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German Federal Election 2013 |OT| - Whoever Wins, Europe Is On Hold Till Then.

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A

anonymous_abc

Member
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The Christian Democratic Union of Germany is a Christian democratic and liberal-conservative political party
in Germany. It is the major catch-all party of the centre-right in German politics. Along with its Bavarian sister
party the Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CSU), the CDU forms the CDU/CSU grouping, also known as the
Union, in the Bundestag.
Wikipedia


The Free Democratic Party, abbreviated to FDP, is a liberal and classical liberal political party in Germany.
The FDP is led by Philipp Rösler and currently serves as the junior coalition partner to the Union
(Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union) in the German federal government. The FDP's
parliamentary group has 93 members and is currently the third largest in the Bundestag.
Wikipedia


The Social Democratic Party of Germany is a social-democratic political party in Germany. The party is
one of the two major contemporary political parties in Germany, along with the conservative CDU/CSU,
and is led by Sigmar Gabriel. Wikipedia


Alliance '90/The Greens is a green political party in Germany, formed from the merger of the German
Green Party (founded in West Germany in 1980) and Alliance 90 (founded during the Revolution of
1989–1990 in East Germany) in 1993. Its leaders are Claudia Roth and Cem Özdemir. In the 2009
federal elections, the party won 10.7% of the votes and 68 out of 622 seats in the Bundestag.
Wikipedia


The Left, also commonly referred to as the Left Party, is a political party in Germany, which describes itself
as democratic socialist. The party was founded in 2007 as the merger of the post-communist Party of
Democratic Socialism (PDS), successor to the Socialist Unity Party that ruled East Germany until 1989, and
the Electoral Alternative for Labour and Social Justice (WASG), a left-wing breakaway from the Social
Democratic Party (SPD).
Wikipedia


The Pirate Party of Germany, short - Pirates, is a political party in Germany founded in September 2006.
It states general agreement with the Swedish Piratpartiet as a party of the information society, it is part
of the international movement of pirate parties and a member of the Pirate Parties International.
Wikipedia


Alternative for Germany, abbreviated to AfD, is a newly founded (early 2013) conservative,
euro-currency-sceptic political party in Germany that is organising to compete in the German federal
election in September 2013. The party states that it is anti-euro, but not anti-EU, and not against European
unity. The party's central argument is that the euro is a failed currency that threatens European integration
by impoverishing countries with uncompetitive economies and burdening future generations.
Wikipedia

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Current Ruling Coalition:
CDU/CSU & FDP

Parliamentary Opposition:
SPD, Grüne, Die Linke

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The voter has two votes. The Federal Election System distinguishes between 'First' and 'Second' vote. However, these terms do neither refer to a hierarchical order (of importance) of the votes, nor do they refer to a logical (chronological) sequence in a valid election process. It is important that both votes have distinct functions.

First Vote
The first vote allows the elector to vote for a direct candidate of his constituency, who applies for a direct mandate in the Bundestag. Relative majority voting is used, which means that the candidate who receives most of the votes gets the mandate.

Second Vote
For the distribution of seats in the German Bundestag, the second vote is more important than the first vote. This second vote allows the elector to vote for a party whose candidates are put together on the regional electoral list. Based on the proportion of second votes, the 598 mandates are distributed to the parties who have achieved at least 5 percent of valid second votes (see election threshold).

Election Threshold
Mandates for the German Bundestag distributed by regional lists are only given to parties surmounting a 5% restrictive clause of the federally valid second votes.
Wikipedia
 
J

Jacobi

Banned
I don't have any idea who to vote for in this corrupt and incompentent mess. Well, who will damage my country the least? Hard to say.
The CDU and the SPD have sold out the BRD since the 50s, the Green Party sucks dick at actually governing (in baden-wuerttemberg at least), the FDP is a complete joke, nobody wants a coalition with the linke, the pirates dont seem to have a chance to get five percent (which might be propaganda).

I wish there'd be a good fuck the power-party. Against the surveillance bullshit, no massive useless spending (buying useless drones and shit), against fucking time agency and so on...
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
Boom Boom Pow said:
so whoever wins gets to decide the chancelor?
Click to expand...

Well the parliament gets to vote for the chancellor once the election is over. He or she is not voted for directly by the people in Germany. This usually happens after coalition talks have been finalised and a stable government can be formed. Realistically it will be either Angela Merkel or Peer Steinbrück.
It'll be Angela :(


Jacobi said:
I don't have any idea who to vote for in this corrupt and incompentent mess. Well, who will damage my country the least? Hard to say.
The CDU and the SPD have sold out the BRD since the 50s, the Green Party sucks dick at actually governing (in baden-wuerttemberg at least), the FDP is a complete joke, nobody wants a coalition with the linke, the pirates dont seem to have a chance to get five percent (which might be propaganda).
Click to expand...
It's not like they are going to be the majority part of a ruling coalition in the federal government.

IMHO Democracy has always been about choosing the lesser of many evils. For me that is clearly the green party by a mile.
 
G

GunslingerVit

Banned
Jacobi said:
I don't have any idea who to vote for in this corrupt and incompentent mess.
Click to expand...

What about Die PARTEI? They don't lie, and they answer plainly.

Die Teilnahme an der Bundestagswahl 2009 wurde ihr durch den Wahlausschuss des Deutschen Bundestags aus umstrittenen Gründen verweigert. Allerdings wurde Die PARTEI zu den darauffolgenden Landtagswahlen, sowie zur Bundestagswahl 2013 vom Bundeswahlausschuss wieder zugelassen
Click to expand...
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parte...enförderung_und_basisdemokratische_Initiative

Although I would prefer Stephen Colbert or John Stewart.
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
ElTopo said:
We all know Merkel is going to win.
L
Click to expand...
The question is how large will their majority be and who will they go into a coalition with.

It will be interesting ito see wether the bad news (NSA, Euro Hawk,...) continue to damage the cdu. Obviously Merkel continues to be made of tevlon.

I have been pessimistic for months that the government will just continue in its current form.
 
G

GunslingerVit

Banned
FliXFantatier said:
There was an interesting article (taz) about their first parliamentarian who won a seat and the realities he had to face about the fact that it isn't all fun and games. I will try and find it later.
Click to expand...

You mean this parliamentarian?
http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2013-05/Die-Partei-Luebeck-Langbehn/komplettansicht

I don't know if it makes much difference, if a politician is experienced and knows that it isn't all fun and games, but still makes decisions that are incomprehensible. So let's try something new, it won't get any worse. Maybe I'm just frustrated about the recent political developments in Germany...
 
J

Jacobi

Banned
FliXFantatier said:
It's not like they are going to be the majority part of a ruling coalition in the federal government.

IMHO Democracy has always been about choosing the lesser of many evils. For me that is clearly the green party by a mile.
Click to expand...
That's what I said before they got the majority here in BW. Aber die haben doch nur ihren Dreckspfand im Kopf und sind so ziemlich die CDU Lite.
 
J

Jasup

Member
Questions for GermanGAF

Looking at the recent polls the CDU/CSU + FDP can't form a majority, so the government is subjected to change somewhat. What are the options then?

CDU/CSU + SPD coalition could form a majority government, but what are the prospects of that happening? We know when CDU/CSU and SPD formed a government in 2005 (with CDU/CSU leading) it really backfired on the social democrats and their popularity fell sharply and I think SPD is hesitant to put itself in that situation again. How's the situation between the two now?

If SPD is out then the next option would be a Union's coalition with Grüne, although a majority it'd be a weak one according to the polls. Could that be a possibility? What if FDP joins the coalition to form a stronger three party government?

How eager are other parties to join in a coalition with CDU/CSU anyway? It seems it's absolute poison for their popularity, which is not a surprise. The only alternative would be a SPD+Grüne+Die Linke+FDP coalition but that's really not a possibility, is it?

Anyway, it'll be interesting to watch what happens.
 
T

TCRS

Banned
God, please not the greens. The CDU/CSU is already 'green' enough with their premature and costly Energiewende.
 
I

Irminsul

Member
ElTopo said:
I'm going to vote for the Pirate Party.
Click to expand...
Probably my choice too.

The fun thing is, now would be the chance to shine for the Pirates. They just could go out and say "Told you about that surveillance stuff!" and they would be right. But their media coverage is literally zero. And I mean "literally" in the correct usage of the word. I don't know whether that is because they have nothing to say or because they're not liked by the media. And yes, I could totally see the latter being true. Just think about how neutrally the "Leistungsschutzrecht" was covered.

Even the AfD with their fun assortment of populism, climate scepticism and other nice things gets more coverage.

Obviously, nothing of this will change the fact that Angela "Teflon" Merkel will stay. It's a pretty sorry state of affairs if your options are either someone who wouldn't even take a clear stance on the fact that it's hot today ("There are people who would probably the describe the weather as being somewhat warm, but there are better experts on that subject to tell whether it's really hot, so I better leave that to them" – not actually being said by Mrs Merkel) or someone who probably hasn't got any teeth left from constantly putting his foot into his mouth.
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
Jasup said:
Questions for GermanGAF

Looking at the recent polls the CDU/CSU + FDP can't form a majority, so the government is subjected to change somewhat. What are the options then?

CDU/CSU + SPD coalition could form a majority government, but what are the prospects of that happening? We know when CDU/CSU and SPD formed a government in 2005 (with CDU/CSU leading) it really backfired on the social democrats and their popularity fell sharply and I think SPD is hesitant to put itself in that situation again. How's the situation between the two now?

If SPD is out then the next option would be a Union's coalition with Grüne, although a majority it'd be a weak one according to the polls. Could that be a possibility? What if FDP joins the coalition to form a stronger three party government?

How eager are other parties to join in a coalition with CDU/CSU anyway? It seems it's absolute poison for their popularity, which is not a surprise. The only alternative would be a SPD+Grüne+Die Linke+FDP coalition but that's really not a possibility, is it?

Anyway, it'll be interesting to watch what happens.
Click to expand...

Ok I will try to break it down the way I see it.

First of all, remember that a governing coalition doesn't need 50% of the popular vote, but only 50% of the seats in parliament!
So say 10% of the popular vote goes to parties that dont get into parliament because of the 5% threshold, then the ruling coalition would be golden with 46% of the popular vote, because they would have a majority in the parliament.
Secondly it is not unusual for governing coalitions to only have a very narrow margin in seats. So even if the governing coalition only has one seat more than the parliamentary opposition it is more or less fine because most parties will vote as a block on most issues, only very sensitive or controversial votes get more difficult to get through.

With all that in mind there are 3 likely scenarios for the next general election.

CDU/CSU and FDP continue more or less as they are now, with a significantly weakened FDP giving them less ministerial posts and less influence on the coalition agreement.
Currently this seems very likely. This is also likely if they hold on to the majority by only one seat.

CDU/CSU and SPD forma big coalition.
If the above fails, this is the second most likely outcome.
It would probably mean that we have 4 years of not a lot happening. They might be able to agree on many basic policies but as soon as it gets into the nitty gritty it will be a very slow process. With their large majority they are the least likely to actually implement drastic change.

SPD and Greens form a coalition. This will require the SPD to gain a few points before September. The more third parties get into parliament the less likely this will become.
To be honest I don't see it happening, the SPD is just too weak and their Candidate Peer Steinbrück is very unpopular and seems like Frank Drebbin every time he does or says something. And I say this as a member of the green party.


Less likely possibilities

CDU/CSU and the Greens:
While possible it's not going to happen. Both party bases would be very unhappy about this. While the CDU has moved in green direction on many issues, Merkel especially, the CDU base is still more conservative. and the green base is still more left of centre.
This option will in all likelihood become more likely over the coming years if the parties continue to converge.
As a left leaning green member I am not happy about this! Mind you I do see a lot of potential for positive influence in such a coalition.

SPD, Greens and Left
not going to happen any time soon, the SPD and the Left continue to hate each other even though this would be a rather obvious coalition.
If the SPD continues to weaken this might become an option in the future, as the only viable option for a left-leaning government.

Anything else is imho realistically speaking in the realm of phantasy.
FDP and Greens will not enter into a joint coalition, no matter who else is in it.
The Left is not going to be in any federal government any time soon.
And if any of the other third parties get in we are doomed to a large coalition until the end of time. :p



Also I like your analysis that the CDU/CSU is poison for their coalition partner.
While this is more true for the SPD than for the FDP.
The FDP has just proven time and time again over the last 4 years that they don't care for anyone but their lobbyist. They are incredibly unpopular but will get into parliament solely due to conservative voters who want to stop them from dropping out and therefore making a RedGreen coalition more likely.
The FDP unpopularity is their own making and not down to them being in a coalition with the CDU/CSU.
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
Reuters has an interesting Editorial on what southern european countries are possibly hoping for
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013...ons-southerneurope-anal-idUSBRE96N08W20130724

Anastasiades, Portugal's Pedro Passos Coelho, Italy's Enrico Letta, Spain's Mariano Rajoy and Greece's Antonis Samaras share a common appetite for closing ranks behind Merkel as she tops the polls 60 days to the vote.

Earlier this month, they flocked to Berlin to cheer her at a summit on youth unemployment in Europe which many saw as a mere political show for her campaign.

Centre-right governments in Spain, Portugal, Greece and Cyprus hope to bank on a new political landscape in the European Union after the departure of France's Nicolas Sarkozy and Italy's Mario Monti, Merkel's closest allies in the continent.
Click to expand...

"NAZI, NAZI"

But while politicians, businessmen and bankers are convinced different winds are blowing in Berlin, ordinary citizens have yet to be persuaded.
Click to expand...
ah yes the old nazi comparison never gets old.

"Many people are waiting for the elections then hope, expect ... a change in the German position. This is not what I would expect," German European Central Bank executive board member Joerg Asmussen told Reuters in an interview this month.

Noting that other countries such as the Netherlands, Finland, Slovakia and Estonia shared Berlin's doubts, he said: "It's easy to hide behind Germany... It's a group of countries, it's not only Germany."
Click to expand...
 
GlamFM

GlamFM

Banned
For the first time ever I've decided not to vote.

Don't want these idiots to think that I play along in this.
 
J

jimi_dini

Member
FliXFantatier said:

The Social Democratic Party of Germany is a social-democratic political party in Germany.
Click to expand...

Hahaha

in name only

GlamFM said:
For the first time ever I've decided not to vote.

Don't want these idiots to think that I play along in this.
Click to expand...

It doesn't matter if only 1% of the whole population votes. The crappy system is so well designed that actually nothing really matters. If only 1 person votes, it would be fine. The only thing that would matter, if all the non-voters would vote for a currently tiny party. Because then the current "major" ones would lose.

By not voting, you are actually voting indirectly for the "major" ones.

Instigator said:
Fuck Merkel.
Click to expand...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSPhmGmNJXA
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
GlamFM said:
For the first time ever I've decided not to vote.

Don't want these idiots to think that I play along in this.
Click to expand...

I seriously think this is the worst one can do.
It is the very least a member of a democratic society should do.

If you are so upset I suggest you get involved, find a party you can agree with on most issues and try to change it, or form your own.
I understand that not everyone has the interest in doing so, but even then the absolute minimum is going out once in 4 years and voting.

Imho voting for Die Partei is better than not voting at all!

I said it before and I will say it again.
Democracy is all about choosing the lesser of many evils.
There was never and will never be a party that you, or i will agree with 100% of the time.
Either choose on with 50, 40 or 30% or never complain about what is happening.

That's my sincere conviction.
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
One month to go.

for the bavarian state elections that happen one week before the federal election one can now check out
the arguably unreliable and overly simplistic
Wahl-O-Mat, that matches your answers to questions with the various parties.
Most Q/A won't vary too much compared to the federal election not taking into account a few local questions and parties.


same as every election really, I will still vote for the greens though :p
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
ElTopo said:
Bringing up the meat thing again and holding it against the Green party was a stroke of genius by Bild. Take something completely insignificant, blow it up way out of proportion and stir up the idiots to make sure they only vote CDU/FDP. Focus is also 100% on its "Every party but CDU/FDP/AfD is shit" train by either manipulating information or deliberately putting it out of context. Pretty much no day where there isn't something utterly (stupid and) negative about SPD/Grüne/Piraten/Linke on their website.

Oh yeah, while I'm at it, fuck AfD. Fuck them and their "20-25 hooded left extremists stormed the stage and attacked the AfD speaker with a knife" lie. Too bad for them a video of the incident showed up. Fuck those right extremist liars.
Click to expand...

Well as if anyone was expecting focus to do anything else.
but it is quite depressing either way.

I just wish the SPD and Linke would grow up and at least contemplate a coalition. It's no good for our democracy if parties just say no without giving it at least a passing glance.
 
M

Milchjon

Member
I think it's kinda concerning that BILD distributes a free "election issue" to every household. Here in Hamburg, they argue against the city repurchasing the energy network, and print huge ads for Vattenfall that can't be cheap. Überparteilich, Unabhängig indeed.
 
G

Gemüsepizza

Member
FliXFantatier said:
Well as if anyone was expecting focus to do anything else.
but it is quite depressing either way.

I just wish the SPD and Linke would grow up and at least contemplate a coalition. It's no good for our democracy if parties just say no without giving it at least a passing glance.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately this is entirely the fault of the SPD. The repeatedly said they don't want a coalition under any circumstances. Which is funny, because they have many things in common, at least on paper. But at the same time they are openly thinking about a coalition with the CDU, with whom they have not much in common on paper. This just shows me that their promises for the election are in reality just lies. It's really sad what the SPD has turned into.
 
G

Gemüsepizza

Member
Not very, they don't exactly follow the Christian concept of charity. They are pretty conservative and constantly try to screw over the poor and unemployed or sell weapons to almost any other country and such things.
 
M

Milchjon

Member
John Dunbar said:
So exactly how Christian is The Christian Democratic Union of Germany?
Click to expand...

Kinda depends on where you are. The Bavarian CSU is still pretty church-focused.

With Merkel, it's not totally clear, I think. She's the daughter of a preacher, wasn't allowed to do certain things in the GDR due to her ties to religion, and says the book that most influenced her was the Bible.

At the same time she's a doctor of physics, and her political style seems to be somewhere between rationality, populism and a lot of waiting.

I think equality for gays is one of the few places where you still see some influence of Christian morals, but otherwise I don't remember too many decisions/debates that were religiously charged in recent history.

Of course, many German traditions are still very much rooted in Christianity. Like most of our federal holidays or the fact that stores are closed on Sundays.

Gemüsepizza;82968961 said:
Not very, they don't exactly follow the Christian concept of charity. They are pretty conservative and constantly try to screw over the poor and unemployed or sell weapons to almost any other country and such things.
Click to expand...

Well, the American right is much more "Christian", but they care even less about charity. I don't think you'll find many Christian parties that actually take that into account.
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
cMOo1eIm.png


I am really excited to see the results. while I have given up hope of any change it is still interesting to see who Merkel ends up governing with.

Even if I don't believe it I sill have hopes that the FDP falls below 5% like in Bavaria last week.

Hessen will likely be a much tighter race than Berlin.
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
ElTopo said:
They're not very Christian when it comes to politics and as pretty much every party (except for maybe the Linkspartei and in smaller part the Green party) they're very intertwined with the Christian churches. I'd say - as explained splendidly above me - there's still certain aspects (such as marriage) where their Christian roots shine through. Other than that though? Not really.
Click to expand...

As a green party member I was originally shocked to see how much influence the two christian churches have on the green party!
Germany is a long way away from being a secular state!
It's only been very recent (a couple of months) that a secular group was able to be formed within the green party.
 
D

Dead Man

Member
Hope you guys choose more wisely than we did in Australia, although it sounds like there is not much chance of a big change?
 
T

TCRS

Banned
shh no tears
embrace the mutti

While I'm glad that Merkel will stay on top I do wonder how much influence the SPD will have. I don't think the FDP will make it, there is no other alternative, so I'm pretty sure there'll be a Große Koalition 2.0.
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
TCRS said:
shh no tears
embrace the mutti

While I'm glad that Merkel will stay on top I do wonder how much influence the SPD will have. I don't think the FDP will make it, there is no other alternative, so I'm pretty sure there'll be a Große Koalition 2.0.
Click to expand...

they haven't been below 5% in any polls for quite some time. and just think of all the pity votes they will get after Bavaria last week.
I dread to see a "Nidersachsen" Effekt...
 
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