Support NeoGAF

[bender]

What the fuck is going on over there at Xbox?

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Its because they cant, nobody cant

If you are big on mobile is because of luck, there is no formula or something like that

Zynga, Rovio and many companies dont even know how they got succesful

Chasing mobile like their main source of revenue is beyond stupid

Zynga is a better example than Rovio, they've been able to monetize consistently. It's not all luck.

Sony thinks they can pivot organically to mobile like Marvel pivoted to movies. I just don't think it's going to be successful. Microsoft wants to pull a Disney and buy Star Wars and Marvel and that's how they will pivot.

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

Phill: we have this beautiful Xbox service

 

[noise36]

wtf is with people starting all these threads based on internal MS emails pretending each one is some huge megaton bombshell.

You would find this kind of stuff in any business in any industry talking about their competitors and their strategies.

 

[Varteras]

Damn son.

Buddy, if you have seen a fair number of my posts, you know I'm pretty far from a green rat. Just got into it with one earlier, as a matter of fact.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Mobile is literally a Money Machine if the Game is a Hit, just need to see Mihoyo. A fucking 60% profit margin

Genshin Impact developer miHoYo generated more profit in 2022 than Activision Blizzard, EA, and Embracer | Game World Observer

miHoYo is a private company, so it doesn’t have to release financial statements. However, Chinese media recently disclosed some information about the Genshin Impact developer’s revenue and profit.

gameworldobserver.com

Remember when it was announced and it was just billed as a poor ripoff of breath of the wild?

 

[Del_X]

Leadership at organization thinks of possibilities? Say it ain’t so

 

[Mibu no ookami]

wtf is with people starting all these threads based on internal MS emails pretending each one is some huge megaton bombshell.

You would find this kind of stuff in any business in any industry talking about their competitors and their strategies.

Yes, it's normal to suggest shutting down operations and starting a completely different line of business...

Come on now...

 

[Varteras]

There really isn't a middle answer, but Microsoft's answer is MORE likely to work than Sony's.

Sony tried to get into the mobile market with forwardworks and they failed miserably because they were one toe in and one toe out.

SME has had more success with mobile than SIE with Fate/Stay.

This is why I've said Sony if they're really interested need to buy T2/Zynga because it's really their only option of getting into the game in a major way at this point. Sony Group has to ask themselves if they want to be in a similar position with SIE as they are with Sony Pictures today.

I'm really starting to see the wisdom in what your were saying a while ago, back when you were talking about Sony spinning off their financial arm. That their move may very well be T2. It makes way more sense than just GTA and some more studios. Cracking into mobile in a big way is virtually impossible without taking an obscene amount of time and hope.

 

[Del_X]

He’s literally saying that is what it would take to win at mobile - they don’t have the budget for both.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

I'm starting to feel sorry for Phil. You could see his mental health starting to take a hit in his post-Redfall interview. So much of this shit he will never live down, about him or those around him, and I hope he holds it together.

I think the MS money will keep him more than fine. Granted, money definitely isn't everything, and can't buy happiness (though it can help you buy some of the things that in turn might bring you happiness).

Phil Spencer knows the stresses and responsibilities that come with his job, same as with Jim Ryan. Although I do wonder if people had similar sentiments for the well-being of SIE CEOs when the PS3 was struggling, or Sony CEOs in general when the entire company was going through multiple bad things at once in the mid-late '00s. By comparison I think Phil Spencer has it easy.

The truth is he's been heading Xbox one way or another for 10 years and if he had made better decisions, or surrounded himself with people making better decisions, he wouldn't be facing the pressure and stress he is today. But he still has his family, his friends, his hobbies etc. He can still take vacations I'm sure, and if the stress is particularly bad, he can hire a professional psychiatrist to talk it out with.

 

[noise36]

Yes, it's normal to suggest shutting down operations and starting a completely different line of business...

Come on now...

Its normal for any business to talk through anything and everything.

 

[XesqueVara]

Remember when it was announced and it was just billed as a poor ripoff of breath of the wild?

Yeah and now this game alone is making Over 3B$ per year.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Imagine if Microsoft had their own phones and mobile OS. Oh wait....

The world is fortunate that MS was typically inept and did nothing but run all their phone ideas into the ground. Say what you will about Apple and Google, they are both a million times better than having MS monopolizing our phones.

 

[clintar]

Sony at it again

 

[rapid32.5]

Looks like MS leadership does not know what they have been doing, no wonder this gen will only start on September 6 for them, thanks to Bethesda. One generation chased after Kinect, movies, and then mobile there is no clear goal it seems, or unity in these decisions, thus no success in gaming.

 

[Darsxx82]

Yes, it's normal to suggest shutting down operations and starting a completely different line of business...

Come on now...

He's not suggesting anything there, he's describing the level of resources they would need if they wanted to compete in the mobile market. And it was 2019.

It is very different from considering the option of ending Xbox and moving all resources to the mobile gaming market.

Otherwise you not would explain the purchase of Bethesda and the development of new consoles (XSeries) if that had been a real suggestion.

The email the only thing that would explain and prove the interest of MS in ABK is focused especially on its mobile business

 

[bender]

Buddy, if you have seen a fair number of my posts, you know I'm pretty far from a green rat. Just got into it with one earlier, as a matter of fact.

Sounds exactly like something a green rat would say.

 

[FrankWza]

Sounds exactly like something a green rat would say.

Nah. He's shown us his sock drawer.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I'm really starting to see the wisdom in what your were saying a while ago, back when you were talking about Sony spinning off their financial arm. That their move may very well be T2. It makes way more sense than just GTA and some more studios. Cracking into mobile in a big way is virtually impossible without taking an obscene amount of time and hope.

You look at the list of companies Sony could buy to get into the top 10 in mobile and it becomes clear what their options are

based on 2021 revenue

1.	Tencent	China	$27.888 billion
2.	Netease	China	$10.048 billion
3.	Garena	Singapore	$4.320 billion
4.	Activision Blizzard	United States	$3.182 billion
5.	Cygames	Japan	$2.282 billion
6.	Zynga	United States	$2.250 billion
7.	Supercell	Finland	$2.240 billion
8.	miHoYo	China	$1.495 billion
9.	Niantic	United States	$909 million
10.	Electronic Arts	United States	$718 million

Cygames and T2/Zynga are really the only realistic options. Cygames is owned by CyberAgent which is worth about 3 billion USD. CyberAgent owns 69% of Cygames.

You look at FF14 and it's not on mobile. You could argue that the next big Square Enix MMORPG will be a F2P MMO that will scale to mobile... and that will generate way more money.

 

[bender]

Nah. He's shown us his sock drawer.

Still weird how that one sock could stand up under its' own power.

 

[Hawking Radiation]

 

[Nydius]

Because of emails today we’ve gone from “Xbox is doooooooomed!” to “Console gaming is doooooooomed because of mobile!”.

Think I’m done with this drama for today. Some of you have gone completely around the bend with your prognostications.

 

[mrcroket]

It’s not Phil’s speculation - it is what they’re doing.

ATVI will mean about half of MS gaming revenue is from mobile overnight. Couple that with the GP and cloud strategy and Phil’s comments in these docs.

Remember the “we are not in the business of out consoling Sony or Nintendo” - one of the few times Phil said exactly what MS were doing.

Xbox custom hardware is obsolescent as far as MS is concerned. The comments about xsex being the pro for this gen confirm that. They don’t want to make another one.

MS is buying these publishers and franchises and then dumbing them down for mobile - this document explains that too. Pointing out that Google sheets is better for more users than excel and they want that same success in gaming. They’re hoping xbox console fans will do the heavy lifting of paying and evangelising for them.

But MS don’t want the console gamers - they want the gamers Apple and google get a slice of. MS were too busy fighting Sony and missed the real money in gaming - they’re trying to break their way in.

That’s fine. I’m all for it and I’ll happily wave MS on to their new pastures.

But while MS is busy trying to pivot to their next gaming failure, they’ll fuck with our corner of the hobby on their way out because we “traditional gamers” aren’t interesting to them now. They even trained their own customers not to buy games anymore.

The move away from consoles for MS has been one of the few things they’ve actually been honest about the last few years.

I have seen less far-fetched conspiracy theories. First, we don't know if that email is true or not, and even if it is, it's something that remained just a thought.

Microsoft has spent an absurd billion to buy bethesda and intends to buy activision, the biggest big budget video game company. The games that work on mobile (and the target of those games) is totally different from the market of the big productions.

It doesn't make sense that they spent that millionaire in buying those studios to make mobile games, if Microsoft wanted to bet strongly for that market they would have spent that money in buying Gameloft, King or Mihoyo.

And as I said they are different markets, the sagas that work on consoles do not have to do it on mobiles and vice versa, and although it is true that the mobile market moves more money, in the console market, even going third, they have a good consolidated market.

 

[bender]

First, we don't know if that email is true or not

 

[Mochilador]

Speculated and then they seem to have concluded they can't substantially take over that game, so it's likely not going anywhere

Eh, we all have thoughts, not reading too much into this

Yep, it's right there:

...and you're right we can't play in that game.

 

[Vroadstar]

This kids is why we call it SonyGaf.

I own them all but mostly just play Civ6 on PC (RTX 3080) The kids play switch or xbox, PS5 gathers dust.

Yikes!

wtf is with people starting all these threads based on internal MS emails pretending each one is some huge megaton bombshell.

You would find this kind of stuff in any business in any industry talking about their competitors and their strategies.

 

[Varteras]

Sounds exactly like something a green rat would say.

Nah. He's shown us his sock drawer.

 

[lh032]

Tbh ,I believe making a mobile game require less expenses and budget

And if the mobile game works ,it's big money .

From a businessman perspective ,it makes sense

 

[Varteras]

You look at the list of companies Sony could buy to get into the top 10 in mobile and it becomes clear what their options are

based on 2021 revenue

1.	Tencent	China	$27.888 billion
2.	Netease	China	$10.048 billion
3.	Garena	Singapore	$4.320 billion
4.	Activision Blizzard	United States	$3.182 billion
5.	Cygames	Japan	$2.282 billion
6.	Zynga	United States	$2.250 billion
7.	Supercell	Finland	$2.240 billion
8.	miHoYo	China	$1.495 billion
9.	Niantic	United States	$909 million
10.	Electronic Arts	United States	$718 million

Cygames and T2/Zynga are really the only realistic options. Cygames is owned by CyberAgent which is worth about 3 billion USD. CyberAgent owns 69% of Cygames.

You look at FF14 and it's not on mobile. You could argue that the next big Square Enix MMORPG will be a F2P MMO that will scale to mobile... and that will generate way more money.

And Sony wouldn't need to make such a big move in order to grab CA or even SE. T2, on the other hand, would require a lot more capital. But it also gives them a greater overall benefit than I think CA would. Mobile would be comparable. But console, PC, and their IP expansion would be better served with T2. What would be the regulatory pushback on that, though? I could see Sony getting away with CA and SE combined. But T2 feels like that might be a bit of a fight. Not to mention, I'm not a fan of the idea of another big Western publisher being bought. Though I suppose my personal feelings don't matter here.

 

[Crayon]

I like the part where he says they have no strategy because he can't come up with one. That made me smile.

 

[Freelance Yakuza]

Same old excuses.

It's been clear as day what Xbox has planned here.

The clear and present danger GamePass poses to traditional gaming can't be overstated.

They want to turn GamePass into Netflix, raise the price, lower the cost of content, be platform agnostic.

The problem is Sony and Nintendo are in their way, particularly Sony. They know they've lost the "console war" and they bet big on xCloud and GamePass instead. It's the reason why they raised prices on GamePass on Xbox but not PC. Ultimately, they want more adoption on PC and Mobile. Xbox is a means to an end for Microsoft.

Sony knows the same thing, but their strategy is still firmly rooted in traditional gaming (for now), but their big GaaS push is because of games like Fortnite, GTA Online, and Red Dead Online.

Mobile is eating their lunch and console is a small crumb of the overall cookie. The free ride for GamePass on console is slowly coming to an end and Xbox fans will slowly but surely realize that. Right now they're trying to boil the frog, which is what you have to do with subscription services. Look at Netflix they've raised prices about as much as they can, so what did they do, they went after password sharers with the belief that it would increase subscribers and at least in the short term they were right.

People don't learn from history. Microsoft has never won any generation, yet a tie (X360 vs PS3) plus the astronomical sales of Kinect made them think they could eliminate used games and enforce always-online.

Imagine if they became the leaders.

 

[justiceiro]

As a Xbox owner, I'm starting to root for this deal to not go through.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

People don't learn from history. Microsoft has never won any generation, yet a tie (X360 vs PS3) plus the astronomical sales of Kinect made them think they could eliminate used games and enforce always-online.

Imagine if they became the leaders.

They'll be charging 25 dollars a month for what people just experienced for the last 18+ months on Xbox Series and 3rd parties will either have to join in or they'll have their own subscription services, but B2P will be dead. Their goal is to put Sony under so they can actually grow their console business.

They probably genuinely mean keeping CoD on PS, the B2P revenue is too sweet to pass up, but make no mistake GamePass will be the place to play CoD.

 

[Three]

Looks like MS leadership does not know what they have been doing, no wonder this gen will only start on September 6 for them, thanks to Bethesda. One generation chased after Kinect, movies, and then mobile there is no clear goal it seems, or unity in these decisions, thus no success in gaming.

They are doing what they do best. Chasing the mainstream at the expense of the hardcore. That's why kinect happened and their games dried up, that's why they have no interest in VR, and that's why they're discussing mobile at the expense of console. They don't care about the creative side of things, only numbers.

 

[ToadMan]

I have seen less far-fetched conspiracy theories. First, we don't know if that email is true or not, and even if it is, it's something that remained just a thought.

It’s evidence in a federal court lawsuit.

Microsoft has spent an absurd billion to buy bethesda and intends to buy activision, the biggest big budget video game company. The games that work on mobile (and the target of those games) is totally different from the market of the big productions.

Other court documents show MS excitement at the revenue generated by COD mobile discussing the rise of chinese F2P mobile games.

The acquisition of zeni and abk is not incompatible with mobile. In fact Phil even discusses the possibility of transitioning existing xbox console users to mobile and cloud gaming. But he goes on to say that is not sufficient for the growth they want - they need casuals.

It doesn't make sense that they spent that millionaire in buying those studios to make mobile games, if Microsoft wanted to bet strongly for that market they would have spent that money in buying Gameloft, King or Mihoyo.

And as I said they are different markets, the sagas that work on consoles do not have to do it on mobiles and vice versa, and although it is true that the mobile market moves more money, in the console market, even going third, they have a good consolidated market.

With cloud, they are not different markets.

And yet another court document has Phil talking about constraints on console volume to trade off against cloud uptake…

Xbox custom hardware is a dead end - MS wants those customers to move to cloud - to do that, they’ll make their content casual and mobile friendly.

And in doing that they’ll take well known and enjoyed IPs from us and butcher them.

 

[The Inventor]

Cannot get my head around it. Am I that old...?

 

[Mibu no ookami]

And Sony wouldn't need to make such a big move in order to grab CA or even SE. T2, on the other hand, would require a lot more capital. But it also gives them a greater overall benefit than I think CA would. Mobile would be comparable. But console, PC, and their IP expansion would be better served with T2. What would be the regulatory pushback on that, though? I could see Sony getting away with CA and SE combined. But T2 feels like that might be a bit of a fight. Not to mention, I'm not a fan of the idea of another big Western publisher being bought. Though I suppose my personal feelings don't matter here.

I don't think there would be push back or requirement for divestiture if Sony bought T2.

Many of the games will be required to be multiplatform by the license holders.

The big games of question would be GTA and Red Dead, and I don't think given their timespans between releases regulators will consider them market crucial and also based on where GTA sold, unlikely for Sony not to release at least on PC.

Red Dead is the only game that might end up exclusive, but again, you'd have to imagine the next red dead online on mobile as well as console/PC.

If Sony goes after T2 it means they're becoming a gaming company first and foremost.

I think we'll see Sony strategy within 12 months of this deal closing or being blocked. So we could hear this as soon as September.

I also think Sony can make an argument that it's a defensive move to prevent Microsoft from locking them out of the industry, which would at least make it difficult for regulators to allow Microsoft from later purchasing T2 or any like sized publisher.

 

[bitbydeath]

As a Xbox owner, I'm starting to root for this deal to not go through.

Considering all the support the deal has gotten from Xbox fans, it would be quite the twist if the deal going through leads to Microsoft closing down Xbox.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

Xbox business is doing great
Xbox business is doing bad
-Phil.

 

[semiconscious]

“I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said Phil. “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed in six impossible thought experiments before breakfast.”

- phil's adventures in wonderland / through the looking glass

 

[skit_data]

It would have been an interesting experiment, if only to see which people would have blindly followed them over to mobile gaming.

Oh god, no! We would see a huge influx of astroturfers defile this forum with discussions on the benefits of mobile gaming vs other platforms, it would be a horror beyond imagination

 

[Heisenberg007]

It would have been an interesting experiment, if only to see which people would have blindly followed them over to mobile gaming.

"Nothing surprising. It was always the plan."

 

[Heisenberg007]

I've already said that the Xbox console hardware division is in its last days, and Xbox, as we know it, is already changing. My prediction/theory is on record here.

 

[gimmmick]

Jesus Christ. How is this guy in a position of power for the company?

 

[solidus12]

 

[Fredrik]

Hmm they really don’t have a longterm plan at all, do they? Glad I’ve not bought a single game from them this generation and just freeload on Gamepass. All of a sudden the bought content could be gone from the sound of it. And Kotick wanted to do the same thing with Activision Blizzard. Why? Don’t they print money with COD every year?

 

[HerjansEagleFeeder]

If this reaches mindshare beyond your average gaming forum online, Microsoft could be taking even more damage than they did when they introduced the One.

 

[azertydu91]

Hmm they really don’t have a longterm plan at all, do they? Glad I’ve not bought a single game from them this generation and just freeload on Gamepass. All of a sudden the bought content could be gone from the sound of it. And Kotick wanted to do the same thing with Activision Blizzard. Why? Don’t they print money with COD every year?

They do but they do way more with mobile and with what I guess is a fraction of the cost of any COD.So the ratio cost/profit might be extremely in favor of mobile and again I guess with whale hunting (is that a saying in english too? the players that will spend an enormous amount of money on MTX)

 

[Ozriel]

wtf is with people starting all these threads based on internal MS emails pretending each one is some huge megaton bombshell.

You would find this kind of stuff in any business in any industry talking about their competitors and their strategies.

All the spin from people switching daily between “Xbox is going to monopolize console gaming” and “Xbox is going to close down console and become third party as they go mobile”

This mail doesn’t even say what the thread title says it does, and in court will actually support their argument that the Activision deal was primarily focused on mobile and not COD exclusivity. Probably why the FTC lawyers didn’t bring it up.