-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Your predictions for The Big Three at the end of The Next Generation.
- Thread starter Mama Robotnik
- Start date
- Status
Uh huuuuuuh.
Let me reiterate.
I read a couple posts stating Sony is going to be #1 and a whole helluva lot of snide remarks about Microsoft. It's not just this thread but in pretty much anything talking about Xbox or Xbox software.
"Xbox Bros"
"Paying for Xbox Live"
"Xbox not caring about gamers"
Just getting tired of reading that crap all the time. Reading that garbage for the 1000th time followed by people praising how amazing Sony is to their customers makes me want to puke. I'm as excited for The Last of Us as anyone but can we please dial back the constant anti-MS and pro-Sony campaigns as bit? It's cute but obviously not helping Sony at all.
Proelite
Member
Microsoft:
Releases a Windows 8 extremely powerful media box that can replace both your console and your PC for $399-$499. Walled garden. Metro app store. Multiple subscriptions packages for TV, XBL, Office 365 etc. Kinect 2 packed in. Supports mouse and keyboard.
Tens of millions of people buy it thinking that it's a cheap but extremely powerful PC.
Easily market leader, but not the biggest gaming software mover. Only the biggest third parties and the ocassional app store developer make good money.
~75 million install base.
PS4:
Traditional console that makes Sony and third parties decent money. Won't save Sony but won't kill them either. Hardcore console gamers migrate to this platform from Xbox 360 due to free PSN.
~ 50 million install base.
Wii-U:
Gamecube 2. Won't kill Nintendo.
~25 million install base.
Releases a Windows 8 extremely powerful media box that can replace both your console and your PC for $399-$499. Walled garden. Metro app store. Multiple subscriptions packages for TV, XBL, Office 365 etc. Kinect 2 packed in. Supports mouse and keyboard.
Tens of millions of people buy it thinking that it's a cheap but extremely powerful PC.
Easily market leader, but not the biggest gaming software mover. Only the biggest third parties and the ocassional app store developer make good money.
~75 million install base.
PS4:
Traditional console that makes Sony and third parties decent money. Won't save Sony but won't kill them either. Hardcore console gamers migrate to this platform from Xbox 360 due to free PSN.
~ 50 million install base.
Wii-U:
Gamecube 2. Won't kill Nintendo.
~25 million install base.
Silly.Mikey
Banned
You could also replace Sony by Valve and you have the 2 things that gives 90% of the people on neogaf instant boners.
Hey I would love Nintendo or Sony to be at the top instead of MS but I dont see anyone beating MS next gen.
That's because they overpriced it out the gate, it is selling gang busters now. Not to mention how much tech has evolved since the DS's released, phones can play much better games now.
I honestly cannot see why people think the Wii-U will do bad, it has a touch controller(tablets are insanely popular right now), it still has motion controls, and even traditional controls. If it is priced right, and below the competition Nintendo will be swimming in money again. Did I mention Nintendo's 1st party IP's?
I'm surprised out of all the companies people think Microsoft will be on top, when it released a year early, and still got smoked by the Wii. And is barely ahead of a console that launched with soo many issues, let a lone a $500-$600 console. MS won't have the yr advantage nor will it have that much of a price advantage this time around.
The Vita lost before it even launched, it's not competing against the 3DS, it's competing for pocket space. With iPhone's/Android Phones and Tablets, who's gonna get a Vita? Only core gamers who loved the PSP.
And I see all the big 3 still being here, Sony is gonna be fine.
Sony First (Questionable start, strong second year, gets hacked again after beating microsoft)
Microsoft Second (strong first year sales, then dips, modest, MS throws money at wall)
Nintendo Third (mediocre sales throughout)
New (serious) contender enters toward the end of the next generation, possibly Apple.
Microsoft Second (strong first year sales, then dips, modest, MS throws money at wall)
Nintendo Third (mediocre sales throughout)
New (serious) contender enters toward the end of the next generation, possibly Apple.
are people still complaining about sony price entry? one had multiple hd media options and one had no hdmi or hard drive but wanted them to be priced the same? wait for a price drop if its not in your price range. Stop crying
After sony goes out of business things will get interesting. If microsoft buys up sonys liquidated ips they'll have a chance to finally make ground in japan. As long as microsoft doesnt do anything too dumb like focus on kinect they have the largest chance of selling the most next gen.
Nintendo is going to struggle with the wiiU unless they pull some amazing software out of their mystery box. With the exception of some stranglers no one is excited in the console... most dont even know it exists and probably wont care when they find out.
Now if nintendo finds a way to impress, move units and then snatches up the sony stuff they have a chance to be unstopable.
Nintendo is going to struggle with the wiiU unless they pull some amazing software out of their mystery box. With the exception of some stranglers no one is excited in the console... most dont even know it exists and probably wont care when they find out.
Now if nintendo finds a way to impress, move units and then snatches up the sony stuff they have a chance to be unstopable.
Pop-O-Matic
Banned
He is pointing out the fact that you have Sony over Nintendo, which seems pretty insane.
No shit. How many times are "Sony" and "Hardcore" mentioned in the same sentence in this thread alone?
I hope not, because they have been extremely good this gen with the release of an insane amount of quality titles - not only that, but creative titles like Journey and the upcoming Puppeteer.
I think Microsoft is heading to a more Hands-off direction similar to Apple's App Store where they have their store and the games just sort of appear and fill out by themselves.
Nintendo is just gonna keep doing what they're doing. Lets hope that works out.
That was a fine post, well thought-out and neatly structured. While a few of the details are depressing, I fear much of what you said stands a good chance of coming to pass.
In the US? Probably. Worldwide? Don't think so, actually. Outside the US, I don't think the 360 is that popular IIRC.
Most people are saying Sony is going out of the console race here.
This post is pretty delusional, as most people on this thread are saying MS will win next gen.
Even though Nintendo dominated this gen, and Sony beat themselves.
1. Sony
Sony takes the successes they have had late in the console cycle and the investments they made in New IPs and thrive. Their online infrastructure will be even more improved than it is at the end of this year. Sony will continue to not charge for online and launch at the same time as Durango. Microsoft's focus on advertisements and monetizing features that are free on every other set top box will have them linger behind a world wide selling system in the PS4
2. Microsoft
Microsoft will focus on improving online feature in their device so that their vision of the window into the living room will come to fruition. Microsoft will make decisions that improve 720 as an entertainment hub, that will harm it as a gaming device. Monetization of features through the rising cost of Xbox Live will make Microsoft a lot of money, but will prevent the system from being a runaway success. Microsoft's lack of diversity in studios will leave Microsoft at the whims of 3rd party publishers. Parity with the other next gen console is crucial.
3. Nintendo
Nintendo's WiiU console will be a success in Japan, but it's successes elsewhere will not reach the level of the Wii and fall behind the other two console manufacturers. Nintendo's WiiU tablet will splinter install base and cause developers to shy away from porting PS3 and 360 games to their system during the 2 year window that PS3 and 360 third party development will still be receiving non-sports titles. Nintendo will come strong out of the gate in the United States and Europe, but will only continue it's successes in Japan following the establishment of the two other two next gen systems.
Sony takes the successes they have had late in the console cycle and the investments they made in New IPs and thrive. Their online infrastructure will be even more improved than it is at the end of this year. Sony will continue to not charge for online and launch at the same time as Durango. Microsoft's focus on advertisements and monetizing features that are free on every other set top box will have them linger behind a world wide selling system in the PS4
2. Microsoft
Microsoft will focus on improving online feature in their device so that their vision of the window into the living room will come to fruition. Microsoft will make decisions that improve 720 as an entertainment hub, that will harm it as a gaming device. Monetization of features through the rising cost of Xbox Live will make Microsoft a lot of money, but will prevent the system from being a runaway success. Microsoft's lack of diversity in studios will leave Microsoft at the whims of 3rd party publishers. Parity with the other next gen console is crucial.
3. Nintendo
Nintendo's WiiU console will be a success in Japan, but it's successes elsewhere will not reach the level of the Wii and fall behind the other two console manufacturers. Nintendo's WiiU tablet will splinter install base and cause developers to shy away from porting PS3 and 360 games to their system during the 2 year window that PS3 and 360 third party development will still be receiving non-sports titles. Nintendo will come strong out of the gate in the United States and Europe, but will only continue it's successes in Japan following the establishment of the two other two next gen systems.
It's too easy saying MS or Nintendo would be number one, with Sony in third, but that's what I'll say anyway.
Sony clearly still wants a monster console and not something more modest and affordable, despite its financial situation and role in this generation. Their biggest problem is software, they really lack their own Halo or Mario. Vita, well, I like to think it'll do okay in the long run, but that's because I love handheld gaming and I'm not a fan of phone/tablet gaming.
MS is in the safest position, in my opinion. They very smartly managed to succeed in both the Kinect Sports and the Halo market. Sony failed hard at this. Kinect will sell systems. I haven't been paying a lot of attention, but will NextBox feature some sort of Windows integration? That also sounds good for them. Now, offering a free online plan would help a lot, I think.
Nintendo, I honestly think WiiU will struggle. Personally, it's the system I'm looking forward to the most, but I'm not sure there's room for it now. Game Pad lacks everything that made the Wii remote huge. Also, if we look at 3DS, stuff like Nintendogs + Cats and Cooking Mama is not doing very good compared to last gen. They have their uber strong 1st party franchises, but I reckon Wii Fit U will be a huge downgrade in popularity from Wii Fit. I see 3DS doing okay because of Japan, topping or beating GBA.
Sony clearly still wants a monster console and not something more modest and affordable, despite its financial situation and role in this generation. Their biggest problem is software, they really lack their own Halo or Mario. Vita, well, I like to think it'll do okay in the long run, but that's because I love handheld gaming and I'm not a fan of phone/tablet gaming.
MS is in the safest position, in my opinion. They very smartly managed to succeed in both the Kinect Sports and the Halo market. Sony failed hard at this. Kinect will sell systems. I haven't been paying a lot of attention, but will NextBox feature some sort of Windows integration? That also sounds good for them. Now, offering a free online plan would help a lot, I think.
Nintendo, I honestly think WiiU will struggle. Personally, it's the system I'm looking forward to the most, but I'm not sure there's room for it now. Game Pad lacks everything that made the Wii remote huge. Also, if we look at 3DS, stuff like Nintendogs + Cats and Cooking Mama is not doing very good compared to last gen. They have their uber strong 1st party franchises, but I reckon Wii Fit U will be a huge downgrade in popularity from Wii Fit. I see 3DS doing okay because of Japan, topping or beating GBA.
ShockingAlberto
Member
I think next gen could be the fulfillment of this generation's prophecy: when Nintendo is everyone's second system, they are first overall.
Will really come down to how aggressive all three are in securing exclusives, though. If they decide it's not worth it, then consumers are likely not going to see the wisdom in owning multiple similarly-capable systems.
Will really come down to how aggressive all three are in securing exclusives, though. If they decide it's not worth it, then consumers are likely not going to see the wisdom in owning multiple similarly-capable systems.
The only way anything even close to that happens is if Sony goes bankrupt and Nintendo buys all the game-related IP in the subsequent liquidation sale.
This statement confuses me. I thought we conventionally referred to a splintering or fragmenting of an install base in the context of optional add-ons.
Hero_of_the_Day
Member
Valve deserves all the boners for their free DLC and Steam sales.
boiled goose
good with gravy
I am surprised at the WiiU optimism. I think if nintendo fails to properly invest in online they will suffer. It is a different world now. People expect to be connected at all times. People want content on demand. People expect interactivity and communication with friends. Japanese support will be interesting. Wii was a wasteland for japanese third parties.
The concern over Sony is understandable. Vita issues, PS3 problems during its early years, etc. That said, they have invested in 1st party studios and are committed to making new 1st party IPs, which brings us to
Microsoft, which has instead divested in 1st party studios and IPs. Microsoft seems to be in some ways the western sony at the end of the Ps2 era. Good third party relationships but they rely on both third party support as well as the strength or their network and active userbase. If customers and developers invest elsewhere, they could be in trouble (like sony was with pS3). I do not think kinect is too valuable. The hardware itself has sold a lot, mostly in bundles but there really has been no killer app. Most games have been derivative copies of Wii games. Where are the 20m plus Wii fits, Wii plays, Mario karts, NSMBWii, Wi sports Resort on kinect>
The concern over Sony is understandable. Vita issues, PS3 problems during its early years, etc. That said, they have invested in 1st party studios and are committed to making new 1st party IPs, which brings us to
Microsoft, which has instead divested in 1st party studios and IPs. Microsoft seems to be in some ways the western sony at the end of the Ps2 era. Good third party relationships but they rely on both third party support as well as the strength or their network and active userbase. If customers and developers invest elsewhere, they could be in trouble (like sony was with pS3). I do not think kinect is too valuable. The hardware itself has sold a lot, mostly in bundles but there really has been no killer app. Most games have been derivative copies of Wii games. Where are the 20m plus Wii fits, Wii plays, Mario karts, NSMBWii, Wi sports Resort on kinect>
wasn´t kinect their big-seller?
sony: they may ultimately abandon their aspirations to have a dedicated handheld. some will see this as a sign of bowing out of the hardware race altogether, but sony is not going to let microsoft have the living room to themselves. they will be super aggressive with the playstation 4, challenging microsoft directly for control of north america and europe. at the end of the generation, i think they'll be closer to microsoft than this gen, and keep their edge in europe.
nintendo: they will focus on japan and developers who make games that sell well in japan. in a way, the wii u will be like the psp, and sell disproportionately well in japan compared to the rest of the world. the wii u will mirror the ps3's performance in the us and the 360's perfomance in europe, especially as online services take off and leave nintendo behind.
microsoft: japan is a lost cause for them, but this doesn't matter as they have the lion's share of support from western developers and japanese developers who want to make western games. they will take north america, overcoming nintendo's headstart sometime in the end of 2014, and regularly beating the ps4 in monthly sales.
overall end-of-generation ranking:
1. microsoft
2. sony
3. nintendo
nintendo: they will focus on japan and developers who make games that sell well in japan. in a way, the wii u will be like the psp, and sell disproportionately well in japan compared to the rest of the world. the wii u will mirror the ps3's performance in the us and the 360's perfomance in europe, especially as online services take off and leave nintendo behind.
microsoft: japan is a lost cause for them, but this doesn't matter as they have the lion's share of support from western developers and japanese developers who want to make western games. they will take north america, overcoming nintendo's headstart sometime in the end of 2014, and regularly beating the ps4 in monthly sales.
overall end-of-generation ranking:
1. microsoft
2. sony
3. nintendo
I explain that right. I mean that the tablet will make developers leery of porting over third party games. If they want to do a quick and dirty port to the more traditional controller like the Pro, it will be hard to justify making the port. Unless the Pro controller is being packed in with the system at launch.
PopcornMegaphone
Banned
Perhaps I'm naive, but I think MS will have a strong core gamer line-up early next gen, so I think the "no games" prediction is overblown. That's why things are dry for the 360 right now, games are in the hopper for next gen (created or money-hatted).
The only one being biased here is you. Not everyone needs to think XBOX is Gods gift to the gaming world. If you think they are more power to you but that does not mean everyone needs to think that way. Most people in this thread said Sony is most likely on their way out. Regarding 360 destroying the PS3, the PS3 has outsold the 360 since its launch worldwide. The only difference mostly being the headstart 360 got. If that is destruction then you need to get the def right. Destruction is what happened last gen when the other two platforms combined did not sell half of what Sony sold. This gen hardly witnessed anything like that.
If the three console makers follow their current positions...
Sony, despite decent Japanese support and great third-party support, will end up in third place with PS4 for consoles and second with Vita in the dedicated console market. Neither will be successful enough for Sony to remain in the console or handhelds, though. Sony instead shifts to PlayStation Mobile and eventually expands the service to PCs. Sony Computer Entertainment will continue to make games for a time, but no one will particularly care for most of them.
Microsoft will remain in second place, but with lesser sales. Microsoft loses Japan out again and most third-party developers will make games for PS4 and 720. However, the loss of Sony in the console market combined with the ignoring of Nintendo in the console market will lead to a cascade effect even worse than what this generation has experienced with higher costs and lesser sales. Japanese developers flee to the 3DS, while Western developer after Western developer either closes up shop or goes into casual, F2P or indie stuff.
Nintendo will be first in both consoles and dedicated handhelds... However, neither 3DS nor Wii U is as successful as DS and Wii. Nintendo will have decent profit and will have minor third-party support on Wii U until most of it dry up with the release of PS4 & 720. 3DS will have pretty much all the Japanese third-party support save for a few key franchises which will be multiplatform PS4 and 720, especially after Sony leaves the market.
The Ouya will end up being marginally successful and convince Google that there is a market for a $99 console using Android and will revive the Nexus Q for use as one. Oddly enough, various models of Android consoles from both Google's Nexus line and outside of it will see release, culminating in the Google and Sony cobranded release of the PlayStation Nexus, which is a PlayStation Certified Stock Android device. Seeing Android enter the console market, Apple will create their own iOS based console, the Apple iPlay... Both devices will be compatible with games from their respective stores and both might actually end up handheld devices with buttons that could be connected to televisions via HDMI.
Sony, despite decent Japanese support and great third-party support, will end up in third place with PS4 for consoles and second with Vita in the dedicated console market. Neither will be successful enough for Sony to remain in the console or handhelds, though. Sony instead shifts to PlayStation Mobile and eventually expands the service to PCs. Sony Computer Entertainment will continue to make games for a time, but no one will particularly care for most of them.
Microsoft will remain in second place, but with lesser sales. Microsoft loses Japan out again and most third-party developers will make games for PS4 and 720. However, the loss of Sony in the console market combined with the ignoring of Nintendo in the console market will lead to a cascade effect even worse than what this generation has experienced with higher costs and lesser sales. Japanese developers flee to the 3DS, while Western developer after Western developer either closes up shop or goes into casual, F2P or indie stuff.
Nintendo will be first in both consoles and dedicated handhelds... However, neither 3DS nor Wii U is as successful as DS and Wii. Nintendo will have decent profit and will have minor third-party support on Wii U until most of it dry up with the release of PS4 & 720. 3DS will have pretty much all the Japanese third-party support save for a few key franchises which will be multiplatform PS4 and 720, especially after Sony leaves the market.
The Ouya will end up being marginally successful and convince Google that there is a market for a $99 console using Android and will revive the Nexus Q for use as one. Oddly enough, various models of Android consoles from both Google's Nexus line and outside of it will see release, culminating in the Google and Sony cobranded release of the PlayStation Nexus, which is a PlayStation Certified Stock Android device. Seeing Android enter the console market, Apple will create their own iOS based console, the Apple iPlay... Both devices will be compatible with games from their respective stores and both might actually end up handheld devices with buttons that could be connected to televisions via HDMI.
Woah, when did they sell like 30 million units in less than a year to catch up with the Wii?
OldJadedGamer
Banned
I don't think that Sony would sell off IP but they would sell off developement teams. Like how Sega sold off Visual Concepts to 2K. Or the devs could go back to being independent like they were before Sony bought them like Bungie did. Remember, a lot of first party Sony devs were not created by Sony but independent studios who accepted a buyout. They could go back to being independent.
And if that is the case, they will go with the system their friends have.
clay_ghost
Member
but Sony lost money on others market like tv and stuff. Vita is not selling,etc. Is no wonder why people think Sony will bow out .ps branding is not that good anymore. Hell even ff branding is not. Dmc re mgs all went mutil , Sony lost all the brand causal know of it.
I see; so you mean to say that the Pro controller will cause fragmentation (or that's how I would put it, since th gamepad is standard and the pro is doomed to have only a modest attach rate at best). I don't expect devs to bother with the pro all that much; it doesn't even do anything more than the gamepad, having the same buttons and just excising the screen. I predict it will quickly become the "player 2" / Virtual Console controller and nothing more. Devs will use the gamepad
to show a lazy map.
Way too early to tell anything, even Nintendo's plan aren't that clear. I was going to do some guesswork but I realized I have absolutely no idea how it will pan out, if I were to have a gun pointed to my head though, my guess would be:
Profit and sales:
Nintendo/Microsoft/Sony
Mindshare:
Social-Mobile Gaming/Microsoft/Nintendo = Sony
No one will bite the dust, but people (i.e. market analysts and the general press) will have a more realistic expectation from Social and Mobile gaming, and Sony might do some drastic changes in the handheld department. "Beating all odds" Nintendo will have a very successful handheld environment, they'll still be doomed.
Profit and sales:
Nintendo/Microsoft/Sony
Mindshare:
Social-Mobile Gaming/Microsoft/Nintendo = Sony
No one will bite the dust, but people (i.e. market analysts and the general press) will have a more realistic expectation from Social and Mobile gaming, and Sony might do some drastic changes in the handheld department. "Beating all odds" Nintendo will have a very successful handheld environment, they'll still be doomed.
But what third pary support does MS particularly enjoy apart from Activision and Maybe Bethesda? EA still gives better offers on PS3. Ubisoft and most third parties are doing the same. I think the outcome of the war will be decided on who positions and markets themselves well. Sony needs to invest more in marketing its console and try to once again penetrate pop culture like they did last gen ( mainly US ).
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Nintendo hires Ueda.
Cameron122
Member
Sony's Last
Game
This is the post he was responding to. It wasn't about LTD sales.
TV has nothing to do with the gaming division. All third party will continue to remain multi plat next gen which is interesting since Sony has an insane no of First party studios to continue making more exclusive content unlike MS. I myself think Sony will go out. I was responding to the post by someone about how no one here is respecting MS.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
EA and UbiSoft have a co-marketing deal currently with Sony. Sony is funding the Assassin's Creed movie and they money hatted EA due to losing out on COD.
Next gen is who has the most money hats and looking at Sony's money situation, they can't outspend MS.
CadetMahoney
Member
If you want my prediction, when Sony says you can only BC on some lame ass cloud service with lag and gamers see flawless BC and account migration on nextbox, it's pretty much over for Sony.
BC doesn't matter that much. Besides, I really doubt we'll see 360 BC.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
I think Sony could be in trouble without having their system be a gateway to a new media platform like PS2 and PS3 were.
But no third party will get moneyhatted to go exclusive. Unless there is a huge head start by one company 99% of the third party retail games will be multiplat. In which case exclusive content, Online Services and Marketing will decide which console will end up coming on top. While I know Sony will beat MS in the first category easily its the second and third that is up for debate and knowing Sony they will mess it up once again in those areas ( especially marketing ) and screw themselves over.
PopcornMegaphone
Banned
Exclusive content of Sony vs Microsoft is vastly overrated on GAF. I mean, most Sony exclusives are non-factors for consumers. For instance, when you take the top 3 exclusive IPs for each company this gen, the differences are minimal. Does anyone expect a huge difference next gen?
We know Bungies internal docs leak their next game won't be on Sony's platform. Is there a bigger new IP than that?
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Watchdogs. But that's probably going to be on everything, even the WiiU.
- Status