Industry watchers like Mat P. from NPD, Dr. Serkan Toto etc revisit their pre-pandemic predictions for 2020 and looks to the year ahead
- MatFlexibility will help determine success
This is not much of a quantifiable prediction, but there's little evidence that the coming months will end up being any more predictable than the past year. I am expecting more game delays, continued challenges in production and distribution for gaming hardware and peripherals, potential significant shifts in consumer play behaviors given pandemic conditions within countries or regions, and unpredictable impact from changing economic conditions. The companies that can best navigate these uncertainties will have an advantage. This is no time to become enamored with a particular plan or timeline.
Nintendo Switch stays on top
Despite the launch of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series consoles, it will be the Nintendo Switch that ends up selling the most units of console hardware in 2021. I will go a step further and suggest this will be driven by content and promotional efforts rather than the release of a new iterative model.
- Dr. TotoSwitch Pro launches
Yes, I know, I know. I predict a beefed-up 4K device is coming during Nintendo's next financial year. And let it be said: "Switch" is just a word.
Nintendo marches on
Everybody expecting the Switch to run out of steam in 2021 is in for a bitter disappointment. The Switch will be the best-selling console this year as well, driven by more first-party games, a hardware refresh (see above), and the device having developed into a lifestyle product for the mass market over the course of 2020.
PS5 pulls ahead
Personally, I like the new Xbox but believe Sony's PS5 will be significantly ahead at the end of 2021 in terms of both hardware and software sales globally. In Japan (where I am based), Sony is very likely to miss the PS4's first-year sales numbers because of Nintendo's continuing dominance in both companies' home market.
Read more at https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2021-01-04-analyst-predictions-for-2021
My 2021 predictions
- Switch to sell 30 million units
- Software sales to double YoY on the Switch
- BotW 2 to be the biggest console exclusive launch of all time
- Monster Hunter Rise to be the fastest selling 3rd Party in N ecosystem of all time-not sure who holds the record
What do you think about 2021?