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Prediction: Will Breath of the Wild break 10million WW?
- Thread starter _Clash_
- Start date
BotW has a shot at blasting through past Zelda games fairly quickly bar OoT and TP.
really they're the only 2 that I can see BotW taking time to overtake.
It's literally the flagship title of the Switch right now.
If Switch manages to break 10mil by the end of the FY, Zelda will be past 10mil and that's a lock.
TP merely piggybacked Wii popularity more than the reverse.
I'm more interested in seeing how BotW does on WiiU.
they were really really right in up-porting that game.
really they're the only 2 that I can see BotW taking time to overtake.
It's literally the flagship title of the Switch right now.
If Switch manages to break 10mil by the end of the FY, Zelda will be past 10mil and that's a lock.
TP merely piggybacked Wii popularity more than the reverse.
I'm more interested in seeing how BotW does on WiiU.
they were really really right in up-porting that game.
PSFan
Member
I don't think OP should have combined sales of different versions. In a lot of cases, the different version came out many years later and is a lot different. OoT 3DS is much different from the N64 version because it includes Master Quest, the original didn't. It also came out almost 20 years later. I think they should be treated as separate games. They are different skus after all.
That said, I think it's still hard to say how much BOTW will sell in the end. Main console Zeldas always sell a few million, so it will do well no doubt. I'd put the core Zelda fanbase at about 3 million average so let's see what happens when sales reach that much.
That said, I think it's still hard to say how much BOTW will sell in the end. Main console Zeldas always sell a few million, so it will do well no doubt. I'd put the core Zelda fanbase at about 3 million average so let's see what happens when sales reach that much.
So, Switch is going to sell below the Wii U? The next big Zelda game is not for another 5 years most likely.
Wut? Switch should be at 10 million end of next year by the very latest.
Tomato Convenience Store
Neo Member
DLC and the insane tricks and secrets people are constantly finding will help maintain interest, so I think they can pull it off - but ultimately it will come down to the success of the Switch itself. Here's hoping.
TalentAlwaysWins
Banned
With the series not being that big in sales and the decline it has had over the years minus TP which was on Wii it will probably only do 4-5 mill LTD
As I see it now BotW will have a longer lasting appeal than most other Zelda games. The open world sandbox aspect of it might have a GTA 5 quality, where people just buy the game almost by default with the console because it's a world you want to play in.
I don't know how that would translate to sales precisely though, I think third best behind Ocarina and TP should happen at least.
I don't know how that would translate to sales precisely though, I think third best behind Ocarina and TP should happen at least.
The counterargument to this is that Zelda, while a highly desirable title, isn't enough on its own for a lot of people to jump in on buying a Switch for yet - once more games come out, they can swoop in and buy the Switch and all the games they wanted for it, including Zelda.
You can't claim that everyone who wants the game has already bought it now. That's foolish.
True. But consider that Zelda is also available for Wii U so there all Wii U owners who didn't buy a Switch yet have already gotten the game, if they wanted it.
Euh, only few PS4 games do that number. I think you have a wrong image on what good sales are one a single platform.
(even then I expect the LTD to be higher, but maybe not 10m)
Has mainline Mario ever failed to outsell mainline Zelda? Odyssey will outdo BOTW no doubt.
neurosisxeno
Member
Implying there already haven't been...
Also, Link Between Worlds is way too low on that chart
Holy shit! This is really sad 🙁
Would double-tip immediately if a HD-port happens. My favourite Zelda (after BOTW now)
Poimandres
Member
Lol. Wii U was probably a single press run. How many physical copies in do you think they even made for Wii U?
neurosisxeno
Member
To put things in perspective, Uncharted 4 has only done 8.7m so far--and that had readily available bundles already. Horizon has done 2.6m so far, Bloodborne did 2m, and FFXV has done like 2-3m on PS4.
That FF numbers is higher, they sold around 5 million, and more than 80% was on PS4, so around 4 million.
D.Lo
Member
I chuckled
Always-honest
Banned
I doubt it. Would be great for Nintendo though.
Maybe with the remake on the next real home console.
Maybe with the remake on the next real home console.
Nintendo already released PR for the Switch launch.
Fiscal year results in late April/early May is when we are going to get more data.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=963700
Skittzo0413
Member
Can't we reasonably assume it will get to 5 million fairly soon? Like, it should already be close to if not higher than 3 million, considering 2.5 million Switches sold with a nearly 100% attach rate, as well as a Wii U install base of 13 million.
I guess NPD/Nintendo's FY16 results briefing will be illuminating here, but 5 million LTD within the next 3-4 months seems fairly reasonable to me.
Not a glassball monger, but what I suspect might help it immensely is the fact that it's the first time Zelda incorporates mechanics of contemporary games and even pushes boundaries for other games since the 90s. And it get released as only high profile game alongside a new Nintendo system, that covers both, their portable and home console audience.
If any Zelda has a good shot, BotW has.
If any Zelda has a good shot, BotW has.
It'll be near 5 mil by Christmas you'd suspect
Then DLC and holiday sales
Needle will move fast
DaSorcerer7
Member
Eventually? I think so.
Interficium
Banned
You're predicting 100 percent attach for a non-bundle, lifetime, huh? Bold strategy cotton.
Vital Tundra
Member
I think it will take a while, and ifthe Switch truly succeeds this could be Nintendos last hardware with revisions for the distant future, which would mean continua sales for a long time coming.
Barrel Cannon
Member
Nah not 10 million. But it definitely deserves it
sixteen-bit
Member
I think it's possible over the life of the system. Tie ratio is high with Switch and there are some WiiU holdouts too.
NOLA_Gaffer
Banned
Pretty much. Twilight Princess launched on a console that just blew up immediately from launch and didn't manage 10 million, I doubt BotW will.
OrbitalBeard
Member
It certainly has the best chance of achieving that number than any Zelda game before it, including Twilight Princess.
The Salt Life
Banned
Think it will depend on switch production and if there are any other big name games on the system at the time people go to get their switch.
test_account
XP-39C²
10 million seems hard considering that Twilight Princess didnt manage to do it. But if they do a Zelda: BOTW bundle, i can see it happening.
Piracy was rampant on Wii though, and botw is in a different league, quality wise.
Shalashaska161
Member
Assuming Switch continues to sell well I can see it putting up Twilight Princess numbers. I doubt it will get past Ocarina though without future console re-release though.
If Super Mario Odyssey gets delayed out of 2017 and if Super Smash Bros Switch doesn't come out this year, it's possible. Considering the big main stream games for Switch will just consist of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and BotW for Holiday 2017.
Not saying it will cross 10 mil by years end by any means, just saying a large Holiday bump would go along way towards reaching that number.
Not saying it will cross 10 mil by years end by any means, just saying a large Holiday bump would go along way towards reaching that number.
darkstar0155
Member
I could see the argument if switch's were readily available, but they're not. Until supply meets demand BoTW will still probably be bought by 65%+ of new switch buyers
Skittzo0413
Member
The thing is, Twilight Princess wasn't the reason to get a Wii. Wii Sports was.
BotW is basically the sole reason to get a Switch right now, and that's being reflected in the nearly 100% attach rate thus far. Obviously that attach rate will go down as more consoles are sold but I honestly can't see it dropping too far below, say, 50% even as late as next March.
Frankly I'd be astonished if it doesn't hit 5 million by the end of 2017. I'm actually expecting something more like 6-7 million for that myself, but it should be well over 3 million right now, and selling another 2-4 million in the next 8 months on a console who's demand is far outstripping supply should be pretty doable.
Savinowned
Member
If they decide to start doing a bundle for $300 with Zelda come this fall, I think it's guaranteed to sell 10 mil by the end of 2018... but I'm starting to think a bundle like that may be unlikely
LegendofLex
Member
I'd be very surprised if the Switch version isn't at least the best-selling single SKU in the series' history. I think it could pass 10 million lifetime. This is the first Zelda game that seems to be reaching the Minecraft generation, which is an encouraging sign. And it's selling hardware - even used Wii U sales are ticking up.
I'm thinking around 6-8 million by the end of 2017. Lifetime it could very easily be the top selling Zelda game, I don't see why every second or third new owner of the Switch in 2019 wouldn't be buying BotW. It's actually far more of an evergreen tittle than the majority of it's predecessors.