shinra-bansho
Member
And then another year. And then another year. The Wii U is just hitting its stride.
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Wii U US November Sales Estimated at 149K by Pachter
- Thread starter Horse Armour
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Something I've learned after reading these sales threads on NeoGAF is that people love seeing "trends" and make conclusions based on trends, and businesses love to see trends of increasing sales. Each Nintendo game released ideally would have showed a trend of a more active userbase after each title's release, as well as an increasing baseline of hardware sales as the library increased in size. I totally don't blame EA or any publisher who ceased support, Ubisoft has stuck around the longest and so they have many examples of what to expect regarding sales of their games on the WiiU platform. We've seen the sales of third party games on the WiiU and there hasn't been any sort of trending upward in their sales, so it would take special intervention from Nintendo to make it worth a third party's efforts, because the userbase sure isn't making the case.
HP did find a way to make people care about the Touchpad, eventually!
opticalmace
Member
It's gaining momentum!
Randolph Freelander
Member
Dan Quayle.
I would recommend New Super Luigi U as well if you're into Mario games. I don't like the NSMB series, but this game is basically what all of those other ones should have been. It's extremely challenging and the levels are short and imaginative. It really feels a lot more like a DKC game than a Mario game.
I was just about to say the exact same thing. I would guess 2 million of that 4 million would pick up the next console. No way the biggest fans are going to miss out on a Nintendo console even if they do feel burned. Release it with a game like the next Zelda and problem mostly solved. Not saying it is going to happen, I don't think it will because I see Nintendo riding denial for the next three years (Reggie just said they are comfortable at VGX after all). But, I think they would be just fine if they did it.
Manmademan
Member
The wiiU is tracking to hit somewhere between 10 and 12 million lifetime right now, and this was in a year where it had the "next gen" field to itself, and with the strongest third party support it will have, ever. It now has to triple it's sales rate against stronger competition, and literally zero third party support.
The EU and JP are completely done with it. EU sales were NEGATIVE for an entire quarter. NEGATIVE. It's being outsold in JP by the Vita.
30-35 million is completely, totally, utterly impossible. Right now GAF consensus (if I may speak for it) seems to be that gamecube levels of 20 million are the upper range for the console, but personally I don't even see how that's happening.
Listen I'm not saying the WiiU is going to outsell either Ps4 or Xbone. But Marketing can help get the console into some parents minds, Nintendo isn't do much if any at all right now so what can it hurt?
Caffeine
Member
this year was shit i acknowledge this but to not even let it go through this christmas and see how it performs from here and what nintendo does in the future with it.
i think you guys are selling it short. if it performs bad next year to january 2015 then we have a titanic.
Father_Brain
Banned
I agree. While I don't think that Wii U's complete, official discontinuation is likely to happen as early as next year, this is a pretty piss-poor argument against it.
And even if they did stay in the hardware business, they'd have to start tapering off first-party Wii U support in 2015, or even late next year, in order to prepare for the next console, so Wii U owners are going to get screwed regardless. But the games that have been announced and shown will still ship on Wii U, almost certainly... Zelda remains to be seen, though.
ViewtifulJC
Banned
No, its doing that just fine on its own
Caffeine
Member
it was overshadowed this whole year with news of ps4 and x1 most of the consumers entering stores still think its just a tablet accessory for their wii and asking why wii u games dont work on their wii after purchasing them.
Aquamarine
Member
Third parties won't.
Why do you think this thread has so many posts...even though it's just predictions from one analyst?
It's because November 2013 and December 2013 NPD sales are major catalysts for the system's future.
Iwata has specifically said that Nintendo will evaluate the Wii U's future based on Holiday 2013 sales. I don't doubt that the third-parties that still support the Wii U (Ubisoft, Activision, etc.) are watching the holiday sales of the Wii U versions for their games very closely.
shinra-bansho
Member
The "wait 3 months" "wait 6 months" "wait another year" refrain is tiresome.
It's perfectly acceptable to make assessment of a current situation based on current and past information.
The Wii U is already a failure of a product.
That assessment may or may not change, as new information eventuates.
If the Wii U magically sells a million units in November to everyone's surprise, or the price is suddenly cut to $99, or a massive breakout hit captures the mainstream imagination, for instance.
But there's nothing wrong with examining the situation as it is now.
i don't get what changes between this year and next. opinion is only going to get more entrenched. i agree that smash and mario kart are bigger deals than 3d mario, but if we're not seeing signs of life in november or december, we won't see them at all. it'll be february and the system will be under 50k and it'll be waiting for mario kart, or a price drop, or decoupling the gamepad from the system. the changes need to happen soon and quickly. the status quo is probably not doing it (we know it definitely isn't in japan and the uk).
Manmademan
Member
November is typically as strong or stronger than december, and rumors (from pachter, admittedly, but still rumors) put the system at 150K for the entire month. If that's even remotely close to accurate- hell, if it's even off by 50% nintendo is ROYALLY fucked. you cannot put up numbers that bad during the holiday season and stay viable. Retail will simply cease carrying it.
Maidenpool?
Member
If I'm Nintendo, I'm not dipping into my savings to market the Wii U anymore than I have been. People know what the Wii U is. That is the problem. They know what it is... and they also know what the Ps4 and Xbone are... and they have each made the calculated, conscious decision to take their business to Sony and Microsoft.
you have it backwards. december is typically way stronger than november.
Randolph Freelander
Member
In years past, November has been 2-3x October (or thereabouts) and December has been 2x December. In recent years, extended Black Friday shopping and megadeals have tilted the balance to where more sales happen in November (increasing the multiplier from October) and less (comparatively) in December, decreasing that multiplier.
Regardless, if November isn't good, December won't be.
Regardless, if November isn't good, December won't be.
The fact is, the point of releasing a year early is to overshadow the competition. The fact that the competition overshadowed it before the PS4 and Xbox One ever released something really says something. Now that both the PS4 and Xbox One are released, the Wii U is going to be overshadowed even more.
People do indeed think it's a tablet accessory en masse, at the same time I don't see that changing at all at this point. Nintendo needs to make new hardware within the next 2 years or get out of home consoles.
Caffeine
Member
am incorrect for thinking that december is a stronger month ? i have had 3 people tell me november is stronger yet how could it even compete with 2 major console launches and nintendo barley marketing the device.
yes there were barely any black friday deals i am acknowledging changes must be made.
Manmademan
Member
I thought that changed recently, with black friday becoming a bigger thing and creeping into a 4 day sales marathon.
too tired to do the research on this one now though. it's late on the E.C.
They've already dipped into that fund to create it, killing it prematurely would cause more problems then good.
Spending a couple of million on advertising is not going to break the bank. They probably recoup cost with 3DS software sales alone.
And how is the Wii U's situation going to change next year?
Nintendo has barely done anything to market the system or fix previous misconceptions.
And the PS4/Xbone actually exist now and will have all eyes focused on their big title transitions to this generation.
There will still be overshadowing and excitement on those fronts.
The PS4/Xbone don't just disappear; now they become real, viable threats to any attempt on Nintendo's part to gain mindshare.
december 2012
360 - 1400K
3DS - 1250K
PS3 - 625K
WII - 475K
WIU - 460K
PSV - 225K
november 2012
Xbox 360 = 1260K
PS3 = 760K
3DS = 540K
Wii U = 425K
Wii = 420K
PSV = 220K
i guess you're right about them evening out (3ds got a pretty nice multiplier though). wonder what drove the ps3 in november.
Caffeine
Member
this is exactly what i was thinking ^ the bank to make a new system now that they probably have only started planning stages on would be a big check to write out compared to a marketing campaign.
this is what needs to be changed^
Basically yeah. The only way to spin the PS3 as a positive for Sony's business is in terms of positioning for the PS4. Sony had to learn some lessons and work hard to get the PS3 going, and that effort (mostly in acquiring talented studios and the creation of PS+) will continue to pay off for them in the future. I think the feeling from many people is that they want the WiiU to do the same thing to Nintendo. I suppose we could look at the Wii as an example of Nintendo doing just that in the past, in response to the relative failure of the GameCube. Watching how Nintendo plays this out is going to be very interesting.
plutoknight
Member
Normally I'd be worried, but it seems like Nintendo is trying to take December by storm by partnering with retailers and advertising (A LOT).
If I have to see that damned SM3DW Walmart ad again, I might scream.
If I have to see that damned SM3DW Walmart ad again, I might scream.
Pretty much. If Mario couldn't do it against.. Knack KZ? Forza and Ryse? How the hell is Smash or whatevers coming going to fare against fucking Halo, Destiny, COD, etc, etc, etc.
Seriously! Next year we'll probably have:
Witcher 3
Metal Gear Solid 5
Fallout 4
Uncharted 4
etc, etc, etc
Huge, meaty blockbusters on a whole different level of immersion and with it gameplay possibilities.
Wouldn't surprise me if Retro already finished DKC and Nintendo just moved it to Q1 next year because they're going to delay their games that should have been out at launch. Mario Kart & Smash.
I think marketing would help, but it's not the answer. If the Wii U's problems were that easily solved the people that get paid to make those decisions would be marketing the heck out of the Wii U.
Edited for post above:
I would say no to Fallout 4 next year. Unless it is announced in the next 20 days, I would have serious doubts to the game hitting 2014. It says a lot they are not even prepared to speak of it as of yet.
Edited for post above:
I would say no to Fallout 4 next year. Unless it is announced in the next 20 days, I would have serious doubts to the game hitting 2014. It says a lot they are not even prepared to speak of it as of yet.
Moosehole
Member
I love how people think Nintendo could just shit out a new console on par with PS4/XB1 in another two years. That just isn't possible. Not to mention it would take them another few years to get Nintendo Network even close to the level of PSN/XBL just in terms of basic features.
The Wii U is selling terribly. But they will stick with it for at least three more years because they have no other choice.
The Wii U is selling terribly. But they will stick with it for at least three more years because they have no other choice.
So the PS4 vs XBox One sales thread using Pachter's predictions is at 7 pages(and features a good chunk of Wii U's sales discussion), and this thread already has 14 pages despite it being made afterwards and is one console.
This is getting into meta territory, but man, that's crazy. Just what the heck is everyone yelling about in this thread that takes over 14 pages to say when we already have at least half a dozen threads discussing Wii U's trajectory in this month alone?
This is getting into meta territory, but man, that's crazy. Just what the heck is everyone yelling about in this thread that takes over 14 pages to say when we already have at least half a dozen threads discussing Wii U's trajectory in this month alone?
Crash Station
Member
I do agree that we should probably wait until Thursday before spouting "doomed!" and what not. After that, go nuts. I'm more curious to know how Pachter got to that number. If it's just based on the information that all of us have, then I'm relatively confident it's not that low.
Edit: I did not realize Harker commented. Whelp....
Edit: I did not realize Harker commented. Whelp....
Randolph Freelander
Member
My marketing professors in college would hate some of you right now. Misusing the term. A few of them are rolling over in their graves, for crying out loud. And they're not even dead.
Probably this Black Friday deal
Imperfected
Member
These new consoles are clearly just fads that everyone is going to grow tired of and forget about after a year. I mean, it's not like they're going to stick around and continuing selling units for a decade or something ridiculous like that, right?
And it's not like in two years the vast majority of the market is already going to be locked into paid subscriptions for one device or the other, and have tons of DLC/fully digital games downloaded that keep them locked into those console ecosystems and make them increasingly reluctant to switch their "console of choice", or like the amount of software available for those consoles is going to increase dramatically and suck up more of the disposable income of their users, making them more and more reluctant to pick up an "off-console" for one or two games they have passing interest in.
It's not like this was some kind of vitally important timing window for establishing the system while its competitors were on shaky ground, not only with consumers and the general public, but with increasingly wary third parties and weary investors. Just another month trucking along, selling what can be sold, eating that elephant one bite at a time.
GetemMa
Member
LOL.
I am willing to bet Uncharted 4 is a clunky 3rd person action game just like the last 3.
Come now GAF, there is plenty to say about Nintendo vs. Competition but going the "the new experiences are over here" route is laughable.
This gen will be a slightly prettier version of last gen. Get ready for it.
Those PS4/xB1numbers aren't shocking, people could have seen that coming. They're awesome and solid launches respectivley.
If these numbers are true, thats catastrophic. People knew it was bad... but this is another level
Holy shit this. This is like the exact opposite with the Nintendo and the Wii brand which Nintendo squandered and still thought it was a good idea to keep the brand name for another console.
Caffeine
Member
if it gets bundles + a hefty price drop to $200 + a marketing campaign and all the first/second party games coming next year and the consumers reacted positively and then continued such a momentum for the next 6 years you dont think it would come anywhere close to 30 million ?
Manmademan
Member
It actually is. The PS360 are generally built using mid range off the shelf parts, and not exactly cutting edge. It isn't 2000 anymore- you can build a better machine than a PS4 and ESPECIALLY an xbox one by spending less than $1000, retail.
The OG Xbox was literally a pentium 3 in a funny looking case with no modifications thrown together in a couple of years. Nintendo could easily do the same and outperform the PS4/Xbone by a wide ass margin in 2016, if they were inclined to do it.
I predict that by the year 2019 the Wii U will hit its stride. People just need to wait until then to see. If it doesn't hit it by 2019, then I'll agree that Nintendo should drop the console.
/s
Steve Youngblood
Member
That's a lot of ifs there.
Look Reggie, last year there are no PS4 and Xbone in the market. But this time there is. People want new stuff, and they will get that instead of an old console which they probably no idea what it is about.
They can even release Kart or Smash and all it'll do is make current wiiu owners buy it.
Third parties are already moving on, some are not even making a ps3/360 port even with that userbase.
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