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Ukrainian Conflict - Donetsk Boogaloo

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Ukrainian army base at Perevalnoye in Crimea has been surrounded by Russian troops. Ukrainian troops have driven an APC to the gates and are refusing to surrender.

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All it'll take is one trigger happy soldier to do something stupid and this situation will spiral out of control.
 
EU isn't so dependant on Russian gas that it would halt the economy.

Even Ukraine isn't that dependant on it anymore actually. They need 40% less gas from Russia today than just 5 years ago.

Still the point is, are they willing to risk a small recession and higher oil/gas prices, dip in stocks and an impact to their economy over Crimea and the Ukraine? That's ultimately the problem.

All these people keep up bringing up NATO and EU but don't understand Ukraine wasn't part of it. NATO use of force is only justified when a member state is attacked. Now obviously this rule was "broken" in the bombing of Yugoslavia, but it's one thing to bomb and destroy Serbian military assets and prevent ethnic cleansing and war crimes, quite another to go up against Russia.
 
How big of a hammer can Russia drop on Ukraine within 24h? 1.1 million troops is not a walk in the park to break through.
 
How big of a hammer can Russia drop on Ukraine within 24h? 1.1 million troops is not a walk in the park to break through.

Well for comparison, France had over 3 million troops when Germany invaded in 1940. They fell in little more than a month.

So take that for what you will.
 
How big of a hammer can Russia drop on Ukraine within 24h? 1.1 million troops is not a walk in the park to break through.

They wouldn't be able to achieve occupation of the East in time before any possible intervention from outside forces.

I honestly don't see Obama backing down on this one. If Putin gets in his face and challenges him to do something, he probably will. He can't afford to look weak in an election year.

Well for comparison, France had over 3 million troops when Germany invaded in 1940. They fell in little more than a month.

So take that for what you will.

But that's France....

Sorry. Had to.
 
Hmm.

How fast Could US get totalt air dominance if they chose to intervene? They have bases in Turkey right? How does RU air force compare to US?
 
Hmm.

How fast Could US get totalt air dominance if they chose to intervene? They have bases in Turkey right? How does RU air force compare to US?

Russia can compete on a numerical level, but not a technical one. I don't think Russia have unmanned drones, for example. Those alone would cause Russia significant headaches.

The majority of any stand off would be Naval, in the Crimean Sea. The U.S would want to nullify Russia's superiority there. They practically have free platform for bombardment right now.
 
11.57 In Crimea, Roland Oliphant has managed to get a few words with the Ukrainian commander of the base which is being surrounded by Russians (see 11.35).
Roland is watching the proceedings from outside the base, and spoke to the commander as he left the talks.
QuoteThe Ukrainian commander of Perevalnoe, Col Sergei Starozhenko just recently completed talks with the commander of the Russian forces surrounded his base - who apparently identified himself as Alexander A, but did not identify his unit.
Col Starozhenko told journalists: "There will be no war. We've agreed not to point our weapons at each other, and they will not enter the base."
He said as far as he understands these Russians came from Sebastopol, but he doesn't know if they are permanently stationed there - or whether they had been brought in from mainland Russia.
He said that when he asked the Russians what their mission was, he was told: "To keep the peace."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...o-help-as-Obama-warns-of-costs-to-Moscow.html
 
Hmm.

How fast Could US get totalt air dominance if they chose to intervene? They have bases in Turkey right? How does RU air force compare to US?

The US is not going to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. You are talking about the start of a new world war. That is just not going to happen.
 
Jesus Christ.

No one is going to use Nuclear Weapons. Even if Nato moved Half a million troops into the Ukraine there would be no Nukes flying.

You nuclear fear mongers are exactly why Russia is doing what it is doing. You are so scared you shit your pants at just the thought of doing the right thing.
 
Are you kidding me? Russia will answer an attack with an atomic war.

I'm just theoretical... But going from std war to nuclear? No way.

Russia can compete on a numerical level, but not a technical one. I don't think Russia have unmanned drones, for example. Those alone would cause Russia significant headaches.

The majority of any stand off would be Naval, in the Crimean Sea. The U.S would want to nullify Russia's superiority there. They practically have free platform for bombardment right now.

Yes, and US fleet is by far the largest and strongest right?

calm down armchair generals, the US aren't going to intervene on a military level. atomic war? oh wow.

Ofc they won't, but intresting discussing the topic.
 
Hmm.

How fast Could US get totalt air dominance if they chose to intervene? They have bases in Turkey right? How does RU air force compare to US?

Theoretical:

Wouldn't be able to get air dominance at all. Russian anti-aircraft and anti-missile are perhaps the best in the world. The S-300 and S-400 systems are probably already in Crimea and along the East. Unless the US plans to bring in its super expensive F-22 stealth fighters (believe they were grounded), they'll have a really hard time. Against Georgia, the Russians used decrepit Soviet-Era fighters. Against the US, they'll use their modern Sukhoi and Mig aircraft. Would essentially be a crap shoot and a hell of a dogfight and Russia would have the advantage as their bases are but few miles away. While it's obvious it's been in decline since the Soviet days, the Russians still have the second most potent air force in the world, and still supply fighter jets and engines to China and Russia.
 
The US is not going to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. You are talking about the start of a new world war. That is just not going to happen.

While I also think the US/NATO will not go to war, I imagine many similar statements were spoken before the breakout of WW2.
 
While I also think the US/NATO will not go to war, I imagine many similar statements were spoken before the breakout of WW2.

World was a very different place back then, plus that shit had been brewing for over decades.
 
Yes, and US fleet is by far the largest and strongest right?

So close to Russian ports and airbases? They would have a hard time. You have to remember, this is practically Russia's backyard. The first thing they would do in the scenario of armed conflict with the U.S is go after any Carrier groups that are deployed there.

Turkey is another matter entirely. I really don't think Russia would want to draw their ire.
 
While I also think the US/NATO will not go to war, I imagine many similar statements were spoken before the breakout of WW2.
Chamberlain proclaiming "peace in our time" after talking with Hitler before the war comes to mind.
 
Why do you think Israel and the US went hysterical when Russia almost sold Iran their S-300 missile systems, that while still older, are some of the best in the world. They completely remove quick surgical strikes or Drones from the equation because you'd need dozens and dozens of fighters then, as opposed to just a few.
 
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Seriously though, this is getting crazy. I hope they can work it out between themselves, but honestly I don't know how that is going to happen.

All the citizens are like pawns, and it's just WORLD LEADERS that are causing this mess. It's so ridiculous!
 
Theoretical:

Wouldn't be able to get air dominance at all. Russian anti-aircraft and anti-missile are perhaps the best in the world. The S-300 and S-400 systems are probably already in Crimea and along the East. Unless the US plans to bring in its super expensive F-22 stealth fighters (believe they were grounded), they'll have a really hard time. Against Georgia, the Russians used decrepit Soviet-Era fighters. Against the US, they'll use their modern Sukhoi and Mig aircraft. Would essentially be a crap shoot and a hell of a dogfight and Russia would have the advantage as their bases are but few miles away. While it's obvious it's been in decline since the Soviet days, the Russians still have the second most potent air force in the world, and still supply fighter jets and engines to China and Russia.

Yup, I posted a vid from Liveleak a couple of pages back showing S-400 systems being moved into Crimea.

Edit: Here it is, http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=c62_1393673617
 
Well for comparison, France had over 3 million troops when Germany invaded in 1940. They fell in little more than a month.

So take that for what you will.

The genius French tactic of placing most of their troops in one central defensive line which allowed the Germans to swarm round the sides and behind to cut them off from supplies helped quite a bit. Whether they wanted a big fight, who knows but France made it easy.
 
How big of a hammer can Russia drop on Ukraine within 24h? 1.1 million troops is not a walk in the park to break through.

Difficult to say, we don't really know how many they've mobilized. A report by the Russian Studies Programme by the Swedish Defense Research Agency in December last year estimated that the Russian southern military district could be expected to mobilize seven brigades with full air and naval support within any given week. A brigade is usually defined as between 3,000 to 5,000 fully equipped troops. Considering that Russia obviously had time on their side this time, that number's probably larger. Possibly closer to 10 brigades which is what the report expected to be mobilized after brigades were transferred from the other military districts.

The report estimated that Russia could expect to be able to mobilize a maximum of 19 brigades, 3 airborne divisions and 1 airborne brigade within a 6 month window.

The largest reason it takes that long is that logistics is Russia's achilles heel. They rely very heavily on being able to transport units by rail, both within Russia and within any eastern European country with compatible railway gauges. The report outlined that the ability of the Russian military to conduct sustained operations even in a limited conflict was questionable.

As for naval assets, they would probably play a minor role in the conflict. The Russian Black Sea Fleet only operates 5 larger combat vessels and 4 guided-missile corvettes apart from the usual jumble of anti-submarine units, coastal defence vessels and the odd sub or two. Enough to be a hassle but vulnerable, especially considering that Sevastopol is so close to Ukraine.

More or less the entire air force would be available, of course. But they wouldn't face an easy task. Ukraine has considerable anti-air capabilities, largely because they inherited the Soviet doctrine where USSR forces were always expected to be facing massive NATO air power. I don't have any exact numbers on them though but it includes everything in the old Soviet arsenal from mobile AA like Shilka to large, long range SAM units like TOR, BUK and S-300.

This is made worse for the Russians because of the fact that they lack experience operating in such an environment. They managed to lose half a dozen aircraft or so in Georgia despite that conflict being tiny with only a hundred dead on each side. Suffice to say, I wouldn't want to be a Russian pilot going up against a fully prepared Ukrainian air defence.

That said, the Russian air force does have an intimidating stand-off capacity with a large number of advanced air-launched cruise missiles.

To put all of this in perspective: it's almost certainly beyond the capacity of the Russian military to pull off a Shock & Awe campaign against a prepared opponent on the scale of the one the US did in Iraq. They don't have that kind of experience. But they have more than enough raw firepower to make things very bloody very quickly.
 
Difficult to say, we don't really know how many they've mobilized. A report by the Russian Studies Programme by the Swedish Defense Research Agency in December last year estimated that the Russian southern military district could be expected to mobilize seven brigades with full air and naval support within any given week. A brigade is usually defined as between 3,000 to 5,000 fully equipped troops. Considering that Russia obviously had time on their side this time, that number's probably larger. Possibly closer to 10 brigades which is what the report expected to be mobilized after brigades were transferred from the other military districts.

The report estimated that Russia could expect to be able to mobilize a maximum of 19 brigades, 3 airborne divisions and 1 airborne brigade within a 6 month window.

The largest reason it takes that long is that logistics is Russia's achilles heel. They rely very heavily on being able to transport units by rail, both within Russia and within any eastern European country with compatible railway gauges. The report outlined that the ability of the Russian military to conduct sustained operations even in a limited conflict was questionable.

As for naval assets, they would probably play a minor role in the conflict. The Russian Black Sea Fleet only operates 5 larger combat vessels and 4 guided-missile corvettes apart from the usual jumble of anti-submarine units, coastal defence vessels and the odd sub or two. Enough to be a hassle but vulnerable, especially considering that Sevastopol is so close to Ukraine.

More or less the entire air force would be available, of course. But they wouldn't face an easy task. Ukraine has considerable anti-air capabilities, largely because they inherited the Soviet doctrine where USSR forces were always expected to be facing massive NATO air power. I don't have any exact numbers on them though but it includes everything in the old Soviet arsenal from mobile AA like Shilka to large, long range SAM units like TOR, BUK and S-300.

This is made worse for the Russians because of the fact that they lack experience operating in such an environment. They managed to lose half a dozen aircraft or so in Georgia despite that conflict being tiny with only a hundred dead on each side. Suffice to say, I wouldn't want to be a Russian pilot going up against a fully prepared Ukrainian air defence.

That said, the Russian air force does have an intimidating stand-off capacity with a large number of advanced air-launched cruise missiles.

To put all of this in perspective: it's almost certainly beyond the capacity of the Russian military to pull off a Shock & Awe campaign against a prepared opponent on the scale of the one the US did in Iraq. They don't have that kind of experience. But they have more than enough raw firepower to make things very bloody very quickly.

Thank you. Great post.

Any signs how Turkey will respond yet?
 
Thank you. Great post.

Any signs how Turkey will respond yet?

Along with the rest of NATO I imagine. They did put in that request that Crimea should consider returning to Turkey if they declare independence (referring to an agreement from the 18th century, imagine that) but I don't think they're actually serious about that one. More of a "hey, remember us, we used to rule that territory too" kind of thing.
 
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