When Pokémon launchesMy God... When Splatoon 2 launches in Japan...
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SuperData: Nintendo sells 2.4m Switch consoles in 1st month; above original forecast
- Thread starter axisofweevils
- Start date
prediction for end of cy:
japan: 3m
eu: 4m
na: 5.5m
it would need to sell 1m worldwide between january and february to hit the wii u's sales in a year. it's super possible.
another way to look at it is that it would have to start underperforming the 3ds's first year to not outsell the wii u in a year.
japan: 3m
eu: 4m
na: 5.5m
it would need to sell 1m worldwide between january and february to hit the wii u's sales in a year. it's super possible.
another way to look at it is that it would have to start underperforming the 3ds's first year to not outsell the wii u in a year.
Yeah, April 27th will be interesting, since we might learn if and how much they increased their shipments forecast and their manufacturing. I personally think they are putting all their force behind manufacturing Switches and that's possibly why they stopped producing the NES mini and Famicom mini for the moment.
I wonder if it might be a better ïdea to stuff the channels in Japan more than in Europe, since it is basically guaranteed to sell massively what with Splatoon, and likely won't want to stop anytime soon after that.
I think there's a good chance we'll see better efforts from third parties this time around. Even though Zelda TP sold very well, an unconventional game in Wii Sports and its massive popularity among non-gamers was overshadowing everything else. Couple this with a mediocre E3 in 2007 and a downright dreadful one in 2008, both of which focused on more casual fare, the massive hardware differences between the Wii and PS360, and you've got several valid reasons for third parties not to put their best foot forward on the system.
The game currently driving the Switch's success is the most complex and fresh Zelda game since at least OoT, and it's also one of the most innovative open-world games to date. Unlike Wii Sports, BotW is very much in sync with the type of games third parties are pursuing right now. On the hardware side, Switch's featureset is very close to the other platforms, which makes porting a much simpler endeavor.
i doubt those items are using the same supply chains
nes mini was just made to bring the nintendo name back into households late last year, same as their ios apps. it was all a herald to Switch.
th3sicknness
Member
In my mind Christmas will match its launch numbers IMO or at least come close.
If they Sold 2.4 milion in MARCH ALONE and you factor in lets say an average Christmas of 2 million units sold. Then you are at 4.4 million right there.. Are you sayng it wouldn't be able to sell 3 million switches between April and November (8 months)?
2.4 March / 2 Million December would mean they would have to sell roughly 375k a month April - November to hit 7.4 Million... That seems very reasonable considering the PS4 / X1 sell 200k~ / 100k~ PER WEEK.
frankie_baby
Member
That makes a lot of sense, it seems nonsensical to stop manufacturing a hot product unless those manufacturing resources are being shifted to a hotter product
Gai Murakumo
Member
I hope they are really ramping up production. I have not been trying to actively hunt for a Switch but everytime I casually look around for them they are sold out everywhere. I wonder how long it will take till you can just walk in and buy one without much fuss.
Patrick Bateman
Member
Just found this graph:
Best Launch ever for Nintendo?
http://www.theverge.com/2017/4/13/15296874/nintendo-switch-zelda-sales-numbers-us
Best Launch ever for Nintendo?
http://www.theverge.com/2017/4/13/15296874/nintendo-switch-zelda-sales-numbers-us
Dark Cloud
Member
That would be great.
Graphics Horse
Member
That's a very low estimate considering the demand is clearly going to be above supply for at least a little while. Based on its reception Q4 should be a good step above Wii U's regular 2 million-ish.
They should be able to pull that off if the demand is there yes, they did with the Wii and ramped up from there.
They should be able to pull that off if the demand is there yes, they did with the Wii and ramped up from there.
The good thing about the Switch is that porting and development seems to be quicker and easier than it has been for any previous consoles for Nintendo (Wii and WIi U). If pubs and devs have been playing the wait and see game, this initial success might make them want to fast track ports of older titles/add ports of currently being developed titles to try and jump on the band wagon ASAP.
Hypothetically, we could see third parties start working on ports of existing games and releasing them before the year is out, and then day and date releases of future titles from next year onwards/
Hypothetically, we could see third parties start working on ports of existing games and releasing them before the year is out, and then day and date releases of future titles from next year onwards/
Yeah, that could be. My problem with that is that there is no reason to stop manufacturing those minis since they sell like hotcakes, unless there is a more pressing use of the manufacturing bandwidth appears (the Switch). The VC argument is weak I think, since it never stopped them from making it in the first place, and piracy is hardly a consideration that makes things worse.
thestopsign
Member
Super Data continues to show how bad they are at predictions. They really think the Switch is only going to sell another 4.8 million the rest of the year? It'll do close to that in Q4 alone.
Best launch was already confirmed by Nintendo rep, there's a separate thread floating around about the NPD numbers for Switch.Just found this graph:
Best Launch ever for Nintendo?
http://www.theverge.com/2017/4/13/15296874/nintendo-switch-zelda-sales-numbers-us
It really is impressive to see how large the number of units is: all the hot Nintendo items had less, some even considerably so. The tale of artificial scarcity should really be out to rest now: they shipped a lot, and sold a lot, contrary to many folks' expectations.
th3sicknness
Member
Sounds good but seriously, what happens when Mario Odysse, Pokemon Sun, Smash 4, Mario Kart and Splatoon got released?
These games will bring the Switch at Wii U numbers easily but I doubt that Pikmin, Kirby and Fire Emblem will ship that 100 k Switch per Week
You gotta remember the Switch still has Zelda for new customers plus DLC .. That title is going to have LEGS. It sold at a 100% attach rate which means any new buyer is going to buy this title for sure. Zelda affect should be there in year 1 easily... And people waiting who didnt get a Wii U will still have MK8 / SPLATOON / ARMS / Mario Odyessy in addition to a handful of indie games.
We are forgetting about FIFA, Minecraft, and Skyrim as well and possibly a RETRO game.
Sounds good but seriously, what happens when Mario Odysse, Pokemon Sun, Smash 4, Mario Kart and Splatoon got released?
These games will bring the Switch at Wii U numbers easily but I doubt that Pikmin, Kirby and Fire Emblem will ship that 100 k Switch per Week
The highlighted titles will be evergreen and will potentially sell devices for years to come. Add in to the mix say a 2018 Animal Crossing which has the potential to grab another huge audience.
edit - and a new gen pokemon will bring any people who have yet to upgrade from 3DS to Switch, just look at the hardware bumps the 2ds and 3ds got upon Sun and Moons release, that will likely be mirrored here.
Dark Cloud
Member
Sounds good but seriously, what happens when Mario Odysse, Pokemon Sun, Smash 4, Mario Kart and Splatoon got released?
These games will bring the Switch at Wii U numbers easily but I doubt that Pikmin, Kirby and Fire Emblem will ship that 100 k Switch per Week
It's a good thing Nintendo can make more games. I think you have to realize how holiday sales can be in the millions alone. Animal Crossing is a huge IP. There's Metroid which isn't big. The point of the Switch was to allow Nintendo to make more games, which would lead to more console sales and then get more third party support.
Waaaaaay too soon to say that.
JonnyDBrit
Member
Pretty much. People were making this sort of estimate in the NPD thread (*cough*) because it's the most obvious estimate there can be right now so long as you assume Europe sold higher than Japan.
Patrick Bateman
Member
In the article I linked they say that Zelda has an attach rate over 100% in the US. Meaning that people bought more than copy per person.
th3sicknness
Member
Ya it was attributed to people buying a limited edition to collect and possibly a standard to play.
I am just saying that people are worrying about titles being released in the first year when in reality ... If a person is making a decision mid year or holiday season Zelda is still going to be an option. Except by that time it will be Zelda + MK8 + ARMS + Splatoon 2 + Eshop games (shovel knight, sniperclips, and so on)
Yeah, or they walked out of the store with Zelda and realised when they were home that they forgot to buy an actual Switch.
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
Man i really screwed up my NPD prediction.
lwilliams3
Member
3.06m Wii Us were shipped that quarter, but if they'd all sold I doubt the next three quarters would've been so low.
Wow, those sales are brutal :/ What was the Wii U userbase in the US after its second Christmas? I suspect had the Switch will quickly pass that up soon.
Jonneh3003
Banned
What was yours?
Superdata is complete garbage. Worth waiting for proper numbers.
AyaisMUsikWhore
Member
This is good news for Nintendo. Im still holding out until it's exceptional but this is a good start
5.86 Million. Should be cleared before Q4 imo.
Hoho for breakfast
Member
Looks good so far. If they can keep the games coming it's starting to look like they're going to have a great start. I think it took the Wii U 4 months to sell 3.5 million? So the Switch needs a million or so more sales to match that and it's only been out a month and a half.
Mostly thanks to Zelda imo. What a game. I bought a Wii U copy then got a good deal on a Switch and so bought it for that too.
Mostly thanks to Zelda imo. What a game. I bought a Wii U copy then got a good deal on a Switch and so bought it for that too.
Dark Cloud
Member
And Mario Kart 8 DX releases in two weeks. It's going to speed by that 3.5 million number.
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
I think i went with 650K since im thinking theyll focus more on japan
staticneuron
Member
This is what I am curious about. How long did it take them to make the first 2 mill? I missed out on preorders so I am waiting patiently. I am just trying to figure out how bad of a wait this is going to be.
Crazyorloco
Member
If it keeps this up we'll beat the Wii U's total in a year. Great start.
7DollarHagane
Banned
The idea that there's still skepticism about this consoles future is insane. They would really have to screw this up to ruin the momentum they have going.
I'm happy to see Nintendo back in the game again and relevant, and doing well.
I'm happy to see Nintendo back in the game again and relevant, and doing well.
th3sicknness
Member
I dont see how the console doesnt sell at the bare min 200k a month until Christmas where it will prolly sell launch type numbers in December.
That also doesnt assume that maybe MAYBE at E3 they talk about sun setting 3ds development in 2018.
That also doesnt assume that maybe MAYBE at E3 they talk about sun setting 3ds development in 2018.
MK8 and Splatoon will probably keep the pace fast
I can only imagine what Splatwon is going to sell in JP, lawd
ShockingAlberto
Member
Having one of the best games of the last decade as your launch title will help.
But how soon they can follow that up with something that also incentivizes sales?
But how soon they can follow that up with something that also incentivizes sales?
I'd be surprised if it has not surpassed 3 million in Japan by August/September.
paragonpro
Banned
Shit good for them! Its a great system witha cool gimmick power be damned, and nintendo is still putting out top tier first party stuff
Welfare
Member
WII U 2012 LTD: 885K
WII U 2013 LTD: 2096K
WII U 2014 LTD: 3656K
WII U 2015 LTD: 4997K
WII U 2016 LTD: ~5500K
Switch will very likely sell more in its first 10 months than Wii U sold in 3 years. I personally am expecting it to sell over 4M this year alone. 2.1M should happen by August or September.