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PoliGAF Official May 6th Primary Thread (All I need is a Hirracle, all I need is you)

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D

DrForester

Kills Photobucket
Huzzah, New Thread

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8297713f1aa6622f9f4cb0c8504ac73f.gif
 
H

Hootie

Member
I'm feeling pretty pessimistic right now...I just hope Obama can pull out a nice win in NC and a close match in IN, but the polls are looking scary.
 
D

DrForester

Kills Photobucket
Hootie said:
I'm feeling pretty pessimistic right now...I just hope Obama can pull out a nice win in NC and a close match in IN, but the polls are looking scary.
Click to expand...


THis election season has really shown that polls mean squat.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
Plus '92 was a strange year with Perot in it.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/05/04/opinion/polls/main4069259.shtml

(CBS) Democrat Barack Obama appears to have rebounded from some of the damage caused by the controversy surrounding his former pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright, according to the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.

On one key measure, Obama has seen a big reversal since his denunciation of Wright’s remarks on Tuesday. He now leads presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in the hypothetical fall contest by eleven points, 51 percent to 40 percent. That compares to a tied match-up in a CBS News/New York Times poll that was released last Wednesday.
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More reasons to ignore polling this early for the general.:p
 
C

Cheebs

Member
Here is something I've wondered.

When the media trashes obama for not getting many poor white votes they use exit polling.

Arent these the same exit polls who predict the outcome of the race widely wrong, on average by 8%? If their total exit polling numbers tend to be wrong, how are their demographic numbers apparently right?
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
Cheebs said:
Here is something I've wondered.

When the media trashes obama for not getting many poor white votes they use exit polling.

Arent these the same exit polls who predict the outcome of the race widely wrong, on average by 8%? If their total exit polling numbers tend to be wrong, how are their demographic numbers apparently right?
Click to expand...

Because they paid good money for it. And they automatically assume that white people are voting for him in numbers even less than the polling indicates because of the supposed Wilder Effect.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
Tamanon said:
Because they paid good money for it. And they automatically assume that white people are voting for him in numbers even less than the polling indicates because of the supposed Wilder Effect.
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Makes sense. But has anyone explained why he out-performs the total raw vote by 8% roughly in every state so far? It is so odd.

Which also is a good reason to ban exit polling from this thread. It set up absurd hope in Ohio, Texas, and PA and is never met.
 
Smiles and Cries

Smiles and Cries

Member
Former President Bill Clinton is cracking wise about his ability to make people faint, telling voters in North Carolina he didn't think he still had it in him.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D90F2L7O0&show_article=1

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,


Stephanopoulos pointed out that radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh has encouraged Republicans to vote for Clinton to divide the Democratic Party, prompting one of the lighter moments of the show.

“He’s always had a crush on me,” Clinton said, as the room of about 200 people erupted into laughter.


http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080504/NEWS0502/80504003
 
K

KRS7

Member
Cheebs said:
Here is something I've wondered.

When the media trashes obama for not getting many poor white votes they use exit polling.

Arent these the same exit polls who predict the outcome of the race widely wrong, on average by 8%? If their total exit polling numbers tend to be wrong, how are their demographic numbers apparently right?
Click to expand...

Exit polls are important because in America it's not only important how many votes you received, but what type of people voted for you. It would be way too simple to say Candidate A got X number of votes beat Candidate B who got Y number. That is not good enough. Americans need to know what church voters attend, what color their skin is, how many years they've been alive, their political ideology, how much money they have in the bank, what sexual organs they possess, and how much school they've been through. Only then can you understand the election. Exit polls give the media juicy demographic discussions that can last for hours and fill up a lot of time, while adding controversy to what amounts to simple arithmetic. Most of these demographic groups are defined by whoever want to use them to make a point. Have you ever heard someone describe themselves as "Reagan Democrats"?
 
T

thefro

Member
Jackson-Jefferson dinner is tonight in Indianapolis... milquetoast Evan Bayh at 8:15, Howard Dean at 8:35, Obama at 9, Clinton at 9:35.
 
K

KilledByBill

Member
KRS7 said:
Exit polls are important because in America it's not only important how many votes you received, but what type of people voted for you. It would be way too simple to say Candidate A got X number of votes beat Candidate B who got Y number. That is not good enough. Americans need to know what church voters attend, what color their skin is, how many years they've been alive, their political ideology, how much money they have in the bank, what sexual organs they possess, and how much school they've been through. Only then can you understand the election. Exit polls give the media juicy demographic discussions that can last for hours and fill up a lot of time, while adding controversy to what amounts to simple arithmetic. Most of these demographic groups are defined by whoever want to use them to make a point. Have you ever heard someone describe themselves as "Reagan Democrats"?
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I'm so fucking sick of hearing the media spout that term! "What does Obama have to do to win the Reagan Democrats?" From what I understand no one analyzed the voting patterns of that group since Bush the 1st was elected. It seems like the natural course would be that in the 1990's they evolved into the Neo Cons and I pray that Obama isn't gonna pander to them.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
Oh god, I don't think I can handle 7 months of Diablos and Cheebs hand wringing. For comfort, take a look at what happened in a R+10 district last night in Louisiana.
 
Smiles and Cries

Smiles and Cries

Member
The questions inevitably turned to the strains on her during the public humiliation of her husband's affair and eventual impeachment, although the questioner was oblique in the way she asked about it.

Her faith, Clinton said, gave her the support and confidence to work through it. "And to try once again to come to a resolution that was right for me and my family.... I believe that family is the core of your relations, your sense of identity."

But she said friends helped get her through as well -- phone calls or notes or a funny gift. She recalled that a close friend who later died of lung cancer "would always send me a little something to make me laugh, like some kind of stuffed doll that she said, you know, use this to beat the table with, or stick pins in it or whatever you want to do with it.... Women are really good about that."

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/05/03/clinton_gets_personal.html
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She used a Voodoo doll on him? Waat o_O
 
V

ViperVisor

Member
Weather looks pimptastic in Indy.

Mostly Sunny
76°

And that is the only weather I wanna hear about. No weather underground bull. Ya Heard?
 
C

Cheebs

Member
Incognito said:
Oh god, I don't think I can handle 7 months of Diablos and Cheebs hand wringing. For comfort, take a look at what happened in a R+10 district last night in Louisiana.
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You realize while I handwring about the primary I am VERY optimistic about the fall. My fear in primaries isn't something carried over for the fall. McCain will lose, badly.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Cheebs said:
You realize while I handwring about the primary I am VERY optimistic about the fall. My fear in primaries isn't something carried over for the fall. McCain will lose, badly.
Click to expand...
Speaking of which, didn't see this particular poll posted yet.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/05/04/opinion/polls/main4069259.shtml

Democrat Barack Obama appears to have rebounded from some of the damage caused by the controversy surrounding his former pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright, according to the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.

On one key measure, Obama has seen a big reversal since his denunciation of Wright’s remarks on Tuesday. He now leads presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in the hypothetical fall contest by eleven points, 51 percent to 40 percent. That compares to a tied match-up in a CBS News/New York Times poll that was released last Wednesday.

However, among all registered voters who identify themselves as Democrats (regardless of whether they have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary) Obama and Clinton are virtually tied -- 45 percent for Clinton and 44 percent for Obama. This is similar to the numbers earlier in the week.

The poll also shows good news for both Democrats in a campaign versus McCain in the fall. Just like Obama, Clinton’s lead over McCain has jumped, from 5 to 12 points.
Click to expand...
 
A

AniHawk

Member
NC

Obama: 56
Clinton: 44

IN:

Clinton: 53
Obama: 47


Even though the numbers might not work out, I think overall Obama wins the day: bigger popular vote overall and more delegates, but Media says "why can't he shut her out" and they drag this out until the last one that has a lot of delegates (Oregon/WV).

I'm going to see Chris Wallace speak tonight. I feel like asking him a question about what he thinks of news reporters becoming commentators.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
AniHawk said:
NC

Obama: 56
Clinton: 44

IN:

Clinton: 53
Obama: 47


Even though the numbers might not work out, I think overall Obama wins the day: bigger popular vote overall and more delegates, but Media says "why can't he shut her out" and they drag this out until the last one that has a lot of delegates (Oregon/WV).

I'm going to see Chris Wallace speak tonight. I feel like asking him a question about what he thinks of news reporters becoming commentators.
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Despite working for Fox Chris Wallace is a good man. He trashed Fox, on air, for attacking Obama too much. Should be cool to see him.
 
T

Triumph

Banned
Just did some math. Of the almost 400k early votes in NC, 40.6% were from AA voters. Using the 90-10 split, that's almost 150k votes for Obama in early voting alone, just from the AA voters. Say she wins the white vote 60-40, that means of the early votes he's already ahead by about 100k if I'm right. Score.
 
A

adamsappel

Member
Suikoguy said:
I wonder why that area ended up being the most racist?
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When West Virginia first seceded from Virginia, it's original state constitution mandated that there be no blacks, freed or slave, within its borders. "No slave shall be brought, or free person of color be permitted to come into this State for permanent residence." If APF were still around, he would point out that Robert Byrd, WV's eternal Senator, was once a member of the KKK.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Cheebs said:
Despite working for Fox Chris Wallace is a good man. He trashed Fox, on air, for attacking Obama too much. Should be cool to see him.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm interested to see what he has to say, and that's why I think he would be able to give an honest answer if they chose my question. Knowing the area (Pasadena) and the audience (old rich white folk), they probably won't choose anything controversial.
 
P

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
this was posted in the other (now locked) thread:


Deus Ex Machina said:
Obama Congratulates Congressman-elect Don Cazayoux on his victory in Lousiana

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/

Obama has proven to the SDs last night and in Illinois that has "down ticket" value. And despite the Republican attacks, invoking the name of Obama, a Democrat won in a district that has been Republican for the last 25 years. I look forward to reading Sen. Clinton's congratulatory note.

"*** UPDATE *** Obama issued this statement last night: “I congratulate Congressman-elect Don Cazayoux on his victory tonight. By electing Don in this traditionally Republican district, the people of Louisiana rejected the politics of division and distraction, and voted for real change. Don's victory sends a clear sign that the American people are ready to turn the page on the failed policies of the past eight years. And I look forward to working with him in the coming months to fix our economy and lift up America's hardworking families."
Click to expand...

Note to superdelegates: There's more coattails where that came from...
Click to expand...


that is a huge win for obama. he can use it as proof to convince superdelegates that he can get through those republican attacks.
 
R

Rur0ni

Member
Smiles and Cries said:
what is a Grandmast?

I googled grandmast and the first result was this thread
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Grandmaster. As in the Grandmaster of the Klan.... D.C. Stephenson. And as I mentioned earlier, Indiana was home to the largest Klan organization. 48% of white men were enlisted or something. Fact checking later. Anyway, I was attempting to be funny, but alas, I failed.

One thing to note, Google really caches our pages really fast. GAF owns.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
quadriplegicjon said:
this was posted in the other (now locked) thread:





that is a huge win for obama. he can use it as proof to convince superdelegates that he can get through those republican attacks.
Click to expand...
Yeah it was the election where the republican ran that rev. wright ad.
 
T

typhonsentra

Banned
Legitimate questions of judgment, experience

Joseph C. Wilson IV

SANTA FE, N.M. - In recent weeks Americans have been subjected to a litany of outrageous statements from Sen. Barack Obama's pastor of 20 years, Rev. Jeremiah Wright. While Obama was finally compelled to distance himself from his radical preacher, the relationship raises legitimate questions about Obama's judgment and naivete.

Obama, after all, wants to be president of the United States, and in that quest has proposed unconditional summit meetings with some of our country's most determined enemies, including Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Obama's campaign has been built upon his supposed transcendent qualities and intuitive judgment. His foreign policy experience is limited to having lived in Indonesia between the ages of 6 and 10, and having traveled overseas briefly as a college student. He further claims that a speech he gave against the war in Iraq six years ago to extremely liberal supporters in a campaign for state senator in Illinois is sufficient proof of his superior judgment in national security matters and qualifies him to be president and commander-in-chief of U.S. Armed Forces at a time when we are fighting two extraordinarily difficult wars. As with his relationship with Wright, a closer examination is warranted.

In the U.S. Senate, to which he was elected in 2004, a year after the launching of Operation Iraqi Freedom, he has done little to act on his asserted anti-war position, and has said repeatedly that had he been in the Senate at the time of the vote on the authorization for the use of military force he doesn't know how he would have voted. As chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on Europe, with jurisdiction over NATO, he has held not a single oversight meeting because, as he admitted, he was too busy running for president, even though NATO's presence in the Afghanistan war is critical to success in that venture.

Obama repeats the incorrect and politically irresponsible mantra that Sen. Hillary Clinton voted for the war and that therefore he is more qualified to be president. Unlike Obama, as the last acting U.S. ambassador to Iraq during the first Gulf War, I was deeply involved in that debate from the beginning.

President Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell made it clear publicly and in their representations to Congress that the authorization was not to go to war but rather to give the president the leverage he needed to go to the United Nations to reinvigorate international will to contain and disarm Saddam Hussein, consistent with the resolutions passed at the time of the first Gulf War.

With passage of the resolution, the president did in fact achieve a U.N. consensus, and inspectors returned to Iraq. Hans Blix, the chief U.N. inspector, has said repeatedly that without American leadership there would have been no new inspection regime.

l l l

SADDAM WAS A SERIAL VIOLATOR OF HUMAN RIGHTS, had started two wars in the region in the previous decade, continued to threaten his neighbors, including Israel, which he once said he would destroy with weapons of mass destruction. We may not have fully understood how little remained of his WMD arsenal, but were we really willing in the aftermath of 9/11 to give him a free pass, as Obama's rewriting of history suggests he might have done?

The approach of tough diplomacy backed by the threat of military action was the correct one and it yielded exactly the desired results, a unanimously passed U.N. resolution and the capitulation of Saddam when he readmitted the inspectors.

The betrayal occurred not when the president was given the tools he needed to secure international support for inspections, but rather when Bush refused to allow the inspectors to complete their work and decided preemptively to invade, conquer and occupy Iraq.

That decision and power was his alone -- not the Congress' and certainly not Hillary Clinton's. Obama is wrong to turn Bush's war into Clinton's responsibility. And Obama is dangerously na•ve in failing to understand the need in international crises to blend tough diplomacy with the other foreign policy tools at our disposal to achieve a strong national security posture.

Judgment and leadership in foreign policy are not intuitive. They are learned through experience. Obama's long and close relationship with the anti-American hate-monger Wright, his inattention to his responsibilities in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and his careless approach to Iraq all suggest that he would benefit from more experience. We should ask whether we want those lessons to be learned in the White House.

(Joseph C. Wilson IV is a former diplomat and U.S. ambassador. He was senior director for African Affairs in the Clinton administration. In 2003 he wrote a New York Times opinion piece, "What I didn't find in Africa," challenging the Bush administration's use of intelligence to justify the war in Iraq.)
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Funny how one day you can be a hero to the left and the next you can be a turncoat.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
Obama hasn't spoken yet.

BTW, anybody catch Evan Bayh saying after this Tuesday the party will come together under one nominee? Think he might've been tipping something?

Grandjedi: They know who Colbert is, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was a Reagan Republican.
 
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