It's the start of the singularity! It's like dividing by zero!
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Wii U US November Sales Estimated at 149K by Pachter
- Thread starter Horse Armour
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It's the start of the singularity! It's like dividing by zero!
I doubt the Xbox One is anywhere near Wii U's LTD. Nor is PS4 (they cant meet demand yet).
It's just over 4 million, btw.
Aquamarine
Member
We have USA and Japanese sales...we need a leaker for GfK (Europe + South Africa) and NPD (Canada + Australia + New Zealand).
Only then can we have a complete picture for the most recent Wii U LTD worldwide sales.
Yeah, actually I take it back about XBO -- it will probably take it a while longer. PS4 will probably pass it as soon as they've made more units than Wii U's LTD number.
Yea they have games out but they are also dealing with the launch of the PS4 & X1 that no matter how you slice it is going to cause them problems hitting certain sales numbers. The fact that they have games out now, positive awareness developing (gaf, media,anecdotal, etc) indicates a general perception and trend change. Combine that with doing RELATIVELY decent sales in the face of the X1 and PS4 launch combined with having a horrible year to me is gaining some basic footing after walking on nothing but sand the past 10 months..
EDIT: its not about aiming for sub 500k, its about aiming for the best they can given current reality while focusing more on how to change the overall trend and make 2014 a much better year.
Theres zero indication they've done RELATIVELY decent sales in the face of those launches.
Well, where does it go from here? You don't think next holiday is gonna be worse when supply is fine for XB1/PS4, and their heavy hitting holiday titles are out? There will also be discounts on games and perhaps bundles, none of which were really present at launch.
Manmademan
Member
don't forget the PS3 and 360 will only get cheaper next year, and the WiiU will still be hamstrung by an expensive tablet controller. the 360 was $99 on black friday this year. Next year both systems could easily be $99 to $149 all season, period- with no slowdown in third party support. 2014 is a monster year for the PS360.
freenudemacusers
Member
plus the ps3/xbox360 will be much cheaper and have a substantially larger library.
edit: well fuck you to manmademan <3
I would perhaps agree if it weren't for the fact that they launched the biggest game on the system this month, and historically November of the first full year should be a huge sales month for a console, particularly in the wake of a price reduction.
If Pachter's estimate is correct, they'll have only sold 50k units more than they did in September. Even considering that that was the price drop month, you'd still expect a much larger jump during November, even without SM3DW's launch.
What is momentum if it doesn't translate into sales?
Serious question- what is it? How is it quantifiable and how does it actually help Nintendo?
Dr. Kitty Muffins
Member
Honestly what could they announce that would drastically change their sales? I'm not sure Mario Kart and Smash will do much and they have few known arrows left.
Randolph Freelander
Member
I'm reminded of old SNL skits for President Bush.... the first one... where Dana Carvey as President Bush would routinely include towards the end, as a summary point, "Dan Quayle: Still. Gaining. Acceptance."
Statements about Wii U momentum are sort of like that.
shinra-bansho
Member
Very rarely does a product go from "that thing no one I know has" or "that thing no one seems to want" or in the case of gaming systems in particular "that thing that has no games I want" to being "that thing I want to buy."
I've posted this before, but the Wii U lacks of positive network effects in an industry highly dependent upon them and that is severely hurting it (in addition to a myriad of other problems). And such a situation is self-perpetuating.
The only redress Nintendo seems to have is to release more of their first party properties and/or hope something takes off. But I can't see that being a circuit breaker.
The system is ultimately less valuable to the end user, and Nintendo won't or can't (considering it would probably require substantial losses) reduce the price of the system to the point where the value proposition becomes tenable.
I've posted this before, but the Wii U lacks of positive network effects in an industry highly dependent upon them and that is severely hurting it (in addition to a myriad of other problems). And such a situation is self-perpetuating.
The only redress Nintendo seems to have is to release more of their first party properties and/or hope something takes off. But I can't see that being a circuit breaker.
The system is ultimately less valuable to the end user, and Nintendo won't or can't (considering it would probably require substantial losses) reduce the price of the system to the point where the value proposition becomes tenable.
It's not like the Xbone and PS4 are just some temporary storms Nintendo needs to weather, though. They're here for the long haul and they're going to suck the life out of the Wii U.
Manmademan
Member
Is it really plausible that there's a substantial audience waiting in the wings for Smash or Mario Kart, that's totally ignored New Super mario brothers U, Super luigi U, Super Mario 3D world, Pikmin 3, Wind Waker HD, AND a price drop? That are literally waiting for the day those games hit shelves before they say "NOW is when I'll drop $350?"
It's the literal definition of buying a system just to play one game (because really, nintendo doesn't have very much else that's a known quantity that could still be coming) and as we know that doesn't happen all that often.
Imperfected
Member
It gets the system talked about, which is a plus.
I don't think the impact has been that measurable, unfortunately. The majority of the "buzz" has been with old (venerable, decrepit, archaic) media like newspapers and enthusiast media like gaming websites, which unfortunately are not the places where Nintendo really needs to be increasing their visibility.
Unfortunately, the late night talk show circuit, the nightly news programs, and the general pop-culture zeitgeist has not taken up the torch. I think it's pretty telling that you've got Colbert hugging a PS4 and Kimmel playing one with Ice-T on live television, but in a huge three-part event dedicated to the "console war" on South Park the Wii-U didn't even merit a mention once, not even for the only-too-obvious throwaway gag. (Butters declares he wants a Wii-U during the PS4/XB1 stand-off and Cartman says, "Goddamnit, Butters." Scene transition. Shit writes itself.)
The "hype" hasn't gotten in even close proximity to the general public. They don't hate the system, they aren't even indifferent to it at this point, to most people it simply does not exist and is not part of the conversation when discussing games and gifts.
Regarding the 360/ps3 I think that will cut more into the X1 sales then the wiiu. To many X1 games are on the 360 which does not apply to the wiiu.
In regards to momentum, what I mean is that monthly sales in 2014 will be in a general uptrend overall and be better then 2013. This is due to more games and more awareness, and those 2 factors are increasing and gaining more momentum themselves (more games and more awareness).
In regards to momentum, what I mean is that monthly sales in 2014 will be in a general uptrend overall and be better then 2013. This is due to more games and more awareness, and those 2 factors are increasing and gaining more momentum themselves (more games and more awareness).
CoffeeJanitor
Member
It's only going to get worse.
freenudemacusers
Member
They were also storms forecasted several months if not years in advance. Stand outside naked in a storm you saw coming miles away, will anyone be surprised if you get wet?
Randolph Freelander
Member
I don't believe so. I think Smash and Mario and other titles are already impacting the demand curve, have been since day one, and will continue to do so for as long as the Wii U lives. I don't believe there will be a tidal change when one or both of these games release. Could there be a subtle swell? Perhaps, but I just don't see them having the impact that (some) Nintendo fans believe they will.
Well for one thing it creates awareness. Mario and the current available games may not justify a purchase, but gains in awareness is a start for a product still misidentified.
The PS3 sort of fits into those categories.
Manmademan
Member
there is 100% chance that every single Xbone owner buying in at launch already owns a 360. these are the hardcore fans buying in at $500, not the casual audience. These people are looking for a significant upgrade over what they already own. 360's, even at $99 will have no impact on Xbone sales.
Not if much of that talk is negative.
Will have to see what happens. Nintendo will continue to focus on games that are exclusive to them. Just a steady stream. Again for them this about recovery not about winning at this point.
As I have said before I think the X1 is going to have problems. I think the numbers are going to show that more and more. Direct competition with the PS4, a lack of real exclusive games (more of an issue since the 360 will also get many of the same multiplats), a high price tag, etc.
Negative talk about Mario? Rather the opposite, enough for many outlets to suggest buying the Wii U over the other consoles this holiday season.
Yep. Totally agree. They had plenty of time to prepare for this, but basically squandered it, with poor support, an apparently unappealing product, and abysmal marketing.
It's not like Nintendo just "survives" the launches of PS4/Xbone and that's it. Those two systems are a permanent presence that will only gain momentum from here on out.
What does the 1 have to do with this? It sold totally fine for a console in 2014; the PS4 might (likely) beat it, but its fine, and it has Titanfall and Halo coming.
Nintendo just launched its "Halo"- and now what.
The thing is, its starting to look like a big chunk of 360 owners are jumping ship to the ps4 or holding on to their 360 and waiting to upgrade. The longer the intital hardcore 360 heads wait the more likely I feel they will be to switch camps to sony. There is simply more value their for the 360 head. The X1 has a poor value proposition. (poorer tech, higher price, lack of real exclusives, etc)
There are many 360 owners who are not hardcore but not casual either and these are the bulk that are not biting onto the X1 which is why we are seeing lower demand/sales from the numbers and posts.
DoYouEvenLift?
Banned
Kind of... but the feeling I always got was that people wanted a ps3, but didn't want to pay $600 for it. I think if it had launched at $399 it would have won this generation.
On the flip side, I don't get the impression that people want a Wii U really. If the price just royalty bottomed out people would buy it, but I think there's a fundamental lack of demand.
Imperfected
Member
There's something much worse than everyone talking bad about your product: no one ever talking about your product at all. I think Microsoft's adequately displayed that by coming into this sales season with overwhelmingly, almost awe-inspiringly negative PR and still managing to put up respectable sales numbers.
I honestly don't think the Wii-U has reached even 20% awareness among the target demographic Nintendo was trying to sell to. At this point a crazed vagrant muttering obscenities about a Wii-U on the bus might actually qualify as a net positive for them in terms of public perception.
Manmademan
Member
It really doesn't. The PS3's worst month ever was 240k, in february 2007. The wiiU would KILL to have numbers like that. The Ps3 was getting rocked by the 360 (and the wii) but it wasn't putting up Saturn and Dreamcast level numbers.
The PS3 had one big issue, and that was cost. Sony revamped the system and stripped out BC and all unnecessary parts to make sure it was cost competitive as soon as possible, fixing the issue.
The WiiU can't go this route without dropping the tablet controller outright- at which point it just becomes a PS360 with a weak library and terrible online infrastructure. Even if it COULD, cost isn't even the issue. at $199, the WiiU is still left with virtually no third party support, confusing marketing/branding, and tech that will be drastically behind everything else in the market when the HD twins are finally off shelves in two years. It's a system without a viable future, now that the casual audience nintendo was banking on has vanished.
Throughout 2014, PS4/Xbone will have steady third-party support - and more importantly - steady ethusiast coverage of the biggest games. They're going to suck even more attention away from Nintendo.
You see signs for hope; I see signs of continued decay, because - for whatever "momentum" the Wii U has gained from USA Today talking about SM3DW this holiday season - the other two only get greater momentum and coverage from here on out.
Randolph Freelander
Member
Sure you don't want to buy, I don't know, 10? And maybe take some friends with you?
Steve Youngblood
Member
Yeah. It needs a title that clicks with people and really demonstrates why people should want the Wii U and embrace the GamePad. And if stuff like NintendoLand with its asynchronous multiplayer ideas couldn't do it, or stuff like ZombiU with its two screen interface couldn't capture people's imaginations, or every other game offering the flexibility of off-TV play couldn't win people over, I'm not sure what can.
There's always room for innovation in pure software terms, so anything can happen. But I'm pretty skeptical of the prospect of them having a high probability of easily tapping into some overlooked benefit of the GamePad that suddenly causes the device to resonate with people. I feel like we've seen the bulk of what it can do, and the current apathy is pretty alarming.
Randolph Freelander
Member
I agree with your overall point. However, PS3 dipped below 100K I want to say in March or April of 07, but it didn't stay there. Wii U stayed there.
Manmademan
Member
great commentary.
I'll buy one out of pity when it hits sub 200
TC McQueen
Member
Don't forget the other option - jumping to PC. That's what I did, even before the console transition happened.
Wolfgang Jr
Banned
I certainly would. If they announced the Nintendo Ultimate next year with incredible specs & Wii U Pro controller as standard controller, I'd be lining up like Apple fanboys do for the latest iPhone.
Maidenpool?
Member
metalslimer
Member
For people expecting a recovery, it seems like the thought is that once the price goes down there will be a large number of people ready to hop on to play NIntendo games, but what evidence of that do we have. The Wii? That obviously was an anomaly, so unless Nintendo creates the next Wii Sports (which seems unlikely this far into the system although they did do with Pokemon on the Gameboy) I just wonder exactly how many people are fans of Nintendo and just waiting to take the dive.For all the trolling that people did to the Wii, there was some truth in what the perception was.
Of course I think the Gamepad is one of the worst Nintendo USPs besides 3D and at least that could be turned off. I would support a removal of the gamepad only because it seems to be having a negative impact on the system rather than positive or neutral.
Of course I think the Gamepad is one of the worst Nintendo USPs besides 3D and at least that could be turned off. I would support a removal of the gamepad only because it seems to be having a negative impact on the system rather than positive or neutral.
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