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[Bam Bam Baklava]

The way I see it, ignoring this one piece of data is dumb. It is data and it is good for Sanders. It's just not as important as the rest of the data points combined. The data at large indicates that Clinton still is well in the lead. So you can take solace in this because Bernie as a piece of data in his corner, but you have to keep weighing that against the trend overall, which isn't I his favor.

I think those of us that follow this stuff closely just get frustrated by outliers getting attention when we see it as praising or highlighting, in a positive way, something that's wrong. Politics is the most illogical subject I've ever studied.

It's kind of like being a medical researcher and seeing "CURE FOR CANCER" headlines and shaking your head at it all.

 

[Neuromancer]

You know who else was favored by an outlier poll once? Jesus.

 

[ChronotriggerJM]

Oops



Why was my post patronizing in your view?

You're acting like these people are mindlessly rooting for a person, and not at least somewhat interested in politics. Instead of just lumping them into a category of "lost cause", we should try to get them more motivated in Hillary's more progressive stances, when it comes down to the general election, I'm sure the "salty" Bernie supporters can easily be convinced to vote for Hillary.

 

[phanphare]

I hope this guy doesn't win the nom. He will get destroyed in the general by republicans through lies and fear.

Bernie is in a better position to combat the lies and fear than Hillary is to be quite honest. she has an authenticity problem.

 

[Prodigal Son]

You're acting like these people are mindlessly rooting for a person, and not at least somewhat interested in politics. Instead of just lumping them into a category of "lost cause", we should try to get them more motivated in Hillary's more progressive stances, when it comes down to the general election, I'm sure the "salty" Bernie supporters can easily be convinced to vote for Hillary.

Have you been on reddit or half of the internet that allows people to express opinion with few consequences? It is mindless for a lot of people. A sizable number of voters go for people they like, and aren't the least beet concerned with actual substance. They'll vote for Bernie because they saw him talking to Ellen or Fallon, or because he's trending on twitter or because their one political friend loves him and told them to. They won't do it because of anything important or substantive. That's the reality of the youth vote.

I don't think Clinton is nearly progressive enough for me to tout her as one. She's super progressive in a country like the USA where backwards policies and ridiculously archaic political structures are commonplace, but she's a centrist from a global perspective (my perspective). In the very unfortunate, albeit likely scenario where she wins, I'll vote for her because it'll help keep crazy people from taking office. I won't vote for her because I like or have even the most remote ounce of respect for her as a person or as a candidate.

 

[Makai]

Quinnipiac is a well-known poll. Amused that people think they're some no-name that always delivers terrible results.

500 is not a joke sample size, either.

 

[M0nochromatic]

That's nice to hear. Anecdotally, a lot of my acquaintences in school and work have become interested in Sanders as well as the season's starting picking up.

 

[ChronotriggerJM]

Have you been on reddit or half of the internet that allows people to express opinion with few consequences? It is mindless for a lot of people. A sizable number of voters go for people they like, and aren't the least beet concerned with actual substance. They'll vote for Bernie because they saw him talking to Ellen or Fallon, or because he's trending on twitter or because their one political friend loves him and told them to. They won't do it because of anything important or substantive. That's the reality of the youth vote.

I don't think Clinton is nearly progressive enough for me to tout her as one. She's super progressive in a country like the USA where backwards policies and ridiculously archaic political structures are commonplace, but she's a centrist from a global perspective (my perspective). In the very unfortunate, albeit likely scenario where she wins, I'll vote for her because it'll help keep crazy people from taking office. I won't vote for her because I like or have even the most remote ounce of respect for her as a person or as a candidate.

I agree with this, but people don't resonate with Sanders specifically because they've seen him on TV, I'd argue he probably has less appearances as a whole compared to plenty of other more outspoken Republicans. They resonate with him because he dreams big (not even outlandishly in my opinion, but that's a whole different discussion), and they like his policies. Yes there are some very outspoken Bernie supporters that are sticking to their guns, and will vote Green party I'm sure, but I try to convince people almost daily that Hillary is a solid at least semi-progressive candidate and while she's not Bernie, that's not a bad thing per se.

I'm sorry I jumped the gun a bit, I just hate that term "salty".

 

[Prodigal Son]

Quinnipiac is a well-known poll. Amused that people think they're some no-name that always delivers terrible results.

500 is not a joke sample size, either.

People are just skeptical as they should be. They want other polls to confirm this before they accept their disappointment or excitement.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Quinnipiac is a well-known poll. Amused that people think they're some no-name that always delivers terrible results.

500 is not a joke sample size, either.

Quinn has shown time and time again to have wild monthly swings. In 2012 and now 2016. How the fuck do you go from Romney +4 to Obama +5 in a single month? The same shit is happening with their swing state polling this time around.

 

[Prodigal Son]

I agree with this, but people don't resonate with Sanders specifically because they've seen him on TV, I'd argue he probably has less appearances as a whole compared to plenty of other more outspoken Republicans. They resonate with him because he dreams big (not even outlandishly in my opinion, but that's a whole different discussion), and they like his policies. Yes there are some very outspoken Bernie supporters that are sticking to their guns, and will vote Green party I'm sure, but I try to convince people almost daily that Hillary is a solid at least semi-progressive candidate and while she's not Bernie, that's not a bad thing per se.

I'm sorry I jumped the gun a bit, I just hate that term "salty".

Perhaps you're right. I might not be giving them enough credit. I generally have something of a pessimist's view about these sort of things. I hope we never have to find out what Sanders fans will do if Clinton gets the nomination. At the very least, Clinton fans will support Sanders in general should it come to that.

Spoiler

And yeah, I guess Salty is a dumb word.

 

[phanphare]

Quinnipiac is a well-known poll. Amused that people think they're some no-name that always delivers terrible results.

500 is not a joke sample size, either.

I'm remaining skeptical until proven otherwise. granted I'm not the most knowledgeable about this stuff I just doubt that the Iowa tie was enough to even the race nationally

 

[Pamplemousse]

National polls don't matter right now; individual state polls do. Bernie did well in Iowa and looks good in New Hampshire, but South Carolina? Nope. Doing well in two very white states isn't enough to get the nom.

 

[Box of Kittens]

The way I see it, ignoring this one piece of data is dumb. It is data and it is good for Sanders. It's just not as important as the rest of the data points combined. The data at large indicates that Clinton still is well in the lead. So you can take solace in this because Bernie as a piece of data in his corner, but you have to keep weighing that against the trend overall, which isn't I his favor.

Well said. The best way to look at polls is to aggregate them. You should never overreact to a single poll. By the same token, don't outright throw it out just because you deem it an outlier. It's another piece of data to throw on the pile. It's a really bad idea to pick and choose which polls you listen to. Having some means of weighting polls that you develop in advance a la Nate Silver can be a perfectly sound thing to do. Deciding which polls matter and which don't using ad hoc criteria is a terrible idea. The cognitive biases that push you to accept the polls that tell you what you want to hear are just too powerful. It's the trap a lot of Republicans fell into in 2012 and no one is immune to it regardless of the party and/or candidate that you support.

 

[Flo_Evans]

Perhaps you're right. I might not be giving them enough credit. I generally have something of a pessimist's view about these sort of things. I hope we never have to find out what Sanders fans will do if Clinton gets the nomination. At the very least, Clinton fans will support Sanders in general should it come to that.

Spoiler

And yeah, I guess Salty is a dumb word.

I think you are giving yourself too much credit lol.

 

[BoboBrazil]

And lack of attainable domestic policy and complete lack of understanding of foreign policy. The GOP won't have to stretch the lies much to instill doubt in voters. (Won't stop them from doing it though.)

Yep. Want a Republican to take the white house? Vote Bernie. Watching him multiple times shows how little substance there is to him. He has his stump speech and unattainable goals that he is promising and that's it. He is in fantasy land.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Well said. The best way to look at polls is to aggregate them. You should never overreact to a single poll. By the same token, don't outright throw it out just because you deem it an outlier. It's another piece of data to throw on the pile. It's a really bad idea to pick and choose which polls you listen to. Having some means of weighting polls that you develop in advance a la Nate Silver can be a perfectly sound thing to do. Deciding which polls matter and which don't using ad hoc criteria is a terrible idea. The cognitive biases that push you to accept the polls that tell you what you want to hear are just too powerful. It's the trap a lot of Republicans fell into in 2012 and no one is immune to it regardless of the party and/or candidate that you support.

Silver assigns weights to his polls. Not all of them are created equal. RCP picks and chooses which polls get into their aggregate.

 

[Tesseract]

Yep. Want a Republican to take the white house? Vote Bernie. Watching him multiple times shows how little substance there is to him. He has his stump speech and unattainable goals that he is promising and that's it. He is in fantasy land.

americans disagree, mate

 

[Prodigal Son]

I think you are giving yourself too much credit lol.

Just enough, I think.

Yep. Want a Republican to take the white house? Vote Bernie. Watching him multiple times shows how little substance there is to him. He has his stump speech and unattainable goals that he is promising and that's it. He is in fantasy land.

What is your view on the polls that claim Sanders outperforms all GOP members in the general and does a better job of it than Clinton? Do you really think more Americans would vote Trump than Sanders?

 

[Your Entertainer]

Yep. Want a Republican to take the white house? Vote Bernie. Watching him multiple times shows how little substance there is to him. He has his stump speech and unattainable goals that he is promising and that's it. He is in fantasy land.

Completely disagree.

 

[BoboBrazil]

Completely disagree.

What am I missing then? I've seen the last few debates with him and the town hall and he just keeps going back to his stump speech and wall street for most answers.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

I think those of us that follow this stuff closely just get frustrated by outliers getting attention when we see it as praising or highlighting, in a positive way, something that's wrong. Politics is the most illogical subject I've ever studied.

It's kind of like being a medical researcher and seeing "CURE FOR CANCER" headlines and shaking your head at it all.

I get that 100%. Having to re-explain the same stuff over and over is frustrating. But I think that's all you can really do. Just try to politely explain things, under the assumption that the person is legitimately uninformed, and keep doing that forever. Anything else is just gonna make enemies.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

americans disagree, mate

Americans want a President that can discuss more than one subject. It might not show in the primaries but it does in the general. His lack of interest/knowledge when it comes to talking about foreign policy legitimately scares me.

 

[NullPointer]

You know who else was favored by an outlier poll once? Jesus.

He was nailed to one too.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Silver assigns weights to his polls. Not all of them are created equal. RCP picks and chooses which polls get into their aggregate.

Right. One approach is sound and the other veers off towards "unskewing" territory.

 

[Your Entertainer]

What am I missing then? I've seen the last few debates with him and the town hall and he just keeps going back to his stump speech and wall street for most answers.

Pretty much everything, given how you stated he has little substance to him. He has spoken very well at all of the last debates.

 

[ChronotriggerJM]

Americans want a President that can discuss more than one subject. It might not show in the primaries but it does in the general. His lack of interest/knowledge when it comes to talking about foreign policy legitimately scares me.

I don't think Democrats are largely concerned with foreign policy currently, domestic issues are why Sanders has momentum in my opinion. I don't think he lacks content for foreign policy, I just don't think he see's it as a selling point. Should he get the nomination, he'll refine his speeches to attract the moderates, and I'm sure foreign policy will play a much larger role.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Right. One approach is sound and the other veers off towards "unskewing" territory.

Silver also bans certain polls from being included. RCP is considered credible despite that article from 16 years ago.

I don't think Democrats are largely concerned with foreign policy currently, domestic issues are why Sanders has the momentum currently. I don't think he lacks content for foreign policy, I just don't think he see's it as a selling point. Should he get the nomination, he'll refine his speeches to attract the moderates, and I'm sure foreign policy will play a much larger role.

So you just want blind faith?

 

[Prodigal Son]

Americans want a President that can discuss more than one subject. It might not show in the primaries but it does in the general. His lack of interest/knowledge when it comes to talking about foreign policy legitimately scares me.

In my view he has solid perspective on current foreign policy issues regarding ISIS and the middle east. We shouldn't be policing the world and toppling dictators. Sanders doesn't do a good job of selling this idea though.
People around the world hate America for its big-stick, policing bullshit and their view of the country has improved significantly under Obama because of this. Sanders has got to step up on his foreign policy game.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

In my view he has solid perspective on current foreign policy issues regarding ISIS and the middle east. We shouldn't be policing the world and toppling dictators. Sanders doesn't do a good job of selling this idea though.
People around the world hate America for its big-stick, policing bullshit and their view of the country has improved significantly under Obama because of this. Sanders has got to step up on his foreign policy game.

Like getting Iran and Saudi Arabia to fight ISIS together on the battlefield?

 

[NeoXChaos]

Americans want a President that can discuss more than one subject. It might not show in the primaries but it does in the general. His lack of interest/knowledge when it comes to talking about foreign policy legitimately scares me.

that's not the only thing that scares me:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=192003114&postcount=363

 

[Good Job Bob]

 

[BoboBrazil]

Just enough, I think.



What is your view on the polls that claim Sanders outperforms all GOP members in the general and does a better job of it than Clinton? Do you really think more Americans would vote Trump than Sanders?

Early head to head polls don't matter much.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Silver also bans certain polls from being included. RCP is considered credible despite that article from 16 years ago.

There can be legitimate reasons to exclude a poll. The poll may be unscientific. The poll may be from a fly by night pollster who can't provide verification of what they did. It can be good practice to exclude internal campaign polls (not because they're bad polls but because campaigns release them selectively). Excluding a poll on an ad hoc basis after you've seen the results is terrible practice, because despite what you've convinced yourself, the reason you're ignoring it is probably because it's telling you something you don't want to hear.

 

[AlphaDump]

What am I missing then? I've seen the last few debates with him and the town hall and he just keeps going back to his stump speech and wall street for most answers.

Yep, and it parallels the thread discussions here on gaf. The arguments made by Hillary and Bernie fans, they are night and day in how they are articulated and structured. I've directly challenged Bernie supports and it is always the same shit.

 

[ChronotriggerJM]

So you just want blind faith?

Not at all. Sanders has had solid answers on questions regarding foreign policy in my opinion. He's talked Foreign policy with a bit more substance in a few of his speeches and interviews, his perspectives certainly aren't alarming (like many Republican answers seem to be), just very general. He's not focusing his campaign on that aspect because it's not attractive to Democrats, which he's trying to sway for the primaries.

 

[Tesseract]

Americans want a President that can discuss more than one subject. It might not show in the primaries but it does in the general. His lack of interest/knowledge when it comes to talking about foreign policy legitimately scares me.

and that president's name is bernie sanders

 

[Clefargle]

I think that is the most disturbing this about this poll. Ted Cruz? My god, the guy reeks of slime and looks like a melted Mr. Potato Head..

Can confirm:

 

[Gutek]

Income inequality is the biggest issue and crisis the world faces today, except for maybe climate change. If we keep going at the rate we're going now, the 1% have accumulated 99% of the wealth in 2 or 3 decades. We have to stop that train now!

 

[Box of Kittens]

Clinton ... trails ... Rubio ... by ... 7 ... points ...

America you're screwed.

General election polls this far out are basically meaningless.

 

[KHarvey16]

Silver also bans certain polls from being included. RCP is considered credible despite that article from 16 years ago.

Only polls known to have or very, very seriously suspected of having faked their results in the past. There's only a three or four of them.

 

[Ecotic]

I have to assume it's an outlier for now or a non-representative sample, but I'm not afraid of a spirited or even long primary. It's good for getting the party message out.

 

[Damaniel]

I don't think Democrats are largely concerned with foreign policy currently, domestic issues are why Sanders has momentum in my opinion. I don't think he lacks content for foreign policy, I just don't think he see's it as a selling point. Should he get the nomination, he'll refine his speeches to attract the moderates, and I'm sure foreign policy will play a much larger role.

No, he plain doesn't care about foreign policy. Decades of listening to him demonstrates that - his concerns begin, and end, at the borders, and even then only in economic terms.

Foreign policy is not all about (or even largely about) war. Diplomatic relations, treaties, pretty anything else that involves interacting with foreign governments counts. Bernie wants isolationism, which is a terrible idea on a good day, and impossible in our modern connected society.

I have yet to be convinced that Bernie would magically become a foreign policy expert if he wins the nomination - all the evidence to the contrary suggests otherwise.

 

[ChronotriggerJM]

No, he plain doesn't care about foreign policy. Decades of listening to him demonstrates that - his concerns begin, and end, at the borders, and even then only in economic terms.

Foreign policy is not all about (or even largely about) war. Diplomatic relations, treaties, pretty anything else that involves interacting with foreign governments counts. Bernie wants isolationism, which is a terrible idea on a good day, and impossible in our modern connected society.

I have yet to be convinced that Bernie would magically become a foreign policy expert if he wins the nomination - all the evidence to the contrary suggests otherwise.

He also talks about working as support in foreign countries, instead of the primary police. He talks about trade deals that sent jobs overseas. He's been pretty vocal as to why he's opposed these things, and not just for isolationist reasons.

 

[SolarPowered]

Income inequality is the biggest issue and crisis the world faces today, except for maybe climate change. If we keep going at the rate we're going now, the 1% have accumulated 99% of the wealth in 2 or 3 decades. We have to stop that train now!

Climate Change is bigger than everything and even getting to 50% renewable energy domestically will take at least two decades. Domestic income inequality is by far the easiest of the two to tackle.

No, he plain doesn't care about foreign policy. Decades of listening to him demonstrates that - his concerns begin, and end, at the borders, and even then only in economic terms.

Foreign policy is not all about (or even largely about) war. Diplomatic relations, treaties, pretty anything else that involves interacting with foreign governments counts. Bernie wants isolationism, which is a terrible idea on a good day, and impossible in our modern connected society.

I have yet to be convinced that Bernie would magically become a foreign policy expert if he wins the nomination - all the evidence to the contrary suggests otherwise.

I don't think anyone could say that with a straight face. If he does win it'll definitely continue to be something he lacks, but hopefully improves on. I just hope he surrounds himself with knowledgeable advisers in that scenario.

 

[AlphaDump]

He also talks about working as support in foreign countries, instead of the primary police. He talks about trade deals that sent jobs overseas. He's been pretty vocal as to why he's opposed these things, and not just for isolationist reasons.

because saying "fuck it" is easier than governance.

 

[Rubenov]

Quinnipiac University poll

Meh.
.

Yep. And Hillary tying with Ted fuckin Cruz? Please.

 

[magnifico]

because saying "fuck it" is easier than governance.

He wants trade deals that takes the American worker into account in terms of its effects since we have no voice in what's being considered behind closed doors with multinationals during negotiations.

 

[Gutek]

Climate Change is bigger than everything and even getting to 50% renewable energy domestically will take at least two decades. Domestic income inequality is by far the easiest of the two to tackle

Why not both? Vote Sanders.

 

[Prodigal Son]

Like getting Iran and Saudi Arabia to fight ISIS together on the battlefield?

Would you prefer American Soldiers?