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Study: Obese men and women have <1% chance of attaining a normal weight (mod edit OP)

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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I'm not entirely sure it is related to the thread.

But you'll likely have some people that want to promote it so they feel less guilty about being fat. And then you have people who think them being fat only affects them and therefore nobody else should judge them for it.

Maybe some people use it as an excuse get out of the responsibility of being healthy, but I think it's mostly about separating the problem out from the overall worth of the individual. Obesity is a problem, and maybe it's even a flaw, but everyone has flaws of some sort, it's just that obesity happens to be one of the few problems that are immediately apparent. Because of that, the non-acceptance usually is more focused on looks than an actual judgement of the problem of obesity.

Non-acceptance also often lacks the understanding of the difficulties surrounding obesity, and even when we try talk about that, people tend to do everything they can to trivialize it, some you don't see at nearly the same extent for every other type of problem people face. Just look at this very topic for evidence of that. You even have posts demising scientific studies as a whole, which would fit right in with the likes of anti vaxxers and climate change deniers.

And being fat does mostly only affect themselves, outside of extreme exceptions like Airplane flights. Even in medical costs they actually cost less than skinny people, since they usually don't live into their 90s when people start needing heavy medical attention damn near every day.
 
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Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
People are designed to graze, you're supposed eat a small something every couple of waking hours the problem is people eat the wrong things, they Oreos instead of some carrots, they eat chips instead of an Apple. Going hungry is never a good eating habit.

Total bollocks, right here.

I mean, obviously I take issue with the "people are designed" part, but besides that, the statement simply isn't true. Humans can easily operate for extended stretches without consuming food. Outside of people with some very specific goals, there is no benefit to eating small portions more frequently.
 
Drawing conclusions about cause and effect based solely off of epidemiological studies is a problem. They are a great place to start--something with which to form a hypothesis--but I think it's a pretty big problem that public health policy is based on them without a great deal of further research.
Check PMs. I rather not derail this thread.
 

Reebot

Member
Total bollocks, right here.

I mean, obviously I take issue with the "people are designed" part, but besides that, the statement simply isn't true. Humans can easily operate for extended stretches without consuming food. Outside of people with some very specific goals, there is no benefit to eating small portions more frequently.

You're right, and this thread demonstrates in part how much misinformation has permeated the broader understanding of human bodies.
 
Total bollocks, right here.

I mean, obviously I take issue with the "people are designed" part, but besides that, the statement simply isn't true. Humans can easily operate for extended stretches without consuming food. Outside of people with some very specific goals, there is no benefit to eating small portions more frequently.

Who said anything about operating with out food? Yes there is, with a constant drip of calories your metabolism changes from "hang on to calories" to "burn calories because your food source is constant."

But hey you don't have to take my word for just from any dietitian.
 
Just count calories and keep them below the right amount for your weight and exercise 20 minutes or more 3 times a week or more.

You will lose weight. It's not hard. It's hard to start but once it gets going it gets easier.
 

Reebot

Member
Who said anything about operating with out food? Yes there is, with a constant drip of calories your metabolism changes from "hang on to calories" to "burn calories because your food source is constant."

But hey you don't have to take my word for just from any dietitian.

That's not true. The frequency of eating does not appreciably affect (i.e. 100+ calories) your BMR or your TDEE.

No on should take your word or any dietitian's who claims otherwise since its false, and a review of the scientific body of literature will show this.
 

Wiktor

Member
Who said anything about operating with out food? Yes there is, with a constant drip of calories your metabolism changes from "hang on to calories" to "burn calories because your food source is constant."

But hey you don't have to take my word for just from any dietitian.

That's actually a myth. As long as you consume the same ammount of food daily it makes no real difference if you eat then in one-two sittigs or if you separate it into tiny portions and eat every few hours.
If your dietitian is telling you otherwise then it means he's not been keeping up with research for a long long time.
 
That's not true. The frequency of eating does not appreciably affect (i.e. 100+ calories) your BMR or your TDEE.

No on should take your word or any dietitian's who claims otherwise since its false, and a review of the scientific body of literature will show this.
Yeah, to say otherwise is straight up broscience.
 
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Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
Who said anything about operating with out food? Yes there is, with a constant drip of calories your metabolism changes from "hang on to calories" to "burn calories because your food source is constant."

But hey you don't have to take my word for just from any dietitian.

Yeah you guys are right i'm lookin through my notes and i remembered wrong she said "to graze constantly to prevent over eating at meals do to hunger"

OK, nevermind.
 

FStop7

Banned
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-s...attaining-a-healthy-body-weight-10394887.html

Pretty damning results of a comprehensive new study. That last part seems the most important: once an individual becomes obese it is extremely unlikely they'll be able to lose weight, so prevention is our best approach.

Mod Abuse:

Please note that the methodology of this study is notably flawed, and most importantly, the spin put on the data by the article is misleading.

The paper is looking at all obese people, not just those who are looking to lose weight. It assumes that most people want to lose weight, which is a fairly reasonable assumption in casual discussion, but not good enough for a robust study.

The paper is also looking at only a one year period, not a lifespan. This means that Obese men and women (regardless of effort) have an ~.5% chance of losing weight and reaching "normal" BMI weight classifications in any given year, according to these statistics.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=172182067&postcount=156

I literally thrive on this shit. Go on, keep telling me what I can't do.
 
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Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
I literally thrive on this shit. Go on, keep telling me what I can't do.

The data isn't saying anything of the sort, of course. It's just a collection of after-the-fact numbers.

Say 0.5% of a representative population failed to get down to a healthy weight and stay there. OK, that's fine. Nothing wrong there.

It's when you then take that statistic (based on shaky data at that) and extrapolate it to mean that the rest of the obese people on the planet have only a 0.5% *chance* to achieve a healthy weight and stay there, that's where I take issue. Probability and statistics are obviously not the same thing, and it bothers me when conclusions try to state otherwise.
 

FStop7

Banned
I stopped drinking Gatorade and eating baked goods and im down about 20 pounds since middle of May. Also eating salads with lean meat on it, no dressing or anything like that obviously and I went back to working out.
Curbing my appetite was one of the harder things but I have that under control now.

Honestly I thought it was hard at first but now not so much.

There's rarely enough emphasis on the importance of exercise in threads. It's critical.

LOL @ people exhorting the virtues of 'willpower'.

Let me tell you this: willpower is a resource just like any other. One has a finite amount of maximum willpower (also, default levels vary from person to person: some have higher, some have lower). It gets depleted and replenished just like any other resource. Some conditions cause a loss of willpower and/or slow down its replenishment. Stress causes loss of willpower and decreased replenishment. Fatigue (either physical or mental) causes willpower loss and decreased replenishment. Lack of money causes willpower loss and decreased replenishment.

Saying "lel they lack willpowerz!" is an utterly worthless statement.

It's GAF's permissible version of bootstraps.
 

RulkezX

Member
So it's using the BMI definition of obese?

I'm pretty sure that I'm ( lift 4 times a week, has ran multiple 50mile+ ultra marathons) obese on that scale, and will have failed to not be obese every time I've visited the doctors and had my weight taken.
 
So it's using the BMI definition of obese?

I'm pretty sure that I'm ( lift 4 times a week, has ran multiple 50mile+ ultra marathons) obese on that scale, and will have failed to not be obese every time I've visited the doctors and had my weight taken.

Yes, which is not representative of the general population.

BMI does not always work great individually, but collectively it is a pretty good indication.
 
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Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
So it's using the BMI definition of obese?

I'm pretty sure that I'm ( lift 4 times a week, has ran multiple 50mile+ ultra marathons) obese on that scale, and will have failed to not be obese every time I've visited the doctors and had my weight taken.

Turns out we don't have an obesity problem--we're just a nation of body builders and athletes, but some 60% of us somehow got caught up on a dreamer bulk that never ends.
 
Turns out we don't have an obesity problem--we're just a nation of body builders and athletes, but some 60% of us somehow got caught up on a dreamer bulk that never ends.

And actually BMI is pretty generous. There are a lot of skinny-fats out there that have a normal BMI. If it were possible for the statistics to use body fat percentage they would paint a much bleaker picture of reality
 
....bububu fat shamer gaf told me that all those lazy fat people need to do is eat less.

Easy peasy!

I don't think the study is that they can't lose weight, just that they won't. I have about 30lbs to go, and that's after losing about 49 already. I've been stalled for over a year now.
 
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Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
And actually BMI is pretty generous. There are a lot of skinny-fats out there that have a normal BMI. If it were possible for the statistics to use body fat percentage they would paint a much bleaker picture of reality

I totally agree. Given the ever-decreasing levels of (required) physical activity over the past 50+ years, I imagine people, in general, are packing a lot less muscle than they did when the formula was first developed.
 
The methods are extremely simple. Eat less calories.

That doesn't mean it's easy. Doing it (and maintaining it) is almost entirely dependent on discipline.

It's also an awareness and knowledge issue and I blame the industry for leading in the wrong direction. How can you blame the individual who grew up eating sugary cereal, fast food, and thinks sugar filled 'yogurt' is a healthy food?

I work at a grocery store right now, and very consistently people who are overweight will spend some 200 dollars on groceries with possibly not a single vegetable purchase.. Instead, it's all bread, cheese, meat along with sodas and frozen treats.

I don't disagree about eating less calories, but there is an incredible point to make about exactly what people are eating, and it's simply not healthy.

We need to stop considering vegetables as a side in an occasional meal and instead make them even a third of every meal.


I'd also like to make a point about people who use food stamps. They consistently buy the most unhealthy of foods, whether they're obese or not. What exactly that means, I'm not sure. Maybe they're more likely to indulge, or spend less time preparing meals? I don't want to pre-judge.... Why do you suppose that's the case?
 
I like how the study paints a picture of it being nearly impossible to lose weight.

When the human race has existed for thousands of years with an Obesity rate nowhere within lightyears of what we have.

Its called an utter shit diet. People eat horribly
 
It's also an awareness and knowledge issue and I blame the industry for leading in the wrong direction. How can you blame the individual who grew up eating sugary cereal, fast food, and thinks sugar filled 'yogurt' is a healthy food?

I work at a grocery store right now, and very consistently people who are overweight will spend some 200 dollars on groceries with possibly not a single vegetable purchase.. Instead, it's all bread, cheese, meat along with sodas and frozen treats.

I don't disagree about eating less calories, but there is an incredible point to make about exactly what people are eating, and it's simply not healthy.

We need to stop considering vegetables as a side in an occasional meal and instead make them even a third of every meal.


I'd also like to make a point about people who use food stamps. They consistently buy the most unhealthy of foods, whether they're obese or not. What exactly that means, I'm not sure. Maybe they're more likely to indulge, or spend less time preparing meals? I don't want to pre-judge.... Why do you suppose that's the case?

I agree. Having a large salad with a good helping of diced potatos, mushrooms and brussel sprouts can fill a person up far more than some slabs of meat. Less or equal caloric intake, far fuller feeling.

But I disagree on some parts. Adults may have grown up with poor habits, but they are very capable of learning and educating themselves on proper diet if they really want to. There is a point where personal responsibility takes over from the habits learned during adolescence, just like many things in life.
 
To all the people chiming in that they managed to lose weight, you realize that the study is about maintaining weight loss over several years, right? These are worthless comments even as anecdotal evidence if you don't mention how many years you've maintained the weight loss.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I like how the study paints a picture of it being nearly impossible to lose weight.

When the human race has existed for thousands of years with an Obesity rate nowhere within lightyears of what we have.

Its called an utter shit diet. People eat horribly

The study simply paints a picture that we should be far more proactive before someone becomes obese because it's unlikely to change anything after becoming obese. People didn't just magically randomly became lazy in this one particular country.

Childhood obesity in particular should be nearly considered child abuse.

To all the people chiming in that they managed to lose weight, you realize that the study is about maintaining weight loss over several years, right? These are worthless comments even as anecdotal evidence if you don't mention how many years you've maintained the weight loss.

Unfortentaly it's true. I don't want to discourage anyone, but I used to be just like them, before rebounding fairly badly. Just takes one rough stretch in life to give in, and be right back in the position where you're once again a long way away from being able to reach that goal. The plus side is that at my worst before ever losing weight I was a 35 BMI 8 years ago, got it down to 25 at the low, and only ever rebounded back to 30 and I do believe that you still have a good chance of catching yourself before you rebound all the way to your worst, as I sourced in a study earlier, but avoiding rebounds are not exactly easy.
 

grumble

Member
I agree. Having a large salad with a good helping of diced potatos, mushrooms and brussel sprouts can fill a person up far more than some slabs of meat. Less or equal caloric intake, far fuller feeling.

But I disagree on some parts. Adults may have grown up with poor habits, but they are very capable of learning and educating themselves on proper diet if they really want to. There is a point where personal responsibility takes over from the habits learned during adolescence, just like many things in life.

Yeah people do actually crave calories too though, like if your blood sugar crashes because you ate a plain salad for lunch or you get rapid gastric emptying once the water gets leached out of the salad (leaving about two shot glasses worth of material) and it leaves quickly. Protein is highly highly satiating. You can get that from plant sources or animal but it should be a key part of any long term diet. Protein makes it easy.
 

Zoned

Actively hates charity
I'm not gonna talk about statistics, but cause of this epidemic lies in the fact that it is so cheaper to buy junk (cookies, pasta, pizza) compared to healthy food. Tax these products heavily, and you might see something good.
 
Just picked up a book called, "A Big FAT Crisis" this week from the library. The research inside is always interesting to me because I lost 90 lbs and have kept it off for over a year so far.

It talks about the "Self Control" idea when it comes to food and points out that people relegate food intake to lower level functions in the brain. We aren't devoting our full attention to what we eat. We feel an urge and the lower levels of our consciousness start telling us what we should be doing to satisfy that urge. These lower levels are more easily influenced by product placement, price, sugar content, salt content, and many other factors that we would rationally leave out of meal planning if we were focused.

The thing is, food decisions are made about 200 times a day. Every bite you eat is a decision. Every time you think of a food and then don't eat, is a decision. Most of these happen with out us consciously thinking about it. Do you reach into a bag of cereal and think, "I'll stop in 22 more bites,"?
 
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Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
To all the people chiming in that they managed to lose weight, you realize that the study is about maintaining weight loss over several years, right? These are worthless comments even as anecdotal evidence if you don't mention how many years you've maintained the weight loss.

Well, establish your goal post first. How long is sufficient to weigh in?
 
I'm not gonna talk about statistics, but cause of this epidemic lies in the fact that it is so cheaper to buy junk (cookies, pasta, pizza) compared to healthy food. Tax these products heavily, and you might see something good.

Junk food is cheaper than fruits and vegetables?
 
Well, establish your goal post first. How long is sufficient to weigh in?

Pretty high up in the article said:
Each year obese men have a one in 12 chance of achieving five per cent weight loss, rising to one in 10 among women. But 53 per cent of people who had achieved this regained the weight within a year, and after five years, only 22 per cent had maintained their weight loss.

I don't have a threshold in mind. My point is just if you read the article and decided that it's invalidated without even bringing up how long you've sustained your weight loss, you've misunderstood the study in a pretty fundamental way.
 
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Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
I don't have a threshold in mind. My point is just if you read the article and decided that it's invalidated without even bringing up how long you've sustained your weight loss, you've misunderstood the study in a pretty fundamental way.

That's looking at five percent weight loss.

So, 15 pounds in a 300 pound individual. That's nothing. Look at the numbers a lot of people in here are posting. They are typically much, much higher (and probably a much, much higher percentage, too).

That's not to say I don't agree that the "how long?" statistic isn't also very important to take into consideration.
 
That's looking at five percent weight loss.

So, 15 pounds in a 300 pound individual. That's nothing. Look at the numbers a lot of people in here are posting. They are typically much, much higher (and probably a much, much higher percentage, too).

That's not to say I don't agree that the "how long?" statistic isn't also very important to take into consideration.

Speaking as someone who's lost 18% of my body weight this year, the only number I'm interested in is number of years. The information I've seen so far makes it seem like there's a statistical certainty I'll be back to where I was in 3-5 years.
 
...you've misunderstood the study in a pretty fundamental way.
That's pretty much the norm on GAF, or any other layman forum. Trying to critique an epidemiological study without any training in epidemiology is very difficult.

Laymen aren't expected to know the difference between a case-control study, a retrospective cohort, a prospective cohort, the strengths and weaknesses of each or why results were presented in the way they were. Laymen aren't expected to know how to test for internal validity or what determines generalizability.

What I get out from this paper is that from 2004 to 2014, less than 5% of the representative UK obese population achieved normal weight, regardless of how many had intentions to lose, regardless of how serious those intentions were. That's it. Nothing more. If I were a UK national public health policymaker I ought to be devastated from reading this. The study basically tells those folks, "whatever you guys were implementing on a nationwide level for the past 10 years, it really hasn't made a dent to achieving normal weight to this population over 5-10 years in the UK." This study has absolutely no bearing to the individual level.

Edit: Edited for further accuracy.
 

Reebot

Member
Speaking as someone who's lost 18% of my body weight this year, the only number I'm interested in is number of years. The information I've seen so far makes it seem like there's a statistical certainty I'll be back to where I was in 3-5 years.

You have control over that, not any statistic.
 

Heysoos

Member
I'm around 10 lbs away from being in the "normal" range after losing 75 lbs in the past ~14 months. I'm almost part of the 1% fam :')
 
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Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
That's pretty much the norm on GAF, or any other layman forum. Trying to critique an epidemiological study without any training in epidemiology is very difficult.

Laymen aren't expected to know the difference between a case-control study, a retrospective cohort, a prospective cohort, the strengths and weaknesses of each or why results were presented in the way they were. Laymen aren't expected to know how to test for internal validity or what determines generalizability.

What I get out from this paper is that from 2004 to 2014, less than 5% of the representative UK obese population achieved normal weight, regardless of how many had intentions to lose, regardless of how serious those intentions were. That's it. Nothing more. If I were a UK national public health policymaker I ought to be devastated from reading this. The study basically tells those folks, "whatever you guys were implementing on a nationwide level for the past 10 years, it really hasn't made a dent to achieving normal weight to this population over 5-10 years in the UK." This study has absolutely no bearing to the individual level.

Edit: Edited for further accuracy.

You didn't need to know any of the things you listed to come to that conclusion, which absolutely should have been the conclusion the researchers made (it may have been, I haven't seen the original study), and should not have led into an article reporting the observations as "Obese men have just a '1 in 210' chance of attaining a healthy body weight" as if these statistics have anything to do with probability for the individual.
 

GatorBait

Member
To all the people chiming in that they managed to lose weight, you realize that the study is about maintaining weight loss over several years, right? These are worthless comments even as anecdotal evidence if you don't mention how many years you've maintained the weight loss.

Lost 60 lbs. Have kept it off for 6 years. In fact, I keep getting more fit every year. I think I'm at a lower body fat percentage than I was over a decade ago when I was playing high school basketball 5-6 days per week. I find weight loss to be quite simple, to be honest.

I have an appointment in two weeks to get my body fat tested in a highly accurate "bod pod." I'm pretty curious to see the results.
 

SoulUnison

Banned
I stopped drinking soda and started doing all my own cooking and I've gone from 225 to 180 in about 6 months. Goal's 160, so I'm just about there.

I don't know if I started out as technically "obese," but it's nice to be in the 1% about *something.*

I don't see maintaining it to be a problem, either, as I don't miss sugary drinks and I much prefer the stuff I've learned to cook over fast food and prepackaged meals.
 

Zoned

Actively hates charity
Another good reason is that people who start working out and feel positive, lose their momentum in 2-3 weeks. They lack discipline. Discipline is very important in any field. Even if you eat shit on weekends at a family get together or a party, you should automatically try to compensate that in next few days by working out more or reducing diet.
 
Do you reach into a bag of cereal and think, "I'll stop in 22 more bites,"?

I do lol. I eat exactly the same amount of the same food every day (of course it changes as my weight progresses etc). Granted im a minority since i'm into bodybuilding, but it's pretty easy for me to just follow my diet. It's been years since i've eaten a pizza or drank a soda. I just dont feel the need to. I wish it was as easy to other people as it is for me, it must be horrible to feel out of control with your body and what you eat :(
 
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