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[Zynx]

One thing to consider when comparing the number of million sellers over the life of the platform is the amount of years involved.

NES (Famicom, actually, if we're talking "Japan"), especially, lasted many more years, because the 'competing new platform force migration to new generation' didn't kick in for years, and that'll be especially hard to match. And million sellers per year is a better metric for gauging the power of a platform, than sellers over lifetime.

 

[sc0la]

Can you break those into Game (<1mil) and Non-Game (>1mil) categories? I get them mixed up when they are all squashed together in one list

please

ty

 

[Neomoto]

Great thread and interesting analysis. I'm glad many games are becoming the best selling entries in their franchise, that's awesome. The DS is my favorite handheld and because of this great succes I can look forward to a incredible list of excellent games I don't see DS slowing down anytime soon and I hope that Wii will get the same third party support the DS is getting now (in terms of quality of course).

 

[the thoroughbred]

Nintendo? I thought they made playing cards or something

Ding, ding, ding, we have a winner.


Although this uncannily sounds like something Anihawk would have come up with, back when he used to be rather sarcastic to boot.

 

[C.T.]

I wouldn't count Pokemon as one SKU.

 

[Galactic Fork]

Square Enix takes up a chunk of that remaining 27% marketshare, then when you divide what's left among hundreds of developers the rest of the 3rd parties are really just fighting for scraps, I agree, this is what they have to look forward to if they support the Wii and help it become dominant, that's why its in their own best interests to support the PS3 & 360 and make them become viable platforms

There was a reason he compared the sales of the games with other games in the series.

 

[AniHawk]

Square Enix takes up a chunk of that remaining 27% marketshare, then when you divide what's left among hundreds of developers the rest of the 3rd parties are really just fighting for scraps, I agree, this is what they have to look forward to if they support the Wii and help it become dominant, that's why its in their own best interests to support the PS3 & 360 and make them become viable platforms

Have you ever said anything that makes sense?

 

[Parl]

Square Enix takes up a chunk of that remaining 27% marketshare, then when you divide what's left among hundreds of developers the rest of the 3rd parties are really just fighting for scraps, I agree, this is what they have to look forward to if they support the Wii and help it become dominant, that's why its in their own best interests to support the PS3 & 360 and make them become viable platforms

I can see why quick and dirty 3rd and 4th string developed games should sell well on Wii when they don't sell well on 360 or PS3, or PS2, or DS.

I can see why well-budgeted, ground-up games will sell no more than the aforementioned quick and dirty games on Wii.

 

[Jokeropia]

Have you ever said anything that makes sense?

No, I'd say he's one of if not the most consistently stupid poster on GAF.

 

[Parl]

No, I'd say he's one of if not the most consistently stupid poster on GAF.

But he has "Link" in his name, which possibly could mean he's a Zelda fan, and that he's parodying in an not so obvious way. But "Link" could be there for any reason really.

 

[thestopsign]

Here are a few potential million sellers.

Yoshi's Island DS (March, 2007)
Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (June, 2007)
Pokemon Mysterious Dungeon 2 (September, 2007)
Tamagotchi 3 (September, 2007)
A.S.H. (October, 2007)
Final Fantasy Tactics Advance 2 (October, 2007)
Final Fantasy IV (2007)
Dragon Quest IV (2007)
Professor Layton 2 (December, 2007)
Dragon Quest XI: Protectors of the Sky (2007-2008)
Diddy Kong Racing DS (TBA)
Mario Party DS (TBA)

It seems like Nintendo is either a.) hiding a lot of stuff from us or b.) letting the 3rd parties take over from here. They haven't announced jack shit for this holiday season besides Pokemon Mysterious Dungeon 2 and ASH. It seems sort of suspicious to me. They did let the GBA die out in the last few years of it's life, but not this early. Hopefully we some good new stuff for the DS, because they have nothing announced for 2008 that appeals to the Japanese market as far as I'm concerned. Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[Vic]

DS games can be produced, announced, promoted and shipped in a very short time line. They can announce the 2008 games in 2008 unlike home consoles where it takes a lot of time to do all this stuff. And let's not forget that this holiday season, the DS game list is already packed.

 

[RevenantKioku]

/me looks at stack of DS and Wii games

OH NOES I AM RUINING THE GAMING!

 

[Fuzzy]

But he has "Link" in his name, which possibly could mean he's a Zelda fan, and that he's parodying in an not so obvious way. But "Link" could be there for any reason really.

Maybe he's the missing link and only has the brain capacity of a bright ape? I think we should cut him some slack.

 

[jarrod]

Square Enix takes up a chunk of that remaining 27% marketshare, then when you divide what's left among hundreds of developers the rest of the 3rd parties are really just fighting for scraps, I agree, this is what they have to look forward to if they support the Wii and help it become dominant, that's why its in their own best interests to support the PS3 & 360 and make them become viable platforms

It's like that on all platforms... the same case can be made for SonyEA/Rockstar eating up the vast majority of PSP's market worldwide. The top dogs always take the largest chunk out of it, no matter the platform. The Nintendo machines may have a stronger 1st party competitor generally, but you also generally get a weaker competitive performance from most of the big western companies (EA/Activision/Ubisoft/Take2) and even some of the bigger JP guys to an extent (Namco/Bandai/Konami).

For companies like Atlus, MMV or SNK, it's going to be "scraps" no matter where you go.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Yoshi's Island DS (March, 2007) - VERY HARD
Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (June, 2007) - STILL SOME CHANCES
Pokemon Mysterious Dungeon 2 (September, 2007) - YES, COMBINED SALES
Tamagotchi 3 (September, 2007) - VERY HARD
A.S.H. (October, 2007) - NO CHANCES
Final Fantasy Tactics Advance 2 (October, 2007) - A LITTLE DIFFICULT
Final Fantasy IV (2007) - MAYBE
Dragon Quest IV (2007) - MAYBE
Professor Layton 2 (December, 2007) - MAYBE
Dragon Quest XI: Protectors of the Sky (2007-2008) - BEST DQ SALES EVER
Diddy Kong Racing DS (TBA) - ABSOLUTELY NOT
Mario Party DS (TBA) - VERY HARD

IMO



Nintendo seems like more focused on Wii this winter (Mario Galaxy and Smash Bros above all), giving 3rd party a chance to sell well, even if #1 top seller game is already known: DQ9
But they also have to introduce us their winter line-up, probably they will show something around TGS time

 

[thestopsign]

Yoshi's Island DS (March, 2007) - VERY HARD
Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (June, 2007) - STILL SOME CHANCES
Pokemon Mysterious Dungeon 2 (September, 2007) - YES, COMBINED SALES
Tamagotchi 3 (September, 2007) - VERY HARD
A.S.H. (October, 2007) - NO CHANCES
Final Fantasy Tactics Advance 2 (October, 2007) - A LITTLE DIFFICULT
Final Fantasy IV (2007) - MAYBE
Dragon Quest IV (2007) - MAYBE
Professor Layton 2 (December, 2007) - MAYBE
Dragon Quest XI: Protectors of the Sky (2007-2008) - BEST DQ SALES EVER
Diddy Kong Racing DS (TBA) - ABSOLUTELY NOT
Mario Party DS (TBA) - VERY HARD

IMO



Nintendo seems like more focused on Wii this winter (Mario Galaxy and Smash Bros above all), giving 3rd party a chance to sell well, even if #1 top seller game is already known: DQ9
But they also have to introduce us their winter line-up, probably they will show something around TGS time

I think your writing of Diddy Kong Racing way to fast. The original did around 900k on the N64 at the time of it's release, so I don't see why it can't get close to that. I'll agree with you on ASH. I think Yoshi's Island is almost a shoe-in to make it to a million also. Famitsu was tracking it really low compared to Media-Create, there was almost a 150k difference.

Just make this clear, this is only a potential million seller list.

 

[ethelred]

I wouldn't count Pokemon as one SKU.

I would. And more importantly, Famitsu would (and does!).

My view is if you have a dual-SKU game -- two versions for essentially the same game -- and they ship together at the same time, they should be counted together. If one version is made later and released later, that should be counted separately.

Here are a few potential million sellers.

Yoshi's Island DS (March, 2007)
Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (June, 2007)
Pokemon Mysterious Dungeon 2 (September, 2007)
Tamagotchi 3 (September, 2007)
A.S.H. (October, 2007)
Final Fantasy Tactics Advance 2 (October, 2007)
Final Fantasy IV (2007)
Dragon Quest IV (2007)
Professor Layton 2 (December, 2007)
Dragon Quest XI: Protectors of the Sky (2007-2008)
Diddy Kong Racing DS (TBA)
Mario Party DS (TBA)

Sorry, but most of those really don't have a chance. PMD2 almost certainly will go platinum, I agree; Professor Layton has a reasonable shot (with how the original is still selling...) seeing as it'll have a lot more hype and marketing going for it than the first one did. And L5 still has the ability to do Best Price rereleases at some point. The FF and DQ remakes all have a shot (though are definitely not guaranteed). Mario Party is possible, though I don't see the DS game performing as well as the Wii game.

The others, though... no chance.

It seems sort of suspicious to me. They did let the GBA die out in the last few years of it's life, but not this early. Hopefully we some good new stuff for the DS, because they have nothing announced for 2008 that appeals to the Japanese market as far as I'm concerned. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Nintendo's gotten stuck in this rut where they announce their DS lineup in very short term bursts, whenever they hold one of their retail meetings every few months.

I think your writing of Diddy Kong Racing way to fast. The original did around 900k on the N64 at the time of it's release

Not in Japan it didn't. I believe you're thinking of Donkey Kong 64.

 

[thestopsign]

Not in Japan it didn't. I believe you're thinking of Donkey Kong 64.

Hmmm... you know what, I got the number from VG Charts way back. Thats why it was inflated so high. :lol

 

[jj984jj]

Nintendo's gotten stuck in this rut where they announce their DS lineup in very short term bursts, whenever they hold one of their retail meetings every few months.

Exactly, Ouendan 2 came out very soon after it was announced, Nintendo has a horrible model this year when it comes to announcing DS games.

 

[RobertM]

Common Sense Training They needed it.

 

[STG!]

Great thread and analysis work ethelred, it was a pleasure to read.

What surprised me the most was quantity of games Nintendo has published and appeared on the list in comparison to third parties. I didn't realize it was that many, incredible.

 

[CANLI]

Come on, YI 2 DS is at ~ 900 k and is still selling ~ 10 k per week. It'll be definitely a million seller (in 3-4 months).

Cooking Navi is at ~ 900 k too. It's still selling 4-5k ~ So, it will definitely be one MS too.

Zelda will pass the 1.2 M sales for sure.

I wonder when Diddy Kong Racing will be released. There's no way it will be a MSeller because there are too few enhancements from the N64 version and let Mario Kart DS alone. MK need to sell more and more. So, there's no need for a Jap release of Diddy Kong Racing (until 2008) .

For A.S.H., more and more (unfortunately), I'm thinking it will be a deception for me. Don't know why but I'm feeling it (let's think at Tales of Tempest sales).

Layton 1 is still selling good. It can be a million seller if the second is great. It depends of the trilogy but 700k is still great for Level5.

Games like Tama3 and Pokemon Dongeon 2 needed to be released on november to be millionsellers but let some place for DQ IX which will sell between 4-5 Millions in its lifetime.

4th versions of FF and DQ: If one of them can be a million seller, I'd bet for FF. The FFTA2 can sell 400-500k. No more.

Mario Party DS: it depends how the game is attracting (use of touch screens, multiplayer party games, MINI GAMES, WFC,..) if all of these are ok, it will definitely sell and don't forget, it will be the first MP game on DS. LIke the first GC and Wii versions, this game's sales will be great.

I'm still hoping for Observation Training to be a million seller. The game's really addicting. I love it.

 

[super funk]

Really nice job on the analysis there, ethelred. I like how you compared game sales within series.

Regarding the number of million sellers, I think DS can come close to 30, if not over. There are a few games that are close and will get there eventually like Yoshis Island, the FF and DQ remakes that are coming have a good chance, big name franchises like DQ9 and Pokemon third version will obviously, and thats not even taking into account any suprises Nintendo has in store.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Maybe Megaman Starforce 2 will have good sales, maybe not a million seller.
This time Capcom was wise and announced only 2 versions instead of last year 3 versions and if it has legs as the predecessor, 7-800k might be affordable.

 

[jarrod]

Mario Party Advance tanked btw... I just don't think party games translate as well to handhelds. I'd be shocked if the DS game passed 500k, much less a mllion tbh.

 

[ksamedi]

Thanks for answering my question guys.

 

[Trurl]

You should probably buy it, since you didn't have the common sense to realize that it would sell that much.

Oh snap!

 

[Father_Brain]

Mario Party Advance tanked btw... I just don't think party games translate as well to handhelds. I'd be shocked if the DS game passed 500k, much less a mllion tbh.

Keep in mind that it was primarily a single-player game, which was a pretty bizarre choice for the series.

 

[jarrod]

Keep in mind that it was primarily a single-player game, which was a pretty bizarre choice for the series.

Sure, WiFi might save Mario Party DS.... but I think this is more of social game where everyone gathers around the same screen. I doubt it sells as well as MP8 honestly.

 

[Dalthien]

Sure, WiFi might save Mario Party DS.... but I think this is more of social game where everyone gathers around the same screen. I doubt it sells as well as MP8 honestly.

I doubt it as well. I think this is more a way of filling in the sales which were lost due to the transition year between Gamecube and Wii, in which there was no Mario Party last Christmas. And with no Mario Party being released again this coming Christmas, the DS version fills in the space for the series. Then they are set to get Mario Party 9 back on a regular holiday schedule again next year.

Plus, I'm not sure how accurate this news is, but I've seen it mentioned in a few places that Nintendo is bringing the development of Mario Party DS in-house instead of using Hudson. So this may be an opportunity for them to test the waters and see how well the process works with them bringing the series in-house. Who knows, they may be contemplating the idea of bringing the entire franchise in-house down the road, and this may be an opportunity to explore that concept a bit.

 

[BishopLamont]

I would. And more importantly, Famitsu would (and does!).

My view is if you have a dual-SKU game -- two versions for essentially the same game -- and they ship together at the same time, they should be counted together. If one version is made later and released later, that should be counted separately.



Sorry, but most of those really don't have a chance. PMD2 almost certainly will go platinum, I agree; Professor Layton has a reasonable shot (with how the original is still selling...) seeing as it'll have a lot more hype and marketing going for it than the first one did. And L5 still has the ability to do Best Price rereleases at some point. The FF and DQ remakes all have a shot (though are definitely not guaranteed). Mario Party is possible, though I don't see the DS game performing as well as the Wii game.

The others, though... no chance.



Nintendo's gotten stuck in this rut where they announce their DS lineup in very short term bursts, whenever they hold one of their retail meetings every few months.



Not in Japan it didn't. I believe you're thinking of Donkey Kong 64.

How can Yoshi's Island not reach a million? Love & Berry and Kirby reached it by not even appearing on the charts while Yoshi's Island is still on it and it's a Nintendo title which has tremendous legs. Tamagotchi 3 definitely has a chance considering the userbase will be even higher and it's very casual friendly. It depends on if it sells like the first or second game. I agree on the rest though.

 

[apujanata]

Square Enix takes up a chunk of that remaining 27% marketshare, then when you divide what's left among hundreds of developers the rest of the 3rd parties are really just fighting for scraps, I agree, this is what they have to look forward to if they support the Wii and help it become dominant, that's why its in their own best interests to support the PS3 & 360 and make them become viable platforms

Nice work, ethelred. Really an eye opener. We should always refer peopel to this topic whenever we see someone posted a nonsensical "DS killed gaming" or "Third party is not successfull on DS" post.

The only thing I need to do is apologize for bringing Link316 into NeoGAF. I killed him in gameFAQs, and unfortunately, he is resurrected by some evil master (Ganon ?), and because of the mis-coordination of the abovementioned evil master, he didn't show up on gameFAQs as he was supposed to, but show up here instead.

I apologize to Anihawk, CVXFREAK, Jonnyram, and all other member of NeoGAF of this incident. Maybe Dragona or some other administrator would like to rectify/solve this issue ?

How can Yoshi's Island not reach a million? Love & Berry and Kirby reached it by not even appearing on the charts while Yoshi's Island is still on it and it's a Nintendo title which has tremendous legs.

Yoshi Island last showing on Famitsu is on July 22, with 7050 sales / week. 2 weeks before it, it's weekly sales are 7513. If they managed to maintain the 7000/week rate, it will take them at least 27 weeks to get another 190K sales, to get 1 Million sales. I think the possibilities is very small (<10%) for it to be able to reach 1 Million sales. Probably it will stop at 900-950K LTD.

For illustration, FF3 sales for 26 week (2007 1st Half semester) is only 68K, or on average only 2.6K/week.

 

[Jiggy]

It's probably kind of safe to assume million-seller status for the DQVI remake at least, right? Since it's never had a remake before, it should at least hit that FFIII level, I would think. So one more to pencil in as a hypothetical.

 

[xir]

how did super mario bros. dx for the gbc do? I know it broke a million worldwide, at least....

 

[Mgoblue201]

Portable systems have never been an arena for lucrative across the board software sales anyway. I think that's true for the PSP, DS, GBA, all of them. Nintendo seems to be the only one to garner blockbuster sales out of it, but I think that's because they take it the most serious (it being their own portable after all). It's the main system for the likes of Pokemon, Brain Training, and Nintendogs. Nintendo will give it the first 2D Mario sidescroller in fifteen years. They'll release major sequels to all of their huge games and market them as significant installments. I think DQIX will be one of the few examples of a third party following suit, and it'll pay off huge for them. Otherwise I think people see portables as secondary systems. The attach rates seem to confirm that.

 

[ethelred]

It's probably kind of safe to assume million-seller status for the DQVI remake at least, right? Since it's never had a remake before, it should at least hit that FFIII level, I would think. So one more to pencil in as a hypothetical.

Oh, I think Dragon Quest VI is almost guaranteed, personally. FFIV/DQIV/DQV have really good shots, but none of them are sure things... DQVI will be huge, though.

If I had to guess, the definite million-sellers I see are: Kirby, Love & Berry, Zelda, DQIX, DQVI, Pokemon Mystery Dungeon 2... and beyond that, it's up in the air. More English Training and Flash Focus are very good candidates, as are the aforementioned FF/DQ games. NSMB2 will, if they make it. I wouldn't be shocked if Professor Layton 2 manages it.

The problem is we really have no clue what's coming to the DS in 2008 aside from a few Square Enix games (and even then, I imagine they've got a few surprises for TGS). No clue what Nintendo is working on past 2007.

Nintendo seems to be the only one to garner blockbuster sales out of it, but I think that's because they take it the most serious (it being their own portable after all). It's the main system for the likes of Pokemon, Brain Training, and Nintendogs. Nintendo will give it the first 2D Mario sidescroller in fifteen years. They'll release major sequels to all of their huge games and market them as significant installments.

For the most part I agree, but the DS has been changing that mentality for a lot of publishers and developers in Japan (which I think is a good thing). Square Enix is the first, obviously -- and they have gotten blockbuster sales as a result (the performance of their games to date is nothing to scoff at). Namco moving Tales to the DS is pretty big -- if they follow-through with that seriously, they'll get some pretty big sales.

 

[Dalthien]

Portable systems have never been an arena for lucrative across the board software sales anyway. Otherwise I think people see portables as secondary systems. The attach rates seem to confirm that.

This really isn't true anymore in Japan. The DS has owned the software charts for the better part of 2 years now, even blowing past the mighty PS2 in total software sold annually.

Yeah - it hasn't yet reached the high attach rates that you might be hoping for, but that means absolutely nothing at this point. The fact is that the DS is selling tons of software. It is practically impossible to build up a huge attach rate when you are selling hardware at an astronomical rate. The DS is about to surpass the PS2 LTD in Japan in under 3 years on the market. Think about that for a second. Then you'll realize that a low attach rate is pretty much a certainty when you are moving that much hardware so quickly.

The amount of software being sold on the DS these past couple years has been massive. The fact that most 3rd-party publishers decided that they didn't want to put forth a real effort on the system isn't Nintendo's fault. Nintendo has been selling software by the boatload, and the 3rd-parties that have put forth an effort have done quite well for themselves as well.

 

[ethelred]

The amount of software being sold on the DS these past couple years has been massive.

True.

For frame of reference:

2004 total sales: 56,090,000 across 1019 games
2005 total sales: 55,430,000 across 1077 games
2006 total sales: 77,160,000 across 1240 games

 

[fernoca]

3RD PARTIES

Nintendo	42

Woohoo!
Confirmed!!!

 

[nextgeneration]

True.

For frame of reference:

2004 total sales: 56,090,000 across 1019 games
2005 total sales: 55,430,000 across 1077 games
2006 total sales: 77,160,000 across 1240 games

Wow. Thanks for these numbers. I wonder how 2007 will pan out.

 

[fernoca]

Wow. Thanks for these numbers. I wonder how 2007 will pan out.

Easy..

2007 total sales: 100,000,000 across 10 Wii and 90 DS non-games

 

[Mgoblue201]

Things are getting better, although the DS is also quite ubiquitous (it also helps the DS domination when we're still in the middle of a generation turnover). I'd be interested to see complete software breakdown for the system. Obviously it doesn't take as many sales to be a success on the DS, but to me it seems like we're not seeing as many big third party sales as with past Nintendo systems. I think the DS has also had a slightly harder time gaining traction in America compared to the GBA (which had insane US sales from day one), so now with the DS starting to take over beginning this year and its continued success in Japan, hopefully we'll see some great worldwide sales (I think that's another problem, as a lot of third party games are very territorial).

But obviously a great hardware base can easily overcome a smaller attach rate, and software developers care far more about pure software numbers. But portable software is traditionally lower, especially if you compare a console with similar hardware numbers. I don't think the DS's high hardware sales have anything to do with its attach rate. I think it has actually gone up since last year as hardware sales have gained rapid strides in all countries. And didn't the PS2 have a pretty high attach rate despite high system sales?

 

[Busaiku]

How is the DS's total software sales comparing to that of other systems given the same lifespan?
I'd imagine it's higher than any handheld, but does it compare well to systems like the PS2?

 

[Deku]

You're just looking for total numbers of one vs. the other?
.

Yes. Total software units sold and split them by Nintendo v third party. If at all possible you can also split them by year so we can spot trends if there are any, If not, i'll just take the Life to Date totals.

 

[Dalthien]

Yes. Total software units sold and split them by Nintendo v third party. If at all possible you can also split them by year so we can spot trends if there are any, If not, i'll just take the Life to Date totals.

Not to move you to another thread, because ethelred has done a wonderful analysis here, but the publisher breakdown is given in this thread - http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=7313100#post7313100

The breakdown is in Post #6.

Note that I am still in the process of finishing the Top 500 update for 2006, but other than that this is about as complete of a breakdown (in terms of number of games included) as you will find.

 

[DDayton]

2004 total sales: 56,090,000 across 1019 games
2005 total sales: 55,430,000 across 1077 games
2006 total sales: 77,160,000 across 1240 games

How many titles were released for other hit systems in Japan?

That seems insanely high for the time period.

 

[Iam Canadian]

I have to admit...the strangest thing (to me) in those numbers is that the NES has the highest number of platinum games. I guess since the market is bigger, it's not as homogeneous.

 

[Dalthien]

How many titles were released for other hit systems in Japan?

That seems insanely high for the time period.

Those are total software sales across all platforms. You can see the huge boost (and revitalization) that the DS gave to the Japanese gaming industry.

 

[ethelred]

Hate to bump an old thread, but with the top 100 of 2007 having come out, I've gone and updated the first and second posts in this thread. In the first post, I've added the additional >100k sellers, and in the second I've added a number of additional series comparisons (as well as updating the platinum list, which went from 16 to 21 in the span of a few months; wow).

Anyway, figured some people might be interested so there you go.