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[donny2112]

Problem:
The U.K. charts that show the number of titles per week treat #1 equal to #40 (i.e. They both count 1 toward the total). This is obviously not a fair treatment as #1 is worth a lot more than #40.

However, how do we determine how much each position is worth without knowing the actual sales numbers? Answer: We can't ... exactly, but there may be a way to give a feel for how much weight each position actually holds. Hearkening back to a post I made many months ago in a PAL thread, I did some figuring.

Details for those interested:
1. Put the data into Excel.
2. Graphed it.
3. Added a power series trendline.

That came out with the equation y = 157472x^-0.828 with an R^2 value of 0.9846 (i.e. pretty close to the input data). Using that I came up with the following point system giving 20 points to #1 and 1 point to #40.

1. 20.00
2. 11.29
3. 8.09
4. 6.39
5. 5.32
6. 4.58
7. 4.04
8. 3.62
9. 3.29
10. 3.02
11. 2.80
12. 2.61
13. 2.44
14. 2.30
15. 2.18
16. 2.07
17. 1.97
18. 1.88
19. 1.80
20. 1.73
21. 1.66
22. 1.60
23. 1.55
24. 1.50
25. 1.45
26. 1.40
27. 1.36
28. 1.32
29. 1.29
30. 1.25
31. 1.22
32. 1.19
33. 1.16
34. 1.14
35. 1.11
36. 1.09
37. 1.06
38. 1.04
39. 1.02
40. 1.00

This is not an exact representation of the sales for positions 1-40. This is only meant as a, hopefully, better way to give weight to positions 1-40 than making them all worth the same. Take it as a guide and not an absolute.

Using this point system, here's another take on how each system has done for the past five weeks.

If people think this is useful, I'll try to keep it up in the PAL threads. Otherwise, this'll be a one-off thing.

 

[Arde5643]

I like this idea.

You got my vote on this one.

 

[Chumly]

Awesomesauce

Yes please keep doing it.

 

[rikitikitik]

Definitely much better. Good job!

 

[spwolf]

Europe doesn't seem to like GH all that much - too bad, fun game.

its expensive here, thats why... plus, we feel silly buying fake guitars and carrying them around .

 

[lopaz]

like the weighted chart, please carry on with it.

Yah UK doesn't like guitar hero that much, outside of the nerd crowd

 

[Lobster]

Sweden seems to like GH.

 

[Phife Dawg]

its expensive here, thats why... plus, we feel silly buying fake guitars and carrying them around .

I got it for cheap at Amazon (was cheap only for a short time when they were sold out). I wouldn't have paid 90 € for sure. Apart from being expensive I think the barrier is too high for the mass of people to get into this. Pretty much all my friend think the idea is fun but are intimidated once the notes start flying down.

My gf does think I'm silly playing with a plastic guitar (looks more like a Ukulele on me). But apart from puzzle games on the DS she is pretty much against video-games so this was to be expected.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

The spanish top10 is missing in action (should have been available like on Tuesday...), I doubt we'll get it this late and its a shame because its the DMC4 launch week. The ads had the X360 logo by the way.

Also, it seems next week PS3 will see another pack, 40GB + Uncharted + COD4 for 469€ (no 2nd sixaxis).

 

[Kosma]

Anecdotal evidence +1

The PS3 seems to have really taken of for no apparent reason in the last few weeks here in the Netherlands, normally it was just outselling the 360 by a small margin where I work but now demand has really increased while demand for 360 has all but dried up it seems. Don't know what to make of it.

 

[Wollan]

No apparant reason? It's 2008 baby.

 

[BishopLamont]

Anecdotal evidence +1

The PS3 seems to have really taken of for no apparent reason in the last few weeks here in the Netherlands, normally it was just outselling the 360 by a small margin where I work but now demand has really increased while demand for 360 has all but dried up it seems. Don't know what to make of it.

It begins...

Spoiler

again

 

[spwolf]

I got it for cheap at Amazon (was cheap only for a short time when they were sold out). I wouldn't have paid 90 € for sure. Apart from being expensive I think the barrier is too high for the mass of people to get into this. Pretty much all my friend think the idea is fun but are intimidated once the notes start flying down.

My gf does think I'm silly playing with a plastic guitar (looks more like a Ukulele on me). But apart from puzzle games on the DS she is pretty much against video-games so this was to be expected.

it probably has to do with trying it out. Like with Singstar - I thought everyone would be kind of embarrased to sing in front of others (we dont have Singstar kiosks here nobody saw anyone else playing Singstar ever, we dont have karaoke in the bars) and yet when I got it - shit, every fucking one wants to sing, even if they dont know how. It helps me encouraging them by being the laudest .

In US, GH is cultural phenomenon, so its well known.

 

[sakuragi]

Anecdotal evidence +1

The PS3 seems to have really taken of for no apparent reason in the last few weeks here in the Netherlands, normally it was just outselling the 360 by a small margin where I work but now demand has really increased while demand for 360 has all but dried up it seems. Don't know what to make of it.

Blu-ray's victory + the close release of MGS4 and GTA4.

 

[Vashu]

Anecdotal evidence +1

The PS3 seems to have really taken of for no apparent reason in the last few weeks here in the Netherlands, normally it was just outselling the 360 by a small margin where I work but now demand has really increased while demand for 360 has all but dried up it seems. Don't know what to make of it.

Let's see.. In the latest charts from 23-02-2008, you can see that sales of Burnout Paradise, Call of Duty 4 are higher on PS3. Last week, DMC4 also ranked higher (and fell out of the top 10 for all systems in the week after ) on the PS3. That, and the already mentioned Blu-Ray victory clearly shows there is a higher demand for the PS3.

On the PS3 only chart, you can see that Uncharted went up one spot, making it a game that continues to sell, mostly because it's so godawful beautiful and fun.

So no, I wouldn't say for no apparent reason.

I've also encountered more and more people willing to buy PS3. In the past, they had the excuse of saying it's too expensive (before the 200 Euro price-drop) and after that the system had no games. It's clear that the games are here now, and they are finally picking them up.

For us as gamers, this is only good news. It means more competition, which can result in more lucrative deals for us. But I wish Sony would finally provide us with the PSN Cards here in Europe, I want to battle my friends with Tekken 5 online!

Also: Lack of Patapon on the PSP Dutch charts is blasphemy! Dutchies, and I know you're here in droves, get that game!

 

[Raist]

Let's see.. In the latest charts from 23-02-2008

What have you done ? This is week 8 ! haaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Seriously GfK Benelux is always super early. I wish the other ones would follow the example

 

[reminder]

Also: Lack of Patapon on the PSP Dutch charts is blasphemy! Dutchies, and I know you're here in droves, get that game!

I think it comes out on february 27 here in europe

Still no guarantee the game will show up in the charts then, though

 

[Vashu]

I think it comes out on february 27 here in europe

Still no guarantee the game will show up in the charts then, though

I thought it was out last friday... *checks* Oh, ho! It's out on the 29th! Sorry, I've had that game for a week now, thanks to SCEE. Send it of to one of my editors last thursday. And here I thought we would be late with the review. Excellent news!

This does account for the lack of that game on the charts though, silly me. But, you're right. It could very well happen the game won't show up on the charts.

Also: If anyone can make a new PAL charts topic this week. Or should I start with a new one?

 

[Raist]

Also: If anyone can make a new PAL charts topic this week. Or should I start with a new one?

Felipeko or I will probably do it. We d'ont start it with dutch data because it's super early and wouldn't get updated until monday afternoon with UK data.

 

[BishopLamont]

UK: 01 (02) [NDS] Mario & Sonic At The Olympic Games (Sega)
Ireland: 01 (03) Mario & Sonic At The Olympic Games (Sega)
Netherlands: 01 (__) [NDS] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega)
Germany: 01 (02) [NDS] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega)
Australia: 01 [NDS] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega)

Sega must be happy as fuck.

 

[BishopLamont]

oops double post

 

[Majmun]

^

Holy shit.

4mln units will be easy. I never though it would happen.

 

[Elios83]

Here in Italy Sony is officially advertising a new bundle with the 40GB+Uncharted+Ratchet at 469€, so basically one game is free.
Moreover it's getting easy to find the unbundled 40GB PS3 at 379€.

 

[spwolf]

question: who thinks UT3 will even chart in UK? Or be in Top 10?
I have not seen an single ad or it on Sky, and it is currently 16th on Amazon PS3 list. You dont want to be using Amazon for tracking sales, but heck 16th among PS3 games?

Fucking Midway.

 

[ksamedi]

question: who thinks UT3 will even chart in UK? Or be in Top 10?
I have not seen an single ad or it on Sky, and it is currently 16th on Amazon PS3 list. You dont want to be using Amazon for tracking sales, but heck 16th among PS3 games?

Fucking Midway.

Didn't it do quite bad on the PC as well?. I think the game is getting old and its overpriced as well. I doubt that advertisement could save it.

 

[sphinx]

people laughed at me when I said PS3 had a legit, honest, real chance to compete in Europe against the Wii and that it was guaranteed that it would beat the 360 everywhere in the continent.

just a couple of months more..... just a couple more.

 

[Kenka]

UK: 01 (02) [NDS] Mario & Sonic At The Olympic Games (Sega)
Ireland: 01 (03) Mario & Sonic At The Olympic Games (Sega)
Netherlands: 01 (__) [NDS] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega)
Germany: 01 (02) [NDS] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega)
Australia: 01 [NDS] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega)

How in the holy blackhole of cow can Sega sell so many M&S @ Olympics ?


It's crazy. the two versions will outsell Halo 3 in Europe. And MGS4. And DMC4. And GT5. And GTA4 (maybe). A bukkake wouldn't be as disgusting.

 

[spwolf]

Didn't it do quite bad on the PC as well?. I think the game is getting old and its overpriced as well. I doubt that advertisement could save it.

game got good reviews everywhere. It didnt get ads anywhere.

I can understand that in US - as Midway did not know when will the game be released. But they knew Euro release for a long time now and could have prepared.

They are just letting it sell to loyal customer base.

 

[reminder]

I see a lot of ads for UT III on MTV here in germany since last tuesday or wednesday.

 

[test_account]

I saw some UT3 ads a while ago on Discovery Channel, but then the PS3 version wasnt out yet here in Europe. I cant recall seeing any PS3 logos or so in the commercial too so i guess it was mainly a PC commercial.

UT3 (both the PC and the PS3 version) has shipped over 1.2 million copies so i guess its been doing pretty good overall. Yes i know shipped isnt sold, but i dont think they overship stuff like crazy.

 

[Sadist]

Man, my country has no taste whatsoever.

 

[nli10]

How in the holy blackhole of cow can Sega sell so many M&S @ Olympics ?


It's crazy. the two versions will outsell Halo 3 in Europe. And MGS4. And DMC4. And GT5. And GTA4 (maybe). A bukkake wouldn't be as disgusting.

Mario
Sonic
Olympics
Family Console

Vs

Master Chief
Teenage Boys

No contest really...

Problem:
The U.K. charts that show the number of titles per week treat #1 equal to #40 (i.e. They both count 1 toward the total). This is obviously not a fair treatment as #1 is worth a lot more than #40.

...

If people think this is useful, I'll try to keep it up in the PAL threads. Otherwise, this'll be a one-off thing.

Fantastic - nice to see proper analysis Seems to old up very well too.

Have you tried it out on the proportional data we have from places like ELSPA for multiformat games such as COD4 to see if the rough proportions hold up? There's a very good chance it won't due to positions on high sales Xmas weeks meaning their "20s" would be worth more (as you probably know proportional analysis isn't meant to combine week on week though) but if it's an easy thing to add up for selected titles it might be interesting.

 

[spwolf]

I see a lot of ads for UT III on MTV here in germany since last tuesday or wednesday.

good, i would expect it to do decent in germany...

 

[Danielsan]

Man, my country has no taste whatsoever.

All it takes is a quick glance at the top 40 music charts to confirm that.

 

[donny2112]

Have you tried it out on the proportional data we have from places like ELSPA for multiformat games such as COD4 to see if the rough proportions hold up?

I haven't done that detailed an examination, but I wouldn't recommend using this as a direct correlation to units, anyways. This is basically just trying to do a slightly better comparison than using "1" for each position. As seen in the Media-Create threads, some weeks will have a #1 with 90K units, and other weeks will have #1 with 300K units. Both of those weeks might have #5 at 25K, though.

There's a very good chance it won't due to positions on high sales Xmas weeks meaning their "20s" would be worth more

That's why I didn't go back to the Christmas weeks. I figure the sales are more steady/comparable week-on-week now than in that period. The better way to really compare between weeks, though, is with units, but that's unlikely to happen anytime soon.

(as you probably know proportional analysis isn't meant to combine week on week though)

For the graph, I'll probably keep a rolling window of 10 weeks with the last week being empty. This was originally intended to keep the graph from becoming too cluttered, but it should also keep it from extending too often into high sales periods that would throw the proportions completely out the window. You're correct in that this still doesn't allow true comparisons week-on-week, but, as I said earlier, I see this just as, hopefully, a step up from using "1" for each position.

Thanks for the positive responses, everyone.

 

[nli10]

, I see this just as, hopefully, a step up from using "1" for each position.

Thanks for the positive responses, everyone.

I agree, it adds a welcome depth - nice work


I'd rather have the top 40s of free data 48 hours after the Tills close on a Saturday with 80% sample size, than the USA's massive delay but more detailed top 10 from 50% of the market.

 

[spwolf]

I agree, it adds a welcome depth - nice work


I'd rather have the top 40s of free data 48 hours after the Tills close on a Saturday with 80% sample size, than the USA's massive delay but more detailed top 10 from 50% of the market.

but in US you actually have real data. Here you get positions which mean nothing unless they throw us an bone.

sure its fun.

 

[Sadist]

All it takes is a quick glance at the top 40 music charts to confirm that.

God I hate TMF. :'(

 

[nli10]

but in US you actually have real data. Here you get positions which mean nothing unless they throw us an bone.

sure its fun.

Both data are real, but I prefer real time data with less modelling that goes down to further positions (unless there are free, individual top 30 charts for the USA data I missed?) to delayed data with more extrapolation. It's a personal choice thing though - I understand it both ways. With company PR and ELSPA monthly updates the UK wins for me.

The gaps in both data-sets are the reason that I stick to analysing at work and haven't tried to start modelling situations here (At work I have live access to 10 years plus of data and get paid - hooray!).

 

[Jokeropia]

people laughed at me when I said PS3 had a legit, honest, real chance to compete in Europe against the Wii and that it was guaranteed that it would beat the 360 everywhere in the continent.

Yes? I'd say the first part of the statement is still quite unfounded.

 

[Arde5643]

Yes? I'd say the first part of the statement is still quite unfounded.

More like very dumb-founded.

PS3 beating 360 in EU - possibility.
PS3 beating Wii in EU - dream on, unless you account only places where PS3 is winning.

 

[donny2112]

PS3 beating Wii in EU - dream on, unless you account only places where PS3 is winning.

By my PAL/Other (i.e. more than just EU) estimates if you synch the launch dates, I have the PS3 being less than 300K behind the Wii at the same point in their respective lifespans. The catch is that the PS3 just went through its first Christmas, whereas the Wii synched launch line will be going through its first non-launch Christmas over the next two months. I wouldn't say it is impossible for the PS3 to come back in the EU, but it would probably take the Wii almost collapsing to do so.

 

[Kenka]

Sorry to be so impatient but don't we have any numbers yet ?

 

[BishopLamont]

Sorry to be so impatient but don't we have any numbers yet ?

We do not get numbers. Now if you're after charts then wait another hour.

 

[farnham]

How much has the PS3 sold in Europe.. I know that the Wii sold about 6 million units..

 

[ram]

good, i would expect it to do decent in germany...

its censored over here (no blood gore exept in cutscenes) - everyone imports their game from north america and/or eu.

 

[f@luS]

More like very dumb-founded.

PS3 beating 360 in EU - possibility.
PS3 beating Wii in EU - dream on, unless you account only places where PS3 is winning.

PS3 beating 360 in EU - already
PS3 beating WII in EU - i honestly think that within 2 years its possible. PS3@ 200/300€ is gonna sells like pokemon cards.

 

[HK-47]

PS3 beating 360 in EU - already
PS3 beating WII in EU - i honestly think that within 2 years its possible. PS3@ 200/300€ is gonna sells like pokemon cards.

And a cheaper Wii will sell like...really super popular pokemon cards?

 

[BishopLamont]

And a cheaper Wii will sell like...really super popular pokemon cards?

And cheaper pokemon cards will sell like...oh nevermind.

 

[f@luS]

And a cheaper Wii will sell like...really super popular pokemon cards?

Price is already pretty low. Its just that PS3 and 360 are really costing too much