Support NeoGAF

[nubbe]

20 million first year

 

[marc^o^]

3 millions by end of April is a lock.
3 millions during holidays is more than feasible if Mario Odyssey is good (it will be, most likely).

That would leave 1 million in the next 6 months. I don't get how they do these estimates.

 

[KawabataSan]

Am I misremembering, or wasn't SuperData's accuracy brought into question with the last thread about them and Switch sales?

Superdata use extrapolations. NPD use point of sale tracking.

 

[MegaManTrigger]

Well damn, that's pretty much their launch shipment. Will be interesting to see how the second month goes. Will the console be able to hold?

Given the momentum seems to continue in the spring/summer season with Mario Kart, Arms, Splat2n, I think it will stay steady.

What I wonder is the holiday season after a good chunk of people bought the Switch, especially with Mario and MAYBE Xenoblade chronicles.

 

[_PsiFire_]

3rd parties would be wise to not let this slide by like they did when the Wii hit its big numbers.

Develop some GOOD quality games and people will buy.

Or like the Wii, develop shit-tier titles to make a quick buck and that's all you'll make. People will look elsewhere on Nintendo platforms for their software money.

 

[mavericktopgun]

Love my Switch

 

[Jonneh3003]

Shame that Mario Kart 8 bundle doesn't seem to be worldwide, I imagine there will be one by November latest.

 

[Tom Nook Sawyer]

Superdata use extrapolations. NPD use point of sale tracking.

Right. So has anyone compared SuperData's past estimates to actual numbers to see if they're accurate?

 

[JCX]

3rd parties would be wise to not let this slide by like they did when the Wii hit its big numbers.

Develop some GOOD quality games and people will buy.

Or like the Wii, develop shit-tier title to make a quick buck and that's all you'll make and people will look elsewhere on Nintendo platforms for their software money.

I was thinking the other day how awful the ps360wii gen was. They were such different consoles, even between the HD twins.

Now Switch is at least HD so a good art style can cover graphical weakness for the average consumer (like Zelda). I think 3rd parties will have an easier time bringing things over compared to Wii.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

I wonder if that estimate is just going by Nintendo's currently announced 2017 lineup. If Pokemon gets announced for November, their forecast might jump up a good amount.

Even if it was just this year if after 1 1/2 months in none prime time they are floating at 2.4ish, it's hard for me to believe before holiday season the system isn't floating around 6 million or so.

 

[Ocarina_117]

DoA.... Or something?

 

[Principate]

Love my Switch

hahahahahahhahaha...

It truly is the next Vita.

 

[sinonobu]

hahahahahahhahaha...

It truly is the next Vita.

With Nintendo first party and third parties.... Which is awesome!

 

[MCN]

It truly is the next Vita.

Except people are buying it.

 

[frankie_baby]

DoA.... Or something?

I'd actually consider it pretty DOA if it only did superdata's 7.2m prediction this year

 

[MrS]

More than I expected. Good job Nintendo.

20 million first year

Not going to happen.

 

[Xater]

The start of this system is definitely above my expectations. Good for Nintendo. Let's hope they can keep the momentum going.

But for that they probably need to get new systems into stores.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

So it was true that they increased manufacturing a bit for the launch month.

 

[18-Volt]

I want to say "I hope this would change third parties minds" but looking at 3DS, now sitting on 65m units sold with zero western support, I remember that third parties want top notch tech, not super hardware sales.

 

[MegaManTrigger]

So it was true that they increased manufacturing a bit for the launch month.

Wasn't that also the case for people who didn't have joycon problems with the new batches vs. Day 1 buyers?

 

[Inuhanyou]

hopefully this means devs will support it with more games so i can pick one up when i'm planning to

 

[NOLA_Gaffer]

hopefully this means devs will support it with more games so i can pick one up when i'm planning to

We'll see how that pans out. The success of the Wii and it being subsequently ignored by third parties has kinda soured me on the whole "third parties on Nintendo hardware" thing.

It'll be nice to have, but I'm not exactly gonna hold my breath.

 

[clevbrowns94]

20 million first year

Not possible. Nintendo is not going to even make that many, right?

 

[JavyOO7]

Not bad. Hoping MK8 and ARMS keep the momentum going...

 

[schuelma]

That 7.2M number seems really really low

 

[And_Gignac]

The 7.2m figure seems super conservative. I expect 1.5 times that figure, at minimum.

I don't even buy the 2.4m figure. Probably higher.

I'd actually consider it pretty DOA if it only did superdata's 7.2m prediction this year

Thank god their assumptions are not better or more data based than your average GAF poster.

 

[Chill Penguin]

Well damn, that's pretty much their launch shipment. Will be interesting to see how the second month goes. Will the console be able to hold?

Oh yea, there are still lines for switch shipments, even 6 weeks later.

 

[Some Nobody]

I want to say "I hope this would change third parties minds" but looking at 3DS, now sitting on 65m units sold with zero western support, I remember that third parties want top notch tech, not super hardware sales.

There's miles between 3DS and Switch.

 

[darkside31337]

Isn't 7.2 not great for a system that is obstensibly their only system now? Do they just expect shipment problems for the year or the 3ds still having some legs?

 

[SinCityAssassin]

Wasn't that also the case for people who didn't have joycon problems with the new batches vs. Day 1 buyers?

I don't know what you're referring to, I was talking about the initial 2 million statement Kimishima gave during a nintendo financial meeting, which he had stated is not concrete if they find pre-release reception higher than what they currently allotted.

The joycons were just basic manufacturing errors.

Isn't 7.2 not great for a system that is obstensibly their only system now? Do they just expect shipment problems for the year or the 3ds still having some legs?

Seems like both, although apparently Nintendo wants 16 million manufactured by next March, I can see SuperData changing their forecast again mid summer if the Switch train doesn't get derailed.

 

[Peltz]

I'd actually consider it pretty DOA if it only did superdata's 7.2m prediction this year

Um no? Nintendo originally only wanted to make 8 million of these in 2017 until recently. Now they've increased production to an unspecified amount.

7.2 million would be a pretty decent first year.

 

[MegaManTrigger]

I don't know what you're referring to, I was talking about the initial 2 million statement Kimishima gave during a nintendo financial meeting, which he had stated is not concrete if they find pre-release reception higher than what they currently allotted.

The joycons were just basic manufacturing errors.

Oh, they were errors? Because I remember there were manufacturing variations between what people got Day 1 vs. the rest of the month that new shipments starting coming in. I thought they were proof of newly manufactured batches rather than existing shipments continuing to make their way out to retailers.

 

[marc^o^]

Isn't 7.2 not great for a system that is obstensibly their only system now? Do they just expect shipment problems for the year or the 3ds still having some legs?

Is it though? 3DS is still a cash cow.

 

[RedAssedApe]

gotta get numbers for non-1st party titles sold

 

[Jonneh3003]

Isn't 7.2 not great for a system that is obstensibly their only system now? Do they just expect shipment problems for the year or the 3ds still having some legs?

I wouldn't say so, it took Microsoft a year to ship 10 million Xbox Ones and Nintendo tend to release a lot more first party software than them. 7.2m should be a solid number for the year, it will probably do more.

 

[antonz]

Isn't 7.2 not great for a system that is obstensibly their only system now? Do they just expect shipment problems for the year or the 3ds still having some legs?

SuperData hasn't been overly excited at the Systems prospects. I mean their original forecast was 5 million for its first year. Even now they are remaining mostly cool on it but bumped it up a bit due to a good launch.

 

[maks]

Really hope we get great 3rd party title announcements at E3. I do like the indies that are on board but we need heavier hitters as well. Nintendos online platform concerns me most at this point. This can impact a 3rd parties willingness to commit so that needs to be great as well. Otherwise we'll end up with another Wii.

 

[DeuceGamer]

Nice start, especially when considering that it has been supply constrained in most (all?) countries since launch and this is a March launch.

Interested to see how Mario Kart 8 does and if they can get stock to catch up with demand. It could have done significantly more if there was stock readily available.

 

[th3sicknness]

Crazy part of this is that it has sold already 20 % of the Wii U total in one month lol (based on roughly 12m WiiUs sold)...

Few places are saying it will sell roughly 5-10 million in 2017? It is going to sell through roughly 75% of the Wii U 4 year total in roughly 8 to 9 months lol...

 

[Skyzard]

If only they had more titles prepared, might have had a reasonable chance to keep the momentum enough to convince third parties.

Hope they knock our socks off at e3.

 

[jariw]

But is 2.4M is sold, and 2M was produced in the first batch - this means that the second batch is already available for sale? Or was it 2.4M produced in the first batch?

 

[frankie_baby]

I wouldn't say so, it took Microsoft a year to ship 10 million Xbox Ones and Nintendo tend to release a lot more first party software than them. 7.2m should be a solid number for the year.

It should be edging half of that by the end of this month, it should be able to reach that prediction before the holidays even start

 

[Zedark]

Nice, as many expected the number to be (approximately). I think Switch can do better than 7.2 million, I would think 10-12 million this year should be possible if this train keeps rolling like it currently is.

 

[AdventureRacing]

Um no? Nintendo originally only wanted to make 8 million of these in 2017 until recently. Now they've increased production to an unspecified amount.

7.2 million would be a pretty decent first year.

After selling 2.4 million in the first month and still having the switch selling out in some places 7.2 million this year would be disappointing. Sales would really have o dry up for that to happen. Considering the SW Nintendo has coming this year they would have to be disappointed with that.

 

[Shiggy]

Does anyone still think Nintendo is under shipping to fuel some sort of scarcity?

Tomorrow they'll announce it was a limited product and that production has ended.

 

[HeisenbergWW62]

Awesome to hear, great to have Nintendo doing super well. I see te Switch hitting 10 mil by the end of the year

 

[FinalAres]

Does anyone still think Nintendo is under shipping to fuel some sort of scarcity?

I don't. I think Nintendo is under-shipping because it rushed the console's release.

 

[DR2K]

Switch is Vita if Sony got everything right with Vita hardware wise on top of actual support. So this is technically Vita's vindication

 

[BitStyle]

But is 2.4M is sold, and 2M was produced in the first batch - this means that the second batch is already available for sale? Or was it 2.4M produced in the first batch?

I'm pretty sure that they bumped the original 2 million shipment to include more after seeing the preorder numbers.

They've gotten restocks, but those won't be as plentiful as the original shipment

 

[udivision]

They need a Zelda every 2 or 3 months.