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[Alrus]

Having one of the best games of the last decade as your launch title will help.

But how soon they can follow that up with something that also incentivizes sales?

Well Mario Kart is coming in two weeks, that will surely sell well.

 

[DecoReturns]

Well Mario Kart is coming in two weeks, that will surely sell well.

I think its sarcasm

 

[AdventureRacing]

I'd be surprised if it has not surpassed 3 million in Japan by August/September.

That's a massively high bar to reach that early. If it really is at 3 million as early as august (or to a lesser extent September) than it's likely looking at 5 million plus for the year. I do think that 3 million for the year is conservative but if it matches your predictions than the switch is going to be the next DS basically. Can't see it happening.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Having one of the best games of the last decade as your launch title will help.

But how soon they can follow that up with something that also incentivizes sales?

It's called MK8DX which releases in two weeks.

I think its sarcasm

If it's sarcasm it's done poorly.

 

[Neff]

Switch is Vita if Sony got everything right with Vita hardware wise on top of actual support. So this is technically Vita's vindication

If Vita had Switch's features and games pedigree, sure.

Having one of the best games of the last decade as your launch title will help.

But how soon they can follow that up with something that also incentivizes sales?

Couple of weeks, maybe?

 

[Nosgotham]

When does Mario kart come out?

 

[theprodigy]

That's a massively high bar to reach that early. If it really is at 3 million as early as august (or to a lesser extent September) than it's likely looking at 5 million plus for the year. I do think that 3 million for the year is conservative but if it matches your predictions than basically the switch is going to be the next DS basically. Can't see it happening.

He thinks Splatoon will push Switch to 500k in a single week in Japan, just ignore him and do not reply back.

 

[Gleethor]

When does Mario kart come out?

2 weeks from today

 

[Heavy's Sandvich]

When does Mario kart come out?

28th April.

 

[noshten]

That's a massively high bar to reach that early. If it really is at 3 million as early as august (or to a lesser extent September) than it's likely looking at 5 million plus for the year. I do think that 3 million for the year is conservative but if it matches your predictions than the switch is going to be the next DS basically. Can't see it happening.

July/August is the summer vacation and Splatoon 2 launch. Splatoon 2 is going to move a massive amount of hardware but even before that I can see the Switch doing very well in terms of maintaining a steady amount of sales. We still lack information on how Arms will do and what other titles might release May to September but I'm looking at it from this perspective based on the current lineup.

Rest of April - 300K(MK8D)
May - 350K(Minecraft)
June - 300K(Arms)
July - 150K(pre Splatoon 2)
Rest of July - 500K(Splatoon 2 launch and following week)
August - 400K(Rest of summer vacation + possible other games)
September - 250K

He thinks Splatoon will push Switch to 500k in a single week in Japan, just ignore him and do not reply back.

Splatoon 2 launches Friday So technically it's a two week period.

 

[frankie_baby]

July/August is the summer vacation and Splatoon 2 launch. Splatoon 2 is going to move a massive amount of hardware but even before that I can see the Switch doing very well in terms of maintaining a steady amount of sales. We still lack information on how Arms will do and what other titles might release May to September but I'm looking at it from this perspective based on the current lineup.

Rest of April - 300K(MK8D)
May - 350K(Minecraft)
June - 300K(Arms)
July - 150K(pre Splatoon 2)
Rest of July - 500K(Splatoon 2 launch and following week)
August - 400K(Rest of summer vacation + possible other games)
September - 250K




Splatoon 2 launches Friday So technically it's a two week period.

From a potential point of view those figures could stand up but there just wont be enough stock for anything close

 

[Principate]

From a potential point of view those figures could stand up but there just wont be enough stock for anything close

I don't know about that, I mean Nintendo have already dramatically increased shipping forcast. I imagine now they'll be sending out as many as they can. Probably prime hardware loadouts when major software hits.

 

[JonnyKong]

There's no denying that the first year is going to be great for the console, but it's what's coming in 2018 that excites and concerns me.

Nintendo won't have a new 3d Zelda or Mario to fall back on, nor a new Pokemon or Smash (if those rumoured ports come out this year)

At the moment I assume 2018 will be mainly focusing on Retro's new game, maybe Pikmin 4, new Fire Emblem, maybe a new game from Next Level ( Luigi's Mansion 3), a new Mario and Luigi game?

Actually that sounds like an amazing line up I don't know what I'm talking about.

 

[schuelma]

There's no denying that the first year is going to be great for the console, but it's what's coming in 2018 that excites and concerns me.

Nintendo won't have a new 3d Zelda or Mario to fall back on, nor a new Pokemon or Smash (if those rumoured ports come out this year)

At the moment I assume 2018 will be mainly focusing on Retro's new game, maybe Pikmin 4, new Fire Emblem, maybe a new game from Next Level ( Luigi's Mansion 3), a new Mario and Luigi game?

Actually that sounds like an amazing line up I don't know what I'm talking about.

Animal Crossing

 

[jonno394]

There's no denying that the first year is going to be great for the console, but it's what's coming in 2018 that excites and concerns me.

Nintendo won't have a new 3d Zelda or Mario to fall back on, nor a new Pokemon or Smash (if those rumoured ports come out this year)

At the moment I assume 2018 will be mainly focusing on Retro's new game, maybe Pikmin 4, new Fire Emblem, maybe a new game from Next Level ( Luigi's Mansion 3), a new Mario and Luigi game?

Actually that sounds like an amazing line up I don't know what I'm talking about.

I'm counting on Animal Crossing to be a 2018 title. Get the mobile game out this year, drop the full Switch game next year with connection to mobile app BOOM. I envisage once the full game is out, the mobile app could act as a way to take your villager out, go to friends villages without having your switch, do stuff out and about with Happy home style stuff.

 

[lwilliams3]

WII U 2012 LTD: 885K
WII U 2013 LTD: 2096K
WII U 2014 LTD: 3656K
WII U 2015 LTD: 4997K
WII U 2016 LTD: ~5500K

Switch will very likely sell more in its first 10 months than Wii U sold in 3 years. I personally am expecting it to sell over 4M this year alone. 2.1M should happen by August or September.

Wow, it took the Wii U almost a year to sale another million after Christmas in the US. It will be a very little bar for the Switch to pass that in a next few months.

Thanks for posting those numbers.

 

[kIdMuScLe]

Dang... maybe by end of 2018 it should be close to enough to Xbox one lifetime sales right? If it keeps up this pace?

 

[SmoothRunningGun]

7.2 million for the year? Naw, looking closer to 10 million.

Can they make that many?

 

[Plum]

There's no denying that the first year is going to be great for the console, but it's what's coming in 2018 that excites and concerns me.

Nintendo won't have a new 3d Zelda or Mario to fall back on, nor a new Pokemon or Smash (if those rumoured ports come out this year)

At the moment I assume 2018 will be mainly focusing on Retro's new game, maybe Pikmin 4, new Fire Emblem, maybe a new game from Next Level ( Luigi's Mansion 3), a new Mario and Luigi game?

Actually that sounds like an amazing line up I don't know what I'm talking about.

Animal Crossing

Pokemon is still a yearly franchise. Unless for some reason that stops with the Switch we'll be getting one in 2018 for sure, most likely a Gen 4 remake.

EDIT: Ignore me, they skipped 2015.

 

[frankie_baby]

I don't know about that, I mean Nintendo have already dramatically increased shipping forcast. I imagine now they'll be sending out as many as they can. Probably prime hardware loadouts when major software hits.

He's predicting 650k for japan for july, based on current patterns that'd be a another global 2 million plus month, just cant see that happening even with dramatic increases

 

[jonno394]

Looking in to 2018 and beyond titles and cripes, I had no idea NSMB2 sold over 11m copies on 3DS, I thought people were disinterested in that game from it's reveal.

Wonder when we get a 2D Mario drop, Mario Maker next year and a NSMB/new 2d Mario in 2019? Even NSMBU sold 5m+

 

[JonnyKong]

I assume a Kirby game will eventually appear on the Switch once the 3DS stops hogging them all.

 

[Polygonal_Sprite]

There's no denying that the first year is going to be great for the console, but it's what's coming in 2018 that excites and concerns me.

Nintendo won't have a new 3d Zelda or Mario to fall back on, nor a new Pokemon or Smash (if those rumoured ports come out this year)

At the moment I assume 2018 will be mainly focusing on Retro's new game, maybe Pikmin 4, new Fire Emblem, maybe a new game from Next Level ( Luigi's Mansion 3), a new Mario and Luigi game?

Actually that sounds like an amazing line up I don't know what I'm talking about.

This is why I think Nintendo will keep especially Smash Bros and maybe even Pokémon for Spring 2018. With the way Switch is selling it really doesn't need much beyond four big games for 2017 (Zelda, MK8 Deluxe, Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey).

Also remember that there will be smaller project games throughout 2018 like the 2015/2016 3DS games we've seen. Not every game can be a major title with a big (for Nintendo) budget.

I think the big Switch games for 2018 will be Pokémon, Pikmin 4, Monster Hunter, Luigi's Mansion 3 and Retro Studios project.

 

[NinjaCoachZ]

There's no denying that the first year is going to be great for the console, but it's what's coming in 2018 that excites and concerns me.

Nintendo won't have a new 3d Zelda or Mario to fall back on, nor a new Pokemon or Smash (if those rumoured ports come out this year)

At the moment I assume 2018 will be mainly focusing on Retro's new game, maybe Pikmin 4, new Fire Emblem, maybe a new game from Next Level ( Luigi's Mansion 3), a new Mario and Luigi game?

Actually that sounds like an amazing line up I don't know what I'm talking about.

I'm thinking for 2018 we'll be getting Fire Emblem, Retro's game, Smash Bros., Animal Crossing, maybe Kirby, Mario and Sonic at the Seoul Winter Olympics (I know, I know, but it's inevitable), Pokemon Diamond/Pearl remake, and a couple of new IPs.

Throw in a Dragon Quest localization and a brand-new, ground-up Monster Hunter and it's already looking pretty sweet.

 

[LegendofLex]

There's no denying that the first year is going to be great for the console, but it's what's coming in 2018 that excites and concerns me.

Nintendo won't have a new 3d Zelda or Mario to fall back on, nor a new Pokemon or Smash (if those rumoured ports come out this year)

Animal Crossing
Mario Maker
Metroid
Pokemon Gen IV remake

Spoiler

Original 2D Mario that actually seems interesting again

 

[Graphics Horse]

There's no denying that the first year is going to be great for the console, but it's what's coming in 2018 that excites and concerns me.

Nintendo won't have a new 3d Zelda or Mario to fall back on, nor a new Pokemon or Smash (if those rumoured ports come out this year)

At the moment I assume 2018 will be mainly focusing on Retro's new game, maybe Pikmin 4, new Fire Emblem, maybe a new game from Next Level ( Luigi's Mansion 3), a new Mario and Luigi game?

Actually that sounds like an amazing line up I don't know what I'm talking about.

A new Mario platformer wouldn't be unexpected either, tbh, either Maker, 3D style, new style or a new new style, or 3D Maker?! They had a lot of titles across 3DS and Wii U.

 

[Kangi]

I assume a Kirby game will eventually appear on the Switch once the 3DS stops hogging them all.

HAL's always seemed pretty allergic to non-handheld Kirby titles, at least since the N64 days. I hope Switch is close enough to a handheld to get them to budge for more than one game.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Hmm

So we're predicting 2018 games hmmm...I like

Let's see I think

-Fire Emblem Warriors (duh)
-Animal Crossing
-Retros game (could be 2017, but doubt it)
-Next Level Games game (hoping Luigis Mansion 3)
-Super Mario Maker Deluxe/2?
-Pokémon
-Monster Hunter
-Metroid Prime 4
-Pikmin 4
-2 new IPs from Nintendo
-2 big exclusives from Japan or the west

I don't see 2D Mario yet. I think they'll get Super Mario Maker out first.

 

[frankie_baby]

I'm thinking for 2018 we'll be getting Fire Emblem, Retro's game, Smash Bros., Animal Crossing, maybe Kirby, Mario and Sonic at the Seoul Winter Olympics (I know, I know, but it's inevitable), Pokemon Diamond/Pearl remake, and a couple of new IPs.

Throw in a Dragon Quest localization and a brand-new, ground-up Monster Hunter and it's already looking pretty sweet.

I'd imagine mario & sonic at seoul would probably be this year if anything

 

[Alchemy]

Happy to see these numbers, really hoping we get some great games on the system. The holidays around Mario should absolutely be insane.

 

[Dehnus]

The more it sells the more chance we get to see this on a portable:

OH please not another Souls game, I could use another From Software title for a change. Like Metal Wolf Chaos or Otogi. From Software did so much more than just the Souls games, they've been milked dry by now.

 

[Lights and Waves]

So happy that the Switch is a smash!

 

[panama chief]

where are the crow eaters?

 

[NinjaCoachZ]

I'd imagine mario & sonic at seoul would probably be this year if anything

They used to launch the year before the Olympics, but Rio threw that off. It actually came out the year of the actual Rio olympics, so I'm guessing games going forth will do the same.

A new Mario platformer wouldn't be unexpected either, tbh, either Maker, 3D style, new style or a new new style, or 3D Maker?! They had a lot of titles across 3DS and Wii U.

I think they might give 2D Mario a break in favour of Mario Maker becoming a more regular series. From what I heard, there were enough new levels in 3DS Mario Maker that it practically was a new 2D Mario game in itself. Maker just seems way more exciting a prospect and kills two birds with one stone.

 

[Blastoise]

very very healthy

 

[jonno394]

where are the crow eaters?

Waiting for the sales to drop off next month or the month after in preparation of quoting you and saying "I told you so".

I think they might give 2D Mario a break in favour of Mario Maker becoming a more regular series. From what I heard, there were enough new levels in 3DS Mario Maker that it practically was a new 2D Mario game in itself. Maker just seems way more exciting a prospect and kills two birds with one stone.

Nah, can't see it happening. NSMBU sold 5-6m and NSMB2 over 11 m, whereas Maker sold less than 4m on Wii U and just over 2m on 3DS so far. A dedicated 2D Mario won't be put on ice.

 

[meirl]

How reliable is this Data?

 

[Ushay]

Amazing, glad I joined this ship

Keep those games coming Nintendo!

 

[Neff]

where are the crow eaters?

Twiddling their thumbs waiting for Switch 2.

 

[Brhoom]

Slaytendo keeps on slaying!!!

 

[frankie_baby]

They used to launch the year before the Olympics, but Rio threw that off. It actually came out the year of the actual Rio olympics, so I'm guessing games going forth will do the same.



I think they might give 2D Mario a break in favour of Mario Maker becoming a more regular series. From what I heard, there were enough new levels in 3DS Mario Maker that it practically was a new 2D Mario game in itself. Maker just seems way more exciting a prospect and kills two birds with one stone.

I suspect that rio launching later was more of a blip but also the winter Olympics start in February so i can see them being keen to get it out before Christmas

 

[Instro]

It'll clear 5 million, and if the stars align 7 million. But there is no way in hell it clears anything past that with the library they are showing now until the end of the year.
If they can bring out Animal Crossing and Pokémon by March of next year, we could see 10. That's the ONLY way. People saying it'll beat Wii U lifetime by the end of this are smoking that really good stuff.

For comparison, the 3DS with all its troubles basically managed that feat. The Switch lineup is certainly better than what the 3DS's was, so I don't think it would be a shocker if the Switch sold through 13 million by the end of December.

 

[Brhoom]

I know I'm not the only one who noticed that the general public is here for the Switch, but there are no games that carters to them but 1 2 switch.

Animal Crossing
Tomodachi Life
Pokemon
GTAV
Minecraft


Release these and you won't be able to find a Switch in any store

Spoiler

as if they are in stock now lol

 

[10k]

Whew here we go!

 

[SinCityAssassin]

It'll clear 5 million, and if the stars align 7 million. But there is no way in hell it clears anything past that with the library they are showing now until the end of the year.
If they can bring out Animal Crossing and Pokémon by March of next year, we could see 10. That's the ONLY way. People saying it'll beat Wii U lifetime by the end of this are smoking that really good stuff.

This is an exaggeration, but Splatoon 2 will get them through 7 million in Japan alone.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Sets them up nicely for No More Heroes 3 in 2019 which will sell 5.4m copies opening weekend.

That's in Japan. And then 13.6m in NA/EU.

 

[NinjaCoachZ]

Waiting for the sales to drop off next month or the month after in preparation of quoting you and saying "I told you so".




Nah, can't see it happening. NSMBU sold 5-6m and NSMB2 over 11 m, whereas Maker sold less than 4m on Wii U and just over 2m on 3DS so far. A dedicated 2D Mario won't be put on ice.

Fair nuff. I get what you mean.

Though it probably helps that the NSMB games were on shelves and bundled a lot longer than the Makers, which came out pretty late in their respective system's life cycles. Plus Maker on 3DS being somewhat gimped in regards to sharing probably limited the amount of potential double-dippers.

 

[frankie_baby]

It'll clear 5 million, and if the stars align 7 million. But there is no way in hell it clears anything past that with the library they are showing now until the end of the year.
If they can bring out Animal Crossing and Pokémon by March of next year, we could see 10. That's the ONLY way. People saying it'll beat Wii U lifetime by the end of this are smoking that really good stuff.

Zelda - basically best game ever made
Mario kart - the public at large wont care maybe even wont know its a port, remind me again how the wii game sold
Splatoon2 - nintendo buys japan
Mario odyssey - its mario nuff said

So what exactly is wrong with the line up?

 

[Plum]

Zelda - basically best game ever made
Mario kart - the public at large wont care maybe even wont know its a port, remind me again how the wii game sold
Splatoon2 - nintendo buys japan
Mario odyssey - its mario nuff said

So what exactly is wrong with the line up?

A port, a port, a slightly enhanced port and Mario '06? Pfffttt, what crap!

Nah but seriously it's a damn good lineup. Don't forget Skyrim and Fifa which, being portable, both have the potential to be pretty damn big if they aren't terrible ports. There's also E3 which will most likely have a surprise or two from first or third parties.

 

[Monumma]

Sets them up nicely for No More Heroes 3 in 2019 which will sell 5.4m copies opening weekend.

That's in Japan. And then 13.6m in NA/EU.

I want to live in this world.