They are borderline last place in terms of hardware sales, this is despite having a year lead over one of Sony's worst start to a generation, ever. They also do not have dominance in any major region. Third party exclusives are probably going to be much harder to come by as well.
Microsoft have two IP's left which have appeal to the type of gamers they attracted heavily to the 360 in its early stages, however one of those has taken so much damage since 2009 that it has a fraction of the influence it once held, and the other has only ever performed modest numbers. Neither of these are going to attract people to Xbox Live next generation, couple this with Xbox live slowly, but steadily descending into third place as an online service (despite being the only one that is a paid service) and it is quite clear that incompetent Microsoft are going to need to invest in some new properties to distinguish themselves in this upcoming generation.
This is unsurprising. With Rare and Lionhead being essentially dead, Microsoft had better hope Black Tusk's title actually has some appeal, otherwise all of these shitty Kinect projects + Call of Halo is going to be a deterrent, if anything.
Nintendo, Nintendo again.
More relevant to Sony's failings, if anything. It's not like they own the UK market.
Regardless, with respect to XBLA hitting third place, and Microsoft not having the advantage of 'everyone playing on Xbox'. I doubt this theoretical new IP will have major appeal on their platform next generation.
Are Lionhead and Rare safe bets for hardcore titles? Lionhead has lost key staff, not to mention their most recent title was Kinect exclusive (and a complete flop). Rare haven't put a hardcore game out for over half a decade.
Microsoft are pretty much relying on their last, best developer (Turn 10) and the unproven 'Black Tusk Studios', to cater to the hardcore.
You've jumped into this thread with a lot of BS, and your belligerent ramblings make no sense.
First of all, if you wanna talk numbers and sales then Microsoft has utterly crushed Sony in North America and UK, this is coming from a generation where Sony was outselling the Xbox 6 TIMES over. Microsoft will also be overtaking the Wii very soon in LTD sales in these markets and are already selling more than the PS3/Wii combined on a month-to-month basis. You wanna give all of this credit to Sony's failings, but supposedly Sony is at its peak over the past few years, with Killzone/Uncharted/God of War, yet Microsoft has crushed them with the Kinect initiative. So why is it that Sony at its best isn't able beat Microsoft when they are supposedly at their worst?
As for games, the last major Gears, Fable and Forza title still sold more than 95% of all of Sonys titles. And Halo 4 is the highest selling Halo title in the franchise history so far into it's release period. It's also likely sold more than all of Sony's 2012 first party titles combined.
Now, as for quality, people like you are quick to proclaim the death of Lionhead and RARE, when their (and Microsoft's) focus on Kinect is exactly what led to the rejuvenation of the 360's sales and where we now see the 360 taking half the marketshare every month. Although, you'd be foolish to think that these large studios (each of them have multiple teams) aren't going to be focused on hardcore titles come next gen. Lionhead and RARE were doing incredible things this gen before Sony fans could latch on to Killzone and Uncharted. They have some of the most technically proficient developers in the world. You would have to be really naive to not see where Microsoft's focus is for the new gen. There's a reason they've started up half a dozen new studios for the next gen.
And lastly, what the hell is up with the constant "Xbox Live is in third place" BS? You realize that XBLA/DLC/DD releases in general vastly outsell anything on the PSN or WiiWare right? Just look at the 5 million sales of Minecraft on XBLA. Microsoft's also has a much bigger software push for XBLA than either of their competitors. XBLA is still the dominant console Digital Platform.
Xbox Live itself is over 40 million+ users, which you better believe are vastly more active than Playstation or Wii users. Not to mention that Microsoft actually makes revenue from it and isn't giving it away for free. You would think Sony would be able to muster higher sales on its Digital Platform, yet time and time again we see that XBLA titles performs a lot better.