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[Bam Bam Baklava]

There can be legitimate reasons to exclude a poll. The poll may be unscientific. The poll may be from a fly by night pollster who can't provide verification of what they did. It can be good practice to exclude internal campaign polls (not because they're bad polls but because campaigns release them selectively). Excluding a poll on an ad hoc basis after you've seen the results is terrible practice, because despite what you've convinced yourself, the reason you're ignoring it is probably because it's telling you something you don't want to hear.

Well we have 4 other polls taken around the same time that don't really show anything that Q picked up so eventually we have to rule whether it is an outlier or not. I think their final polling is usually not bad but their polls leading up to the election have been pretty god damn terrible in terms of wild, inexplicable swings on a monthly basis.

Would you prefer American Soldiers?

What does that have to do with the proposal being impossible and/or naive?

 

[ChronotriggerJM]

because saying "fuck it" is easier than governance.

In the grand scheme of things, can we say these were beneficial deals for American labor? I mean I don't think wanting to bring American jobs back is a new concept to a presidential race.

 

[magnifico]

In the grand fromscheme of things, can we say these were beneficial deals for American labor? I mean I don't think wanting to bring American jobs back is a new concept to a presidential race.

These trade deals were written by corporations and their puppets sold us out by passing them. Alan Greenspan said "it didnt matter where the products were made" and the administrations (including Clinton) have allowed them to outsource jobs and manufacturing oversees at .15c/hr. No input or consideration from/for the American worker.
https://youtu.be/WJaW32ZTyKE

 

[Cocaloch]

Yep, and it parallels the thread discussions here on gaf. The arguments made by Hillary and Bernie fans, they are night and day in how they are articulated and structured. I've directly challenged Bernie supports and it is always the same shit.

Wow very insightful. Everyone in your tribe is smart, everyone in the other is dumb. If only those dumb idiots would do what the clearly fully rational and smart side that has never been wrong about anything wanted we'd all be good.

No this issue, like the vast majority of issues in life, has smart and dumb people on both sides. Your post just makes you look like an ass.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

General election polls this far out are basically meaningless.

Yep, Obama and Hillary in 2008 at this point were polling pretty badly against the Republican field. And even as late as May, Obama was doing worse than Hillary in head to heads against McCain.

The poll numbers don't seem to be accurate in head to heads until around September. After both parties have their nominee.

 

[Your Entertainer]

Yep, and it parallels the thread discussions here on gaf. The arguments made by Hillary and Bernie fans, they are night and day in how they are articulated and structured. I've directly challenged Bernie supports and it is always the same shit.

What a horrible post, and ironic considering the nonstop complaining about "Bernie Bros" on the internet.

 

[Four_Chamber]

Really hate to say it *barf* but I think Rasmussen is the more accurate one on this point given the other national polls. Generally, Rasmussen stinks but Quinnipiac numbers don't add up in the context of everything else.

 

[Bel Marduk]

Yep. And Hillary tying with Ted fuckin Cruz? Please.

Unfortunately this isnt the only poll to show that

RCP average shows Cruz beating her

 

[KHarvey16]

Head to head comparisons between parties on a national level are pretty meaningless at this point.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Unfortunately this isnt the only poll to show that

RCP average shows Cruz beating her

RCP average is of three meager polls including a FOX poll that throws the entire average out of balance. That's peanuts compared to the number of polls there would be in November. Pollsters also know they are judged on their final result so they don't fuck around.

 

[magnifico]

Unfortunately this isnt the only poll to show that

RCP average shows Cruz beating her

The Clintons will never be forgiven by a large part of the electorate for NAFTA. Many working class people who remember this will absolutely stay home (or vote repub) if she's the nominee.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

The Clintons will never be forgiven by a large part of the electorate for NAFTA. Many working class people who remember this will absolutely stay home if she's the nominee.

A large part of electorate would believe you if you said NAFTA was a new pop band. You are overestimating their memory and knowledge of policy.

 

[RustyNails]

The Clintons will never be forgiven by a large part of the electorate for NAFTA. Many working class people who remember this will absolutely stay home if she's the nominee.

Is that why Bill Clinton enjoys high favoribility ratings?

 

[Rubenov]

He has done nothing but disappoint me and I doubt history will view him kindly.

Wish we could bet on this somehow. I'll take the other side.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Well we have 4 other polls taken around the same time that don't really show anything that Q picked up so eventually we have to rule whether it is an outlier or not. I think their final polling is usually not bad but their polls leading up to the election have been pretty god damn terrible in terms of wild, inexplicable swings on a monthly basis.

The funny thing is that for all our arguing here I think we're in broad agreement about most things. The polls, taken in aggregate, show Clinton with a substantial national lead over Sanders. I also believe it's correct to characterize the Quinnipiac poll as an outlier. I'm just saying I'd rather "throw it into the pile," i.e. look at aggregates that include the Q poll.

I should have addressed this in my earlier reply but I should clarify that my problem with RCP isn't with their 2000 prediction per se, but that their methodology is too ad hoc. I see that terrible prediction as a symptom of their problems. They have somewhat cleaned up their practices since then but I'm still inclined to take Silver's approach over theirs.

 

[magnifico]

Is that why Bill Clinton enjoys high favoribility ratings?

I doubt his favorability ratings are high among anyone of the millions whos job was directly effected/lost by the bad trade deal he made right before he left office.

 

[Protein]

Hypothetically, what would happen if a majority of Bernie's younger voters decide to stay home if Hillary is nominated? Is it enough to effect the election if she goes up against someone like Rubio? That's what worries me.

 

[Prodigal Son]

Well we have 4 other polls taken around the same time that don't really show anything that Q picked up so eventually we have to rule whether it is an outlier or not. I think their final polling is usually not bad but their polls leading up to the election have been pretty god damn terrible in terms of wild, inexplicable swings on a monthly basis.



What does that have to do with the proposal being impossible and/or naive?

Idealistic? Sure. Impossible? Come on, now. Forming a formal coalition with the US's support, regardless of which nations it's comprised of is objectively a better approach to fighting ISIS than direct US aggression.

Hypothetically, what would happen if a majority of Bernie's younger voters decide to stay home if Hillary is nominated? Is it enough to effect the election if she goes up against someone like Rubio? That's what worries me.

Exactly what I've been saying. Should Clinton win, young voter turnout will be substantially lower than under Obama. Makes me worry about Rubio getting the nom.

 

[Rebel Leader]

if other polls follow suit, then whoa

unless its an outlier

It is an outlier poll. That is really all that needs to be said.

What does that mean?

 

[BoboBrazil]

Hypothetically, what would happen if a majority of Bernie's younger voters decide to stay home if Hillary is nominated? Is it enough to effect the election if she goes up against someone like Rubio? That's what worries me.

Young voters didn't come out for Bernie in Iowa and that's supposed to be one of his top states. His revolution is a whimper by millenials online that don't go to vote.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I doubt his favorability ratings are high among anyone of the millions whos job was directly effected/lost by the bad trade deal he made right before he left office.

NAFTA was signed in 1994 he was relected 2 year later and left office 7 years later. He's successor supported it and Obama ran in 2012 on free trade agreements with South Korean and Colombia

 

[GnawtyDog]

2 person race. Votes consolidate.


Let the new ones come in.

 

[magnifico]

NAFTA was signed in 1994 he was relected 2 year later and left office 7 years later. He's successor supported it and Obama ran in 2012 on free trade agreements with South Korean and Colombia

Ok, so before reelection. But of course his successors supported it. All of them were influenced by the same ruling class, running multinational corporations and in none of these negotiations are domestic workers' needs considered.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Ok, so before reelection. But of course his successors supported it. All of them were influenced by the same ruling class, running multinational corporations and in none of these negotiations are domestic workers' needs considered.

The post was about his favorbility. It's not seemed to hurt his standing with voters.

 

[diffusionx]

Young voters didn't come out for Bernie in Iowa and that's supposed to be one of his top states. His revolution is a whimper by millenials online that don't go to vote.

Maybe they thought that the caucus counts their twitter hashtags.

 

[Damaniel]

The Clintons will never be forgiven by a large part of the electorate for NAFTA. Many working class people who remember this will absolutely stay home (or vote repub) if she's the nominee.

A large part of the electorate doesn't even know what NAFTA is, and half of Bernie's supporters probably weren't even out of diapers when it was implemented. Yes, it kinda sucked, but from listening to Bernie's supporters you'd think it was the worst piece of legislation passed in the history of ever.

Bernie supporters should tread lightly when talking about the Clinton years. Bill was a very popular president and many are still fond of the state of the economy back then. That's probably part of the reason (right or wrong) that Hillary is still far ahead of Bernie (this single poll aside).

 

[AlphaDump]

What a horrible post, and ironic considering the nonstop complaining about "Bernie Bros" on the internet.

Not ironic, that is specific commentary on the subject.

What is ironic is you validating my comment within your very response.

 

[Prodigal Son]

Not ironic, that is specific commentary on the subject.

What is ironic is you validating my comment within your very response.

How does him calling you out on your ridiculous generalization of people based on their support of a candidate support your ridiculous generalization of people based on their support of a candidate?

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Idealistic? Sure. Impossible? Come on, now. Forming a formal coalition with the US's support, regardless of which nations it's comprised of is objectively a better approach to fighting ISIS than direct US aggression.

Sanders should have said that instead of talking about brokering peace with Saudi Arabia and Iran and then getting them to fight IS on the ground. They can't even agree on what to do with Assad but they're gonna fight together? Come on now indeed.

 

[magnifico]

A large part of the electorate doesn't even know what NAFTA is, and half of Bernie's supporters probably weren't even out of diapers when it was implemented. Yes, it kinda sucked, but from listening to Bernie's supporters you'd think it was the worst piece of legislation passed in the history of ever.

Bernie supporters should tread lightly when talking about the Clinton years. Bill was a very popular president and many are still fond of the state of the economy back then. That's probably part of the reason (right or wrong) that Hillary is still far ahead of Bernie (this single poll aside).

Yes he oversaw a period of economic expansion and a pretty good labor market (thanks to Robert Reich and easy credit) I still think that a large segment of disenfranchised voters saw NAFTA as a legitimate betrayal and the more people learn about how it effected our labor problem, the less popular he will be.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Yes he oversaw a period of economic expansion and a pretty good labor market (thanks to Robert Reich and easy credit) I still think that a large segment of disenfranchised voters saw NAFTA as a legitimate betrayal and the more people learn about how it effected our labor problem, the less popular he will be.

Thanks to Robert Reich? In what way?

 

[pigeon]

Idealistic? Sure. Impossible? Come on, now. Forming a formal coalition with the US's support, regardless of which nations it's comprised of is objectively a better approach to fighting ISIS than direct US aggression.

It's such a good idea that everybody already agrees on it. A tactic is not a strategy.

 

[magnifico]

Thanks to Robert Reich? In what way?

He was Clinton's first term Labor Secretary.

 

[AlphaDump]

How does him calling you out on your ridiculous generalization of people based on their support of a candidate support your ridiculous generalization of people based on their support of a candidate?

Because I am claiming that mine aren't ridiculous. You as a Bernie supportor currently represent my argument, so we can use your responses here in this thread, to not further derail, and as a tangible example of my commentary about bernie supports and the validity of their arguments. Knock yourself out.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

He was Clinton's first term Labor Secretary.

What do you think the Labor Secretary does?

 

[magnifico]

What do you think the Labor Secretary does?

He was a voice against policies brought up by wall street people in the cabinet that ran counter to domestic labor interests.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

He was a voice against policies brought up by wall street people in the cabinet that ran counter to domestic labor interests.

But they still passed NAFTA?

 

[Zok310]

These trade deals were written by corporations and their puppets sold us out by passing them. Alan Greenspan said "it didnt matter where the products were made" and the administrations (including Clinton) have allowed them to outsource jobs and manufacturing oversees at .15c/hr. No input or consideration from/for the American worker.
https://youtu.be/WJaW32ZTyKE

This was over 10 years ago and the situation have not improved even one bit.

 

[magnifico]

But they still passed NAFTA?

His voice lost that fight.

 

[ratcliffja]

I'm actually starting to believe Democrats are going to find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

For a party that is supposed to be about progress and appealing to younger voters, they have a bad history of using old, unappealing candidates other than Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. If the Republicans were better at dealing with minority voters, they'd have this election in a landslide.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

His voice lost that fight.

So you're telling me that the economy of the 90s is thanks to Robert Reich being Labor Secretary for 1 term? Is that what you're actually claiming?

 

[Prodigal Son]

Because I am claiming that mine aren't ridiculous. You as a Bernie supportor currently represent my argument, so we can use your responses here in this thread, to not further derail, and as a tangible example of my commentary about bernie supports and the validity of their arguments. Knock yourself out.

He called you out on making a generalization based on your anecdotal and limited experience with Bernie supporters. Your rebuttal is to that is to cite yet another example of your subjective experience with Bernie supporters? To what end?

Sanders should have said that instead of talking about brokering peace with Saudi Arabia and Iran and then getting them to fight IS on the ground. They can't even agree on what to do with Assad but they're gonna fight together? Come on now indeed.

The plan for a coalition does not live or die depending on whether or not we have support from both Saudi Arabia and Iran. WIth both or neither, we're forming a coalition. To reach out with peaceful diplomatic intent to these nations is not, in my view, too unrealistic of an approach. No one is saying it will be easy or quick. But should we be successful, it would be the most effect of offences we can make against ISIS without the use of American combatants.

 

[magnifico]

So you're telling me that the economy of the 90s is thanks to Robert Reich being Labor Secretary for 1 term? Is that what you're actually claiming?

I'm giving him credit for fighting a good fight for our interest in the midst of an administration run by heavy corporate/banking interests, not whether he was ultimately successful our not.

 

[RedSparc]

A large part of electorate would believe you if you said NAFTA was a new pop band. You are overestimating their memory and knowledge of policy.

Not really, her national unfavorbility ratings have hovered around 15% higher then her favorbility. This is why the general perception of her win in Iowa is considered a loss. She won't carry independents and the young base of the democraric party. Calling them out for not supporting team Hillary won't get them to support her, especially as she runs her primary campaign under the guise of "the audacity of nope". People want change, not more of the same. Ie a 3rd Obama term where wall street gets a pass, income inequality grows and the youth are crushed with education debt.

Her tone in last nights debate suggest that the race is indeed tightening and considering Sanders is favored by 18-30 year olds by 60pts suggest that quins polling (they poll cellphones and were within the margin of error, while PPP only does landlines which favors older people and had her winning Iowa by 10+) is more or less telling of the race becoming closer.

Well see, Nevada is roughly 30% independent. NAFTA and the TPP don't play well with independants.

Piketty pretty much endorsed Sanders today and Warren has either defended Sanders or agreed with him multiple times over the past two weeks. Shit is about to get interesting. The narrative around Sanders has been "I like him, but I don't think can beat Hillary/GOP". If that is changing then this is starting to look a lot like 2008. Hillary is trying to use the same argument against Sanders as she did Obama, her being the more electable candidate.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I'm giving him credit for fighting a good fight for our interest in the midst of an administration run by heavy corporate/banking interests, not whether he was ultimately successful our not.

"Yes he oversaw a period of economic expansion and a pretty good labor market (thanks to Robert Reich and easy credit)"

That sounds like more than just giving him credit for putting up a fight.

I honestly don't have the time to discuss all these different issues with five different people at the same time. I'm gonna go ahead and wrap up my efforts on this.

 

[magnifico]

"Yes he oversaw a period of economic expansion and a pretty good labor market (thanks to Robert Reich and easy credit)"

That sounds like more than just giving him credit for putting up a fight.

I honestly don't have the time to discuss all these different issues with five different people at the same time. I'm gonna go ahead and wrap up my efforts on this.

Well he defended our interests when he could and there was fast, easy credit and a tech bubble; What about those things wouldn't contribute to a temporary boom in the labor market in the 90s?

 

[Dude Abides]

I'm giving him credit for fighting a good fight for our interest in the midst of an administration run by heavy corporate/banking interests, not whether he was ultimately successful our not.

I don't think you understand what the Sec. Of Labor does.

 

[magnifico]

I don't think you understand what the Sec. Of Labor does.

The United States Secretary of Labor is the head of the U.S. Department of Labor, exercises control over the department, and enforces and suggests laws involving unions, the workplace, and all other issues involving any form of business-person controversies.

And he was on the side of the worker/unions protection in most cases.... What's not to understand?

 

[chadskin]

There's a new nationwide Reuters/Ipsos poll: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSMTZSAPEC253J02S1

"Clinton leads Sanders 48 percent to 45 percent among Democratic voters, according to the poll of 512 Americans, conducted Feb. 2-5 following the Iowa caucus. The poll has a credibility interval of 5 percentage points."

 

[BowieZ]

Because I am claiming that mine aren't ridiculous. You as a Bernie supportor currently represent my argument, so we can use your responses here in this thread, to not further derail, and as a tangible example of my commentary about bernie supports and the validity of their arguments. Knock yourself out.

If all supporters of a candidate are as homogenous as you sound, then based off your reasoning, all of yours are unintelligent.