Soapbox Killer
Grand Nagus
How the hell did this Huntsman Movie get Green lit? I didn't hate the first one, save for the fact that Kristen Stewart is "fairer" than Charlize Theron, the movie wasn't ass. But a sequel?
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Predict the Biggest Box Office Bomb of 2016
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Succinct Verbosity
Member
Would you not argue that Pacific Rim, that did not financially bomb, was still considered a "vom" because it wasn't successful enough?
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I forgot that actually existed.
Box Office Mojo has it grossing 197 worldwide. $2 million over its listed production budget.
A what?
I would argue that it didn't bomb, because it didn't. I wouldn't argue that it disappointed, financially. But disappointment and bomb are not synonyms.
NHarmonic.
Member
That Warcraft movie.
And the assassins creed movie releases this year? if so, that one too.
And the assassins creed movie releases this year? if so, that one too.
Scorpion Soldier
Member
We're talking about the fanbase however, not the general public. Warcraft will have to rely on mainstream audiences to succeed in the box office, and I simply don't see that happening unless there's a sudden turnaround right before release.
Anyone thinking Assassin's Creed will be delayed to somewhere in January-March 2017? I can see releasing a week after Star Wars: Rogue One biting them in the ass.
1 - Hollywood is creatively bankrupt
2 - first one made some decent money, so why not flip the coin twice
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Yeah. Pan has a listed 150 million budget, and made 125 worldwide. 35 domestically.
I believe people give even LESS of a fuck about Tarzan than they do Peter Pan. And WB spent more on Tarzan.
The first one made $396m on a $170m budget. So with Hollywood logic there's still some money to squeeze out of the franchise.
SocksAndShoes
Banned
My money's on this. Looks awful.
The first film did pretty well overall, and I imagine that the execs thought they got rid of its biggest problem by dropping the director and Stewart as a result of their very public affair getting out. The joke is sure to be on them.
I really hope that both Jessica Chastain and Emily Blunt get to make whatever the hell it is they want to in exchange for signing on to this film.
SenseiAsad
Member
Don't underestimate the religious fanatics with that second one.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
I don't know, I don't think anything will bomb as hard as Pan for a while.
NDP_Mulcair
Banned
Warcraft 3 came out in 2002, or 14 years ago.
World of Warcraft came out in late 2004, more than 11 years ago, and in the past few years it's become pretty irrelevant.
That's a long time for a franchise to maintain any sort of relevance in the mainstream eye without anything new.
We don't know the exact budget of Warcraft, except that it's a 9-figure movie (north of $100 million).
That's a LOT to put on an IP that's pretty obscure with the mainstream.
And Warcraft was niche back in the old PC / DOS days. It's not like it has any cultural resonance outside the nerds who used to play it back in the day.
Schweinehund
Member
Damn that Tarzan movie.
I think WC will break even but won't warrant enough for a sequel. Despite how much I love that franchise.
something something persecution complex.
I think WC will break even but won't warrant enough for a sequel. Despite how much I love that franchise.
something something persecution complex.
Which is odd because Pac Rim made 411M on a 190M budget. Seem's about the same to me?
TDLink
Member
There are lot of big bomb potentials this year, but I think Warcraft is probably safe from that. And anyone who thinks the superhero movies will bomb is delusional at this point (Fantastic Four last year was a very specific exception). Star Trek isn't going to bomb either. As much as some of the fans of the series hate the Abramsverse films, they do very well with the mainstream.
My top 5 picks for bombs:
Huntsman 2 could also be on on this list but the first one did pretty well so I'm not as sure on it as these other 5. I also think Jungle Book is going to end up being pretty good considering how the first trailer looked
To me the biggest wild card this year is Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. Harry Potter fans are fanatic, but how will they respond to this new film series? Same world...sort of...and completely different characters. With no real books preceding them. I think it definitely has the possibility of a bomb, but it could also be really successful. The introductory trailer isn't exactly doing it favours though...so time will tell.
My top 5 picks for bombs:
- Gods of Egypt
- Legend of Tarzan
- Assassin's Creed
- The 5th Wave
- Alice Through The Looking Glass
Huntsman 2 could also be on on this list but the first one did pretty well so I'm not as sure on it as these other 5. I also think Jungle Book is going to end up being pretty good considering how the first trailer looked
To me the biggest wild card this year is Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. Harry Potter fans are fanatic, but how will they respond to this new film series? Same world...sort of...and completely different characters. With no real books preceding them. I think it definitely has the possibility of a bomb, but it could also be really successful. The introductory trailer isn't exactly doing it favours though...so time will tell.
Tarzan seems like the safe bet, either that or Gods of Egypt. Both are very very weird decisions by the studios. Assassin's Creed could either be a surprise hit or a barely surviving movie like Prince of Persia was.
Warcraft seems like a huge roll of the dice, but like others have said the WW BO will save it even if it's lukewarm domestically.
Warcraft seems like a huge roll of the dice, but like others have said the WW BO will save it even if it's lukewarm domestically.
Scorpion Soldier
Member
The issue with Pacific Rim is that it made only a $100 million domestic, with the rest of its gross coming from international markets. I'm not sure about the marketing budget, but I believe Pacific Rim barely broke even, and it had China to thank for it.
PanicFreak
Member
This. It looks awful. Like truly awful.
Resident Evil too.
Markitron
Is currently staging a hunger strike outside Gearbox HQ while trying to hate them to death
This is like Rise of the Tomb Raider all over again, they have to push that release date. Rogue One won't do TFA numbers, but it will still clear a billion easily.
TDLink
Member
I think both Resident Evil and Underworld are too low budget to ever qualify as biggest bombs. Even though they aren't super successful/less people seethem, they still make a healthy profit since their budget is low.
True and I'm pretty sure they spent a ton on marketing Pac Rim.
Oh, I know that. I was just saying that they are still being made. They are both really great for WW profits.
RustyNails
Member
Assassins Creed
Preach it. They're my guilty pleasure movies, I don't think I'll ever get sick of them.
Walker_Boh
Member
They are also a fickle bunch. I work at a movie theater in a religious area, I've seen religious movies do very well and bomb inexplicably. We had a Mormon documentary that sold out every showing for a couple of weeks and then when had another Mormon movie come out the month after and bomb horribly.
Dash_Riprock
Member
I'm predicting ID4-2 to be the Jurassic World of 2016, so I very much doubt Tarzen 2 can survive even if it gets critical praise/WoM.
It was probably made with the spare change Abrams had in his pocket that day, so I doubt it.
Yeah I think ID4-2 is going to be huge.
Markitron
Is currently staging a hunger strike outside Gearbox HQ while trying to hate them to death
There's a few people here that don't understand the concept of a BO bomb. Cloverfield (and Deadpool) probably won't bomb because it likely cost them nothing to make.
Pacific Rim was not a really good movie.
Scorpion Soldier
Member
What a fascinating insight into how Hollywood works...
While it's obviously got the disadvantage of not being a well known book in the US, it's also not coming out on the same day as those films.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I'm not. It's going to do pretty well. Maybe not super-blockbuster status like E.T., but it's gonna make its budget back domestically at the very least, so that takes it out of consideration for this thread.
It's a Walt Disney movie directed by Spielberg based on a somewhat popular children's book.
NDP_Mulcair
Banned
Oh they did. Easily $50+ million.
Scorpion Soldier
Member
Whilst Disney has had their fair share of bombs, I don't see this being one of them. Disney knows how to handle and market properties like that.
Saucycarpdog
Member
Doesn't that come out the same day as Xmen Apocalypse?
Thanks to how shit the first one was. Jungle Book will recoup the losses however.
Yeah, Tarzan and that will be fighting for the title.
Who got time for a non Disney Jungle Book?
I think Deadpool will make money, but not enough to brag about or lineup a sequel
George Oscar Bluth II
Banned
I think it'll comfortably make its money back and then some.
GraveRobberX
Platinum Trophy: Learned to Shit While Upright Again.
I think Warcraft will be a 20/80 split
Domestic 20%, International 80% -5% either way
Guessing 65Mil opening weekend
Russia, China, and Europe will carry it
Domestic 20%, International 80% -5% either way
Guessing 65Mil opening weekend
Russia, China, and Europe will carry it
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