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[sphagnum]

Whatever suits your narrative.

Politics are all about narratives. Hillary won Iowa, yes, but the media has not been playing it that way because they want a horse race, so they've been playing it up as a tie. This will undoubtedly have some sort of effect on Bernie's favorables, even if it's not as drastic as this poll may indicate.

It's not ridiculous to say that a candidate coming from a 50 point deficit to 0.2% behind could be viewed as a tie by a large amount of people.

 

[Arkeband]

Whatever suits your narrative.

Is HillaryGAF going to survive Bernie fans taking a few victory laps during and immediately following the NH primary? I sense turmoil.

 

[Draconian]

Her favorability rating is only better than Trump's?

My word

 

[SamVimes]

Except it wasn't 1. It was 5, 4, and 3 in their last three polls.

People saying I'm gonna wait for more polls to see if this is an outlier don't need to wait. We have numerous polls around this period that don't even show a TREND towards Sanders let alone an erasing of a 20 point lead.

They had Bernie winning Iowa by 3 in their last poll. And, their biggest issue seems to be under sampling people of color, which isn't quite a problem in Iowa. Still, they missed the mark on Iowa, and have been an outlier from work this entire cycle.

This reminds me of Republicans believing in their hearts that Rasmussen was right until the end in 2012.

I thought it was just 1, my mistake.

 

[Jenov]

Politics are all about narratives. Hillary won Iowa, yes, but the media has not been playing it that way because they want a horse race, so they've been playing it up as a tie. This will undoubtedly have some sort of effect on Bernie's favorables, even if it's not as drastic as this poll may indicate.

It's not ridiculous to say that a candidate coming from a 50 point deficit to 0.2% behind could be viewed as a tie by a large amount of people.

Eh, even the media hasn't been saying it's a tie since the democratic party officially announced Clinton as the winner. The media has followed saying it was a very close race but ultimately a razor thin margin win for Clinton. AP, CNN, and even the MSNBC moderators in the debate yesterday referenced Iowa as a "win" for Clinton.


http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/02/politics/new-hampshire-primary-2016/ - Clinton wins Iowa Caucuses

http://www.npr.org/2016/02/02/46519...aucus-clinton-sanders-still-too-close-to-call - Clinton Edges Sanders in Iowa

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_2016_ELECTION_RDP?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT - CLINTON WINS IOWA, CAMPAIGNS TURN TO NEW HAMPSHIRE

etc etc

 

[riotous]

By like, less than one percent though. He got 20 delegates and hillary got 22 right? For all practical purposes its essentially a tie

If Bernie had won by 2 delegates; do you think Bernie fans would be OK with declraing it a tie? I have a feeling they wouldn't.

I'm a Bernie fan myself; but he didn't tie Hillary. Aside from losing by 2 delegates any loss justifies Superdelegates going Clinton's way.

 

[And_Gignac]

Except it wasn't 1. It was 5, 4, and 3 in their last three polls.

People saying I'm gonna wait for more polls to see if this is an outlier don't need to wait. We have numerous polls around this period that don't even show a TREND towards Sanders let alone an erasing of a 20 point lead.

We only have three: PP (28 to 21 lead by Clinton); Morning Consult (+4 for Sanders I think?) and the Ipsos/Reuters tracking that polled from 1/30 to 2/3 (Sanders +4). PP had Clinton at +8 in Iowa (laughable) and MC didnt poll there. I would wait for more polling.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

you only have three. PP (28 to 21 lead by Clinton) and Morning Consult (+4 for Sanders I think?) and the Ipsos/Reuters tracking that polled from 1/30 to 2/3 (Sanders +4). PP had Clinton at +8 in Iowa (laughable) and MC didnt poll there. I would wait for more polling.

3 vs 1 though.

 

[phanphare]

Her favorability rating is only better than Trump's?

My word

this is why I take issue with her being the "safe" choice

her favorable rating is awful and trending in the wrong direction

out of the likely republican candidates she's really only a safe choice against trump and even he worries me a bit in that regard

 

[Valhelm]

Even though national polls aren't too important, this is incredible. In September, I would not have thought that this would be possible.

Because white voters are already tied, could this mean that white voters now profoundly favor Sanders, or does it mean that more voters of color now support Sanders instead of Clinton?

 

[ThisGuy]

Can Bernie run independent if he loses to hilldawg?

Is this something we should worry about? Some of Bernie's supporters won't vote Hillary.

 

[ChronotriggerJM]

Awesome news regardless. The more light painted on Sanders, the further left I feel the democrats get pulled. I hope he crushes NH and get's a bigger swing of momentum. He'll need it for SC or NV.

Can Bernie run independent if he loses to hilldawg?

Is this something we should worry about? Some of Bernie's supporters won't vote Hillary.

I think he's openly stated that wouldn't happen. And I highly doubt there's many Bernie supporters that wouldn't vote Hillary if she's nominated. Sure some vocal people on the internet, but the fact that they're interested at all probably bodes well for her chances. I'll vote Dem any day to prevent a Psycho from getting the White house, that narrative alone will bring turnout.

 

[SamVimes]

Can Bernie run independent if he loses to hilldawg?

Is this something we should worry about? Some of Bernie's supporters won't vote Hillary.

He can but he absolutely won't.

 

[Valhelm]

Can Bernie run independent if he loses to hilldawg?

Is this something we should worry about? Some of Bernie's supporters won't vote Hillary.

Many Bernie supporters won't vote for Hillary, but Bernie is nowhere near as stupid as to go third party.

Trump, on the other hand...

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Can Bernie run independent if he loses to hilldawg?

Is this something we should worry about? Some of Bernie's supporters won't vote Hillary.

Unless it gets really dirty, I doubt it.

They'll argue, things might even get heated between them, but when the nomination is assuredly clinched, Bernie will endorse her, just as Hillary would endorse him.

Bernie even made the point on stage last night. "We're both 100% better than any Rep."

 

[ThisGuy]

He can but he absolutely won't.

That's good, I guess I shouldn't be surprised, he would care about the cause above winning.

Bernie even made the point on stage last night. "We're both 100% better than any Rep."

Ahh I missed the last bit of the debates. Completely agree. Rubios rise in Iowa though. I don't like it.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Wait a minute - do you want to tell me Rubio has a higher favorability rating than both Sanders and Clinton among Democrats, or we're other people asked This?!

seems like those were separate questions posed, so quinnipiac's methodology is only slightly bad instead of comically bad

 

[Chariot]

Can Bernie run independent if he loses to hilldawg?

Is this something we should worry about? Some of Bernie's supporters won't vote Hillary.

Unless Hillary starts to burn puppies in a public puppy purge, no. Bernie isn't fighting dirty.

 

[gutter_trash]

might as well just hand it over to the Republicans at this point, seesh

 

[Valhelm]

seems like those were separate questions posed, so quinnipiac's methodology is only slightly bad instead of comically bad

Quinnipiac is one of the most reliable pollsters, although this sample size is pretty small.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Quinnipiac is one of the most reliable pollsters, although this sample size is pretty small.

they're reasonably reliable 19 times out of 20. this is likely that 20th (given that literally everyone else in the field in the past week has been showing leads between 12 and 20)

e: also, yeah - they had a ton of wild swings in 2012 and i'm pretty sure they were comically off in 2014 to an extent that almost no one else was

 

[User 463088]

Quinnipiac is one of the most reliable pollsters, although this sample size is pretty small.

No they are not. They're a B+ according to 538. They're not horrible, but they're are quite a few better ones out there.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Quinnipiac is one of the most reliable pollsters, although this sample size is pretty small.

I don't know about that. As someone who has known about them for a long time, they keep showing these massive swings in numbers that really piss me off. Like one month to the next month swings of 5-10 points. I could dig up some examples if you're interested. It has been happening since 2012 as far as I can tell. Obama v Romney leading up to the election was very frustrating.

 

[excelsiorlef]

He didn't, but I'd be willing to bet most people polled believed that he did. And that's what matters here - perception. A subset of Sanders supporters believe he lost by a coin toss.

Sanders supporters by nature already support Sanders so....

 

[ChronotriggerJM]

might as well just hand it over to the Republicans at this point, seesh

I find post's like these irritating. It's almost like, if Sanders were to get the nomination, the democratic party would just back out of the race all together and let Sanders just try to win it all by himself. It's silly. If Sanders got the Nom, there would be enormous support in terms of Smear campaigns against republicans, and support messages for a Democratic President. Yeah Sanders will be called a Socialist, which seems to be losing it's effectiveness by the hour, and Trump will be labeled as Hitler. Everyone has baggage, and all of it will be exploited, Republican or Democrat.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I find post's like these irritating. It's almost like, if Sanders were to get the nomination, the democratic party would just back out of the race all together and let Sanders just try to win it all by himself. It's silly. If Sanders got the Nom, there would be enormous support in terms of Smear campaigns against republicans, and support messages for a Democratic President. Yeah Sanders will be called a Socialist, which seems to be losing it's effectiveness by the hour, and Trump will be labeled as Hitler. Everyone has baggage, and all of it will be exploited, Republican or Democrat.

Trump won't be the nominee if he doesn't win in NH. Rubio has strong momentum right now and he would probably destroy Sanders and Clinton if he plays his cards right.

 

[excelsiorlef]

Can Bernie run independent if he loses to hilldawg?

Is this something we should worry about? Some of Bernie's supporters won't vote Hillary.

He can but that'll give the GOP the Whitehouse

 

[ChronotriggerJM]

Trump won't be the nominee if he doesn't win in NH. Rubio has strong momentum right now and he would probably destroy Sanders and Clinton if he plays his cards right.

There will be plenty Rubio smearing too. Dude's got a wealth of baggage on his own merits alone, let alone the party he's representing.

 

[magnifico]

this is why I take issue with her being the "safe" choice

her favorable rating is awful and trending in the wrong direction

out of the likely republican candidates she's really only a safe choice against trump and even he worries me a bit in that regard

Indeed, gotta remember that John Kerry was the "safe" choice against Bush too... That was a disaster because lack of enthusiasm.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

There will be plenty Rubio smearing too. Dude's got a wealth of baggage on his own merits alone, let alone the party he's representing.

Probably nothing worse than a tax and spend socialist that can't even discuss foreign policy or e-mail Benghazi something something.

Indeed, gotta remember that John Kerry was the "safe" choice against Bush too... That was a disaster.

By your logic I could claim that this rock keeps tigers away.

 

[Oriel]

Probably an outlier poll but it does potentially point to a trend of Sanders closing the gap with Clinton. If he takes NH by more than 60% (his polling there) then it could point to a surge nationwide.

 

[Valhelm]

I don't know about that. As someone who has known about them for a long time, they keep showing these massive swings in numbers that really piss me off. Like one month to the next month swings of 5-10 points. I could dig up some examples if you're interested. It has been happening since 2012 as far as I can tell. Obama v Romney leading up to the election was very frustrating.

Fair enough.

 

[Brinbe]

I don't think it's too surprising. But I'd like to see other polls that show the same thing before making any definitive conclusions.

I still think Hillary is the likely nominee, but I'm happy that someone like Sanders is bringing out an acceptable and positive voice for these progressive ideals. It's progress, especially from where the Dems were back in 2000 or 2004.

 

[metalslimer]

Probably an outlier poll but it does potentially point to a trend of Sanders closing the gap with Clinton. If he takes NH by more than 60% (his polling there) then it could point to a surge nationwide.

What do NH polls have to do with nationwide trends?

 

[ChronotriggerJM]

Probably nothing worse than a tax and spend socialist that can't even discuss foreign policy or e-mail Benghazi something something.

The point is that there is no "safe" candidate, each candidates feet will be held to the fire during the General Election. People act as if the Republican political machinery will be in overdrive while the Democrats will just be shitting the bed. It's defeatist mentality.

 

[phanphare]

What do NH polls have to do with nationwide trends?

if Bernie wins NH by a large margin it could affect his momentum nationwide

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

if Bernie wins NH by a large margin it could affect his momentum nationwide

Isn't an NH win baked into the numbers at this point? We all know it's his neighboring state and one of his 3 strongest. Iowa would have been more of a shocker necessary to get people thinking.

 

[AlphaDump]

I don't know about that. As someone who has known about them for a long time, they keep showing these massive swings in numbers that really piss me off. Like one month to the next month swings of 5-10 points. I could dig up some examples if you're interested. It has been happening since 2012 as far as I can tell. Obama v Romney leading up to the election was very frustrating.

remember that unskewedpolls website? Seemed to appear and vanish pre and post election.


horse race media. if it bleeds it leads, or something.

 

[Oriel]

What do NH polls have to do with nationwide trends?

If Sanders takes NH by more than the polls suggest then it could point towards increasing national support for him.

 

[Prodigal Son]

Isn't an NH win baked into the numbers at this point? We all know it's his neighboring state and one of his 3 strongest. Iowa would have been more of a shocker necessary to get people thinking.

And people are thinking. Media is reporting iowa as a tie.

 

[phanphare]

Isn't an NH win baked into the numbers at this point? We all know it's his neighboring state and one of his 3 strongest. Iowa would have been more of a shocker necessary to get people thinking.

I guess we'll find out soon enough

 

[Valhelm]

Isn't an NH win baked into the numbers at this point? We all know it's his neighboring state and one of his 3 strongest. Iowa would have been more of a shocker necessary to get people thinking.

Iowa helped pretty substantially.

 

[G.ZZZ]

Rubio is legitimately scaring me . Trump please fucking win jeuss christ u can't burn out now. Hillary would still fuck up the middle east but Rubio would fucking go to full scale war. Fucking american foreign policy.

 

[metalslimer]

if Bernie wins NH by a large margin it could affect his momentum nationwide

Obama losing NH didn't affect his momentum.

Hell that speech he gave after seemed to increase it.

If Bernie can do better than his terrible polling suggests in a minority heavy place like SC that would be a huge boost.

 

[Eidan]

Quinnipiac is a terrible pollster.

It's been this way for a while now. Why?

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

And people are thinking. Media is reporting iowa as a tie.

Not really. They claimed Clinton as the winner.

 

[Jenov]

And people are thinking. Media is reporting iowa as a tie.

They really aren't... all major media news initially reported it as a virtual tie before the results were finalized, and since then have called it for Clinton. The NH debate referenced it as a win for Clinton too.

 

[NeoXChaos]

And people are thinking. Media is reporting iowa as a tie.

and Clinton was declared the winner. Again nice try though.

 

[magnifico]

Isn't an NH win baked into the numbers at this point? We all know it's his neighboring state and one of his 3 strongest. Iowa would have been more of a shocker necessary to get people thinking.

Eh NH has more higher pop areas near and gets most of its news from Massachusetts, much more so than Vermont. Even Howard Dead lost NH to the candidate from Mass.

 

[brochiller]

Who are these people that find a candidate "unfavorable" yest still say they would vote for them?