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[ksamedi]

xbox one has a pretty low cap compared to its predecessor. it isn't really selling great outside the us and the uk, which i think colors the perception of its performance on an english-centric forum like neogaf. microsoft really screwed up with perception at the start of the generation and they're only now starting to turn things around. depending on what scorpio is, the xbox one brand might top out at 40 million. if scorpio is a continuation of the brand, i can see more like 50 million being possible before all is said and done. so saying switch might do as well as xbox one doesn't sound like a huge endorsement. there's a big gap between that platform and ps4.

what the switch represents in japan, for instance, is a consolidation of the wii u, 3ds, and part of the ps vita platforms. it has the mainstream japanese appeal, plus nintendo's games, and also the niche japanese stuff that came to ps vita. as a result it should hit the same 20m mark that most major platforms in japan do (ps1, ps2, 3ds, ds, game boy, psp). in the west, mainstream nintendo was seen more recently in the 3ds, not the wii u. part of this is nintendo's ability to provide multiple form factors. in addition to revising the console with general improvements, additional form factors means more kinds of people paying attention. i think the switch's potential is somewhere between 65m and 80m units as a result, after about 6 years.

A good analysis but that 60-80 million seems off. Im thinking more 120-180 million. The console is already viral bu design, its selling great right out of the gate and Nintendo has tons of options for accesoires and diversification. Nintendo is going to keep delivering on the software too.

 

[Branduil]

120 million would be a new record for a Nintendo home console, and only 30 million less than the DS, which had the advantage of a massive casual base which is now all on mobile. That's a lot to ask for. The Wii could have reached that if it didn't collapse in its last three years, I suppose, so you're assuming it will follow the pace of the Wii without the late collapse. I have a hard time seeing that happening in today's market, but I guess I can't say it's impossible until the Switch stops selling out.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

A good analysis but that 60-80 million seems off. Im thinking more 120-180 million. The console is already viral bu design, its selling great right out of the gate and Nintendo has tons of options for accesoires and diversification. Nintendo is going to keep delivering on the software too.

Whoa whoa whoa whoa

Wait for at least a year before saying it will be either the highest selling console/portable console of all time or anywhere near close by it. I want switch to be a gigantic success, because it is great for Nintendo and especially for Japanese games, but let's not be to hasty here.

 

[Spyder_Monkey]

xbox one has a pretty low cap compared to its predecessor. it isn't really selling great outside the us and the uk, which i think colors the perception of its performance on an english-centric forum like neogaf. microsoft really screwed up with perception at the start of the generation and they're only now starting to turn things around. depending on what scorpio is, the xbox one brand might top out at 40 million. if scorpio is a continuation of the brand, i can see more like 50 million being possible before all is said and done. so saying switch might do as well as xbox one doesn't sound like a huge endorsement. there's a big gap between that platform and ps4.

I think even then you're overestimating the impact the Scorpio will have.

 

[Cerium]

I expect many broken Switch tablets due to this game.

I think that's MKWii.

Although it's probably possible in 8 too.

 

[Theswweet]

I don't think it's too early to say that the Switch isn't going to flop like the Wii U, but it's DEFINITELY too early to say just HOW successful it's going to be long-term. Give it until the end of the year I say.

 

[ksamedi]

Whoa whoa whoa whoa

Wait for at least a year before saying it will be either the highest selling console/portable console of all time or anywhere near close by it. I want switch to be a gigantic success, because it is great for Nintendo and especially for Japanese games, but let's not be to hasty here.

The 3ds will probably end over 70 million. The 3ds never really took off in the west like it did in Japan. It sold pretty decent but it needed a price cut right from the start.

The buzz around the Switch feels very different. It has mass appeal right out of the gate and the software pipeline is really strong in the first year. I dont think its unthinkable that Switch sells 15 million plus this fiscal year. They have loads of options to extend the lifespan of the Switch as well. Accesoires, price cuts, different form factors and loads of development power. I can see this thing last 8 years orso on the market.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

The 3ds will probably end over 70 million. The 3ds never really took off in the west like it did in Japan. It sold pretty decent but it needed a price cut right from the start.

The buzz around the Switch feels very different. It has mass appeal right out of the gate and the software pipeline is really strong in the first year. I dont think its unthinkable that Switch sells 15 million plus this fiscal year. They have loads of options to extend the lifespan of the Switch as well. Accesoires, price cuts, different form factors and loads of development power. I can see this thing last 8 years orso on the market.

You do bring up a really good point, without a doubt the switch is far stronger in the west than any recent Nintendo console. This is probably the biggest system since the Wii and DS. It is amost a perfect storm of Nintendo being culturally relevant again thanks to mobile marketing, an amazing product, and the strongest first year lineup of Nintendo.....ever. While the west can and probably will ignore it (to their own peril), Japan 3rd party will flood this with an insane lineup that puts most consoles to shame.

Also, I agree they could do form factors, they could go the direction of "switch XL" with a bigger screen or go the route of a portable console with perfect compatibility after many chip shrinkages.

 

[Calamari41]

The release schedule is a big part of the success of the Switch, and its becoming clear that "sacrificing" the Wii U's 2016 was worth it.

By comparison, at this point in the life of Wii U, we were still two solid months away from the first post-launch "major" game releases (Lego City and Monster Hunter). Aligning the launches, by the time Wii U saw Lego City and MH, the Switch will have Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8D, Minecraft, and ARMS. Not even mentioning the smaller releases, which have been amazing on Switch.

By the time the next major Wii U game (Pikmin 3) was released 9 months after launch, the Switch will additionally have Splatoon 2, Fire Emblem Warriors, Mario Odyssey, Xenoblade 2 (heh), and whatever other games they surprise us with for the holidays.

Really, the Wii U's drought was absolutely savage and killed any chance that Nintendo had of gaining mindshare in that first year. It's a different ballgame now.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

really? That sounds surprising,the confidence some people have on this system is insane

XB1 is likely at around 27 million, globally. It's honestly not going to be that much of a challenge for Nintendo to overtake its sales within a few years, even if XB1 is at 40 million+ by the end of 2018. They have zero presence in Japan and most of Europe. Meanwhile, the Switch is successful globally, even in places like the UK, where Nintendo normally struggles, big time.

 

[Empyrean Heaven]

Good to see the Switch as a success so far. Zelda and Mario Kart should keep it rolling for some time.

Now Nintendo needs to get the content rolling in fast and furious. Hopefully they're success will open up the lines to third-parties once again. For as much shitty shovelware as the Wii got there were some definite third-party gems.

 

[The Horror the horror]

Good to see the Switch as a success so far. Zelda and Mario Kart should keep it rolling for some time.

Now Nintendo needs to get the content rolling in fast and furious. Hopefully they're success will open up the lines to third-parties once again. For as much shitty shovelware as the Wii got there were some definite third-party gems.

Pretty sure third-parties adopted a monkey-see-monkey-do approach after seeing the success of games like Wii Sports, Brain Age, and Nintendogs. They assumed those were the games with motion-controls tacked on that Wii owners wanted. With established franchises like Zelda and MK8 driving sales this time around, I would hope third-parties follow suit and put some of their best IPs on there.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Pretty sure third-parties adopted a monkey-see-monkey-do approach after seeing the success of games like Wii Sports, Brain Age, and Nintendogs. They assumed those were the games with motion-controls tacked on that Wii owners wanted. With established franchises like Zelda and MK8 driving sales this time around, I would hope third-parties follow suit and put some of their best IPs on there.

Finally the sequel to M&M's Kart Racing we've been waiting for.

 

[TheFuzz]

The release schedule is a big part of the success of the Switch, and its becoming clear that "sacrificing" the Wii U's 2016 was worth it.

By comparison, at this point in the life of Wii U, we were still two solid months away from the first post-launch "major" game releases (Lego City and Monster Hunter). Aligning the launches, by the time Wii U saw Lego City and MH, the Switch will have Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8D, Minecraft, and ARMS. Not even mentioning the smaller releases, which have been amazing on Switch.

By the time the next major Wii U game (Pikmin 3) was released 9 months after launch, the Switch will additionally have Splatoon 2, Fire Emblem Warriors, Mario Odyssey, Xenoblade 2 (heh), and whatever other games they surprise us with for the holidays.

Really, the Wii U's drought was absolutely savage and killed any chance that Nintendo had of gaining mindshare in that first year. It's a different ballgame now.

Good post. The "extended launch window" we all wondered about is paying off for them big time.

 

[PapaEmeritus]

Mario Kart is so damn good, every level looks incredible, just IMO, a masterclass in design.

 

[AlexFlame116]

Looks like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is back in stock on Amazon. I had to cancel my old order which was set for delivery on either May 17th or June something. Now the new order is scheduled for this Wednesday!

So happy!

 

[awilliams213]

Looks like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is back in stock on Amazon. I had to cancel my old order which was set for delivery on either May 17th or June something. Now the new order is scheduled for this Wednesday!

So happy!

Thank you so much I checked last night and it was 1-2 month delay. I just ordered it and I should have it this Thursday.

 

[The_Endgamer]

Relevant to some of the conversation here about like games Switch should be attracting. I hope the early MK8D success spurs on a Sonic All Stars Racing sequel or Crash Team Racing sequel.

 

[Branduil]

The release schedule is a big part of the success of the Switch, and its becoming clear that "sacrificing" the Wii U's 2016 was worth it.

By comparison, at this point in the life of Wii U, we were still two solid months away from the first post-launch "major" game releases (Lego City and Monster Hunter). Aligning the launches, by the time Wii U saw Lego City and MH, the Switch will have Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8D, Minecraft, and ARMS. Not even mentioning the smaller releases, which have been amazing on Switch.

By the time the next major Wii U game (Pikmin 3) was released 9 months after launch, the Switch will additionally have Splatoon 2, Fire Emblem Warriors, Mario Odyssey, Xenoblade 2 (heh), and whatever other games they surprise us with for the holidays.

Really, the Wii U's drought was absolutely savage and killed any chance that Nintendo had of gaining mindshare in that first year. It's a different ballgame now.

Geez, it's easy to forget just how brutal the Wii U's first year lineup was. The definition of DOA.

 

[CaptainSmirnov]

Damn the fact Mario kart sold out in some places says something. Amazing system, a return to form if Nintendo keeps bringing its major 1st party and VC will hopefully come soon.

 

[Neff]

Hahahahaha genuis.

Ship 10k copies scalpers buy 5k.
Hey look it's sold out!,
3rd parties get on board
???????
Profit!

Corporate meet 'n' greets? Pah.
Presentations of hard data? For losers.
Mutual feedback? Get real.
Amicable negotiations? Yeah right.

Getting third party on board is all about pointing at empty shelves and saying 'look!'

 

[Hattori]

The release schedule is a big part of the success of the Switch, and its becoming clear that "sacrificing" the Wii U's 2016 was worth it.

By comparison, at this point in the life of Wii U, we were still two solid months away from the first post-launch "major" game releases (Lego City and Monster Hunter). Aligning the launches, by the time Wii U saw Lego City and MH, the Switch will have Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8D, Minecraft, and ARMS. Not even mentioning the smaller releases, which have been amazing on Switch.

By the time the next major Wii U game (Pikmin 3) was released 9 months after launch, the Switch will additionally have Splatoon 2, Fire Emblem Warriors, Mario Odyssey, Xenoblade 2 (heh), and whatever other games they surprise us with for the holidays.

Really, the Wii U's drought was absolutely savage and killed any chance that Nintendo had of gaining mindshare in that first year. It's a different ballgame now.

the two months before MH was all miiverse for me 😂

 

[Sammy Samusu]

I'm not sure we're quite there yet.

PS4 > Slim > Pro
XBO > Slim > Scorpio
3DS > New 3DS
2DS > 2DS XL

We are there. We just haven't noticed, lol.

 

[Lord of Ostia]

A good analysis but that 60-80 million seems off. Im thinking more 120-180 million. The console is already viral bu design, its selling great right out of the gate and Nintendo has tons of options for accesoires and diversification. Nintendo is going to keep delivering on the software too.

No way that will happen, 120-180 million is an insane prediction. You do realize those sales would make the Switch the best selling console of all time, higher than the PS2 which sold so much largely because it was a cheap DVD player with gaming functionality.

60-80 million is a good prediction, that's basically just adding the 3DS and Wii U audiences together, accounting for overlap with some new audience. That's a safe bet, very likely.

 

[Hero]

I'm not sure we're quite there yet.

I mean it's started, it's not like it's going to stop anytime soon.

PS4 > Slim > Pro
XBO > Slim > Scorpio
3DS > New 3DS
2DS > 2DS XL

We are there. We just haven't noticed, lol.

In addition to that, with the announcement of new 2DS XL, that makes six different versions of the 3DS family hardware. Anyone not expecting Switch to have revisions/upgrades is crazy.

 

[KodaRuss]

Whenever I get a switch it will probably be through Gamestop as I have a lot of credit there. So I am hoping the demands slows down just enough for me to get lucky and get one.

Anyway, my birthday is next month and I have a feeling my wife might get me one but probably not if I was a betting man.

 

[Neff]

PS4 > Slim > Pro
XBO > Slim > Scorpio
3DS > New 3DS
2DS > 2DS XL

We are there. We just haven't noticed, lol.

I still think it remains to be seen if being offered incremental leaps and being ok with them as consumers are the same thing.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Whenever I get a switch it will probably be through Gamestop as I have a lot of credit there. So I am hoping the demands slows down just enough for me to get lucky and get one.

Anyway, my birthday is next month and I have a feeling my wife might get me one but probably not if I was a betting man.

Just spend your credit on a bunch of Switch games that you can't play as a hint