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The Force Awakens Box Office Prediction
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Baron von Loathsome
Member
Again, Avatar isn't Star Wars. Avatar's success was based on word of mouth. On the other hand, Stars Wars is among the most valuable franchises in modern media. That's gonna help front-load it.
I don't how crazy opening weekend will be, but it stands a good chance of breaking some serious records.
cloud_sleep
Member
Won't even beat Titanic let alone approach Avatar numbers. 3rd place is still good.
ryutaro's mama
Member
How did the legs on that movie look? I forget...
Scorpion Soldier
Member
Yep.
No % wise compares to domestic. Star Wars films are all sub 55% international take while the Jurassic series and all other top 20 films are near or north of 60% international take. Avatar was in the 70% range. If it can't improve internationally it has zero chance. Avatar has more than Jurassic World and nearly as much as Titanic from international gross alone.
It was number one in the box office for a good 3 months at least.
Edit: 15 weeks consecutively
ryutaro's mama
Member
Right, AHBUHDAR had insane legs too.
So I keeping Baron Von Loathsome if he thinks SW will have massive legs after being so frontloaded.
No response...
Or Return of the King? That movie made a billion in December back when making a billion was a noteworthy accomplishment.
Rhomega Beta
Member
Every single person on the planet will see this movie.
BossDarkseid
Member
WWOW I have no idea....If JW made 524mil then I'm gonna say TFA will make 600-750. Which would be monstrous, insane...but...
As for total WW...I feel like Avatar was proverbial lightning in a bottle with the advent of 3D...but in less than 24 hours the BFI Imax has sold the vast majority of it's first week tickets, almost all of the first two days are completely sold out and websites continue to stutter...
I'm thinking $2billion at least, but it could easily break 3billion usd.
As for total WW...I feel like Avatar was proverbial lightning in a bottle with the advent of 3D...but in less than 24 hours the BFI Imax has sold the vast majority of it's first week tickets, almost all of the first two days are completely sold out and websites continue to stutter...
I'm thinking $2billion at least, but it could easily break 3billion usd.
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
Don't care about OW.
Worldwide total of 3.5 Billion.
Worldwide total of 3.5 Billion.
BossDarkseid
Member
Literally.
Star Wars = World Peace.
on a side note...does anyone think those who earlier in the year said AoU would be top grossing are...a younger audience? I don't mean that in a derogatory way but the idea that the MCU, as big as it is, is as much of a cultural phenomenon as SW is...well...I disagree with the idea but I guess we'll see in 20 years etc. I mean AoU made less than the first film.
It still made a lot but...
possible dp
eBay Huckster
Member
OW: $150 million
Total gross: upwards of $2 billion I don't give a fuck
Total gross: upwards of $2 billion I don't give a fuck
diffusionx
Gold Member
I still can't wrap my head around the fact that Avatar is the #1 box office gross of all time (not adjusting for inflation etc.), so I can't really compare Star Wars to it and think about where it goes higher or lower. Unless the movie is tremendous (and not Star Wars tremendous grading on a scale compared to TPM), I don't necessarily think it beats Avatar.
I think opening weekend will hit $300 million in the US. Disney has hyped it perfectly, it looks great, has tons of callbacks to the old stuff, everything is clicking into place. The only thing that may stop it is if movie theaters can't physically show $300M worth of tickets. Worldwide $600 million. Domestic I can see it hitting $800M-$900M, maybe $2B-$2.5B worldwide.
I think opening weekend will hit $300 million in the US. Disney has hyped it perfectly, it looks great, has tons of callbacks to the old stuff, everything is clicking into place. The only thing that may stop it is if movie theaters can't physically show $300M worth of tickets. Worldwide $600 million. Domestic I can see it hitting $800M-$900M, maybe $2B-$2.5B worldwide.
ryutaro's mama
Member
1) there had been several 3D films before AHBUHDAR
2) go back and look at the legs AHBUHDAR had in it's run without being incredibly frontloaded. You think SW will enjoy that kind of sustainability?
Nothing easily breaks $3 billion but as you wish.
Game. Set. Match
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
I think the movie might not bomb
ryutaro's mama
Member
For what? A massive opening weekend that everyone predicted?
NCR Redslayer
NeoGAF's Vegeta
Better than anything else this year, but not as much as Avatar because some hefty competition.
The Hunger Games' opening weekend domestic gross was $152,535,747. I'd say based on this "8x over" record break, it can easily double that
but I also don't know shit about BO numbers, so who knows.
Less than Jurassic World in any and every way that you care to compare it to.
You're joking, aren't you?
These people have gone full on bonkers.
I'm assuming that it's all the people that said Age Of Ultron would outgross Avatar in the US and all they've done is delete the Marvel title in their previous posts and typed in Star Wars instead.
You're joking, aren't you?
These people have gone full on bonkers.
I'm assuming that it's all the people that said Age Of Ultron would outgross Avatar in the US and all they've done is delete the Marvel title in their previous posts and typed in Star Wars instead.
OW: ~140M
Domestic total: ~600M
Worldwide total: ~1.7B
So like JW, but better legs probably.
Domestic total: ~600M
Worldwide total: ~1.7B
So like JW, but better legs probably.
It also had a runtime of like 3:30 hours (and some places added a 10 minute break), so it had fewer showings to boot.
banefirelord
Banned
I'll wager it'll break Jurassic World's benchmarks but not Avatar's.
sunshine and gasoline
Banned
If the movie ends up being a fantastic movie...I am fairly sure that it will easily surpass Titanic. Depending on just how good it is it may even come close to Avatar.
Discotheque
Banned
lmao to think this will beat avatar is a delusion tbh. the best you can hope for is maybe titanic and that would be really impressive.
banefirelord
Banned
Dat Phantom Menace earning double Titanic's opening weekend before bad word of mouth set in.
Opening weekend gross: 300m
Worldwide opening gross: 750m
Domestic gross: 900m
Overseas gross: 2.8 b
Worldwide gross: over 3b
Been saying it's gonna be big. Having the movie sold out opening weekend two months beforehand means they can put it on every screen and it would still sell out.
Unfortunate because I want to go see it that weekend and I am expecting no way to see it.
Worldwide opening gross: 750m
Domestic gross: 900m
Overseas gross: 2.8 b
Worldwide gross: over 3b
Been saying it's gonna be big. Having the movie sold out opening weekend two months beforehand means they can put it on every screen and it would still sell out.
Unfortunate because I want to go see it that weekend and I am expecting no way to see it.
Do you need a hand shifting those goalposts or can you manage them yourself?
Besides being terrible didn't do Jurassic World any harm.
And what happens if the Force Awakens isn't shit...., but then isn't amazing either?
One opened in the summer and the other in December, what's your point?
i don't know how you interpreted my post but I was making a joke that the force awakens might suck and the legs on it will suffer as a result, like phantom menace
it was a bad joke
Are you trying to say that Phantom Menace would have topped Titanic if not for bad WoM? Men in Black also topped Titanic's OW gross and so did The Lost World, Liar Liar, Air Force One, and Star Wars (Special Edition). All released in 1997.
Spider from Mars
tap that thorax
$10
Mix Master
Member
3 Bill WW
Where people in this thread are really going crazy is the overseas predictions. You can't just look at Avatar and decide because Star Wars is Star Wars, it will top that no problem internationally.
1) Star Wars was never the biggest film of all time overseas. The most comparable release, (Episode 1) was a big international film, but it grossed less than half of Titanic overseas, and was behind both Jurassic Park and Independence Day (despite benefiting from a few years of ticket inflation).
2) Foreign currencies are in the shitter. The Euro was 25% higher when Avatar was released than it is today vs the USD. The AUD was 25% higher, the Japanese Yen was over 30% higher (plus the Japanese have been turning towards their own movies more in recent years), the GBP was slightly higher (5-10%).
All of this means that Star Wars would have to gross what was the equivalent of about $400M USD overseas more than Avatar in early 2010 foreign currencies just to tie Avatar today. Ignoring the fact that Star Wars would have to see its overseas gross quadruple over what the franchise was previously earning, despite no large 1990s/2000s franchise doing that.
It is conceivable that a really well reviewed Star Wars film that captures the movie going zeitgeist this Winter could take the domestic crown. I don't think it is probable, but I wouldn't be that surprised. Jurassic World came within $100M domestic of Avatar, and it wasn't even that good. Episode 1 adjusts to close to $700M. Sequels in the series has been in that range before (adjusted), even if we don't count re-release money or the novelty of the first film. Overseas has no chance of topping Avatar IMO.
1) Star Wars was never the biggest film of all time overseas. The most comparable release, (Episode 1) was a big international film, but it grossed less than half of Titanic overseas, and was behind both Jurassic Park and Independence Day (despite benefiting from a few years of ticket inflation).
2) Foreign currencies are in the shitter. The Euro was 25% higher when Avatar was released than it is today vs the USD. The AUD was 25% higher, the Japanese Yen was over 30% higher (plus the Japanese have been turning towards their own movies more in recent years), the GBP was slightly higher (5-10%).
All of this means that Star Wars would have to gross what was the equivalent of about $400M USD overseas more than Avatar in early 2010 foreign currencies just to tie Avatar today. Ignoring the fact that Star Wars would have to see its overseas gross quadruple over what the franchise was previously earning, despite no large 1990s/2000s franchise doing that.
It is conceivable that a really well reviewed Star Wars film that captures the movie going zeitgeist this Winter could take the domestic crown. I don't think it is probable, but I wouldn't be that surprised. Jurassic World came within $100M domestic of Avatar, and it wasn't even that good. Episode 1 adjusts to close to $700M. Sequels in the series has been in that range before (adjusted), even if we don't count re-release money or the novelty of the first film. Overseas has no chance of topping Avatar IMO.
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