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[yurinka]

Great numbers that you provide. Its impossible for PS4 to have the same growth as Wii, but in the end i am pretty sure that PS4 going to sell more consoles then the Wii did.

Well, Wii was fighting against PS3 and 360. XBO is slightly above them, and adding a bit of WiiU this means that PS4 almost half of the competition the Wii had.

And well, after the first year Wii already had some of its biggest guns in the market, which is not the case of PS4. Gran Turismo, Uncharted, God of War, Metal Gear, Resident Evil, Final Fantasy etc still have to debut on PS4.

 

[KillerMan91]

If Sony ships over 2 million PS4s this quarter it will have better FY than PS3 ever had. Should be rather easily accomplished (last year they shipped 3 million during Q4).

 

[staticneuron]

We can take into consideration PS3 reached 80 million only on Nov. 2013.

Adding the quarters above, you have 6.7 million. So, the PS3 is below 86.7 million as of December 2014 (by a million or two).

As for the Xbox 360, it was at 83.7 million shipped as of Mar 2014; the Xbox One, 5.1 million.

360+XBO from Apr to Dec = 10.1 million

The Xbox One has reached 10 million, so it has shipped no less than 4.9 million. So, the Xbox 360 is below 88.9 million as of December 2014 (by a million or two or three =P).

Why would you subtract a million or two from the PS3 number? When they said 80 million that was announced on November 2nd. The vast majority of the sales for that period would have been "after" the announcement (Black Friday and Christmas sales).

There is no reason to believe that the bulk of sales for the quarter happened before the announcement.

EDIT: to be more precise they announced 80 million reached 3 days after previous quarter ended so it is more of a safe bet to assume the entire Q3 results that relate to the PS3 are not included in the 80 million milestone announcement.

 

[LegendofDragoonLives]

the ps4 is a saving grace for Sony as they recover

Hopefully they start really investing into it..
- more marketing money for the dev teams that aren't the top 4
- more games being funded, 2nd/3rd party funded games
- money being added on PSN. Add UI/UX designers to clean that shit up, fix infrastructure, more proper updates instead of the stability updates

this I expect to start happening this year, with 3 studios in mind:
- acquisitions will be happening to buy 2nd party dev teams

 

[RisesRises]

Yup. I got caught up in it too much.

Anyway.

PS4 Vs Wii comparison below.

Last Gen Vs Current Gen! (Aligned launches)

CURRENT GEN

PS4 CY2013- 4.50m
PS4 CY2014- 15.40m
Total: 19.90m

XOne CY 2013- 3.90m
XOne CY 2014- ~7.60m+
Total: 11.50m-12.50m (based on estimates)

WiiU CY2012- 3.06m
WiiU CY2013- 2.80m
Total: 5.86m

Cumulative total: 37.25m - 38.25m

LAST GEN

PS3 CY2006- 1.86m
PS3 CY2007- 8.85m
Total: 10.71m

X360 CY2005- 1.50m
X360 CY2006- 8.90m
Total: 10.40m

Wii CY2006- 3.19m
Wii CY2007- 16.95m
Total: 20.14m

Cumulative total: 41.25m

PS4 Vs PS3

PS4 CY2014- 15.40m
PS3 CY2014- 3.40m

It seems likely that Xbox 360 may have outsold PS3 last year which means I'm going to be widening the prediction for Xbox One shipments to between 11.5m to 12.5m with an average of ~12m shipped worldwide.

Clearly MS have been selling in more than they need to.

I'm also revising my prediction I made for cumulative shipments this year.

PS4 - More than 36 million cumulative shipments
One - More than 21 million cumulative shipments
WiU - More than 13 million cumulative shipments

as of Dec 31st 2015.

That WII next quarter will be almost impossible to reach

 

[jcm]

Sony's stock is now the highest it has been since July 2011.

They've been on a tear. On January 7, 2014, when Ecotic made this thread, Sony's stock was at 1800, giving them a market cap of 1.86T yen. Nintendo's stock was at 14,310, giving them a market cap of 1.93 trillion yen.

Today, Sony's stock is at 2,769, giving them a market cap of 3.21T yen. Nintendo's stock is at 11,340, giving them a market cap of 1.64T yen. Here's a comparison chart of them since that time.

 

[Y2Kev]

Ps4 sold 75 million last month as per Aqua


Phil spencer crying

 

[The Artisan]

ars technica just came out with an article about all this

http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2015/02/ps4s-sales-dominance-slackens-slightly-in-holiday-quarter/

 

[Xando]

ars technica just came out with an article about all this

http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2015/02/ps4s-sales-dominance-slackens-slightly-in-holiday-quarter/

Don't read too much into it.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Don't read too much into it.

nailed it

 

[stryke]

I think it is in response to what was happening in the MS thread but I agree with you. There is no point in doubting the veracity of these results.

That thread got boring fast. Not to mention the arguments over some hypothetically impossible Sony monopoly over gaming.

 

[AmyS]

[Arstechnica]

PS4’s sales dominance slackens slightly in holiday season
Sony still leads worldwide sales, but Microsoft shows new momentum.

Sony extended its life-to-date sales lead in the holiday quarter, but not by as much as in previous quarters.

Three months ago, our look at the state of the worldwide battle over the living room console market showed Sony dominating, both in lifetime shipments and those for the trailing six months. New numbers for the all-important holiday quarter show Sony maintaining its lead but Microsoft slowing Sony's runaway momentum.

Sony's latest quarterly report shows 6.4 million PlayStation 4 units shipped worldwide between October and December of 2014, bringing the console's lifetime shipment total to 19.9 million. Last month, Sony announced that it had sold 18.5 million of those shipped consoles "through to consumers" as of January 5, suggesting a gap of about 1.4 million consoles between the "shipped" and "sold" numbers.

That seven percent difference might sound significant, but it represents just over one average month of Sony's overall 2014 shipments. This suggests that retailers worldwide are simply ordering shipments they expect to sell in the very near future and that shipments are a decent time-shifted proxy for sales to homes (all numbers in the remainder of this piece represent shipments to retailers, even when "sales" is used as a shorthand).

Tracking Xbox One sales, as usual, is a little trickier. Microsoft reported 6.6 million shipments of "Xbox consoles" during the 2014 holidays, but it didn't break down how many of those came from the legacy Xbox 360. We know from previous financial reports that the Xbox 360 shipped 3.5 million units in the 2013 holiday quarter. Our best guess, based on trends from previous and current console transitions, is that the older system sold between 33 and 60 percent of that number over the 2014 holidays.

That leaves anywhere from 4.5 to 5.45 million Xbox One shipments for the 2014 holiday quarter. Added to our previous estimates, our best guess range for lifetime Xbox One shipments now falls between 11.34 million and 12.95 million units.
Sony and Microsoft's numbers come on top of a Nintendo earnings report showing 1.91 million Wii U shipments for the holiday quarter and 9.3 million shipments for the system overall since its late 2012 launch. That's a slight improvement from Nintendo's tepid 2013 performance, but it's probably not enough to make the system a serious target for third-party publishers.

For the first months of 2014, Sony looked like it was running away with the console market...

...but Microsoft made the holiday quarter look much more competitive.

A familiar-looking market

All in all, the holiday reports show Sony maintaining its worldwide lead in console shipments but Microsoft tilting the recent sales momentum slightly in its favor. For the first nine months of 2014, for instance, the PS4 represented roughly 71 to 75 percent of the "two-console" market shared with the Xbox One. During the holiday quarter, Sony's proportion of that market was whittled down significantly, to 54 to 59 percent.

That still represents a majority for Sony, of course, and it means that Microsoft still slowly lost ground in the battle of raw, life-to-date shipment numbers during the holidays. But it represents a blunting of what had been some crushing sales momentum for the PS4, and it makes it much less likely that Sony will come to utterly dominate the entire console generation, PlayStation 2-style, any time in the near future.

Worldwide numbers can also obscure Microsoft's regional sales strengths. While the Xbox One continues to be a non-factor in Japan, Microsoft's system outsold the PS4 in both November and December in the US, according to NPD (though we don't know the exact margin of the sales difference).

Microsoft probably owes a lot of that American success to aggressive holiday pricing, which has now been extended into the new year, and the addition of bundled software like Sunset Overdrive and Assassin's Creed: Unity. The fact that Sony added a free downloadable game to the $400 PS4 package in December was likely an acknowledgment that these moves by Microsoft were having an effect on the US market.

Sony's sales have been a pretty straight line since launch. Microsoft's sales curl upward to match a similar pace during the holidays.

Sony's share of the market isn't increasing as quickly as it once was, as Nintendo continues to bleed market share.

The rest here:
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2015/02/ps4s-sales-dominance-slackens-slightly-in-holiday-quarter/

 

[ZhugeEX]

Ps4 sold 75 million last month as per Aqua


Phil spencer crying

That's like 5% of the population of China!!!! The artisan was right all along!

 

[Javin98]

[Arstechnica]

Sony extended its life-to-date sales lead in the holiday quarter, but not by as much as in previous quarters.

For the first months of 2014, Sony looked like it was running away with the console market...

...but Microsoft made the holiday quarter look much more competitive.

Sony's sales have been a pretty straight line since launch. Microsoft's sales curl upward to match a similar pace during the holidays.

Sony's share of the market isn't increasing as quickly as it once was, as Nintendo continues to bleed market share.

The rest here:
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2015/02/ps4s-sales-dominance-slackens-slightly-in-holiday-quarter/

LOL, what the hell? This is so full of shit! Do these people writing the articles even know what they're talking about?

 

[Dazza]

Arstechnica has been a bit of a paid for corporate mouth piece in the last few years, it's a pity it use to be one of my favourite tech sites along time ago

 

[johnny956]

Arstechnica has been a bit of a paid for corporate mouth piece in the last few years, it's a pity it use to be one of my favourite tech sites along time ago

How much are these numbers actually off?

 

[The Artisan]

That's like 5% of the population of China!!!! The artisan was right all along!

very funny.

for the record, the 1% shenanigan wasn't something I pulled out of thin air, it was from a reviewtechusa video which I was then told is someone to follow without expecting much substance.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

LOL, what the hell? This is so full of shit! Do these people writing the articles even know what they're talking about?

I kno right. Nobody knows anything. Everyone is full of shit.

Spoiler

Those numbers are around what everyone else is saying. Literally the exact same everyone has said, except in chart form. High and low estimations. I don't get the discontent.

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

very funny.

for the record, the 1% shenanigan wasn't something I pulled out of thin air, it was from a reviewtechusa video which I was then told is someone to follow without expecting much substance.

As I told you. Gaf will never let it go. Like... ever.

 

[The Artisan]

Don't read too much into it.

I had a feeling the premise was suspicious.

 

[Aquamarine]

Ps4 sold 75 million last month as per Aqua


Phil spencer crying

you're such a tease~

 

[BKK]

We can take into consideration PS3 reached 80 million only on Nov. 2013.

Adding the quarters above, you have 6.7 million. So, the PS3 is below 86.7 million as of December 2014 (by a million or two).

With PS2+PS3 combined shipments of 245.3 million that puts PS2 at >158.6 million. I wonder if it managed to hit 160 million. Probably not as they tend to announce 10 million milestones.

 

[Kazuma Kiryu]

I really wouldn't read too much into these PS4 sales numbers, but hey, that's just me.

 

[ZhugeEX]

I kno right. Nobody knows anything. Everyone is full of shit.

Spoiler

Those numbers are around what everyone else is saying. Literally the exact same everyone has said, except in chart form. High and low estimations. I don't get the discontent.

To be fair it does have Wii U 100k higher than it should be. That Nintendo bias!!!!!

 

[Handy Fake]

 

[Kayant]

[Arstechnica]

Worldwide numbers can also obscure Microsoft's regional sales strengths. While the Xbox One continues to be a non-factor in Japan, Microsoft's system outsold the PS4 in both November and December in the US, according to NPD (though we don't know the exact margin of the sales difference).

Right which is why you also failed to mention PS4 outselling it in Nov+Dec in the UK.

Yh Ars we will continue to not read much into it.

 

[B.O.O.M]

lol Arse Technica quotations read like a PR agency damage control press release for MS in some parts

 

[STEaMkb]

This is artfully crafted.

All in all, the holiday reports show Sony maintaining its worldwide lead in console shipments but Microsoft tilting the recent sales momentum slightly in its favor. For the first nine months of 2014, for instance, the PS4 represented roughly 71 to 75 percent of the "two-console" market shared with the Xbox One. During the holiday quarter, Sony's proportion of that market was whittled down significantly, to 54 to 59 percent.

That still represents a majority for Sony, of course...

Then why claim (incorrectly) that Microsoft has tilted "the recent sales momentum slightly in its favor" when clearly they have not? What Kyle Orland should have written is "holiday reports show Sony maintaining its worldwide lead in console sales but Microsoft reduced the angle of the tilt somewhat."

Unless he is talking about the United States. But no, that can't be correct, because in a subsequent paragraph he introduces the United States in a manner that strongly implies he was talking universally ("Worldwide numbers can also obscure Microsoft's regional sales strengths. While the Xbox One continues to be a non-factor in Japan, Microsoft's system outsold the PS4 in both November and December in the US...").

How odd that his errors should all fall in the same direction. And bonus points for associating Sony with 'shipping' and Microsoft with actual 'sales'.

 

[Dragonborn]

Right which is why you also failed to mention PS4 outselling it in Nov+Dec in the UK.

Yh Ars we will continue to not read much into it.

Just another classic Ars article man. The way they try skewing the numbers to make MS look better, it's truly amazing.

 

[Occam]

lol Arse Technica quotations read like a PR agency damage control press release for MS in some parts

In some parts only?

That article is shameful.

 

[Cidd]

[Arstechnica]

Sony extended its life-to-date sales lead in the holiday quarter, but not by as much as in previous quarters.

For the first months of 2014, Sony looked like it was running away with the console market...

...but Microsoft made the holiday quarter look much more competitive.

Sony's sales have been a pretty straight line since launch. Microsoft's sales curl upward to match a similar pace during the holidays.

Sony's share of the market isn't increasing as quickly as it once was, as Nintendo continues to bleed market share.

The rest here:
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2015/02/ps4s-sales-dominance-slackens-slightly-in-holiday-quarter/

I wouldn't look too much into this...


Arse trying way too hard.

 

[hawk2025]

How much are these numbers actually off?

The numbers seem right.

But the analysis is weak at best. Once again, these journalists need to at least consult people with some basic knowledge of data analysis before writing articles.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Why does Ars have to make up a non existent narrative to their writing?

"PS4 is doing ok...i guess...but MS is coming back strong because they won two months in the US the gap is closing!"

 

[boredandlazy]

[Arstechnica]

Sony extended its life-to-date sales lead in the holiday quarter, but not by as much as in previous quarters.

For the first months of 2014, Sony looked like it was running away with the console market...

...but Microsoft made the holiday quarter look much more competitive.

Sony's sales have been a pretty straight line since launch. Microsoft's sales curl upward to match a similar pace during the holidays.

Sony's share of the market isn't increasing as quickly as it once was, as Nintendo continues to bleed market share.

The rest here:
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2015/02/ps4s-sales-dominance-slackens-slightly-in-holiday-quarter/

Are these the new Polygon Mario Kart graphs?

 

[cakely]

The Ars article isn't that bad guys. The numbers are pretty much exactly what we're discussing in this thread, to the point where I wonder if some of their research was done here.

Microsoft did lose by a little less last quarter and I think that's all the "narrative" in the article is about.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Sony's sales have been a pretty straight line since launch. Microsoft's sales curl upward to match a similar pace during the holidays.

Sony's share of the market isn't increasing as quickly as it once was, as Nintendo continues to bleed market share.

Wtf is this..i like how they try and phrase the sales in terms of 'market share'. As if its a matter of MS catching up to Sony's actual sales instead of only temporarily increasing the rate of sale(from a much weaker rate) over the holidays while Sony keeps strong pace throughout the year.

"Sony's sales are stagnant while MS's continue to grow! Gap is closing!"


Does it sound like that to anyone else?

 

[Occam]

@AmyS
Mind me posting this as a new thread? I think this deserves some more exposure.

 

[Verendus]

Great article by Arstechnica which helps adds some good perspective, and much needed balance, to the situation. Fine, fine work. I'm mighty impressed.

 

[stryke]

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/235769/Sony_sold_64_million_PS4s_in_the_end_of_2014.php

As part of its financial results, Sony has announced [PDF] that the PlayStation 4 sold 6.4 million units during the last three months of 2014 -- a leap from 4.5 million units for the same period of the prior year, its launch period.

It's not entirely clear if these are sales to consumers or to retailers based on the statement....

I think Gamasutra needs to start writing about something else if they can't distinguish between sold to retailers or consumers in a financial report.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Hi Guys, just a quick one regarding sell through.

AMD announced that PS4 and X1 install base was nearly 30 million as of the end of 2014. A lot of people think AMD meant 30 million shipped units between PS4 and X1 but Lisa Su, later clarified that they were talking about sales from their customers (Sony & MS) to end users (consumers).

So what AMD were actually saying is that cumulative sell through of PS4 and X1 was nearly 30m units before the end of 2014. We can say that ~18.5m units were PS4's and that an absolute maximum of 11.5m were Xbox One's.

Take Two have now released information that says sell through of PS4 and X1 has been very strong with a combined installed base of these platforms exceeding 29 million worldwide by the end of December according to IDG estimates.

So now we can narrow down that the install base is more than 29m but less than 30m assuming AMD and Take Two are using the same source.

Therefore we can say with some confidence that estimated sell through of PS4 will be around ~18.5m and estimated sell through of Xbox One will be between ~10.5m to ~11.5m.

Whilst not an exact figure for X1 it's as close as we'll get.

 

[Nightengale]

I think Gamasutra needs to start writing about something else if they can't distinguish between sold to retailers or consumers in a financial report.

SMH

 

[RoboPlato]

Ps4 sold 75 million last month as per Aqua


Phil spencer crying

MS still has 1% of China on lockdown. Gap closed.

 

[Xando]

Hi Guys, just a quick one regarding sell through.

AMD announced that PS4 and X1 install base was nearly 30 million as of the end of 2014. A lot of people think AMD meant 30 million shipped units between PS4 and X1 but Lisa Su, later clarified that they were talking about sales from their customers (Sony & MS) to end users (consumers).

So what AMD were actually saying is that cumulative sell through of PS4 and X1 was nearly 30m units before the end of 2014. We can say that ~18.5m units were PS4's and that an absolute maximum of 11.5m were Xbox One's.

Take Two have now released information that says sell through of PS4 and X1 has been very strong with a combined installed base of these platforms exceeding 29 million worldwide by the end of December according to IDG estimates.

So now we can narrow down that the install base is more than 29m but less than 30m assuming AMD and Take Two are using the same source.

Therefore we can say with some confidence that estimated sell through of PS4 will be around ~18.5m and estimated sell through of Xbox One will be between ~10.5m to ~11.5m.

Whilst not an exact figure for X1 it's as close as we'll get.

Looks like my 10.5 million prediction was fairly reasonable.
I wonder if PS4 can keep it's momentum in the first half of 2015 and if the XB can win some momentum despite not having much in Q1 and 2, wouldn't wonder me if they start a price cut in europe..

 

[samar11]

Hi Guys, just a quick one regarding sell through.

AMD announced that PS4 and X1 install base was nearly 30 million as of the end of 2014. A lot of people think AMD meant 30 million shipped units between PS4 and X1 but Lisa Su, later clarified that they were talking about sales from their customers (Sony & MS) to end users (consumers).

So what AMD were actually saying is that cumulative sell through of PS4 and X1 was nearly 30m units before the end of 2014. We can say that ~18.5m units were PS4's and that an absolute maximum of 11.5m were Xbox One's.

Take Two have now released information that says sell through of PS4 and X1 has been very strong with a combined installed base of these platforms exceeding 29 million worldwide by the end of December according to IDG estimates.

So now we can narrow down that the install base is more than 29m but less than 30m assuming AMD and Take Two are using the same source.

Therefore we can say with some confidence that estimated sell through of PS4 will be around ~18.5m and estimated sell through of Xbox One will be between ~10.5m to ~11.5m.

Whilst not an exact figure for X1 it's as close as we'll get.

Sony announced a while back that they sold 18.5 to consumers up to jan 6(I think?) Why are we confident that this figure is correct now? People thought they were lying lol ?

 

[ZhugeEX]

Sony announced a while back that they sold 18.5 to consumers up to jan 6(I think?) Why are we confident that this figure is correct now? People thought they were lying lol ?

No..... I never said that.

What I said is we can come to an estimate for Xbox One sell through using the Sony 18.5m figure.

No one is suggesting 18.5m isn't an official number. It is an official number. In fact Sony said "Over 18.5m" which implies the number will be higher but obviously I don't know how much. Hence why I've just 18.5m.

 

[riskVSreward]

@AmyS
Mind me posting this as a new thread? I think this deserves some more exposure.

Cheers for that!

 

[Producer]

@AmyS
Mind me posting this as a new thread? I think this deserves some more exposure.

that went well. lol

 

[Occam]

Yes, I went about it the wrong way. You may make fun of me now.

 

[Nightengale]

Yes, I went about it the wrong way. You may make fun of me now.

It's not worth giving attention to articles like that, and frankly, you were being quite heavy handed on it despite the article.

 

[chadskin]

Wow:

AFP: #BREAKING Sony shares jump almost 10% on improved earnings outlook