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[Servbot24]

It was mostly aimed at the "Sony is King!" guy.

Ah. That is indeed pretty dumb

Spoiler

despite also being pretty true at the moment <_<

 

[Bronetta]

I wonder when the Switch will stop selling out. Will it be this year or will the shortages continue right through the holiday season and into next year.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

I wonder when the Switch will stop selling out. Will it be this year or will the shortages continue right through the holiday season and into next year.

I think the common idea now is if demands slows down, it will pick up in Splatoon 2 launch and never slows downs until 2018

 

[spock]

I wonder when the Switch will stop selling out. Will it be this year or will the shortages continue right through the holiday season and into next year.

Personally I think its going to be tight till early next year. Anecdotally, but word a mouth is just gaining traction from what I'm seeing (outside of marketing, etc.). Though the price point still seems sticky from the conversations I'm having/hearing. But I'm mostly talking to parents and the vibe I get is they want to impulse buy but price is making that a no go. I hear things like "this will be a great birthday/xmass present".

On a side note, waaaaay more kids have become aware of Zelda and nintendo in general. TONS of kids in the age 4-12 bracket, which I think is going to be interesting to see develop as they get older. When I've let some younger kids play Zelda, they zone out in a way that reminds me of minecraft.

 

[marmoka]

 

[Lightning_Roller]

Just talked to a friend of mine who works at gamestop and she told me they hadn't had a switch for long in their store since March. They get some, someone see a switch, they get it and it's gone.

 

[Spyder_Monkey]

You think how a console does in the launch window is indicative of long term success? It doesn't matter that the thing sells out, there would be HUGE problems if it didn't. This is nothing unusual and I'm not just saying that to downplay Switch. I think there are a few million dedicated Nintendo fans willing to snatch up units the first two months but let's wait until the end of summer/holiday season to make bold statements one way or the other. I'm not talking about speculation, that's fine, moreso the people who are convinced Nintendo has the next Wii on their hands.

That's one way of downplaying the Switch's success I supposed.

 

[Cerium]

Personally i find nintendo baffling. They should just make their incredible software for playstation. They are so stuck in their ways and seemingly ok with taking the money people will give them instead of trying anything new and potentially making much more.

Oh Jesus Christ.

 

[darkstar0155]

That's one way of downplaying the Switch's success I supposed.

To a degree he is correct, but we already have enough data to show this isn't another Wii U, whos sales pretty much dropped off a cliff instantly. Time will tell how much of a success it will be, but it's definitely not another Wii U.

 

[RobbieNick]

Can't we just be happy that gaming is doing OK?

Spoiler

Switch looks like it's going to do just fine and naysayers will be naysayers

As long as it keeps selling as strong as it is, it WILL eventually get good third party support. Companies don't ignore success.

 

[qko]

I wonder when the Switch will stop selling out. Will it be this year or will the shortages continue right through the holiday season and into next year.

I think the slowest time with the current release schedule looks to be September and October. But we don't know if E3 will reveal something to maintain the sellout status in those months.

 

[CaviarMeths]

The stories of it gaining traction are key here, I think. People see it, they want it. And I think the spacing of the big releases is about perfect for maintaining momentum. It's going to have a huge holiday. Not Wii 2009 huge, but that 10m that Nintendo is projecting by end of FY is going to be destroyed on Black Friday. Hopefully the report that they've increased production to 16m for the FY is true.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

.

I was worried I wasn't gonna see a shit post like this but now I have and the balance of the universe is restored.

 

[CharminUltra]

I was worried I wasn't gonna see a shit post like this but now I have and the balance of the universe is restored.

The Switch's success is short-circuiting people's brain, and it's a thing of beauty.

 

[Arynio]

Its sitting right around 400K in japan when you include digital and Wii U sales and selling just north of 20K/wk. I do think it will break 1million in japan within 1-1.5 years, but I can see why some people would doubt that.

Actually, as of last week, BotW Switch + WiiU crossed 500k at retail, and digital sales for the month of March were at ~40k. It'll probably cross 600k (all versions) during Golden Week.

 

[TheFatMan]

From a business standpoint, selling out of stock faster than you can make it is bad. Especially when you make money off software sales as well.

Selling 8 million of 8 million consoles in a month is good.

Selling 15 million of 20 million consoles in a month is better.



Hardware shortages are stupid and should never be the problem that Nintendo consistently makes them out to be.

 

[darkstar0155]

Actually, as of last week, BotW Switch + WiiU crossed 500k at retail, and digital sales for the month of March were at ~40k. It'll probably cross 600k (all versions) during Golden Week.

ah my bad your right. I knew it ticked over to another 100K mark. But yeah, selling 1mil in Japan only is a lock at this point IMO (over the life of the game of course, not in the next two months. My bet is by the end January 2018).

 

[Buggy Loop]

Oh wow, some of those posts that this thread generated.. That xeroborn55 fellow looks in distress.

He looks lke he's composed of salt

 

[marmoka]

From a business standpoint, selling out of stock faster than you can make it is bad. Especially when you make money off software sales as well.

Selling 8 million of 8 million consoles in a month is good.

Selling 15 million of 20 million consoles in a month is better.



Hardware shortages are stupid and should never be the problem that Nintendo consistently makes them out to be.

You never know with Nintendo. Sometimes their hardware is very demanded, like Wii, DS, Nes Mini and Switch. Or nobody is interested, like Wii U or 3DS (until the price dropped in the last one).

Let's be serious. Many of us here thought it would fail. Its success took everyone, gaffers, analysts, developers, stores, Nintendo, by surprise. Nobody expected the console to do so well.

Imagine that, as a company, you expect to sell 5 million Switches the first month, but only sell 500k. I don't think this is good. It's easy to complain when we are not working at the company or in the industry. But this world is more complex than we all think.

Even Sony had stock problems with PS4. It's not Nintendo only.

 

[Lightning_Roller]

Some of y'all posters in here need to step away from the keyboard for a few days because damn.

 

[ksamedi]

From a business standpoint, selling out of stock faster than you can make it is bad. Especially when you make money off software sales as well.

Selling 8 million of 8 million consoles in a month is good.

Selling 15 million of 20 million consoles in a month is better.



Hardware shortages are stupid and should never be the problem that Nintendo consistently makes them out to be.

lets make a small calculation:

Producing 20 when you can only sell 15 in a giber period means that you have 5 million consoles not paid for. Lets say Switch costs 200 to make. That means tou pay 1 billion upfront for manifacturing and pay extra for a lot of excessive stock costs. You also lose the flexibility of making special budles or ship with updated software roms on those consoles. So in short, have 5 million left over in stock is a horrendious business decision.

 

[SporeCrawler]

It was BotW. I think Nintendo thought that at $300 it'll be their high-end handheld, while 3DS will fill the needs of a younger market.

But then BotW happened, got all the 10's. It was talked a lot here for a full month, which I haven't seen in any game (it got many different topics). It was a hot item. People bought it more than the console. Zelda was the hot item, not the switch. Now they have momentum with Mario Kart, and the way they spread out their games was very smart to keep excite people.

there is one flaw in that argument though. BotW is multiplatform.

You never know with Nintendo. Sometimes their hardware is very demanded, like Wii, DS, Nes Mini and Switch. Or nobody is interested, like Wii U or 3DS (until the price dropped in the last one).

Let's be serious. Many of us here thought it would fail. Its success took everyone, gaffers, analysts, developers, stores, Nintendo, by surprise. Nobody expected the console to do so well.

Imagine that, as a company, you expect to sell 5 million Switches the first month, but only sell 500k. I don't think this is good. It's easy to complain when we are not working at the company or in the industry. But this world is more complex than we all think.

Even Sony had stock problems with PS4. It's not Nintendo only.

i think a lot of people expected switch to do well after the reveal.

 

[marmoka]

i think a lot of people expected switch to do well after the reveal.

After the reveal in October, I would say many of us expected it to become a success. But after that January presentation, price reveal,... those expectations drastically dropped.

We were wrong, and I'm happy because we were wrong.

 

[Hattori]

Unsold stock is terrible business. Not only did you spend money to make the product, you now have to spend more to store and let it sit in a warehouse until demand catches up.

 

[Deleted member 1235]

i had one on order for about 3 weeks from amazon.de its finally arriving wednesday. pretty damn excited and sick of holding my pro controller and imagining shit

 

[NetMapel]

You know I was at Best Buy during lunch time the other day and found out they got Switch in stock so I immediately bought one. The. I texted a colleague to let him know and spread the word at the office. Suddenly a bunch of the colleagues all rushed out and bought one too. Now it's all sold out again at that Best Buy haha. I've never seen anything quite like this before.

 

[PhoenixDawn]

Was lucky to get one at a midnight release at launch, but I just wish I had picked up some of the neon joycons as well at the same time. I can't find any for the life of me and it's beginning to seem like they're just completely discontinued at least in my area. Anyone have any suggestions for finding them? I know they are on amazon for like 50% markup but I guess I don't really need them that badly, at least not yet...

 

[Dirca]

I got lucky. Walked into a Target on a Monday afternoon around 3 and they had two on display. I asked for one and the clerk had several under the counter.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

i had one on order for about 3 weeks from amazon.de its finally arriving wednesday. pretty damn excited and sick of holding my pro controller and imagining shit

When your package arrives you must be the happiest person around. Anticipation makes many things better

 

[fredrancour]

A ton of us expected success after the first reveal, but became pessimistic after the live presentation. It felt like the marketing strategy was "wiiu 2" during that presentation

 

[GregLombardi]

A ton of us expected success after the first reveal, but became pessimistic after the live presentation. It felt like the marketing strategy was "wiiu 2" during that presentation

I never thought it was Wii U 2. But I will fully admit as a shareholder that after the presentation, I thought the system needed a 250 price point, a pack in, and gamers on board in order to be a wild success.

Then I got my hands on one and Zelda, and those thoughts faded into obscurity as I knew basically everyone would be pleased with the system once they tried it.

 

[BigRedOne]

I get the feeling a significant amount of scalpers are contributing to lack of Switches being available. Plus the fact that Nintendo doesn't send an ample supply to stores makes it easier to say to 3rd party support publishers, "see, you can't find out consoles on shelves; therefore, we must be doing something right." I really hope for the best for Nintendo but eventually you have to come around to the truth.

 

[Oregano]

I get the feeling a significant amount of scalpers are contributing to lack of Switches being available. Plus the fact that Nintendo doesn't send an ample supply to stores makes it easier to say to 3rd party support publishers, "see, you can't find out consoles on shelves; therefore, we must be doing something right." I really hope for the best for Nintendo but eventually you have to come around to the truth.

Damn those scalpers must be buying all the software too!

 

[MegaManTrigger]

You never know with Nintendo. Sometimes their hardware is very demanded, like Wii, DS, Nes Mini and Switch. Or nobody is interested, like Wii U or 3DS (until the price dropped in the last one).

Let's be serious. Many of us here thought it would fail. Its success took everyone, gaffers, analysts, developers, stores, Nintendo, by surprise. Nobody expected the console to do so well.

Imagine that, as a company, you expect to sell 5 million Switches the first month, but only sell 500k. I don't think this is good. It's easy to complain when we are not working at the company or in the industry. But this world is more complex than we all think.

Even Sony had stock problems with PS4. It's not Nintendo only.

The thing I don't understand is why people/analysts/etc in the predictions and many other threads on NeoGAF expected this thing to fail. Nintendo did everything right following up to the release of the console: better marketing, a concept that (at the time) seemed to resonate with the mainstream audience, and most importantly, a launch title that would sell the system as well as a launch year packed with great titles (inb4PORTSWAAAHHHH). I didn't expect it to sell gangbusters, but at the same time, I didn't expect this to start out as lukewarm as the Wii U did.

 

[Huge Succeeded]

I get the feeling a significant amount of scalpers are contributing to lack of Switches being available. Plus the fact that Nintendo doesn't send an ample supply to stores makes it easier to say to 3rd party support publishers, "see, you can't find out consoles on shelves; therefore, we must be doing something right." I really hope for the best for Nintendo but eventually you have to come around to the truth.

this is top to bottom nonsense

 

[i HeaR MusiC]

I get the feeling a significant amount of scalpers are contributing to lack of Switches being available. Plus the fact that Nintendo doesn't send an ample supply to stores makes it easier to say to 3rd party support publishers, "see, you can't find out consoles on shelves; therefore, we must be doing something right." I really hope for the best for Nintendo but eventually you have to come around to the truth.

Lol this scalper and supply shit needs to stop. Just let Nintendo have this win.. it's not going to ruin your life.

 

[Toni]

The stories of it gaining traction are key here, I think. People see it, they want it. And I think the spacing of the big releases is about perfect for maintaining momentum. It's going to have a huge holiday. Not Wii 2009 huge, but that 10m that Nintendo is projecting by end of FY is going to be destroyed on Black Friday. Hopefully the report that they've increased production to 16m for the FY is true.

Easy there.

You are talking about the Switch doing Xbox One numbers or even perhaps more. I think it will sell comparatively with Xbox One or a bit more than Xbox One.

But it won't be more than that, in my opinion. Its best to wait until August to see its sales base.

 

[Higgy]

I get the feeling a significant amount of scalpers are contributing to lack of Switches being available. Plus the fact that Nintendo doesn't send an ample supply to stores makes it easier to say to 3rd party support publishers, "see, you can't find out consoles on shelves; therefore, we must be doing something right." I really hope for the best for Nintendo but eventually you have to come around to the truth.

This is just silly. The thirst is real for the Switch. Girl at work who hasn't bought a console since the Wii has bought Zelda, a pro controller, and a screen protector. And she still hasn't found a Switch to buy. The interest is beyond just Nintendo diehards and scalpers.

 

[MegaManTrigger]

I get the feeling a significant amount of scalpers are contributing to lack of Switches being available. Plus the fact that Nintendo doesn't send an ample supply to stores makes it easier to say to 3rd party support publishers, "see, you can't find out consoles on shelves; therefore, we must be doing something right." I really hope for the best for Nintendo but eventually you have to come around to the truth.

This doesn't make any sense, because a lot of scalpers trying to profit from the system are starting to lower their prices, realizing that people are starting to be able to find the system. Even then, the scalpers alone make up a minority of people who only care about profitting. They are dwarfed by the number of people interested in buying the console for their gaming purposes. Additionally, what's an "ample supply"? Nintendo produces based on the numbers they set for manufacturing and then they have to distribute the shipments to thousands of stores worldwide. The biggest stores are getting around 20-30 per and still continuing to get shipments monthly.

 

[Pastry]

From a business standpoint, selling out of stock faster than you can make it is bad. Especially when you make money off software sales as well.

Selling 8 million of 8 million consoles in a month is good.

Selling 15 million of 20 million consoles in a month is better.



Hardware shortages are stupid and should never be the problem that Nintendo consistently makes them out to be.

Are we acting like manufacturing and holding costs don't exist? Because the latter option is a ton of waste.

 

[Vanillalite]

I wonder when the Switch will stop selling out. Will it be this year or will the shortages continue right through the holiday season and into next year.

They got until the end of July when Splat hits to get stock under control.

Splat should help sales again especially in Japan.

Then they gotta get stock back under control before Holiday rush hits.

If you can't just easily get one in mid/late June like a month or two from now then it's gonna be a rough year stock wise.

Nintendo have said they are increasing production, but that takes months to filter down the supply chain to customers.

 

[Principate]

Easy there.

You are talking about the Switch doing Xbox One numbers or even perhaps more. I think it will sell comparatively with Xbox One or a bit more than Xbox One.

But it won't be more than that, in my opinion. Its best to wait until August to see its sales base.

I mean the XB1 doesn't even sell in Japan. It has an inherent advantage over the xb1 during Christmas. Not to say it'll do that, but it's not crazy either

 

[JustenP88]

They just need to brace themselves for the Odyssey release. My prediction: review embargo up a week before Black Friday. Numbers near Zelda. Marketing goes ham. Nintendo announces a large resupply for the holiday season. Parents fight in the streets. Pokemon probably came out a month or two prior and Switch shortages are, again, a big story. I board up the windows and shut myself in cause I gots mine.

 

[Waji]

The people expecting third party games crack me up too. MAYBE the reason third parties arent there is that there are almost 100 million xbones and ps4 already sold. Why would a third party make games for a platform that has 1 or 2 percent of the install base and historically doesnt give 2 shits about third parties? Besides the fact that modern games cant be ported to the switch. The big announced third party game is skyrim!

Personally i find nintendo baffling. They should just make their incredible software for playstation. They are so stuck in their ways and seemingly ok with taking the money people will give them instead of trying anything new and potentially making much more.

 

[Goldenmoney]

It's been less than 2 months, aren't all console launches like this?

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

Easy there.

You are talking about the Switch doing Xbox One numbers or even perhaps more. I think it will sell comparatively with Xbox One or a bit more than Xbox One.

But it won't be more than that, in my opinion. Its best to wait until August to see its sales base.

One word: Japan

 

[Principate]

It's been less than 2 months, aren't all console launches like this?

Sorta, most are in Christmas period and peter off by January. Closest comparison is the 3DS, which was bomb regions at this point. This lead to the price cut.

 

[titiklabingapat]

I get the feeling a significant amount of scalpers are contributing to lack of Switches being available. Plus the fact that Nintendo doesn't send an ample supply to stores makes it easier to say to 3rd party support publishers, "see, you can't find out consoles on shelves; therefore, we must be doing something right." I really hope for the best for Nintendo but eventually you have to come around to the truth.

Scalpers are the new 'Nintendo is artifically limiting supply'.

 

[Waji]

It's been less than 2 months, aren't all console launches like this?

According to everyone, Nintendo included, it's the best launch they had, so there's that... at least.

 

[LFMartins86]

One word: Japan

Not only that but the Xbox isn't exactly big in Europe. The Switch had a far better launch than the Xbox One in Europe.