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Wii U US November Sales Estimated at 149K by Pachter
- Thread starter Horse Armour
- Start date
- Status
I realise they're not doing great with the Wii U, but why jump to conclusions until the numbers are released?
Going third party or killing off the system early as people have suggested would hurt them further. That's the kind of shit I was referring to, I just didn't specify.
Freezie KO
Banned
It still needs games. I think it could've sold at $300 with the right games.
Ultimately software moves hardware. Some people scoffed at Wii at $250 with its graphics, but it sold. The right game or games will move hardware. Wii U never had that. If they released a hybrid but all they did was make another NSMB game for it, then there's no value there.
Wii U probably would've given a different impression if it launched at $200, but the Wii brand (and even Nintendo's console brand) is tainted. It's an untrustworthy brand.
People can't trust there will third party games. They can't even trust that Nintendo will support it due to droughts and the last two years of Wii. They can't trust Nintendo will deliver innovative software. They can just trust that eventually you'll see Nintendo's roster. We're now seeing what that's worth to the greater public.
Of course where graphics (and power) come in is in the console's inability to get the third-party games. That's what matters. Games are first.
Ideally, a hybrid or unified software platform would help alleviate droughts and hopefully spur their teams to work on more creative software, because they don't have to trade off on console/handheld/console/handheld franchises. And Nintendo's handheld division isn't a toxic brand like the Wii. People can trust there will actually be games there. And that's what it's all about.
Could be better, could be worse. But if 149k is true for November where Nintendo is typically strong, something has to change.
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Yeah. Something like this.
The thing is even if this specific number is wrong, we don't actually need it to come to the same conclusion everyone is discussing in this topic.
And with John Harker saying things on dire for Nov as well, it's a little more than conjecture. Things are just well and truly awful. We're all pretty fearful for Nintendo because most of us love them and what they have to offer.
TAS
Member
Seems impossibly low. I hope Pachter is way off to illustrate what a tool he is. Worst case scenario, if Wii U has a disastrous holiday I think Nintendo has no choice but to drop the Gamepad, rename the console to Wii2 and slash the price to $199. Either that or release a new console in 2-3 years.
Again, even if the numbers are doubled or even tripled, they are still down-right terrible. Unless you have solid arguments why Pachter's numbers are completely off base, drawing conclusions from this information is not so crazy.
I want the Wii U to succeed, I really do, but there is no point to wait for official numbers if they are in the same ball park.
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
RIP in peace. Just a bad number. Hope they can turn it around
Nah, I can see a shorter lifecycle for the Wii U, but I don't see them abandoning it anytime soon. I mean, they can release a console next year that would be just as powerful or even more powerful than the PS4, but they still need to develop games for it and sort out third party relationships. What it lacks are games and brand awareness. A new console means nothing without games. What they need to do with the Wii U is a revision and rebranding. PS3 Slim and Xbox 360 Slim did wonders for Sony/MS.
Mauricio_Magus
Banned
I'm glad you aren't turned off by the insanity of this thread(even if some points are totally valid, others are just not)
There are already enough games to warrant a purchase, but of course it all depends of what you want to play. I just hope they don't rush Mario Kart and/or Smash for the sake of releasing them early.
I don't think that sales will be as low as Pachter is predicting (he's always so kind with Nintendo 
).
Vita last year sold 200k and WiiU has always performed slightly better than Vita in the US. There's no reason to believe that it will perform worse with the impact of bundles and key games like Mario. Sub 200k sales would be an epic defeat for Nintendo..like ''discontinue this product right now''.
I'm expecting sales around 350k, still a bomba but not an unprecedented sub Dreamcast level of failure.
).Vita last year sold 200k and WiiU has always performed slightly better than Vita in the US. There's no reason to believe that it will perform worse with the impact of bundles and key games like Mario. Sub 200k sales would be an epic defeat for Nintendo..like ''discontinue this product right now''.
I'm expecting sales around 350k, still a bomba but not an unprecedented sub Dreamcast level of failure.
Yup, they were very short sighted and I'm sure very glad with themselves when the Wii went orbital and then they just sat on their arses for a few years too long.
Yup, that's how I feel. Nintendo are still acting like they can tease and string us along. Even when they have a failing system that's not selling they won't come out and go "Yup, Metroid's coming. Zelda too. We don't have much but here's some screenshots or concept art". Nope, he wears a pin and teases while trying to talk up a fucking ape with a beard and a walking stick as a great new thing.
i warned you all the stuff i've been seeing the past two months haven't been gud.
edit: actually, i'm not making any 'guesses', so don't ask
Bad as in third parties are leaving? Bad as in sales are going down, down down again this month? Bad as in what you have seen/heard Nintendo are making (Wii Music HD)?
Wow, that's so sad to see. Has there been any other console with a negative LTD month-to-month?
AstroNut325
Member
In this day and age I'm sure Nintendo knows how many consoles are sold on a day-to-day basis worldwide within +/- 3-5%. Most devices these days broadcast a "activation" signal to their motherships. It's too bad that info is likely NOT to be released until quarterly earnings.
I get where posts like this are coming from. But however close Pachter's estimations are, this is not reality, dude. This is an analysts predictions. You're not discussing reality.
Y'all need to slow down.
Steve Youngblood
Member
I don't think there's any reason to assume that Pachter's numbers are preposterously low, and that sales will be 5 times what he's predicting. However, I do think that there's a difference in the reactions when you consider whether the sales are sub-par, objectively bad, terrible, or abysmal. If sales are double 150K and end up at 300K, that's obviously still not good and the platform will obviously still be in a lot of trouble. But if it actually is closer to 150K than 300K? It becomes almost impossible to assume that there's any chance of a turnaround (disregarding the people who think it's already impossible).
Relaxed Muscle
Member
As Aquamarine has said, even with the worst Patcher track record in hand, those numbers are REALLY low.
Killing the Wii U or going third party aren't clearly solutions. But Nintendo and Iwata really needs to radically change their path and "releasing more Mario games" is not a solution either, as it shows on the japanese release of Mario 3D World.
There some changes and actions that should happened years ago that is really hurting them as of now.
I don't think that sales will be as low as Pachter is predicting (he's always so kind with Nintendo
Vita last year sold 200k and WiiU has always performed slightly better than Vita in the US. There's no reason to believe that it will perform worse with the impact of bundles and key games like Mario. Sub 200k sales would be an epic defeat for Nintendo..like ''discontinue this product right now''.
I'm expecting sales around 350k, still a bomba but not an unprecedented sub Dreamcast level of failure.
It's possible the Wii U has been totally overshadowed by the release of the PS4 and XO. And stores barely having any Wii U/games on the shelves aren't helping at all. People aren't gonna buy something when they can't see it or don't know it exists.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
With a new Mario game and bundles, that sales prediction would be devastating if it came true.
I honestly don't see that big of a difference between these numbers. I'm not predicting the furture of this console, let alone the future of the company based on these figures. I'm not talking about turn around or any of that sort. I'm talking about the performance of the Wii U in november. If it is 300K I assure you my reaction would have remained the same.
Aquamarine
Member
Sell-through (PAL's largest territories):
1) France: ~175,000 (as of mid-November 2013)
2) Germany: ~160,000 (as of September 30th, 2013) (presumably around 180,000 as of November 2013)
3) U.K.: ~152,000 (as of mid-November 2013)
I don't have any data for Australia / New Zealand, but presumably they would be around 100K.
You mean quarter-to-quarter.
And no, not for consoles that are in their prime...that I'm aware of.
Now of course, when a console is dead / ancient, you see it once in a while.
As has been said, double Pachter's estimate and they are still in a Jurrassic Park sized pile of doodoo.
The money. By the time they actually need to spend that money, it's already over. That's last ditch effort hail mary pass time. That 10 billion will disappear like Brewster's Millions once it comes to that.
It's easy to say "act smart", but they haven't acted smart in years. "If they do everything right, everything will be fine" isn't a valid argument anyway.
This made me lol hard.
Wow, if it's under 300k I don't even...
Never thought it would be this bad before launch, I mean, it might crawl it's way up to 15 million or so but I can't see the Wii U going any higher than that. It'll be GC'ed by late 2016 IMO.
If they get their next system right it could change everything but that's one hell of a big IF, they need to be planning this shit, finding out what developers would want changed from the PS4/XB1 and implementing it. Make a system kinda like the Wii U is to the HD twins, very easy to port PS4/XB1 titles over and have enough power to give it a little boost. Assuming Nintendo have the right software there at lunch (And more balanced software, they need more than Japan, there's a reason why the N64 did so well in the U.S. compared to Japan IIRC) and keep that momentum up with regular software from them, market the thing properly and get the price right, I don't see why 3rd parties wouldn't jump on. Unless 3rd party titles underperform because people are just buying it on their PS4's/XB1's instead, well, then there's a bigger problem at hand...
Never thought it would be this bad before launch, I mean, it might crawl it's way up to 15 million or so but I can't see the Wii U going any higher than that. It'll be GC'ed by late 2016 IMO.
If they get their next system right it could change everything but that's one hell of a big IF, they need to be planning this shit, finding out what developers would want changed from the PS4/XB1 and implementing it. Make a system kinda like the Wii U is to the HD twins, very easy to port PS4/XB1 titles over and have enough power to give it a little boost. Assuming Nintendo have the right software there at lunch (And more balanced software, they need more than Japan, there's a reason why the N64 did so well in the U.S. compared to Japan IIRC) and keep that momentum up with regular software from them, market the thing properly and get the price right, I don't see why 3rd parties wouldn't jump on. Unless 3rd party titles underperform because people are just buying it on their PS4's/XB1's instead, well, then there's a bigger problem at hand...
Since Pach's methods are far, far, far less reliable than NPD's, as he's probably only asking less than a handful of stores how their sales are, yet made you know, decent predictions...I can only imagine he asked whatever few store owners he usually does about their sales numbers and they were dire. "We didn't sell shit"
AHA-Lambda
Member
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
I think 150k vs. 300k is a huge difference in all honesty... I'm mostly honing in on the Dreamcast and PS3 numbers. 150k would be worse than the Dreamcast in its worst year and even worse than the dead Vita. 300k is better than the Dreamcast, but still worse than the PS3's 2nd year (378K). Of course it's fairly bad all around, but did anyone really think it would sell 8-10 times its October sales with 2 new console launches? Just saying...
Plus I'm kind of just tired of the large number of people whose post essentially is "good riddance", but I guess this is the internet.
Plus I'm kind of just tired of the large number of people whose post essentially is "good riddance", but I guess this is the internet.
Freezie KO
Banned
The handling of Nintendo's warchest is one of the biggest disappointments of Iwata's reign.
Rather than taking those Wii profits and reinvesting into the company, taking note of droughts, expanding studios, buying new ones, preparing for HD development, and building online infrastructure, what did he do? He just sat on it.
It'll be harder now to completely reverse course than it would've to keep momentum going. It's just inertia.
Viewed in isolation, yeah perhaps it comes close to PS3's second year, but PS3 never did as bad as the Wii U in the months leading up to November.
shinra-bansho
Member
12 page thread?
Err... why don't people wait a few days for the actual numbers to freak out? Although GAF will probably 404.
Err... why don't people wait a few days for the actual numbers to freak out? Although GAF will probably 404.
Is this your first day on the internets?
Tawney Bomb
Member
I really hope Nintendo is able to turn everything around, I've been considering getting a Wii U, but honestly there are only a handful of games on it I want and I'm not too sure what's coming in the future. Plus $300 is off putting, at $250, I'd probably bite.
Steve Youngblood
Member
Well, I agree. It's not a big difference in terms of changing the perception if the question is "did it sell well or did it sell poorly?" Even 300K is still a poor figure. But I do think it mattesr in terms of assessing just how dire the situation truly is.
Captain Smoker
Member
It's at 175.000 units in France (as of mid-November 2013).
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=725491
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
True, but didn't Sony bleed money in order to keep it even at that state? At least so far, I haven't seen Nintendo do too much yet. If Nintendo had seen the bad sales earlier this year, and then started money-hatting titles, when would we honestly start hearing about the results of that?
Aquamarine
Member
Thank you! I'm not as up-to-date with European sales as I am with USA / Japanese sales.
I bought one finally at $199 for the Mario bundle when the NEX had $199 price on their Christmas flier. I wasn't going to budge towards a Nintendo console at a price higher than that.
Not sure what they were smoking when they thought a $350 console would sell, and their $300 price drop is still out of reach of what their 100+ million Wii owner crowd wants to pay.
Nintendo is priced to sell at $200. Wii got away with $250 so maybe at $250 it would be sellable.
But not $300 and certainly not $350.
Not sure what they were smoking when they thought a $350 console would sell, and their $300 price drop is still out of reach of what their 100+ million Wii owner crowd wants to pay.
Nintendo is priced to sell at $200. Wii got away with $250 so maybe at $250 it would be sellable.
But not $300 and certainly not $350.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
So about 25k units in 4 months? Whee...
shinra-bansho
Member
It just seems a bit ridiculous even for internet standards.
Is there anything of substance in these 12 pages worth reading though?
I guess on topic if Pachter's prediction does come to pass then it will be the worst performance of a home console essentially ever - barring basically end of life systems like 2006 GameCube and 2010 PS2. So I fully expect meltdowns, I just thought it would happen on Thursday/Friday.
The Wii could have easily sold as well as it did at $300 and maaaaybe at $350 though. That thing was a beast, and Nintendo didn't know how to play it correctly.
Let's make a deal then, come thursday when the NPD thread goes live, I'll still whine and complain the entire way through and you guys do the assessing, just don't ban me
Sony's problems all arose from the hardware Kutaragi stuck in the box. Diodes weren't ready and were expensive. Custom CPU. Nvidia, known for trying to wring every penny out of customers, provided the GPU.
Demand was there but muted by the high price Sony had to charge to try to recoup costs. Otherwise, the demand was there despite being a year late to the party.
I cannot say the same about Nintendo's machine. I mean, if the Wii U as is launched at $250, would it have done better?
What if it were the same price but with a much better line-up of games in the first year?
What if it was $250 AND had the better line-up?
Like the gamecube, it could very well have been a failure anyway. Meaning, Nintendo might be done in the traditional console market and nothing they did would have significantly altered the current sales situation.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
The problem with the anecdotes of the WiiU being sold out is that retail inventory is not a one way street. Nintendo can't just send retailers thousands of consoles, the retailers have to purchase inventory in order to sell inventory. It is hard to say what retailer's outlook on WiiU was this holiday, and if they bought large amounts of inventory or did not have much confidence in the product and only stocked a comparatively smaller amount.
I'm going with the latter as it appears not only are 3rd parties losing interest so too are retailers. The PS4 probably sold more this past Sunday at Best Buy, Target, and other retailers that got a restock than the WiiU will have for the entire month of November and December. Guess we will know soon enough.
I'm going with the latter as it appears not only are 3rd parties losing interest so too are retailers. The PS4 probably sold more this past Sunday at Best Buy, Target, and other retailers that got a restock than the WiiU will have for the entire month of November and December. Guess we will know soon enough.
Pachter is typically within 30%, most off by 75%, and the vast majority of his errors are overestimating how much Wii U sells.
When NPD is released, GAF probably will go down.
To those saying that discontinuing Wii U isn't an option, what makes you think that? Locking into 5 years of losses to keep a 2 million active base content? What of the lost profitability when franchises like Mario, Mario Kart, and Zelda are less known?
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
I guess the data Aquamarine posted is useful, that honestly is about it. She's posted it in other threads I'm pretty sure though.
You know we love Pachter quotes...that's always fun. The fact that its such a dire prediction on such a crucial holiday...we couldn't contain ourselves.
I'm not even wearing pants.
There's nothing stopping us from discussing it now and again on Thursday.
Most of us are assuming he's lowballed a bit, but that's kind of the point. Double his estimates and this console is still hosed.
Captain Smoker
Member
Average sales in Germany for this year are 8.333 units.
So it should've sold 16.000 to 25.000 units in the last two months, depends on the November-performance.
That would put it to 180.000 units in Germany.
That's around 510.000 units for the three biggest markets.
Rest of Europe could be 150.000 to 200.000 units, Australia & New Zealand are a wild card.
Sell-through could be around 800.000 - 850,000 units all in all. (As of November 2013)
shinra-bansho
Member
I wouldn't double his estimate (I'm still predictaguessing sub-200), but my NPD predictions have been off of late. I just didn't expect full on meltdowns and even bannings (I'm going back through the thread now and it's mildly amusing) so early.
Seems a high estimate given the relative performance in those other countries, iirc, the marketshare was a sliver in some compared to the UK, GE and FR.
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