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[RexNovis]

Ok is the runaway success of Pokemon GO making anyone else feel ancient? Starting to think maybe I'm just too old to get the appeal. But it seems incredibly popular amongst working professionals close to my age too sooo I don't know. this is of course exacerbated by the fact that it hasn't officially released in my country yet so I cant even really check it out to see what all the fuss is about. But just given what I've heard and seen so far I feel like must be missing something.

What do y'all think? To what factors does Pokemon GO owe it's meteoric rise thus far?

 

[Welfare]

Haven't played Pokemon GO myself but from what I've seen and heard, it's basically Pokemon AR. The concept of Pokemon on your smartphone allowing you to traverse the real world and "Catch 'em All".

Basically, take the massive charm and success that was the original Pokemon RBG back on the GB, and move that to smartphones.

 

[Primethius]

If Pokémon Go had the handheld games battle system, it would be the best thing ever.

 

[orfax]

[WIU] 30k
[XB1] 180k
[PS4] 240k
[3DS] 80k

 

[RexNovis]

If Pokémon Go had the handheld games battle system, it would be the best thing ever.

See that's the thing though it's battle system is just tapping to attack from what I've gathered so far. That does not seem compelling at all to me. No idea why they opted for that instead of turn based with moves but going by the numbers I guess it was the right call.

 

[Javin98]

Ok is the runaway success of Pokemon GO making anyone else feel ancient? Starting to think maybe I'm just too old to get the appeal. But it seems incredibly popular amongst working professionals close to my age too sooo I don't know. this is of course exacerbated by the fact that it hasn't officially released in my country yet so I cant even really check it out to see what all the fuss is about. But just given what I've heard and seen so far I feel like must be missing something.

What do y'all think? To what factors does Pokemon GO owe it's meteoric rise thus far?

Well, being an 18 years old who loved Pokemon as a kid, I can't wait to play Pokemon Go. Now if only the servers would go live in Malaysia....

 

[Rymuth]

If Pokémon Go had the handheld games battle system, it would be the best thing ever.

Salivating just thinking about it.

See that's the thing though it's battle system is just tapping to attack from what I've gathered so far. That does not seem compelling at all to me. No idea why they opted for that instead of turn based with moves but going by the numbers I guess it was the right call.

My guess is that they wanted the entry barrier ridiculously low.

 

[RexNovis]

My guess is that they wanted the entry barrier ridiculously low.

Makes sense. Like I said given the performance thus far it certainly seems to have been the right call

 

[LordRaptor]

To what factors does Pokemon GO owe it's meteoric rise thus far?

Ingress was a conceptually interesting game specifically designed first and foremost as a mobile phone game, not a game that happens to be on a mobile phone.
It was just implemented in a fairly unappealing fashion; you collected generic energy. you captured generic nodes. There was a vague sci-fi themed backstory to all of this.

Pokemon as an IP is fairly simple conceptually; you collect hidden monsters, you battle them at gyms. This meshes well with the core gameplay of Ingress at a high level, even if the actual gameplay of Pokemon Go versus an actual Pokemon game is hugely different.

Pokemon basically replaces the generic and unappealing parts of Ingress (you now find specific monsters, not just generic energy sources; you now go to named pokemon gyms, not generic portals) with an easily understood concept derived from the branding that serves to bridge the gap between "conceptually interesting" and "fun"

e:
Basically, the game itself and the branding attached have huge synergy that work beyond the sum of their parts.

 

[RexNovis]

Ingress was a conceptually interesting game specifically designed first and foremost as a mobile phone game, not a game that happens to be on a mobile phone.
It was just implemented in a fairly unappealing fashion; you collected generic energy. you captured generic nodes. There was a vague sci-fi themed backstory to all of this.

Pokemon as an IP is fairly simple conceptually; you collect hidden monsters, you battle them at gyms. This meshes well with the core gameplay of Ingress at a high level, even if the actual gameplay of Pokemon Go versus an actual Pokemon game is hugely different.

Pokemon basically replaces the generic and unappealing parts of Ingress (you now find specific monsters, not just generic energy sources; you now go to named pokemon gyms, not generic portals) with an easily understood concept derived from the branding that serves to bridge the gap between "conceptually interesting" and "fun"

e:
Basically, the game itself and the branding attached have huge synergy that work beyond the sum of their parts.

I must admit I had never heard of Ingress prior to your mentioning it but as you explained it that makes sense that Pokemon branding would make it more engaging. Thank you for the breakdown.

Was ingress particularly successful and did it have a long software lifetime? If what you say is true Ingress' user retention data might give us some insight into what to expect from Pokemon GO's population in the coming weeks and months.

 

[LordRaptor]

Was ingress particularly successful and did it have a long software lifetime? If what you say is true Ingress' user retention data might give us some insight into what to expect from Pokemon GO's population in the coming weeks and months.

I don't think explicit data has ever been revealed, but its at something like 10 million downloads and I see the number "a million active users" thrown around somewhat regularly. I mean, its 'still a thing' and it was released 4 years ago, so the core gameplay does hold some long lasting appeal, and some people are really into the abstractified "team versus team" PvP as geolocations are captured and recaptured.

The biggest difference is probably regarding monetisation models; Ingress IIRC sold real world advertising, so the owner of a store could pay money to make it a portal, and therefore attract foot traffic they otherwise might not see.
Pokemon Go seems to have a much more valuable and reliable business model in selling consumables directly - which, again, meshes better with the brand as well as making more sense from a business perspective.

 

[slavesnyder]

NPD not giving out platform splits is quite depressing, but I guess it's all my fault. I apologise.

A few weeks ago I asked on this forum for a breakdown of top positions in platform splits. Me, narcissistic as I was, ignored the warnings. A kind Gaffer did the maths and revealed, shockingly, that there was a strong lead for the PS4. Noone else before had ever realised this well-hidden fact. And the world would have stayed a better place if I would just have kept silent. But I made a quick note in my agenda and thought that everything would be fine and dandy.
Unfortunately I did not count on Gaf NPD threads high popularity among industry titans and true gamers. Logically, MS headquaters became aware of the dangerous truth and the potential harm these numbers could cause in the wake of the one-two-punch console release to come. They took action.
They convinced their buddies at EA (Moore, easy), Ubisoft (french, easy) and Microsoft (themselves, easy) to provide the long desired digital download numbers to NPD. But, quid pro quo, they blackmailed NPD to get rid of those meaningless platform splits.
That, in the end, the digital sales are quite meaningless (not full picture of participants, difficult to seperate US from WW customers, sales and free games distorting the picture) was willfully accepted by the Redmontians. Because in the long term, every sales number becoming fuzzy will just be another argument for MAU as the better, reliable and more prestigeous alternative.
With all of this, NPD will have dug their own grave.
And it was me who offered the shovel.

 

[spatenfloot]

Ok is the runaway success of Pokemon GO making anyone else feel ancient? Starting to think maybe I'm just too old to get the appeal. But it seems incredibly popular amongst working professionals close to my age too sooo I don't know. this is of course exacerbated by the fact that it hasn't officially released in my country yet so I cant even really check it out to see what all the fuss is about. But just given what I've heard and seen so far I feel like must be missing something.

What do y'all think? To what factors does Pokemon GO owe it's meteoric rise thus far?

This is Nintendo's blue/red/yellow ocean strategy.

 

[cakely]

The biggest difference is probably regarding monetisation models; Ingress IIRC sold real world advertising, so the owner of a store could pay money to make it a portal, and therefore attract foot traffic they otherwise might not see.

This is not correct. Early in the game they had a promotion with Jamba Juice and Zipcar, but that was it. Most of those portals later disappeared.

Portals either came from a landmark database which included churches, libraries and fire stations, or they were submitted by Ingress players.

There are several pokestops in my neigborhood that I submitted ... they use the photograph that I took and the funny names that I gave them.

 

[spatenfloot]

Today while eating mexican food, I captured a gym in the restaurant. The landmark was their beer bottle chandelier.

 

[PanicFreak]

This is not correct. Early in the game they had a promotion with Jamba Juice and Zipcar, but that was it. Most of those portals later disappeared.

Portals either came from a landmark database which included churches, libraries and fire stations, or they were submitted by Ingress players.

There are several pokestops in my neigborhood that I submitted ... they use the photograph that I took and the funny names that I gave them.

I have to commend you on your forward thinking. You always knew that your effort would lead to a ton of Pokeballs in the future.

 

[slavesnyder]

Would a game like Pokémon Go make sense for Apple or Google (or Samsung) as an exclusive?
Getting exclusives on consoles is an established model, so how about mobile?

 

[LordRaptor]

This is not correct. Early in the game they had a promotion with Jamba Juice and Zipcar, but that was it. Most of those portals later disappeared.

Ah, okay - I was hugely disappointed in Ingress and bailed out fairly early.
Datamining suggests real world business sponsorship of 'places of interest' is still on the cards if the rumours of McDonalds being mentioned in the code are true

 

[Elandyll]

What the heck is happening in the Amazon hourly?

The XB1 skus went from doa after the announcement of the XB1S to having something like 7 SKUs in the top 100, some even selling out?

 

[pokeystaples]

What the heck is happening in the Amazon hourly?

The XB1 skus went from doa after the announcement of the XB1S to having something like 7 SKUs in the top 100, some even selling out?

The prime day sales were ridiculous.

 

[Elandyll]

The prime day sales were ridiculous.

Ah ah makes sense.

I have nearly 0 spare $ this summer, so I stayed away from checking the prime deals.

 

[RexNovis]

Have y'all seen this NES Mini console Nintendo is making?

30 NES classics all playable via HDMI for a mere $60! This is legit the most exciting thing I have heard out of Nintendo in damn near a decade. There is no way this thing does not sell by the truckload. I've personally been waiting for them to do something like this for ages. It's always seemed like such an obvious move to make but with the advent of their haphazard virtual console system I had all but given up hope.

As silly as it sounds this single announcement has given me hope that Nintendo might actually be getting their act together. I can't believe it but thanks to this announcement for the first time in years I find myself actually excited about where Nintendo might be headed.

 

[Rymuth]

Donny, can we add NES predictions in our November NPD posts? : >

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

Ok is the runaway success of Pokemon GO making anyone else feel ancient? Starting to think maybe I'm just too old to get the appeal. But it seems incredibly popular amongst working professionals close to my age too sooo I don't know. this is of course exacerbated by the fact that it hasn't officially released in my country yet so I cant even really check it out to see what all the fuss is about. But just given what I've heard and seen so far I feel like must be missing something.

What do y'all think? To what factors does Pokemon GO owe it's meteoric rise thus far?

The appeal is pretty obvious to me. A digital treasure hunt.

I have less trouble understanding the appeal of Pokemon go than something like Snapchat or flappy bird.

 

[RexNovis]

Donny, can we add NES predictions in our November NPD posts? : >

Oooh yes! this. That would be fun.

 

[Unknown?]

Ah ah makes sense.

I have nearly 0 spare $ this summer, so I stayed away from checking the prime deals.

Yup, they're trying to clear stock but they'll be back off the radar in no time. The S was hovering around in the top 60s but now it's not even in the top 100. It'll probably get back in the top 50-60 range again and PS4 will be back around top 15-20 once the deals stop.

 

[Sterok]

NES is gonna outsell Wii U this holiday lol.

 

[CosmicQueso]

The other systems similar to the NES mini have never been included in the HW feed. Not sure where those systems show up, actually.

 

[slavesnyder]

The other systems similar to the NES mini have never been included in the HW feed. Not sure where those systems show up, actually.

Guess they are just classified as toys, not consoles. Heartless.
This thing can't even measure MAUs, so it's not worth it anyway.

 

[joecanada]

Have y'all seen this NES Mini console Nintendo is making?

30 NES classics all playable via HDMI for a mere $60! This is legit the most exciting thing I have heard out of Nintendo in damn near a decade. There is no way this thing does not sell by the truckload. I've personally been waiting for them to do something like this for ages. It's always seemed like such an obvious move to make but with the advent of their haphazard virtual console system I had all but given up hope.

As silly as it sounds this single announcement has given me hope that Nintendo might actually be getting their act together. I can't believe it but thanks to this announcement for the first time in years I find myself actually excited about where Nintendo might be headed.

don't tell me they are still gonna have the wired controller with 4 ft cord....

 

[Trogdor1123]

don't tell me they are still gonna have the wired controller with 4 ft cord....

I know, sell me a wirelesz one!

 

[joecanada]

I know, sell me a wirelesz one!

well I totally get that its a retro device but I don't sit on the floor in front of our massive 27 inch Sony CRT TV anymore unfortunately.... cords are just totally out of the question.

 

[Rymuth]

don't tell me they are still gonna have the wired controller with 4 ft cord....

Of course. You're SUPPOSED to be sitting on the floor looking up at the monitor as you play. That is the experience.

 

[donny2112]

Ingress was a conceptually interesting game specifically designed first and foremost as a mobile phone game, not a game that happens to be on a mobile phone.
It was just implemented in a fairly unappealing fashion; you collected generic energy. you captured generic nodes. There was a vague sci-fi themed backstory to all of this.

Pokemon as an IP is fairly simple conceptually; you collect hidden monsters, you battle them at gyms. This meshes well with the core gameplay of Ingress at a high level, even if the actual gameplay of Pokemon Go versus an actual Pokemon game is hugely different.

Pokemon basically replaces the generic and unappealing parts of Ingress (you now find specific monsters, not just generic energy sources; you now go to named pokemon gyms, not generic portals) with an easily understood concept derived from the branding that serves to bridge the gap between "conceptually interesting" and "fun"

e:
Basically, the game itself and the branding attached have huge synergy that work beyond the sum of their parts.

This is the same reason why Nintendo looks to their existing IP when coming up with a new game design instead of making them all new IPs. It's why we have Mario Golf/Party/Kart/Baseball/Soccer/etc. They could've just taken a fun core with a new IP, put it out there, and see how it went. But by placing an existing IP on it, they bring it more recognition, give it a familiar framework (e.g. shells, goombas, boxes), and still push forward new gameplay ideas. People who lambast Nintendo for rehashing old IP fail to recognize this on a fundamental level and just see Mario everywhere and nothing else.

This is Nintendo's blue/red/yellow ocean strategy.

Donny, can we add NES predictions in our November NPD posts? : >

You can predict for fun, but I imagine the chances of us getting data for this monthly outside of some launch numbers is basically nil. When's the last time we saw monthly sales of the Genesis version of this, for example?

NES is gonna outsell Wii U this holiday lol.

800K shipped worldwide for Wii U this FY. This might sell > 800K in Nov+Dec in the U.S. (based on initial reaction), so very possible!

 

[slavesnyder]

NES is gonna outsell Wii U this holiday lol.

WiiU might sell slightly more software, though.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Yes, i believe NES should easy beat Wii U this holidays. I expect only about 300K Wii U this November+December NPD.

800K shipped worldwide for Wii U this FY. This might sell > 800K in Nov+Dec in the U.S. (based on initial reaction), so very possible!

Isn't that... too high? I mean Wii U sold less than 900K first two months, so let's forget now that is death and all, there was still some hype at launch, do we really expect this NES to sells about the same of Wii U at launch?????

 

[RexNovis]

Yes, i believe NES should easy beat Wii U this holidays. I expect only about 300K Wii U this November+December NPD.



Isn't that... too high? I mean Wii U sold less than 900K first two months, so let's forget now that is death and all, there was still some hype at launch, do we really expect this NES to sells about the same of Wii U at launch?????

At $60 I would be shocked if it didn't absolutely obliterate WiiU's first two months on the market. NES Mini is basically a no brainer at that price with the games it's offering. It's an incredible deal.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Units wouldn't be that impressive. If the $60 generated more consumer spend than the mainline console, well that would be impressive.

 

[TI82]

The problem for me with the $60 NES is that Nintendo has shown us so many times now that they can't emulate their own games in a decent way. Cool for casual audience but not for me.

 

[Purest 78]

What the heck is happening in the Amazon hourly?

The XB1 skus went from doa after the announcement of the XB1S to having something like 7 SKUs in the top 100, some even selling out?

Fire sale

 

[RexNovis]

Units wouldn't be that impressive. If the $60 generated more consumer spend than the mainline console, well that would be impressive.

You don't think the low price point will make it THE holiday item of choice for parents? If anything I think it'd be more of a supply limited issue than a demand issue given the low cost of entry. But then again maybe in just blinded by my own overwhelming urge to buy it.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

At $60 I would be shocked if it didn't absolutely obliterate WiiU's first two months on the market. NES Mini is basically a no brainer at that price with the games it's offering. It's an incredible deal.

I mean is not like the Wii U launch was that bad... it was basically bigger than 360 and PS3.

We talk about a remake of a 30 years old console, and i don't think Nintendo will do a strong marketing for this one.

If they sells 500,000 unit in November and December 2016 can still be an very amazing result.

 

[CosmicQueso]

You don't think the low price point will make it THE holiday item of choice for parents? If anything I think it'd be more of a supply limited issue than a demand issue given the low cost of entry. But then again maybe in just blinded by my own overwhelming urge to buy it.

It will be in much higher demand than Nintendo will manufacture I'm sure. But that's the question, right? How many will they be making?

If they sells 500,000 unit in November and December 2016 can still be an very amazing result.

It'd be a bit of a surprise to see that many made.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

It will be in much higher demand than Nintendo will manufacture I'm sure. But that's the question, right? How many will they be making?



It'd be a bit of a surprise to see that many made.

Like said, 500K would be really amazing. I honestly expect something like 300,000-350,000 for this holidays in USA... Maybe 1 million shipped worldwide.

 

[RexNovis]

I mean is not like the Wii U launch was that bad... it was basically bigger than 360 and PS3.

We talk about a remake of a 30 years old console, and i don't think Nintendo will do a strong marketing for this one.

If they sells 500,000 unit in November and December 2016 can still be an very amazing result.

You underestimate how much people love classic Nintendo. This isn't a device that will sell just to gamers this is something casuals and parents with fond memories of Nintendo's past will pick up especially given its very low cost. Just about the only way I could see this not selling out is if the emulation quality is poor and word gets out. But even then it might still sell like crazy due to a bear universal appeal.

IMO the idea that Nintendo would recognize the potential demand for something like this enough to actually make it happen but then turn around and manufacture a mere 500k units would be borderline incompetent.

It will be in much higher demand than Nintendo will manufacture I'm sure. But that's the question, right? How many will they be making?

It'd be a bit of a surprise to see that many made.

Surely if they're smart enough to recognize the desirability of such a system they'll have enough foresight to manufacture a sizeable number of units. 500k would be pretty low for what is likely to be a hot holiday item. Unless you think they don't see this is a high demand item for them which would just be hilariously oblivious IMO.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Surely if they're smart enough to recognize the desirability of such a system they'll have enough foresight to manufacture a sizeable number of units. 500k would be pretty low for what is likely to be a hot holiday item. Unless you think they don't see this is a high demand item for them which would just be hilariously oblivious IMO.

So, you're putting faith in Nintendo's demand planning. That's what you're doing?

 

[RexNovis]

So, you're putting faith in Nintendo's demand planning. That's what you're doing?

... Touché. I guess the annoumcement just has me flush with renewed hopes for competency from Nintendo.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Guess is already time for November NPD predictions then

[NES] 200K

Your turn gaffers!

 

[Shizza]

You don't think the low price point will make it THE holiday item of choice for parents? If anything I think it'd be more of a supply limited issue than a demand issue given the low cost of entry. But then again maybe in just blinded by my own overwhelming urge to buy it.

I totally agree - and if they can produce enough stock I'd throw out a bold prediction that the NES Classic Mini outsells PS4 or XB1 in terms of units in November, maybe December too. I'd argue that $60 is definitely in the impulse buy range for nostalgia.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Is today not NPD?