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[BluRayHiDef]

Out of the total number of units of the PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X that will be sold, what percentage do you think will be the PlayStation 5 and what percentage do you think will be the Xbox Series X? Also, what do you think the actual number of units for each console will be?

 

[MayauMiao]

I pick PS5 90% if you're talking about worldwide, and PS5 75% if its the US only.

 

[greencoder]

PS5 ~60% and XSX ~40%. We are (will be) in a global crisis, so people would rather buy services like GamePass than buy games. So Xbox will have its cake. But no way 50-50, PS brand is too strong worldwide.

 

[Ten_Fold]

If Microsoft price is good and has some unique launch titles, and launch window games I could see ps5 at 60% and Microsoft at 40

 

[DynamiteCop!]

Instead of the 2.1:1 split we see today I'd assume it will be more in the 1.4:1 ratio.

 

[martino]

this poll has only one sane choice withe the range proposed all the other being delusional fan fiction.

 

[BluRayHiDef]

this poll has only one sane choice withe the range proposed all the other being delusional fan fiction.

I've added four more options.

 

[quest]

PS5 65% series x 35% sounds about right overall. I don't think the new studios will get games out fast enough to make a huge dent.

 

[Deleted member 740922]

PS5 60ish / XSX 40 ish I'm guessing.

 

[Bernkastel]

PS5 would still sell more than XSX. But the gap this time will be much closer.

 

[K1ngP3n]

PS5=60/XBSX=40

 

[Ne0gotenks]

hoooray, another format war, gas-lighting post.

 

[Hendrick's]

60 PS5 / 40 XSX sounds about right.

 

[Kerotan]

70/30. Its going to be a very dominant gen for PlayStation just like the last.

 

[TLZ]

I'll go with PS5 60/40 XSX.

 

[hunthunt]

60% vs %40 is the only correct answer and we know it.

 

[Birdo]

I was just sat here, thinking to myself, that we needed another console war thread on NeoGaf. It's been a while.

 

[DynamiteCop!]

70/30. Its going to be a very dominant gen for PlayStation just like the last.

Not to detract from your opinion here but what makes you arrive at a thought like this?

They have like 20 studios/teams working on games now, they have the most powerful console at launch, it's launching with what looks to be a soft reboot of the most expensive Halo game ever, the system is backward compatible with everything, it will improve Xbox One games, they've basically restored all good will, the platform is hemorrhaging with quality of life features and services...

I just don't see how you think they're in an Xbox One position again.

 

[LazyParrot]

I expect Sony to reach ~60% in the US, ~70% in Europe, and ~99% in Japan.

 

[Sosokrates]

Xbox is gonna go back to the 360 days in terms of sales.

 

[Mokus]

70/30 for the PlayStation 5. Very likely that the Xbox SX will be stuck in US like his predecessor.

Plus the next Nintendo console also will outsell the the Xbox in the same fashion as the Switch did.

 

[Psykodad]

Both will sell out day 1, so it's just a matter of who will have more units available.

If availability is equal, 50/50.

Edit:

Completely misread OP. Thought it was about launch.

In total, I'm just going with 60/40 for PS5.
70/30 for PS5 if Series S is real for day 1.

 

[Sosokrates]

70/30 for the PlayStation 5. Very likely that the Xbox SX will be stuck in US like his predecessor.

Plus the next Nintendo console also will outsell the the Xbox in the same fashion as the Switch did.

No way xbox next gen does the same as the X1.

 

[Entroyp]

Xbox is gonna go back to the 360 days in terms of sales.

Actually, this makes sense. None will reach 100+ million sold and the split will be close to 50/50 in the US and 60/40 around the world... I think.

 

[Mokus]

No way xbox next gen does the same as the X1.

The same, definitely not. In the US I think it's going to be a close 50/50. But in other regions it's hard to see things will improve much... for now.

 

[Bonfires Down]

I can't see Sony outselling MS by 2:1 or more this time, so 60/40 it is.

In total, I'm just going with 60/40 for PS5.
70/30 for PS5 if Series S is real for day 1.

I don't quite get this. There's no way MS is going to let Series S hold back the Series X.

 

[Sosokrates]

The same, definitely not. In the US I think it's going to be a close 50/50. But in other regions it's hard to see things will improve much... for now.

Europe, canada, mexico, and other places will def improve.
Sony does better in europe, but the 360 did quite well there.

 

[BluRayHiDef]

Xbox is gonna go back to the 360 days in terms of sales.

The Xbox 360 sold as many units as it did only because of its high rate of hardware failure (i.e. the Red Ring of Doom); a lot of people bought a new unit when their first one broke down, and in some cases bought additional units when their replacements broke down. One could estimate that close to half of the Xbox 360's 85 million sold units were replacements, which would indicate that the platform's install base was only around 42.5 million, which is believable since that's close to the 47 million units that its successor, the Xbox One, sold. This further indicates that the number of new adopters of the Xbox platform during the current generation is very low and that most of the people who bought an Xbox One were the same people who bought an Xbox 360 (or multiple Xbox 360s to replace their defective ones). Hence, it's likely that only these same people will buy the Xbox Series X and that Xbox as a brand appeals to only a minority of console gamers and isn't a respectable competitor to PlayStation.

 

[dolabla]

I've said I think this gen will be more like PS3 vs. 360 gen. Playstation is the bigger brand worldwide so it will outsell the XSX. I think it will be more like a 60/40 split for the PS5.

I know one thing, after the initial disappointment in their showing a few weeks back (between the confusion of backwards compatibility, the 10 teraflops news, etc), my hype is starting to grow again. That controller has definitely ramped things up as I'm pretty freaking excited about that (it also makes me wonder what the console looks like). If they could announce all gen backwards compatibility (PS1-PS4) then my hype will sky rocket.

 

[Sosokrates]

The Xbox 360 sold as many units as it did only because of its high rate of hardware failure (i.e. the Red Ring of Doom); a lot of people bought a new unit when their first one broke down, and in some cases bought additional units when their replacements broke down. One could estimate that close to half of the Xbox 360's 85 million sold units were replacements, which would indicate that the platform's install base was only around 42.5 million, which is believable since that's close to the 47 million units that its successor, the Xbox One, sold. This further indicates that the number of new adopters of the Xbox platform during the current generation is very low and that most of the people who bought an Xbox One were the same people who bought an Xbox 360 (or multiple Xbox 360s to replace their defective ones). Hence, it's likely that only these same people will buy the Xbox Series X and that Xbox as a brand appeals to only a minority of console gamers and isn't a respectable competitor to PlayStation.

And your evidence supporting this, is?

 

[ZywyPL]

I'd say around 60:40 in favor of PS5.

 

[Self High Five]

As most stated, 60/40 sounds about right. Even though MS made a number of bad decisions leading up to the last launch, the result of the current split is due to Sony not screwing up (launching a year late, significantly more expensive, exotic hardware, etc)

MS did a good job solidifying their userbase in recent years with BC, gamepass, and powerful hardware with the One X. But I don't see any growth for them in the near future if Sony does a safe launch and continue their same strategy.

MS will actually lose marketshare on the console front due to their PC strategy but it will be relatively minor since the PC/Console fanbase are so segregated & MS will likely make up for it with their new revenue streams from PC gamers who would never bought an Xbox to begin with.

 

[diffusionx]

The current generation is what, 2/3rds or so estimated and that is considered a total wipeout. I voted for 60/40 but if all MS can do with all this investment is claw back 5% more market share, that would be really bad. Even if market share isn't their focus.

I think it will be 55-45 or so.

 

[GymWolf]

comprise? what does it mean?

 

[CLW]

I'd say PS5 with a comfortable lead depending on price I'd put it between 60-40 and 70-30 in favor of Sony.

 

[martino]

Europe, canada, mexico, and other places will def improve.
Sony does better in europe, but the 360 did quite well there.

360 had exclusives.I think they will lost a lot of people playing them on pc
hardware sales will not be what matter the most to MS or they are not using the right strategy.
and how will you count the subscribed one ? if they are any.

 

[Dr.brain64]

90% ps5.

The xbox brand has been in serious decline for a while now. Phill needs a miracle.

 

[BluRayHiDef]

And your evidence supporting this, is?

LINK: https://blog.seattlepi.com/microsoft/2009/08/19/survey-xbox-360-failure-rate-is-54-2/

LINK: https://wayback.archive-it.org/all/20160429125635/http://www.1up.com/news/tale-11-broken-360s

 

[Sota4077]

Well this is a pretty subtle way of making a thread that should have just been titled "Who do you think will sell more consoles next gen and how many?"

 

[Justin9mm]

All I know is, if it wasn't for the One X and Game Pass, Xbox would be fucked!

 

[Arkam]

The Xbox 360 sold as many units as it did only because of its high rate of hardware failure (i.e. the Red Ring of Doom); a lot of people bought a new unit when their first one broke down, and in some cases bought additional units when their replacements broke down. One could estimate that close to half of the Xbox 360's 85 million sold units were replacements, which would indicate that the platform's install base was only around 42.5 million, which is believable since that's close to the 47 million units that its successor, the Xbox One, sold. This further indicates that the number of new adopters of the Xbox platform during the current generation is very low and that most of the people who bought an Xbox One were the same people who bought an Xbox 360 (or multiple Xbox 360s to replace their defective ones). Hence, it's likely that only these same people will buy the Xbox Series X and that Xbox as a brand appeals to only a minority of console gamers and isn't a respectable competitor to PlayStation.

That and for just about the entire gen most studios did what mine did. Make the game for Xbox360 (cuz it was easier) and then get it to work on PS3(cuz it was a pain in the ass). So most third party games ran much better on the Xbox360. Thats definitely not the case this gen. I see it being close to last gen sales and it will come down to first party game offerings to sway the needle one way or the other.


*Oh and Xbox Live was a real pioneer for that gen. PSN only caught up this gen.

 

[BluRayHiDef]

That and for just about the entire gen most studios did what mine did. Make the game for Xbox360 (cuz it was easier) and then get it to work on PS3(cuz it was a pain in the ass). So most third party games ran much better on the Xbox360. Thats definitely not the case this gen. I see it being close to last gen sales and it will come down to first party game offerings to sway the needle one way or the other.


*Oh and Xbox Live was a real pioneer for that gen. PSN only caught up this gen.

What studio do you work for and what exactly do you do?

 

[johntown]

I think there could be a small shift towards Xbox but the majority of people are going to stay with their current systems.

 

[DESTROYA]

It all depends on price

 

[Arkam]

What studio do you work for and what exactly do you do?

During that entire gen I was at EA Tiburon. Was a live producer (planning/running GAS, planning MTX and then working with first party set up store)

 

[BluRayHiDef]

During that entire gen I was at EA Tiburon. Was a live producer (planning/running GAS, planning MTX and then working with first party set up store)

Very neat. Are you still in the industry? What is the general sentiment that people in the industry have in regard to Xbox and PlayStation?

 

[Psykodad]

I can't see Sony outselling MS by 2:1 or more this time, so 60/40 it is.


I don't quite get this. There's no way MS is going to let Series S hold back the Series X.

Because I'm going to assume PS5 is gonna be middleground with power and pricing and it's going to be the smartest investment out of all the three.

 

[Arkam]

Very neat. Are you still in the industry? What is the general sentiment that people in the industry have in regard to Xbox and PlayStation?

Yep still very much in the industry. Honestly I have been super impressed with the professionalism this gen with none of my friends spilling any of the beans. That said the general sentiment is very upbeat and not a negative things has been said by anyone I know.... well other than how hard it was for a friend's studio to get PS5 dev kits back in January. I think most studios where really starting to hit their stride this gen and are most happy about how familiar both box's are to work with.

 

[BluRayHiDef]

Yep still very much in the industry. Honestly I have been super impressed with the professionalism this gen with none of my friends spilling any of the beans. That said the general sentiment is very upbeat and not a negative things has been said by anyone I know.... well other than how hard it was for a friend's studio to get PS5 dev kits back in January. I think most studios where really starting to hit their stride this gen and are most happy about how familiar both box's are to work with.

So, you don't have a clue about whether the PS5 or the XSX is the more favored of the two among industry insiders? No word on real world performance differences?

 

[Arkam]

So, you don't have a clue about whether the PS5 or the XSX is the more favored of the two among industry insiders? No word on real world performance differences?

Negative. Friends are being tight lipped. (plus I know what not to ask) I just ask in general terms "how is next gen madden going" or such. And again everyone is very excited for next gen. So we will see what is in store. My team is only partially disclosed on one of the boxes... and I am not one of them lol