowd, and they haven't signaled yet that they plan on doing so.

The combination of avatar and eminently sensible posting means you're on of the posters I recognise.
 
Steve Youngblood said:
I'm not really sure what you're trying to accomplish, here. Nobody's arguing that Apple doesn't care at all about gaming. But to argue that they're pulling out the stops for an all out war against Nintendo is not backed up by any reality. They market their devices as all-purpose multimedia devices that, among other things, play games (this is evidenced by a few montage commercials of unnamed games). Aside from that, the only marketing that the games get is on their own store. Furthermore, they're not in the business of developing system-selling blockbusters like Nintendo is. You seem to think that one has to accept a binary reality where either Apple is not in the games business at all, or they're all in when that clearly isn't how things have to be. Apple has never really reached out and tried to market their devices heavily to the serious gaming crowd, and they haven't signaled yet that they plan on doing so.

Huh? I'm only arguing against "Apple spends almost nothing on its game support now" with the fact that they do (paying Graeme Devine).

Do I really have to read the rest of the thread to do that? :lol
 
commish said:
Yes, exactly. My point is that the iOS can grow to include those deeper experiences you get on the DS, while the DS/3DS/PSP2 can never fill the iOS's market. And if you recall our conversation about this a few days ago, the addition of a real D-Pad would go a longgggg way to providing those deeper experiences, at least for me.
All the while, future Sony and Nintendo handhelds will keep raising the bar for handheld gaming content that the iOS and Android will have a difficult time reaching. Mobile devices have a come a long way as a mini-computer, but will they be able to replace PC's and laptops of the future? I think most will find that a difficult claim to believe.
 
Varian said:
Huh? I'm only arguing against "Apple spends almost nothing on its game support now" with the fact that they do (paying Graeme Devine).

Do I really have to read the rest of the thread to do that? :lol
I think his point is;

Paying Graeme Devine = "Spend almost nothing in game support"
 
rpmurphy said:
All the while, future Sony and Nintendo handhelds will keep raising the bar for handheld gaming content that the iOS and Android will have a difficult time reaching. Mobile devices have a come a long way as a mini-computer, but will they be able to replace PC's and laptops of the future? I think most will find that a difficult claim to believe.

If Steve Jobs has his way, that's how it will be!
 
Varian said:
Huh? I'm only arguing against "Apple spends almost nothing on its game support now" with the fact that they do (paying Graeme Devine).

Do I really have to read the rest of the thread to do that? :lol
I'm just kind of perplexed that you're taking this kind of confrontational tone toward a moderator on the grounds that his argument ignores that Apple used to have one guy on the payroll dedicated to gaming.
 
Boney said:
I think his point is;

Paying Graeme Devine = "Spend almost nothing in game support"

In addition, Apple has an "iPhone Game Technologies" division. That's at least a room and four chairs that could otherwise be used for researching how to add a third mouse button.
 
Steve Youngblood said:
I'm just kind of perplexed that you're taking this kind of confrontational tone toward a moderator on the grounds that his argument ignores that Apple used to have one guy on the payroll dedicated to gaming.

It's more about basing an analysis on no hard numbers whatsoever.
 
Varian said:
It's more about basing an analysis on no hard numbers whatsoever.

I don't mean to join Varian's cause, but I had a similar issue with charlequin's posts a few pages back.

/runs to play Etrian Odyssey 3, GOTY.
 
Varian said:
And, of course, saying "probably" and "orders of magnitude" with absolutely no numbers to back it up. Isn't that the point of an analysis thread?

Where did you "show" that I was wrong? Hint: posting an uncontextualized link and following it with a :lol is basically never a winning argument.

It is trivial, even without internal information, to see the difference in expenditures here. Nintnedo's annual R&D budget -- literally 100% of which is dedicated to gaming hardware and software -- is around $450 million. Their promotional budget -- also dedicated 100% to gaming -- is around $500 million. Apple's entire R&D budget -- that is, all the money they spend each year on creating and iterating the iPhone, iPad, all Macintoshes, etc. -- is on the order of $1 billion. Even if they spend, say, $10 million of that each year on gaming development, that's 1% of their R&D budget and far less than dedicated gaming companies spend -- chump change.

Varian said:
Huh? I'm only arguing against "Apple spends almost nothing on its game support now" with the fact that they do (paying Graeme Devine).

I think it is trivially obvious that one guy's salary is "almost nothing" compared either to Apple's overall R&D expenditure or what Nintendo or another dedicated gaming company spends, and that even the inclusion of the department which he heads is a minimal expenditure on the scale we're discussing here.

commish said:
I don't mean to join Varian's cause, but I had a similar issue with charlequin's posts a few pages back.

I spelled my math out for you and everything!
 
commish said:
I don't mean to join Varian's cause, but I had a similar issue with charlequin's posts a few pages back.

/runs to play Etrian Odyssey 3, GOTY.

Damn you!

Anyway, the testbeds for whether iOS can become a "serious" games platform are, at the one end, id's RAGE, and, at the other, Epic's Infinity Blade. Keep in mind, for good or ill, customers have already accepted touchscreen d-pads and "analog" sticks.
 
Varian said:
Anyway, the testbeds for whether iOS can become a "serious" games platform are, at the one end, id's RAGE, and, at the other, Epic's Infinity Blade.

What's the definition of "serious" here? Infinity Blade is $6, Rage HD is $2. Both include content commensurate with their prices. Both attempt to provide high-quality, impressive graphics in a package with relatively bite-sized and non-complex gameplay.

I think both of these games represent very savvy design on the part of their developers. I think both are very much "serious" in that they're games from established developers which don't cut corners or treat iOS as a throwaway platform. They're also both extremely different from what you'd get on any other current platform -- which is really central to the argument that mobile games are not currently covering much of the territory that dedicated handhelds do.
 
charlequin said:
Where did you "show" that I was wrong?

Graeme wasn't working for free! (unless he's a dirtier hippie than I thought).

charlequin said:
It is trivial, even without internal information, to see the difference in expenditures here. Nintnedo's annual R&D budget -- literally 100% of which is dedicated to gaming hardware and software -- is around $450 million. Their promotional budget -- also dedicated 100% to gaming -- is around $500 million. Apple's entire R&D budget -- that is, all the money they spend each year on creating and iterating the iPhone, iPad, all Macintoshes, etc. -- is on the order of $1 billion. Even if they spend, say, $10 million of that each year on gaming development, that's 1% of their R&D budget and far less than dedicated gaming companies spend -- chump change.

With that math, you're in the right. Bear in mind though you're ignoring the obvious overlap between OS X, iOS, and related technologies (OpenGL, Core Motion) in determining gaming-relevant expenditures.

As an aside, remember too that NeXTstep was the development environment for both Wolfenstein and DOOM, and the dev tools for iOS are just as fantastic.
 
charlequin said:
What's the definition of "serious" here? Infinity Blade is $6, Rage HD is $2. Both include content commensurate with their prices. Both attempt to provide high-quality, impressive graphics in a package with relatively bite-sized and non-complex gameplay.

I think both of these games represent very savvy design on the part of their developers. I think both are very much "serious" in that they're games from established developers which don't cut corners or treat iOS as a throwaway platform. They're also both extremely different from what you'd get on any other current platform -- which is really central to the argument that mobile games are not currently covering much of the territory that dedicated handhelds do.

"Serious" = that which threatens to reallocate developer resources away from 20+ hour console games to episodic iPhone ones :o
 
Varian said:
Bear in mind though you're ignoring the obvious overlap between OS X, iOS, and related technologies (OpenGL, Core Motion) in determining gaming-relevant expenditures.

That's a reasonable point, although I think even with that it'd be a stretch to consider the vast majority of Apple's R&D expenditure as "gaming-related" or (more importantly) suitable for easy conversion into R&D expenditures suitable for maintaining a gaming platform on the scope of DS or PSP.

Varian said:
"Serious" = that which threatens to reallocate developer resources away from 20+ hour console games to episodic iPhone ones :o

The budgets for these games are so low (in comparison to $30 million console games, at least) that I think it'd actually be hard for many developers to completely reallocate into these games -- they'd either have to develop like 20 of them at a time or lay off most of their staff.

If it does mean that a lot of Western developers go from making only (say) 3 HD console games to making (say) 2 HD console games and three or four mobile/iOS games at a time, I'd consider that an unambiguously good thing -- it'll help diversify those developers, give them a steadier cashflow, and make them more resistant to a single project flopping, all of which developers could desperately use in the current environment.
 
charlequin said:
The budgets for these games are so low (in comparison to $30 million console games, at least) that I think it'd actually be hard for many developers to completely reallocate into these games -- they'd either have to develop like 20 of them at a time or lay off most of their staff.
That is not such a bad idea I imagine though. If you fumble on a big budget PS360 game, it can really fuck the company. Making 20 individual million dollar iPhone games might help spread that risk a little.

They've been bought now, but imagine the damage something like Rage bombing might have done to id, especially now they're not selling their engine (although I imagine that wouldn't have happened had they not sold). The company wasn't banking on it, but it'd hurt really badly I'd imagine.
 
charlequin said:
If it does mean that a lot of Western developers go from making only (say) 3 HD console games to making (say) 2 HD console games and three or four mobile/iOS games at a time, I'd consider that an unambiguously good thing -- it'll help diversify those developers, give them a steadier cashflow, and make them more resistant to a single project flopping, all of which developers could desperately use in the current environment.

Hmm, the danger too is they could all pull a Ubisoft. Unless the claim about their declining AAA/shovelware ratio is incorrect?
 
StuBurns said:
That is not such a bad idea I imagine though.

To a certain degree that's true, but there's ultimately just a limit to how many bite-sized mobile games a) can sell in total on the whole market and b) one company can have worthwhile ideas for. I don't think most existing console/PC developers could actually convert entirely to mobile development, from a practical perspective.
 
Sometimes I am amazed by how negative these "gaming" analyst are towards more traditional gaming and so over positive towards all things Apple.

Imagine if the camera industry proclaim continuously that "the future of photography is the iPhone!", that would be ridiculous. I am sure the iPhone will eat into the market of Nintendo or Nikon because of its multi-fuctional capability, but saying Nintendo and Nikon will eventually die because of that is a bit amateurish. There's always market for the different level of depths and experiences. It depends on how Nintendo and Nikon will change their strategy to counter this.

We also have to realize these analysts are usually business people that carry their iPhone with them 24/7 for business reasons, so there's also that bias in their opinions. They don't even mention other kind of smartphone or OS (Android, Symbian, Window etc) in their discussion as if the iPhone is the only thing existed.
 
It's amazing at how frequently the fact that much if not most of the DS's success was due to its broad market appeal, which it is losing inarguably to smartphones/tablets. Also, smartphones and similar devices will continue to become more capable at deeper gaming experiences, however, that may not even be necessary if mobile gaming habits shift towards a new paradigm better aligned with current ios/android gaming experiences. The recent surveys suggests that if owners of a DS and/or PSP are gaming more on their mobile devices, then a paradigm shift in gaming habits just might be happening.

Also, the argument of whether or not developers can find profit in the IOS environment is a non-starter; consumers show very little concern with the profitability of content providers in their purchasing patterns. I know "hardcore" portable gamers want it otherwise, but reality is moving further and further away from your positions.
 
BlueSummers said:
The best way to sell this system would be to have FF7 remake release with it on launch day. Gaf meltdowns would be glorious! :lol

I actually do expect FFVII remake on PSP2 (unless it craters), but no way for launch. Although it would be amazing.
 
FF7 remake on a handheld would be the biggest betrayalton since the FFXIII announcement, so I would love it for the sheer LOL factor.

(Also FFXV on PSP2 and/or 3DS, which I don't think is impossible at this point.)
 
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