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[Imperfected]

What this post is telling me its that PS4 will see a steeper post launch drop off.

Er... why?

I'm not saying it won't have a steep drop-off, but the steepest drop-off you see in sales is always Holiday -> Post-Holiday. That's why (for example) the XB1 selling a tenth as much in January is only "deeply worrying" and not "completely cataclysmic". That's why even when the signs of trouble were clear as day for Wii-U, it took a while for people to really see them: the sales fall-off happened post-holiday, and was largely expected.

Expecting something released outside of the holidays to have a steeper decline than something released during the holidays is actually kind of silly. Consumers' buying habits this time of year aren't stacked as heavily toward needing to acquire merchandise by a certain date; they're more likely to buy things whenever their finances allow rather than rushing a purchase.

If you were looking for a sign of a potential drop-off it would be that Sony had pre-orders open for months and months in advance. That's a far more worrying sign for their week-to-week sales than the fact we're in the doldrums of winter.

 

[jblank83]

So the only ones to beat it with that opening were PS2 and Wii, two of the best selling consoles ever made? And it accomplished this in a country where console gaming is dying fast? Not bad... not bad at all actually.

Well fucking done I say. Nothing stops this train indeed.

And it barely outsold the Wii U by less than 15k. I'm not sure how anyone can look at these numbers and conclude anything.

What matters is the long term.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

So it barely outsold the disaster known as Wii U, even with the insane hype. If sales decline sharply over the next few weeks, it's safe to say that the home console market is dead in Japan.

The WiiU was launched during the holidays and still got outsold.

Sales will decline sharply as they did for even the 3DS. PS2 sales declined sharply as well however I am told thats due to stock problems.

Home console market is far from dead.

 

[cafemomo]

PS2 first year was barren as well and that performed fine.

L E L

 

[theprodigy]

We are comparing the PS4 to the PS2 now?

Okay!

It's. Dragonsworne.
seriously just stop responding

 

[EmptySpace]

Yeah, there are gonna be a ton of heavy hitters later on, but for the time being it's ded.

no it isn't. stop dreaming.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

L E L

That was the PS2's second year in Japan.

Idealistically this could be a part of the 2015 lineup:

GT7
FFXV
MGSV

 

[ethomaz]

L E L

Second holiday.

 

[Tripon]

Console gaming is alive and well in Japan. Spreading FUD about an incomplete release schedule isn't going to change that.

Rejoice.

This is a bit ironic coming from you. I would think you of all people would be cautiously realistic about launch numbers.

 

[opticalmace]

Second holiday.

What a lineup though. Wow.

 

[RyougaSaotome]

So it barely outsold the disaster known as Wii U, even with the insane hype. If sales decline sharply over the next few weeks, it's safe to say that the home console market is dead in Japan.

Arguably the Wii U wasn't at all a disaster at launch.

It was the weeks after the fact that made it a disaster.

 

[SgtCobra]

L E L

Good times. Shits on everything we have atm, but I'm sure it will get better.

 

[DragonSworne]

L E L

PS2 launched in March 2000....

 

[RaikuHebi]

But it was supposed to be DOOMED. DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!

That was the PS2's second year in Japan.

In which case the PS4 lineup will have a similar variety by the equivalent timeframe.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

LOL

also DragonSworne stop, you're not convincing anybody

Let him be...please lol we need a few clowns on here, ive learned to appreciate them as do the mods lol

 

[Shin-Ra]

Best-selling games console by launch weekend over the past seven years.

 

[SwiftDeath]

That was the PS2's second year in Japan.

Idealistically this could be a part of the 2015 lineup:

GT7
FFXV
MGSV

The way verendus talks about it, it sounds like Sony has stacked 2015 so I wouldn't be surprised if there are a lot of heavy hitters to be honest

 

[darkwing]

First time i've seen this gif. lol

clearly you have not played the Knack,the Mario killer

 

[StreetsAhead]

Arguably the Wii U wasn't at all a disaster at launch.

It was the weeks after the fact that made it a disaster.

Yep. It wasn't until after launch when the sales collapsed and they delayed all buy Game & Wario of all things out of the 'launch window' that the disaster began to take shape.

 

[cafemomo]

no it isn't. stop dreaming.

Yes it is.

March: Ground Zeroes
April: FF14ARR & natural doctrine

Other titles such as Guilty Gear and that one Capcom F2P don't have a definitive release date.

So for the next two months, it's pretty barren

 

[MidBoss]

OBJECTION!

HELIX HAS SPOKEN

Not bad..

http://askhelixfossil.com/#btwvms

 

[EmptySpace]

Yes it is.

March: Ground Zeroes
April: FF14ARR & natural doctrine

Other titles such as Guilty Gear and that one Capcom F2P don't have a definitive release date.

So for the next two months, it's pretty barren

so 3rd parties don't exist? mkay.

games like infamous second son, thief, child of light, wolfenstein, mlb, etc. exist.

 

[SolidSnakex]

The biggest first year title for the PS2 in Japan was Onimusha. It went on to sell over a million units. And it was released right before the onslaught happened (GT3 leading that).

 

[gundamkyoukai]

L E L

He is most likely talking about Japan where PS2 came out in march 2000.

 

[timetokill]

Just a tad over Wii U launch numbers. Interesting.

Best-selling games console by launch weekend over the past seven years.

In other words, best selling games console since the last generation that games consoles were released.

 

[Juliet's 8½ Spirits]

Wow, great numbers; I honestly expected <100k.
Sonydomination confirmed for this gen

 

[theprodigy]

so 3rd parties don't exist? mkay.

whoa Ground Zeroes and FF14 are Sony first party now?
shit I've missed everything

 

[Visceir]

Hopefully it won't take japanese developers 5 years to get games done for it and it might actually continue seeing decent sales.

 

[Into]

L E L

Second year for Japan. First year for ps2 in Japan was shockingly bad. It still sold like a King

 

[SwiftDeath]

Not bad..

http://askhelixfossil.com/#btwvms

Helix Fossil betrayanator

http://askhelixfossil.com/#zmq46m

 

[ethomaz]

What a lineup though. Wow.

Yeap impressive... but I guess PS4 will have a better second holiday than PS2 (End of 2015).

Edit - Some guesses: GT7, KH3, The Last Guardian... the things will be good.

 

[Takao]

The problem for PS4 is that this is the confirmed post launch support in Japan:

03/19
Natural Doctrine
Nobunaga no Yabou Online: Tenka Mugen no Shou

03/20
Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes

04/14
Final Fantasy XIV Online: Shinsei Eorzea

05/01
Child of Light

There will probably be a few more Japanese localizations of some western games, and maybe some ultra niche Japanese stuff, but yeah ...

 

[cafemomo]

so 3rd parties don't exist? mkay.

What other Japanese centric 3rd party games are coming out in the coming weeks then?

 

[Salex_]

I'm amazed at the amount of people who completely ignore context. There's one in the OP if you actually look at the dates.

The problem for PS4 is that this is the confirmed post launch support in Japan:

03/19
Natural Doctrine
Nobunaga no Yabou Online: Tenka Mugen no Shou

03/20
Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes

04/14
Final Fantasy XIV Online: Shinsei Eorzea

05/01
Child of Light

There will probably be a few more Japanese localizations of some western games, and maybe some ultra niche Japanese stuff, but yeah ...

Those are the only ones with confirmed release dates. There's plenty of "2014" titles that will have set dates soon. Games like Lily Bergamo and Guilty Gear Xrd.

 

[Jamix012]

so 3rd parties don't exist? mkay.

games like infamous second son, thief, child of light, wolfenstein, mlb, etc. exist.

Unfortunately for you, the list that SuppaDoopa gave is the current lineup for PS4 Japan for those months. Total.

I'll stick my neck out or a 2nd week prediction: It'll drop harder than both the Wii U and Vita. Only because it's not holidays, but still, second week PS4 %Drop> %Drop Wii U and Vita.

 

[AniHawk]

The problem for PS4 is that this is the confirmed post launch support in Japan:

03/19
Natural Doctrine
Nobunaga no Yabou Online: Tenka Mugen no Shou

03/20
Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes

04/14
Final Fantasy XIV Online: Shinsei Eorzea

05/01
Child of Light

There will probably be a few more Japanese localizations of some western games, and maybe some ultra niche Japanese stuff, but yeah ...

it should do fine over time. 2015 will be a major transition period and 2016 will be the start of good times.

 

[EmptySpace]

What other Japanese centric 3rd party games are coming out in the coming weeks then?

why does it have to be japanese-centric? this narrow-mindedness and ignorance is perplexing. japanese play killzone, battlefield. they play games, period. we are talking about games coming out for the ps4, not games you think the japanese will like more.

as i've said, there'll be infamous, thief, child of light, mlb, mgs5, ff14 beta, etc. they will have a lot to play.

 

[FantasticMrFoxdie]

Deep Down will help. Delayed until after the summer, supposedly.

Whoa source video on this?

 

[Jamix012]

why does it have to be japanese-centric? this narrow-mindedness and ignorance is perplexing. japanese play killzone, battlefield. they play games, period. we are talking about games coming out for the ps4, not games you think the japanese will like more.

as i've said, there'll be infamous, thief, child of light, mlb, mgs5, ff14 beta, etc. they will have a lot to play.

I'm sure the 30,000-90,000 people who pick up KillZone in Japan will appreciate this sentiment. Compared to the west, these games aren't really system sellers.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

I'm amazed at the amount of people who completely ignore context. There's one in the OP if you actually look at the dates.


Those are the only ones with confirmed release dates. There's plenty of "2014" titles that will have set dates soon. Games like Lily Bergamo and Guilty Gear Xrd.

When was lily bergamo revealed? Like a year ago? Shouldnt we get a localized one too? this year?

 

[gribbles]

why does it have to be japanese-centric? this narrow-mindedness and ignorance is perplexing. japanese play killzone, battlefield. they play games, period. we are talking about games coming out for the ps4, not games you think the japanese will like more.

as i've said, there'll be infamous, thief, child of light, mlb, mgs5, ff14 beta, etc. they will have a lot to play.

Because they prefer japanese-centric games? Yes, there are people in Japan who play FPSes like KZ and BF. But they are a small niche. The vast majority prefer JRPGs and games like Monster Hunter. Oh, and dating sims.

 

[Replicant]

I'm amazed at the amount of people who completely ignore context. There's one in the OP if you actually look at the dates.

Yeah, launch month-wise, the only 2 that were comparable were PS2 and Xbox. Both launched during non-holiday period.

As for future sales, I think the biggest issue for Sony so far is that they can't even produce enough units for sale. Now they have to service the entire world market, I don't know how much they can supply to each continent per month.

 

[StoopKid]

Speaking of selling more than Wii U....

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=95089513&postcount=120

Lol poor noobasuar

 

[darkwing]

Speaking of selling more than Wii U....

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=95089513&postcount=120

dayum

 

[Dreamgazer]

Lol poor noobasuar

It ain't the first time.

 

[Into]

Lol poor noobasuar

Oh my, i remember this now

 

[RyougaSaotome]

why does it have to be japanese-centric? this narrow-mindedness and ignorance is perplexing. japanese play killzone, battlefield. they play games, period. we are talking about games coming out for the ps4, not games you think the japanese will like more.

as i've said, there'll be infamous, thief, child of light, mlb, mgs5, ff14 beta, etc. they will have a lot to play.

Living here, I can tell you right now that while those games have their fans, they're pretty goddamn niche.

Most of those won't be moving consoles or keeping the weekly units from dropping like every other console.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

Lol poor noobasuar

Ehh. Dude has been preaching the "doom" of console gaming for over a year. Some people just cant accept the WiiU is a undesirable console.

This by far his best post on the subject

http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=95068309&postcount=17

Another gem :-

http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=54709719&postcount=699

 

[100MS]

launch numbers isn't the measure of anything. first-year sales are, and i bet it'd be huge. every now and again we get the "consoles are dying" or "japanese gaming abandons consoles" or some other bullcrap.

People can finally stop saying console gaming is dead in Japan. These numbers are well above expected sales from NeoGAF users.

Well,

 

[cafemomo]

Because they prefer japanese-centric games? Yes, there are people in Japan who play FPSes like KZ and BF. But they are a small niche. The vast majority prefer JRPGs and games like Monster Hunter. Oh, and dating sims.

this
Of course games like Killzone, CoD Ghost, Brokenfield 4 will sell in Japan no one is denying that, but it would vastly help the PS4 early on if there are a bit more Japanese games coming out.