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[monkeymagic]

Because it plays Madden and looks pretty, is available and cheaper. People do it all the time. Tons of people just want a new Madden machine every few years and they aren't as brand loyal as messageboard fanbots.

Oh yes I forgot the tired old 'Madden consumer' chestnut - where they'd buy anything with a Madden sticker on it.

Or so some would have us believe.

Madden brand > Playstation brand obviously.

 

[soundwave05]

Because it plays Madden and looks pretty, is available and at a reasonable price. People do it all the time. Tons of people just want a new Madden machine every few years and they aren't as brand loyal as messageboard fanbots.

You know how some people always buy a Honda, all the time, and never get anything else? Do you know there are also tons of people who liked Hondas for years but one year decided to get a Mazda or Toyota because it was the right car at the right time? But the zealots, they never get it, they never understand that everybody isn't exactly like them.

Actually, I don't buy this.

When you tell someone that something they want is not availible ... it just makes them want it more.

We've heard this scenario so many times before ... the Dreamcast would cash in on PS2 shortages ... didn't happen. People just wanted a PS2 even more. People didn't buy an XBox when they couldn't get a 360.

The best thing Sony can do is get the PS3 out in North America, even if it's sold out, that will just create a rabid demand for it.

To undercut the Madden issue, that's one big reason why Sony should think about launching in North America first. They should be ready to launch in one territory by September ... make it North America. Launching in Japan first just for tradition's sake would be foolish.

In Japan they could wait until as late as March or even April 2007 and it probably wouldn't make a lick of difference there in the long run.

 

[Vince]

so you telling me just all the ppl are idiots for doubting sony even if sony offcials admits that there might be a possibility of a delay?

Anyone is forced to admit the possibility of a delay; the future is uncertain. So should we instantly assume all the worst-case scenarios for every company on the NYSE and NASDAQ because every single PR release or statement is buttressed by a "forward-looking" clause? I'd certainly hope not.

So, nope, that only happens on forums like this when you get a bunch of people with nothing better to do creating their own hype for a platform in a purposely created information vacuum; which is ironic since it's almost invariable that these same people will, in not less than 4 years time, be posting about how Sony's fucking hype machine is the only reason why the PS3 is destroying the competition.

 

[Vince]

You realize, of course, that this makes you a chickenshit?

You realize, of course, that you just called me a "chickenshit" on an internet forum over a post I made? What next, are you going to send your dad after me; challenge at the monkeybars at 3:30? No wonder Jaffe stopped posting.

 

[kaching]

Because it's fun to point out hypocrisy, and GAF has no major shortage of it.

But you don't just point out hypocrisy in these threads, you have you're own take on the subject of when the the PS3 will launch. And with hypocrisy as rampant as it is at GAF, you still choose to gravitate towards these PS3 launch prediction threads in order to make fun of hypocrisy. So let's cut the BS that you don't care and therefore can't understand why anyone would care.

You know who refuses to allow doubt for that which has not manifested itself? Religious zealots, that's who.

I assume you're keeping tabs, so can you tell me which posters haven't allowed for *any* doubt on this subject?

Well, then you don't have a goddamn clue. I run a multiplatform gaming site, participate in a multiplatform podcast, and I'm a huge gaming and home theater buff with 30 consoles and two arcade machines in my house, and I haven't missed a launch in over a decade (incluiding PSX, PS2, and PSP). Go back to your distorted fanboy world where you think everybody else is a fanboy.

No need to go to extremes here, BM. You don't have to be a fanboy for my prediction to come to pass. A preference will do.

 

[cvxfreak]

Wow, this thread is full of bitterness.

 

[Beer Monkey]

But you don't just point out hypocrisy in these threads, you have you're own take on the subject of when the the PS3 will launch. And with hypocrisy as rampant as it is at GAF, you still choose to gravitate towards these PS3 launch prediction threads in order to make fun of hypocrisy. So let's cut the BS that you don't care and therefore can't understand why anyone would care.

It's just all good fun. The hypocrites are the ones who feel that PS3 WILL LAUNCH IN SPRING BECAUSE THEY PROJECTED IT WITH POWERPOINT AND SONY IS NEVER WRONG, but become curiously silent when asked to wager their account or their avatar over it. I'm not a hypocrite for having an opinion, and I'm certainly willing to put my account where my mouth is.

I assume you're keeping tabs, so can you tell me which posters haven't allowed for *any* doubt on this subject?

Not a clue. Most of them all look the same to me, I don't really remember names except for Massive Attack since he stood up for his convictions.

No need to go to extremes here, BM. You don't have to be a fanboy for my prediction to come to pass. A preference will do.

Ah, you just don't get it. I have a preference for DS over PSP, and a preference for PS2 over Gamecube, and I had preferences when all the systems launched, but I still bought them all. It's what I do. I want access to all of the best games of every generation and the only way to do it is to buy every console. I don't even think twice about it.

When you tell someone that something they want is not availible ... it just makes them want it more.

We've heard this scenario so many times before ... the Dreamcast would cash in on PS2 shortages ... didn't happen. People just wanted a PS2 even more. People didn't buy an XBox when they couldn't get a 360.

The best thing Sony can do is get the PS3 out in North America, even if it's sold out, that will just create a rabid demand for it.

Picture two scenarios.

First: 360 production is under control, and MS can make as many of them as they want; they can make ten million of them this year. Piles of 360 premium and core packs at every major retailer. Sony only gets 500,000 PS3s into the US market by Xmas.

Second: Same as the first, but this time Sony gets 5 million PS3s into the US market. When buyers walk into stores they see piles of 360s and piles of PS3s. Huge lines at launch and only a small trickle of additional systems come out by Xmas. eBay prices regularly top $1200.

And here you think that MS will sell the exact same number of 360s in either scenario. Right.

It absolutely matters to Sony how much they can produce this year.

 

[D3VI0US]

Anyone is forced to admit the possibility of a delay; the future is uncertain. So should we instantly assume all the worst-case scenarios for every damn company on the NYSE and NASDAQ because every single PR release or statement is buttressed by a "forward-looking" clause?

No, that only happens on forums like this when you get a bunch of people with nothing better to do creating their own hype for a platform in a purposely created information vacuum; which is ironic since it's almost invariable that these same people will, in not less than 4 years time, be posting about how Sony's fucking hype machine is the only reason why the PS3 is destroying the competition.

Are you that blind? That possibility gets more and more likely with every passing day, and every bit of "news" that we get that perpetuates the current perception of delay. What you call a worse case scenario everyone else calls pretty fucking likely, and more and more are hopping on that bandwagon everyday. We have multiple sources presenting information albeit not officially most likely cause they can't due to NDA's and all that jazz that PS3 is gonna be delayed. Nothing official from Sony for pretty obvious reasons already stated.

The only people who created any kind of information vaccuum are Sony by being so tight lipped and letting rumors fly, if they were on schedule to begin with this wouldn't be much of an issue but as far as we know they're not as exhibited by the delays in playable software and the release of dev kits. 360 are gonna be on shelves, A games are coming out, and people are hearing about a PS3 delay. Rather than get all the bad mainstream press at arguably the worst time possible you'd think they'd show their hand. They certainly didn't upstage the 360 like they did with the DC which means MS caught them with their pants down.

I'm sure once the Sony hype machine kicks into high gear we can look forward to a real treat especially given how we're all salivating for anything. Still this ain't 2000 and the Sony hype machine isn't gonna be as effective when MS and Nintendo are vying for that same spotlight and all companies have sound strategies and viable consoles. The PS3 hype won't hold up when it's running the same version of Madden as the 360 to the untrained eye. Still I'd expect no less from a person talking about the irony of PS3 haters painting the worst case scenario while he assumes everything all peachy keen despite the factual evidence in front of his face to the contrary. Sony said Spring, must be true cause its official from Sony. Please. :lol

 

[soundwave05]

Picture two scenarios.

First: 360 production is under control, and MS can make as many of them as they want; they can make ten million of them this year. Piles of 360 premium and core packs at every major retailer. Sony only gets 500,000 PS3s into the US market by Xmas.

Second: Same as the first, but this time Sony gets 5 million PS3s into the US market. When buyers walk into stores they see piles of 360s and piles of PS3s. Huge lines at launch and only a small trickle of additional systems come out by Xmas. eBay prices regularly top $1200.

And here you think that MS will sell the exact same number of 360s in either scenario. Right.

It absolutely matters to Sony how much they can produce this year.

Your scenarios are pretty extreme in either case.

If Sony can get more along the lines of 1.2-1.5 million PS3s in North America this year, that will be a solid launch for them.

Of course it matters how many Sony can produce. I said that myself in this same thread.

I don't buy the logic that people will arbitrarily just buy a 360 if the PS3 is the system they want. Infact, I think being told that they can't have one will make them want one even more ... that's really more of what happens during these system launches.

If that wasn't the case you wouldn't see the ridiculous eBay markups. People are quite willing to wait a few weeks to get their choice of platform, because everyone knows a game console is something they're going to use for 4-5 years. If you're going to spend like $400 on a game machine, you might as well get the one you want, and that's generally exactly what happens.

 

[Vince]

Are you that blind? That possibility gets more and more likely with every passing day, and every bit of "news" that we get that perpetuates the current perception of delay.

I really don't like most of your post as I dont think it's that useful and isn't very logical. I will address two points, namely:

(a) Why, pray tell, would it get "more and more likely" with each passing day from Sony or a Developer's PoV? Each day they get more work done, even as you post quality statements like this. For them, the external knowledge (or lack thereof) is orthogonal to what's being accomplished. The things that matter, eg. SCE/Developers are a continuious function... A dev still needs to get up and work every day. It's only the things that people like yourself think that matter, but really do not -- like the PR -- that is discrete. And for that very reason it doesn't get more probable "with every passing day."

The only people who created any kind of information vaccuum are Sony by being so tight lipped and letting rumors fly, if they were on schedule to begin with this wouldn't be much of an issue but as far as we know they're not as exhibited by the delays in playable software and the release of dev kits.

(b) Again, your statement is baseless. There is no casual link that necessitates that Sony's quiteness is due to a delay; that's a perception that's being spread by the media and people like yourself without any objective evidence to support it. I find it amazing that people default to this delay argument when, in reality, all the technical aspects are basically on-target and a strong argument can be made that Sony is attempting to balance out the continued strong, profitable, PlayStation2 and PSP sales without invoking the Osborne Effect.

PlayStation2 is still at $150 and outselling everything out there, lest not forget; although that fact is somehow lost in every single PlayStation3 delayed article. Just as is the intern Blu-Ray Spec, IBM Cell sales/production, RSX's completion, etc.

 

[kaching]

I'm not a hypocrite for having an opinion...

No you're a hypocrite for acting like you can't conceive of a reason why anyone would care when the PS3 launches, as I've said from the beginning of this exchange while you keep trying to veer away from it and point the finger at others who you can't even name.

Ah, you just don't get it. I have a preference for DS over PSP, and a preference for PS2 over Gamecube, and I had preferences when all the systems launched, but I still bought them all. It's what I do. I want access to all of the best games of every generation and the only way to do it is to buy every console. I don't even think twice about it.

I get it just fine. For someone who has such a problem with others declaring absolutes, you're not going to convince otherwise by trying to declare an absolute of your own.

 

[D3VI0US]

Your scenarios are pretty extreme in either case.

If Sony can get more along the lines of 1.2-1.5 million PS3s in North America this year, that will be a solid launch for them.

Of course it matters how many Sony can produce. I said that myself in this same thread.

I don't buy the logic that people will arbitrarily just buy a 360 if the PS3 is the system they want. Infact, I think being told that they can't have one will make them want one even more ... that's really more of what happens during these system launches.

If that wasn't the case you wouldn't see the ridiculous eBay markups. People are quite willing to wait a few weeks to get their choice of platform, because everyone knows a game console is something they're going to use for 4-5 years.

Right but you don't think delaying the launch from Spring in any territory to later in the year would effect supply later in the year. Either way demand is gonna be greater than supply as far as PS3 hardware is concerned worldwide in 06. However you're making the assumption that people are walking into a store with the intention of buying a PS3, that's not always gonna be true. No one can really say how many converts there will be, but it depends on how many Sony ships, price, and launch lineup and all these other factors we still don't know.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Your scenarios are pretty extreme in either case.

Extreme examples will have extreme outcomes, but the effects that create those outcomes will remain a factor in less extreme examples.

I don't buy the logic that people will arbitrarily just buy a 360 if the PS3 is the system they want.

It's not all people, and it's not arbitrary. Some will look at it and decide that it isn't just available, but that it's functionally equivalent for their mainstream needs. Madden, check. Shooters, check. Survival horror, check.

Maybe not a majority but still a very significant amount of gamers aren't nearly as discriminating as many of us are. Hell, it probably is a majority.

People are quite willing to wait a few weeks to get their choice of platform, because everyone knows a game console is something they're going to use for 4-5 years.

Sorry, but the dad that brings home a 360 instead of PS3 for Christmas '06 is still the cool dad, just less cool. The dad who tells the kids that he'll try to get that PS3 by next June is just lame. I've witnessed this scenario myself.

No you're a hypocrite for acting like you can't conceive of a reason why anyone would care when the PS3 launches, as I've said from the beginning of this exchange while you keep trying to veer away from it and point the finger at others who you can't even name.

You got me there. To me, nailing internet trolls is fun sport, while worshiping corporations is just pathetic. I can't conceive of the reason for the latter (it just doesn't seem very much fun!), but I guess you can. Your analogy is lousy, though. But if it makes you feel better, more power to you.

 

[soundwave05]

Extreme examples will have extreme outcomes, but the effects that create those outcomes will remain a factor in less extreme examples.



It's not all people, and it's not arbitrary. Some will look at it and decide that it isn't just available, but that it's functionally equivalent for their mainstream needs. Madden, check. Shooters, check. Survival horror, check.

Maybe not a majority but still a very significant amount of gamers aren't nearly as discriminating as many of us are. Hell, it probably is a majority.



Sorry, but the dad that brings home a 360 instead of PS3 for Christmas '06 is still the cool dad, just less cool. The dad who tells the kids that he'll try to get that PS3 by next June is just lame. I've witnessed this scenario myself.

"Daddy" isn't buying his kids either a PS3 or 360 this Christmas ... they're too expensive. That audience will be more of a factor in holiday 2007 and beyond as price cuts occur and the libraries for each platform mature.

The people buying the PS3/360 will be more of the early adopter/older crowd and yes, that crowd is discriminating.

I've worked retail, I tried to reccomend alternative platforms (like the Dreamcast) ... it's not an easy sell at all. When you tell someone something is sold out, it actually creates the opposite effect most of the time. It's human nature -- when something is scarce it becomes artificially more valuable.

Like it or not, the PS3 is going to be the system to get this fall "so you can talk to your buddies about it around the water cooler at work the next day" type thing. If its scarce, getting one just raises its status that much more.

If they just sorta wanted a PS2, when you tell them there are no PS2s left, suddenly they *really* want a PS2. It actually deflates the value of the other systems.

 

[Beer Monkey]

I get it just fine. For someone who has such a problem with others declaring absolutes, you're not going to convince otherwise by trying to declare an absolute of your own.

Wow, you really don't see the difference between declaring an absolute as to what some corporation is going to do on the other side of the world, and absolutes as to ones own buying habits? You've got to be shitting me. :lol

Guess what, I'm going to buy milk and bread at Kroger this week, but I'm sure you don't believe it! Look at me and my crazy absolutes!

"Daddy" isn't buying his kids either a PS3 or 360 this Christmas ... they're too expensive. That audience will be more of a factor in holiday 2007 and beyond as price cuts occur and the libraries for each platform mature.

You haven't seen the spoiled kids that I've been seeing in the last few years. The 'daddy' factor is on the rise.

 

[soundwave05]

You haven't seen the spoiled kids that I've been seeing in the last few years. The 'daddy' factor is on the rise.

Yeah but even that audience ... those spoiled kids are spoiled for a reason ... they *know* exactly what they want and they get it, this is really not the casual audience you're equating it to be.

These spoiled kids will let their parents know in no uncertain terms exactly what system or toy they want.

The true casual soccer mom/9-to-5 dad crowd will not be a big factor until 2007 and really probably more like 2008.

The vast majority of people buying a PS3 or 360 this year will be 16-35 year old males who are buying the system for themselves. And when you tell these people that something they want is not availible ... well they simply just want it more.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Yeah but even that audience ... those spoiled kids are spoiled for a reason ... they *know* exactly what they want and they get it, this is really not the casual audience you're equating it to be.

These spoiled kids will let their parents know in no uncertain terms exactly what system or toy they want.

And the same kids would rather have a lump of coal for christmas?

Your observations are not the same as mine. Even brats can usually be placated.

We'll just have to agree to disagree. You admit that it matters how much Sony can produce but you reject any type of consumer behavior where somebody would ever actually buy anything but the one console that they worship (making us an entire nation of GAFfers, I guess). I'll leave it to you to reconcile the two.

 

[soundwave05]

And the same kids would rather have a lump of coal for christmas?

Your observations are not the same as mine. Even brats can usually be placated.

We'll just have to agree to disagree. You admit that it matters how much Sony can produce but you reject any type of consumer behavior where somebody would ever actually buy anything but the one console that they worship (making us an entire nation of GAFfers, I guess). I'll leave it to you to reconcile the two.

You don't have to be a GAFer to know the difference between a PS3 or 360.

The people buying the PS3 and 360 this year will tend to know more about the consoles than the true casuals.

I don't agree with your scenario because I've heard it before it just doesn't happen. It didn't happen for the Dreamcast.

Walk into a dance club by yourself. Now walk in with two friends of yours that happen to be girls.

Some people would say well you won't get as much attention from girls because they'll see you're taken -- however, I don't think this is human nature. When you're taken, you're even more wanted.

This applies to consumerism too ... if it didn't, you wouldn't see grown men fighting over a red doll that says "That Tickles".

There might be someone who's casually interested in the PS3 ... maybe considering it ... when they get to the store and see the chaos and all the hype and hoopla, and find out the system is sold out ... in my opinion, that person will want that system even *more*. Not less.

It happened for the 360 last Christmas, it will happen again for the PS3 this year.

 

[Beer Monkey]

You don't have to be a GAFer to know the difference between a PS3 or 360.

The people buying the PS3 and 360 this year will tend to know more about the consoles than the true casuals.

I don't agree with your scenario because I've heard it before it just doesn't happen.

It does happen. I don't even have to go looking, I see it all the time. Here's a post from an audiophile music forum that I belong to.

This time around, the price of the consoles is high enough for me to want to wait for both systems to come out, and then compare them.

One thing is for sure, though. IF the 360 gets a good line-up of games before the PS3 comes out, I'll probably get it. And I think most people may do the same, too. This is the chance Microsoft was hoping for.

http://stevehoffman.tv/forums/showthread.php?t=73295

This guy is a PS2 fan. I see this kind of talk all the time, both in real life and even online (in non-gaming forums). And I've seen people act on it. I see it enough that there have to be many millions of people out there that feel this way.

 

[kaching]

You got me there. To me, nailing internet trolls is fun sport, while worshiping corporations is just pathetic. I can't conceive of the reason for the latter (it just doesn't seem very much fun!), but I guess you can.

To me, claiming to nail internet trolls that you can't even name is just as pathetic as corporation worship. And, in any case, having an interest in when the PS3 launches really has nothing to do with either.

Your analogy is lousy, though.

What analogy?

Wow, you really don't see the difference between declaring an absolute as to what some corporation is going to do on the other side of the world, and absolutes as to ones own buying habits? You've got to be shitting me. :lol

You're just some anonymous person posting on the Internet - I know nothing about you outside of your online persona. Why in the world would you expect me to put more stock in the claims you make about what you will do, as compared to what a corporation says it will do?

Guess what, I'm going to buy milk and bread at Kroger this week, but I'm sure you don't believe it! Look at me and my crazy absolutes!

Talk about a lousy analogy - comparing the purchase of necessities to the purchase of luxuries.

Anyway, I'll offer you the last word on this particular disagreement. As you say, addressing hypocrisy like yours is all in good fun, but I know GAF has only so much tolerance for it and as much as these daily PS3 launch delay threads are a wasteland of otherwise useful info, I'll refrain from "derailing" this one further.

 

[Beer Monkey]

To me, claiming to nail internet trolls that you can't even name is just as pathetic as corporation worship.

Criticizing people for nailing trolls has to be at least as pathetic as the nailing of the trolls. So where does that put you? :lol

And thanks for admitting that corporate worship is pathetic.

You're just some anonymous person posting on the Internet - I know nothing about you outside of your online persona. Why in the world would you expect me to put more stock in the claims you make about what you will do, as compared to what a corporation says it will do?

Dude, you are the one making predictions that I really won't buy a PS3. Think of the irony in all that you are saying. I'm just some anonymous person that nobody can believe but you can certainly believe one thing about me. You'd make your point far better if you were consistent and said 'who knows what you do or do not do in real life' instead of predicting that I won't buy a PS3!

My claims obviously mean a heck of a lot to you, since you
Talk about a lousy analogy - comparing the purchase of necessities to the purchase of luxuries.

We're just talking about a relatively inexpensive hobby here, not yachting. The point is that there's nothing silly about predicting what you can control (especially when it fits your normal habits), but predicting what you cannot control all because you worship some corporate entity is moronic! Especially when you do it to the point of declaring absolutes!

Anyway, I'll offer you the last word on this particular disagreement.

Really?

 

[Vennt]

How about I have the last word, here it is:

Locked!