I doubt there will be an upgraded midgen refresh, a die shrink refresh maybe.
What reason do they have to do midgen refreshes?
Lastgen needed refreshes because 4K blew up mid generation and they needed consoles that could actually utilize these 4K TVs.
This gen the consoles are bleeding edge, they already have HDMI 2.1, they are 4K120 capable we havent really seen them sweat heck half(90%) of the first party developers havent actually made nextgen only games.
For Sony the PS4 pro was about player retention. And it helped with PSVR. I think that they had moderate sucess with it. Good sales and players got up to 4 years of games that were better on it( Horizon Zero Dawn, TLOU2...). For Microsoft it was about winning back theirs fans after a disastrous Xbox One launch. They choose to let Sony go 1 year early and be sure to loose all possible sales comparisons with the Pro and put the best console they could. This is really one of the best moves Spencer did.
Now both have this precedent looming over their heads. Can Microsoft allow Sony to go first again ? Can Sony not make a PS5 Pro and be suprised by Microsoft when they do one ?
It is true that few games use the power of the new consoles. But like last generation Sony could use a Pro version to help with PSVR2, and make players that want to go PC to stay longer. And a PS5 Pro would not be too costly and help with Raytracing and make a 4k60 easier for Sony 1rst party teams. They have the PS4 Pro data to know if that move helped them or not after all.
For Microsoft they need the "power" argument in my opinion. And so can't afford to be beaten again if Sony do a PS5 Pro. Is a mid gen refresh a certainty or a necessity? Of course not. But if one does it and the other do not they have all to win and nothing to loose( expect money but right now both are pretty good). Sony had to propose a Gamepass equivalent. So I can see it happen the same way for the mid gen refresh : one does it and the other have to follow.