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[Bel Marduk]

Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders has dramatically cut into the nationwide lead of primary rival Hillary Clinton, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.

The poll released Friday finds Clinton leading the race with 44 percent support, compared to 42 percent support for Sanders, within the survey's margin of error.
The last iteration of the poll in December had Clinton leading Sanders nationwide 61–30.

“Democrats nationwide are feeling the Bern as Sen. Bernie Sanders closes a 31-point gap to tie Secretary Hillary Clinton,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

The poll also finds that Sanders matches up better with top Republican primary candidates than Clinton.

In head-to-head matchups, the Vermont senator leads GOP front-runner Donald Trump by 10 points, edges Ted Cruz by 4 points and ties Marco Rubio.

While Clinton still tops Trump by 5 points, she ties Cruz and trails Rubio by 7 points.

The poll also finds that Clinton has a net favorability rating of negative 17, only besting Trump in that category, who has a negative-25 favorability rating.

Sanders has a 9-point favorability rating nationwide, only trailing Rubio, at 14 points.

The poll surveyed 484 Democrats and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...362-sanders-tied-with-clinton-nationwide-poll

 

[ICKE]

Quinnipiac University poll

Meh.

Other polls still have Hillary with a substantial lead and it also seems like the difference in NH has somewhat narrowed after Iowa. Seems like this one is a bit of an outlier.

 

[NoblesseOblige]

What's the demographics of Quinniwhatever University?

Edit: Oh, the poll was conducted through phonecalls of registered voters nationwide. I thought it was limited to the university.

 

[Black Republican]

if other polls follow suit, then whoa

unless its an outlier

 

[najehe]

It is an outlier poll. That is really all that needs to be said.

 

[Bel Marduk]

What's the demographics of Quinniwhatever University?

Its a national poll of Democrats not students at Quinnipiac university

 

[Veritigo_X]

Gonna have to wait for more polls to come out to see if it's a trend. Morning Consult had a poll from the same time that is more in line with other national polls: Clinton 51%, Sanders 35%. Same with PPP: Clinton 53%, Sanders 32%.

 

[Flo_Evans]

People as usual will ignore data and go with their gut.

 

[NoblesseOblige]

People as usual will ignore data and go with their gut.

I go with my sexual organs, but they're not responding positively to any candidate.

 

[Mimosa97]

Clinton ... trails ... Rubio ... by ... 7 ... points ...

America you're screwed.

 

[Effect]

People as usual will ignore data and go with their gut.

If data is wrong and an outlier then it should be ignored.

 

[superdeluxe]

Race will be fun when Sanders takes NH...but could come crashing down in South Carolina and Nevada.

 

[B-Dubs]

Let's see what other polls say first.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

Here, study your hearts out: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

 

[CrocMother]

These polls don't mean anything. They only serve to drum up talking points for the media which later serve no purpose because they aren't based off anything.

 

[Vault Dweller 111]

484 people. In direct contrast to other polls.

I wish it were true, but it probably isn't.

 

[phanphare]

as a Sanders supporter I find these results hard to believe

 

[Flo_Evans]

If data is wrong and an outlier then it should be ignored.

Even if this poll is inaccurate there is a clear trend.

 

[A Human Becoming]

It is an outlier poll. That is really all that needs to be said.

Sometimes an outlier can be more accurate due to herding. Not that I think this is the case but it's still good to consider that.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

Looking at the crosstabs, and I see Clinton vs. Sanders broken down by gender, but not ethnicity. I wonder if I'm not seeing those numbers because really, we'd need to have an idea of how they sampled for ethnicity to have an idea of how much to trust this poll, which is an outlier as others have said.

 

[Anoregon]

Clinton ... trails ... Rubio ... by ... 7 ... points ...

America you're screwed.

And ties Cruz. what the fuck.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

Clinton ... trails ... Rubio ... by ... 7 ... points ...

America you're screwed.

Me thinks that Quinnipiac's sampling methods are screwed.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

I knew this because 4 or 5 articles about this one outlier poll are on the front page of r/politics already

 

[Loudninja]

Even if this poll is inaccurate there is a clear trend.

Hmm?

 

[gcubed]

I knew this because 4 or 5 articles about this one outlier poll are on the front page of r/politics already

Shocking

 

[teruterubozu]

Interesting, but now that the primaries are underway it's time to ignore the polls. Iowa showed that they don't matter as much.

 

[ChaosXVI]

Eh, I'm finding polls in general to be less and less reliable when it comes to this election cycle. Every single poll that I saw had Trump absolutely crushing Ted Cruz in Iowa, and it ended up going the other way by a considerable margin.

I'd love it if this were true, since I do want whoever the Democrat is to really earn it (preferably Sanders, but I'm cool with Hildawg too), but I'm just going to let the chips fall where they may at this point.

 

[BowieZ]

The sampling methodology seems to be far more representative of the American voting populace than the other robopolls talked about here.

For example, other polls have skewed age and gender demographics and are landline sample only.

This poll has roughly equal numbers of men and women and I believe a fairly representative number of African American and Spanish-speaking voters, with 40% cellphone only voters.

As a pollster myself, I would put money on this poll, being most recent and most representative, being most accurate.

Edit: I'd also like to point out their two most recent Iowa polls. Both had Sanders at 49% but Clinton was at 45% then 46%, so obviously within the margin of error, although very slightly underrepresentative of Clinton's support, but still this should show that, more or less, a close battle is now a reality, plus or minus a handful of percentage points.

 

[Arkeband]

Clinton ... trails ... Rubio ... by ... 7 ... points ...

America you're screwed.

Don't worry, she'll totally be able to get things done.

Spoiler

/s

 

[darkwing]

Clinton ... trails ... Rubio ... by ... 7 ... points ...

America you're screwed.

anyone but Cruz

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Hmm?

Clear trend.

Every eight months, Bernie increases his share by 20 pts. So by this time next year, Bernie will be very close to majority support from Democrats!

 

[phanphare]

Hmm?

the percentage numbers might not be particularly accurate but the trend of sanders rising is still there

 

[Slayven]

Clear trend.

Every eight months, Bernie increases his share by 20 pts. So by this time next year, Bernie will be very close to majority support from Democrats!

Wait a minute...are you joking THunder Monkey?

 

[Flo_Evans]

Hmm?

Sanders is catching Clinton nationally and he does better against every republican in the general.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Wait a minute...are you joking THunder Monkey?

I'm always as serious as ball cancer.

 

[BSsBrolly]

And ties Cruz. what the fuck.

I think that is the most disturbing this about this poll. Ted Cruz? My god, the guy reeks of slime and looks like a melted Mr. Potato Head..

 

[Chariot]

Well... it's one poll. It remains to be seen if other polls will show similiar movement. If so, I am going to cheer. For now I remain positively hopeful for new polls.

I go with my sexual organs, but they're not responding positively to any candidate.

Where were you, when O'malley needed you the most?

 

[Familienoberhauptvogel]

I never understood why you'd run multiple candidates from the same party to take each other down only for one of them to win then expecting the votes from the people who rooted for the other candidate.

As an outsider am I just missing something?

 

[sphagnum]

I wish we could get some national, non-party-specific polls where they ask people what their favorability of Bernie is vs. various Republicans, then tell them Bernie calls himself a socialist and ask them the question again.

That's how we'll know how well he stacks up against a GOP candidate or not.

I never understood why you'd run multiple candidates from the same party to take each other down only for one of them to win then expecting the votes from the people who rooted for the other candidate.

As an outsider am I just missing something?

America doesn't have a parliamentary system where you vote for the party and then the party picks its leader or something like that. The presidency is an office open to anyone who wants to run for it, so various people within a party who often represent different interests within the party (ex: Cruz represents evangelicals, Trump represents white racist nationalists, Rubio represents the intelligentsia sort of, etc.) end up vying for their party's nomination. You then have to determine who you think will best represent the party and your views and can win the general election against the opposing party.

It's not about party unity, it's about treating politics as a market or a sporting event.

 

[Hazmat]

I never understood why you'd run multiple candidates from the same party to take each other down only for one of them to win then expecting the votes from the people who rooted for the other candidate.

As an outsider am I just missing something?

Yes, you are. In a primary the members of a party vote on who to put the party's weight behind. The amount of people who don't vote for the party's nominee because they liked someone else in the primary is insignificant.

 

[BowieZ]

Well... it's one poll. It remains to be seen if other polls will show similiar movement. If so, I am going to cheer. For now I remain positively hopeful for new polls.

Don't hold your breath, the other robopolls will take much more time to catch up to the live interviewed polls, as Sanders support among older women much more slowly gains traction.

 

[HylianTom]

Me thinks that Quinnipiac's sampling methods are screwed.

You're not alone. So far, I've seen Chuck Todd, Harry Enten, Nate Cohn, and a few other numbers guys questioning their sampling and methodology.

 

[injurai]

Sanders is catching Clinton nationally and he does better against every republican in the general.

He's beating Trump at least. It depends on who the GOP ponyboy ends up being once they whittle down the stock. Which will probably be Rubio.

 

[Angelus Errare]

Quinnipiac huh?

 

[BowieZ]

I wish we could get some national, non-party-specific polls where they ask people what their favorability of Bernie is vs. various Republicans, then tell them Bernie calls himself a socialist and ask them the question again.

That's how we'll know how well he stacks up against a GOP candidate or not.

He doesn't call himself that, but fair point.

Meanwhile, what about Hillary being called a progressive liberal who believes in gay marriage, then ask them the versus Republican question again?

How about that?

 

[SliceSabre]

I can't believe the country is about to fall for another 'Hope and Change' candidate.

 

[maabus1999]

I can't believe the country is about to fall for another 'Hope and Change' candidate.

I would argue Trump Cruz and Rubio are all hope and change candidates. The whole American electorate is so pissed off with Congress and the two parties that they are overlooking realistic expectations

And that is the main reason Michael Bloomberg is thinking of running due to all these hope and change candidates

 

[teruterubozu]

Why are people scoffing at Quinnipiac? It's one of the better rated pollsters on 538's rankings.

 

[Familienoberhauptvogel]

I wish we could get some national, non-party-specific polls where they ask people what their favorability of Bernie is vs. various Republicans, then tell them Bernie calls himself a socialist and ask them the question again.

That's how we'll know how well he stacks up against a GOP candidate or not.



America doesn't have a parliamentary system where you vote for the party and then the party picks its leader or something like that. The presidency is an office open to anyone who wants to run for it, so various people within a party who often represent different interests within the party (ex: Cruz represents evangelicals, Trump represents white racist nationalists, Rubio represents the intelligentsia sort of, etc.) end up vying for their party's nomination. You then have to determine who you think will best represent the party and your views and can win the general election against the opposing party.

It's not about party unity, it's about treating politics as a market or a sporting event.

Yes, you are. In a primary the members of a party vote on who to put the party's weight behind. The amount of people who don't vote for the party's nominee because they liked someone else in the primary is insignificant.

Yeah but why not do that behind closed doors and have a unified public appearance. There's always infighting within parties but from my perspective they always try to sweep it under the rug, having it so out in the open is weird.

 

[noshten]

One set of polls uses ex-primary voters(people who voted in 08)
Another set of polls uses likely voters(people who said they would likely vote in this democratic primary)

Bernie does well with likely voters since that also covers his biggest demographic advantage 18-25 y/o where he leads something like 80/20. While a poll with ex-primary voters will favor Clinton because it simply omits such people.