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[QuicheFontaine]

Not really. Most of the seats labour are gaining won't be in their heartlands but in the cities and other areas were youth turnout is high. Conservative seats in the southwest and east like Rudd's are in danger of flipping.

Yeah all those Labour gains in the cities

 

[JonnyDBrit]

Newcastle East to Labour with 28k votes.

 

[Empty]

yougov says labour 59% here

 

[Meadows]

That's a much better performance for Labour

 

[CalamityPixel]

As a Sheffield guy, a lot of students are home.

 

[GoingToDelete]

I feel like this won't end well. I can hope for a labour/lib dem/SNP coalition though.

 

[weekev]

Newcastle East continuing the trend.

 

[whyamihere]

@britainelects
#GE2017: Newcastle upon Tyne East:
Lab: 67.6% (+18.1)
Con: 21.3% (+3.7)
LDem: 6.2% (-4.9)
UKIP: 3.2% (-9.4)
Grn: 1.8% (-6.9)

Big Labour swing.

 

[Sarcastic Poster]

Anyone have a link to the YouGov prediction?

 

[PJV3]

Tomorrow Jeremy can visit the Queen and sack her.

 

[Lo-Volt]

Big Labour swing.

JESUS. What the hell is going in Britain!

 

[ElectronicOldMen]

UKIP is the only party no-one cheers for at the count announcements, which is funny.

 

[chromatic9]

28k huge.

So tight with these extrapolations

Corbyn is swinging his ding-a-ling

 

[klonere]

Tomorrow Jeremy can visit the Queen and sack her.

which would let Sinn Feinn take seats in parliament!

 

[Par Score]

Stop fretting over results all in a very small geographic area that are all Labour safe seats.

The earliest seat to be worth a fuck is Nuneaton at 1am. If the exit poll gets that badly wrong then feel free to resort to cannibalism or whatever.

 

[Feorax]

Massive labour swing in Swindon.

 

[KingSnake]

It's not postal votes. Has nothing to do with that. It's just: the exit poll shows you the national swing. Regional areas have different regional politics. We've only really seen results from one region.

Imagine: two equal sized regions, A and B. A has a +12 Blue swing. B has a +12 Red swing. A perfect exit poll will show 0 swing. We're at the point where A's result has come in and we're saying "fuck, the exit poll is all wrong!".

Yeah, my first thought was also going to different swing in different areas. I guess the postal votes would be weighted in based on the previous polls and previous elections.

 

[Audioboxer]

Better have another display picture change ready.

There is a ton of good pictures to take the piss out of the SNP. Can't wait!

 

[BossDarkseid]

I feel like this won't end well. I can hope for a labour/lib dem/SNP coalition though.

If you were hoping for a Labour victory, you were probably hoping for Half Life 3.

 

[mo60]

Yeah all those Labour gains in the cities

A few dozen conservative seats in the cities are vulnerable if that exit poll is correct.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

Swindon North to the Conservatives.

 

[Timbuktu]

Big Labour swing.

Apparently not as big as exit poll again

 

[Pandy]

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

CON 302
LAB 269
SNP 44
LD 12
PC 2
Green 1
Other 2
-----
NI 18

YouGov's model has the advantage of breaking things down regionally, so unlike the exit poll you can actually see the regional disparities. If anything, the results have been moderately more pro-Labour than I'd have expected (very marginally, don't get excited).

That's more like the SNP number I was expecting.

Having to call it a night. Should be a much clearer picture when I wake up.

 

[Empty]

yougov says 52% in swindon north for tories - reality 54%

 

[jelly]

Well, this is interesting. If May gets the boot with no majority, not a bad day.

SNP might have crumbled, don't think that's the end for them, people are just sick of Brexit and IndyRef2. Brexit needs played out then they might come back again.

 

[Bumhead]

FLY IN STUDIO

 

[whyamihere]

Another huge Labour swing.

@britainelects
#GE2017: North Swindon:
Con: 53.6% (+3.3)
Lab: 38.4% (+10.6)
LDem: 3.6% (+0.3)
UKIP: 2.8% (-12.5)
Grn: 1.6% (-1.7)

 

[Stead Fast]

Up 11%! Fuck!

 

[Jezbollah]

Newcastle upon Tyne East:
Lab: 67.6% (+18.1)
Con: 21.3% (+3.7)
LDem: 6.2% (-4.9)
UKIP: 3.2% (-9.4)
Grn: 1.8% (-6.9)

North Swindon:
Con: 53.6% (+3.3)
Lab: 38.4% (+10.6)
LDem: 3.6% (+0.3)
UKIP: 2.8% (-12.5)
Grn: 1.6% (-1.7)

 

[Razzer]

The real test of the yougov model will be when we get to a seat that yougov have as better for labour than the exit poll does. If they call that correctly as well then yougov is possibly correct.

 

[empyrean]

Swindon North to the Conservatives.

It's my constituency. I voted labour .

 

[Muffin1611]

I wonder how the turnout by age statistics will look like this time.

 

[Zaph]

sound quality in 2017

 

[Guerrillas in the Mist]

"Scottish Labia"?

 

[IdreamofHIME]

FLY IN STUDIO

Or Russian spy cam?

 

[Carl]

OK, a better than expected result for Labour. Finally

 

[Bronx-Man]

Go Jeremy, glorious komrade!

 

[D4Danger]

this swing-o-meter bollocks is going to give me a heartattack

 

[weekev]

Wow Swindon result looking more promising. When the marginal seats start coming in this could be incredibly interesting.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

yougov says 52% in swindon north for tories - reality 54%

Again, YouGov within the statistical margin of error

Honestly, I think we might actually be closer to YouGov than anyone expected. I don't want to get hype, but Labour has actually been very slightly overperforming YouGov's model, if anything.

 

[Izuna]

Apparently not as big as exit poll again

You guys are so pessimistic.

~~

Also very wrong

 

[JonnyDBrit]

It's my constituency. I voted labour .

On the bright side, Labour's swing in that seat was actually pretty big. Makes it much more viable in the next election.

 

[GoingToDelete]

If you were hoping for a Labour victory, you were probably hoping for Half Life 3.

Yeah

 

[sammex]

Better swing in Swindon!

 

[Dorsal Axe]

Looks like there will be lots of regional variation, as some people here predicted.

Gonna be a looooong night.

 

[Oriel]

Tories gain their first seat. And tonights election production values on the networks has been atrocious so far. Sound poor, slow to update graphics of count numbers, etc.

 

[Lo-Volt]

David Dimbleby GOING IN on sound quality: "2017, not 1917".

 

[StayDead]

Huge swing for Labour in Swindon North!

 

[PowderedToast]

dimbleby is such a fucking troll, lmao

 

[Quick Mustard]

It's my constituency. I voted labour .

My god! Another Swindonian on NeoGaf! Hi there!
South Swindon here!
Voted Labour myself as well.