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PoliGAF Official May 6th Primary Thread (All I need is a Hirracle, all I need is you)

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R

Rur0ni

Member
Candidates

Hilliary Rodham Clinton

clintonindiana.jpg


"We are the same, you and I."

Barack Hussein Obama

obamaindiana.jpg


"White people DO love me."

*************

The States

North Carolina

tarheelcookie.jpg


*************

ncarolinapop.png


*************

Breakdown

ncarolinademo.png


*************

RCP

rcpncarolina.png


*************

Indiana

hoosier.png


*************

indianapop.png


*************

Breakdown

indianademo.png


*************

RCP

rcpindiana.png


*************

Delegates at Stake

may6thdelegates.png


*************

Notes

Significant delegate gains opportunities are over. What I would like to note, in North Carolina, Clinton recovered from a very low point, and gained some serious ground. What could have been 20+ blowout, will now be a 10 margin. Going by the polling that is. ;)

As far as Indiana goes... Obama managed to poll higher for a brief point, which would have continued.... but inject Wright-Gate, and Clinton takes the lead. I don't think she'll pull any higher than 5% victory though. I'll post my final predictions after Monday polling.

Extra Note

wright.jpg


"Buy my book!"

Extra Extra Note

The Story of the Crab Bucket

One time a man was walking along the beach and saw another man fishing in the surf with a bait bucket beside him. As he drew closer, he saw that the bait bucket had no lid and had live crabs inside.

"Why don't you cover your bait bucket so the crabs won't escape?", he said.

"You don't understand.", the man replied, "If there is one crab in the bucket it would surely crawl out very quickly. However, when there are many crabs in the bucket, if one tries to crawl up the side, the others grab hold of it and pull it back down so that it will share the same fate as the rest of them."
 
R

Rur0ni

Member
Tamanon said:
No "Hooper Tuesday" = fail!
Click to expand...
I have no idea what a Hooper is. Didn't someone mention that in last thread?;)


grandjedi6 said:
I'm more curious to see if this map stays true than anything else:

[MAP]
Click to expand...
I was looking for something like this. Was too lazy to scour the last thread :lol

Yeah I think the mountain men won't be friendly.

XxenobladerxX said:
NC?
Click to expand...
Not NC, a far worse place.
 
X

XxenobladerxX

Member
Rur0ni said:
I have no idea what a Hooper is. Didn't someone mention that in last thread?;)


I was looking for something like this. Was too lazy to scour the last thread :lol

Yeah I think the mountain men won't be friendly.

Not NC, a far worse place.
Click to expand...
Kentucky?

Seriously I'm terrible at pin pointing states.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
Rur0ni said:
I have no idea what a Hooper is. Didn't someone mention that in last thread?;)


I was looking for something like this. Was too lazy to scour the last thread :lol

Yeah I think the mountain men won't be friendly.

Not NC, a far worse place.
Click to expand...

Hooper because both states are known for the Basketball:p
 
R

RiskyChris

Banned
Except for the NW and the college towns, Indiana is the shittiest of the northern states.

I can't wait to get the fuck out.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
grandjedi6 said:
Applachian people hate Obama apparently :/
Click to expand...

I'm from southern West Virginia, and you would not believe the embarrassing, racist shit I've heard from people down there. My girlfriend was getting some work done to her car, and in the waiting room there was this older white lady in there discussing politics with someone else. And this old lady was telling this other person about how she was genuinely terrified that if Barack Obama becomes president, that he will enslave all white people.

One of my friends also told me another story. She was told by her father that if Barack Obama wins the presidency, there will be a war that is started by white people to fight the government because he won. He also said that if he loses, the black people will start a war.

There's also the typical racist shit I've heard from other people. I heard an older man call Obama a "sand nigger" and it was announced that Obama made like $30 million in donations in January and he was going on about how the Muslim extremist lobbyists donated that money to him. I told him that all of that came from donations from people and he was like "No it didn't! It was the Muslims! Where else could it have come from?"

Also, most people there think he's a Muslim extremist and take issues like the lapel pins and him not holding his hand over his heart during the National Anthem very seriously.
 
R

Rur0ni

Member
Tim-E said:
I'm from southern West Virginia, and you would not believe the embarrassing, racist shit I've heard from people down there. My girlfriend was getting some work done to her car, and in the waiting room there was this older white lady in there discussing politics with someone else. And this old lady was telling this other person about how she was genuinely terrified that if Barack Obama becomes president, that he will enslave all white people.

One of my friends also told me another story. She was told by her father that if Barack Obama wins the presidency, there will be a war that is started by white people to fight the government because he won. He also said that if he loses, the black people will start a war.

There's also the typical racist shit I've heard from other people. I heard an older man call Obama a "sand nigger" and it was announced that Obama made like $30 million in donations in January and he was going on about how the Muslim extremist lobbyists donated that money to him. I told him that all of that came from donations from people and he was like "No it didn't!"

Also, most people there think he's a Muslim extremist and take issues like the lapel pins and him not holding his hand over his heart during the National Anthem very seriously.
Click to expand...
I'll never raise children in a place like that.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Tim-E said:
I'm from southern West Virginia, and you would not believe the embarrassing, racist shit I've heard from people down there. My girlfriend was getting some work done to her car, and in the waiting room there was this older white lady in there discussing politics with someone else. And this old lady was telling this other person about how she was genuinely terrified that if Barack Obama becomes president, that he will enslave all white people.

One of my friends also told me another story. She was told by her father that if Barack Obama wins the presidency, there will be a war that is started by white people to fight the government because he won. He also said that if he loses, the black people will start a war.

There's also the typical racist shit I've heard from other people. I heard an older man call Obama a "sand nigger" and it was announced that Obama made like $30 million in donations in January and he was going on about how the Muslim extremist lobbyists donated that money to him. I told him that all of that came from donations from people and he was like "No it didn't! It was the Muslims! Where else could it have come from?"

Also, most people there think he's a Muslim extremist and take issues like the lapel pins and him not holding his hand over his heart during the National Anthem very seriously.
Click to expand...

Two Americas. The South should have been seceded.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
Rur0ni said:
I'll never raise children in a place like that.
Click to expand...

Please don't. It's fucking terrible here. I don't know how I ended up being the complete opposite of these awful people.

reilo said:
Two Americas. The South should have been seceded.
Click to expand...

The people here wave their Confederate flags and claim it's "Heritage, not hate" even though West Virginia was never technically apart of the Confederacy. The people here won't believe you, though. God damn it I hate this place.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Tim-E said:
Please don't. It's fucking terrible here. I don't know how I ended up being the complete opposite of these awful people.
Click to expand...

You managed to get a brain, moran.
 
G

grandjedi6

Master of the Google Search
Tim-E said:
I'm from southern West Virginia, and you would not believe the embarrassing, racist shit I've heard from people down there. My girlfriend was getting some work done to her car, and in the waiting room there was this older white lady in there discussing politics with someone else. And this old lady was telling this other person about how she was genuinely terrified that if Barack Obama becomes president, that he will enslave all white people.

One of my friends also told me another story. She was told by her father that if Barack Obama wins the presidency, there will be a war that is started by white people to fight the government because he won. He also said that if he loses, the black people will start a war.

There's also the typical racist shit I've heard from other people. I heard an older man call Obama a "sand nigger" and it was announced that Obama made like $30 million in donations in January and he was going on about how the Muslim extremist lobbyists donated that money to him. I told him that all of that came from donations from people and he was like "No it didn't! It was the Muslims! Where else could it have come from?"

Also, most people there think he's a Muslim extremist and take issues like the lapel pins and him not holding his hand over his heart during the National Anthem very seriously.
Click to expand...

Yeah I've been reading alot of shit about that :/

Key evidence of this is that the biggest differece in states between a Clinton vs McCain matchup and a Obama vs McCain matchup is Kentucky and West Virginia. Clinton wins or is competitive in Kentucky and WV, while McCain wipes the floor with Obama in them :/
 
D

Diablos

Member
grandjedi6 said:
Key evidence of this is that the biggest differece in states between a Clinton vs McCain matchup and a Obama vs McCain matchup is Kentucky and West Virginia. Clinton wins or is competitive in Kentucky and WV, while McCain wipes the floor with Obama in them :/
Click to expand...
This is why, as much as I think Obama is the best Presidential candidate since Bill Clinton, Hillary may be the ideal choice. It's not because of what we here on GAF think, but what all of the "special" white people out there think about a person who isn't white running for Pres.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Diablos said:
This is why, as much as I think Obama is the best Presidential candidate since Bill Clinton, Hillary may be the ideal choice. It's not because of what we here on GAF think, but what all of the "special" white people out there think about a person who isn't white running for Pres.
Click to expand...

Since GE are winner-take-all, Clinton wouldn't win those states anyway. She would be more competitive for sure.
 
G

grandjedi6

Master of the Google Search
reilo said:
Two Americas. The South should have been seceded.
Click to expand...

Hey now, leave the south out of this. You don't see racism this rampant in most of the south. It's just the appalachian area which appears to have some less than ideal people :/

Diablos said:
This is why, as much as I think Obama is the best Presidential candidate since Bill Clinton, Hillary may be the ideal choice. It's not because of what we here on GAF think, but what all of the "special" white people out there think about a person who isn't white running for Pres.
Click to expand...

Pfft, Kentucky and West Virginia really aren't important in the general election anyways. Plus Obama is more competitive in the Great Plains and west than Hillary. Both Hillary and Obama beat McCain in general election matchups, but I prefer Obama's since he is more competitive in traditional Republican states (I want to destroy the Red-State/Blue state divide that has been created in people's minds)
 
D

DeathbyVolcano

Banned
It's just the way shit goes I guess. Appalacian America is just full of fucktards and ignorance–even the south isn't as bad as them nowadays, since the modern brunt of middle-class work is (or was) centered in Ohio, WV, PA, etc.

Ohio is alright, just because the northern part of it is fairly modern and urban compared to the southern part. But Cinci? Columbus? Then WV? : /
 
K

Kusagari

Member
reilo said:
Two Americas. The South should have been seceded.
Click to expand...

Obama's beaten Hillary in pretty much every Deep South state. It's really just Appalachia where this is taking place. In the polls Tennessee, West Virginia, and Kentucky are pretty much the only states wheres a huge difference between McCain vs Hillary and McCain vs Obama. And guess what, their all in Appalachia.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Kusagari said:
Obama's beaten Hillary in pretty much every Deep South state. It's really just Appalachia where this is taking place. In the polls Tennessee, West Virginia, and Kentucky are pretty much the only states wheres a huge difference between McCain vs Hillary and McCain vs Obama. And guess what, their all in Appalachia.
Click to expand...

I wonder why that area ended up being the most racist?
 
D

Diablos

Member
grandjedi6 said:
Pfft, Kentucky and West Virginia really aren't important in the general election anyways. Plus Obama is more competitive in the Great Plains and west than Hillary. Both Hillary and Obama beat McCain in general election matchups, but I prefer Obama's since he is more competitive in traditional Republican states (I want to destroy the Red-State/Blue state divide that has been created in people's minds)
Click to expand...
I'm not even really talking about KY or WV, but overall. Although, consider PA. CNN did a very interesting analysis of the Obama vote here and said it was similar to Dukakis in 1988, and Dukakis lost PA in the general. It wasn't by much, but it was enough.

Basically in PA, if you are a Democrat and want to win, you need the catholic vote because there are SO many catholics here. Obama could end up doing like Dukakis did simply because a lot of Democrats wouldn't waste their time voting for him here. And Dems NEED PA.
 
G

grandjedi6

Master of the Google Search
Diablos said:
I'm not even really talking about KY or WV, but overall. Although, consider PA. CNN did a very interesting analysis of the Obama vote here and said it was similar to Dukakis in 1988, and Dukakis lost PA in the general. It wasn't by much, but it was enough.

Basically in PA, if you are a Democrat and want to win, you need the catholic vote because there are SO many catholics here. Obama could end up doing like Dukakis did simply because a lot of Democrats wouldn't waste their time voting for him here. And Dems NEED PA.
Click to expand...

Obama has been beating McCain in Penn. polls. And it would be shocking if McCain won Ohio, Penn and Florida (though that is his only real way of winning the Presidency).
 
D

Diablos

Member
Well, of those three states, in 2000 and 2004 all the Dems got was PA. IMO they really need to focus on getting OH and/or FL too.

It's so irritating. In both 2000 and 2004 they fell so short of success. All Hillary or Obama needs in November is everything Gore and Kerry got, plus OH or FL. They don't even need both, just one!
 
T

Triumph

Banned
Diablos said:
Well, of those three states, in 2000 and 2004 all the Dems got was PA. IMO they really need to focus on getting OH and/or FL too.
Click to expand...
You're focusing on the same old and busted electoral map that the Dems have been using since Bill was the nominee in '92. You can ignore OH/FL if you're competitive in CO, NV, NM, VA and NC.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
I'm watching Obama's Meet the Press appearance online right now, and the first 15 minutes (out of 48 total) were devoted entirely to Wright. I don't watch TV, but I'm struck with just how petty and and just plain stupid the MSM really is every time I'm exposed to it. Russert is a tool.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Triumph said:
You're focusing on the same old and busted electoral map that the Dems have been using since Bill was the nominee in '92. You can ignore OH/FL if you're competitive in CO, NV, NM, VA and NC.
Click to expand...
old and busted?

In 2004 all Kerry needed was Ohio, and he lost it. I wouldn't exactly say it was an "old and busted" approach because his win really was that easy.

I hear you about the states Obama could be competitive in, but it's not a guarantee. They shouldn't forget about OH and FL just because Obama is more competitive in a few more states that haven't gone Democratic in a long time.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
Suikoguy said:
I wonder why that area ended up being the most racist?
Click to expand...

Unlike most of the South, there are no black people there for the most part. That means that intolerance can breed unopposed. Elsewhere in the South, there's more exposure between the races.
 
G

grandjedi6

Master of the Google Search
Diablos said:
old and busted?

In 2004 all Kerry needed was Ohio, and he lost it. I wouldn't exactly say it was an "old and busted" approach because his win really was that easy.

I hear you about the states Obama could be competitive in, but it's not a guarantee. They shouldn't forget about OH and FL just because Obama is more competitive in a few more states that haven't gone Democratic in a long time.
Click to expand...

You are falling for the stereotypes from the Red State/Blue State divide. In reality New Mexico and Nevada are easy states for Democrats to get (and have in the past). Plus Iowa and Colorado are tracking to Democrats fast and polls show Obama winning. Just because Penn, Ohio and Florida were swing states in 2000 & 2004 doesn't mean they will be in the future (In fact I'd go as far as to say Florida is a lost cause and Penn is a likely Democrat win)

See look at this:

347d892.png
 
G

guess

Member
Tamanon said:
Unlike most of the South, there are no black people there for the most part. That means that intolerance can breed unopposed. Elsewhere in the South, there's more exposure between the races.
Click to expand...

So wait, you're trying to tell me that intolerance has more to do with how homogeneous an area is rather than its geographical location.
 
D

Diablos

Member
grandjedi6: Yes, I've looked at electoral maps before.

I'm not falling for stereotypes. :lol

What Triumph said is definitely possible, look at 1992:

rr589u.jpg


and 1996:

2582ikp.jpg


I'm not saying this isn't possible. I'm just saying since 2000 the electoral map has not looked like that for Dems. The statistics look very promising, but I've seen people on here (and elsewhere) kind of shrug off Ohio and Florida if Obama gets the nomination, but I don't think that's very smart.
 
G

grandjedi6

Master of the Google Search
Diablos said:
grandjedi6: Yes, I've looked at electoral maps before.

I'm not falling for stereotypes. :lol

What Triumph said is definitely possible, look at 1992:

http://i25.tinypic.com/rr589u.jpg[IMG]

and 1996:

[IMG]http://i25.tinypic.com/2582ikp.jpg[IMG]

I'm not saying this isn't possible. I'm just saying since 2000 the electoral map has not looked like that for Dems. The statistics look very promising, but I've seen people on here (and elsewhere) kind of shrug off Ohio and Florida if Obama gets the nomination, but I don't think that's very smart.[/QUOTE]

No one is saying to ignore Ohio and Florida. Just that they aren't required. Unlike Kerry, Obama should campaign in new states like Nevada and Iowa, while campaigning in the traditional swing states also. Putting all their eggs in the swing state basket has been the Democrats downfall for 2 elections in a row now.

And using 1992 &1996 maps to prove a point doens't help much since the political landscape has changed so much
Click to expand...
 
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