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[JoshuaJSlone]

I just need to see some "lightning in a bottle" remarks and the cycle will be complete.

Well, I think that one works. We all know from Mario Kart you're more likely to get lightning if you were way behind.

You think companies are avoiding a platform for anything other than technical or financial reasons?

I'll forever be salty about things like Wii apparently being deemed not good enough for GTA, SoulCalibur, MGS, or Katamari but managing to work on PSP.

I don't think Switch is another Wii U but let's wait until after the holiday season to crown it a smash hit. This thing very well could be GCN 2.0 or Wii 2.0. Only time will tell.

Well, GCN 2.0 would be pretty surprising.

So you're saying that the Switch isn't Nintendo's fastest selling console?

It's close, but we don't have reliable numbers stating so. The place where we have the best numbers is Japan, and it's still behind Wii there. The first quarter worldwide shipment data covers different periods of time, so they're not directly comparable.

No it won't. The XBO was at 26 million in January. It'll probably be close to 40 million at the end of 2018.

FWIW, if Switch shipments managed to hit 40 million as quickly as Wii's, that would happen early 2019.

 

[Arkam]

I haven't sold a single copy of MK8D yet (I work in electronics at Walmart). I'm actually really surprised. We just have a stack of them there waiting to be purchased.

Of course, we NEVER have Switches, which doesn't help.

I bought my copy from Walmart... sorry it wasnt yours.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Well, I think that one works. We all know from Mario Kart you're more likely to get lightning if you were way behind.

lol I like this!

 

[WeirdoStalkerJr]

Nice, how you had to mislead and combine the PS4 + Xbox One total sales to make the number seem a lot more attractive than it actually is (26mil sales according to data reported from Gamespot back in January). This is a rather hypocritical stance to take when it doesn't follow your logic. Why would third parties care to invest in Xbox One when their userbase is significantly smaller than the PS4? You might as well just remain a PS4 dev as you have a better chance of hitting sales. And here you are, lumping them both together without context because 100mil sounds better than separating the consoles and giving a more detailed look.

And then you end it with the boring take "Nintendo should just go third party!" When has going third party been beneficial ever? You complain about BOTW being "safe", but you disregard how safe third party games are in general (due to wanting to chase sales)? Sega was never the same after they went third party and developed a lot of mediocre games with a few gems here and there. Nintendo would be the exact same. They would be chasing demographics and dollars instead of making good games.

I like the way you handle that console warrior. You're my hero ❤

But you are absolutely right. Sega never recovered from going third party and the fact that Dreamcast and Saturn were poorly marketed a long with massive R&D spending, contributed to what the company now has become. They are doing better but Sonic has taken a beating in the process. I doubt Sega will ever be the giant it once was, but then again miracles do happen. Like Bayonetta 2 forever being Nintendo exclusive

 

[Calm Mind]

It will outsell Xbox One's WW LTD in its second year.

This is an easy prediction to make. Especially given what Nintendo and several key 3rd parties will release on the platform in 2018.

 

[Neonep]

This is an easy prediction to make. Especially given what Nintendo and several key 3rd parties will release on the platform in 2018.

Like who? No slight, I'm just saying I might have missed something.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Yeah, with Switch blowing up globally (Xbox has less than zero presence in Japan), it's not a question of if the system outsells XB1, but when.

 

[mo60]

It will outsell Xbox One's WW LTD in its second year.

it will have to sell like close to 20 million per year for that to happen since it's likely xbox one will be between 32 and 35 million sold by the end of this year. Earliest it could do it is in early 2019.

 

[ArtHands]

Yes. This.

The people expecting third party games crack me up too. MAYBE the reason third parties arent there is that there are almost 100 million xbones and ps4 already sold. Why would a third party make games for a platform that has 1 or 2 percent of the install base and historically doesnt give 2 shits about third parties? Besides the fact that modern games cant be ported to the switch. The big announced third party game is skyrim!

Personally i find nintendo baffling. They should just make their incredible software for playstation. They are so stuck in their ways and seemingly ok with taking the money people will give them instead of trying anything new and potentially making much more.

You know PC has got the highest install base of all. Perhaps Sony should consider developing for the PC.

 

[AniHawk]

This the kind of respond you give when your super salty. You even put it in the top of your post and everything.

So why are you salty about? I wrote my previous post with realistic perceptions of how usually console sales go. I even said it will do Xbox One numbers or even better (which is no small feat) based on how its currently selling. And that was an extremely humble prediction considering the console Nintendo is coming from (Wii U that only sold 12 million lifetime). Never in my post did I discredited the Switch. And never did I said Wii or DS were failures.

I think what you wanted to hear is that it will sell PS4 numbers, which is unrealistic and will saltily come for for anyone who disagrees.

And btw, next time you feeling spicy, never put words into another persons's mouth to strengthen your argument. Its petty.

Pro-tip for future reference. 👍

xbox one has a pretty low cap compared to its predecessor. it isn't really selling great outside the us and the uk, which i think colors the perception of its performance on an english-centric forum like neogaf. microsoft really screwed up with perception at the start of the generation and they're only now starting to turn things around. depending on what scorpio is, the xbox one brand might top out at 40 million. if scorpio is a continuation of the brand, i can see more like 50 million being possible before all is said and done. so saying switch might do as well as xbox one doesn't sound like a huge endorsement. there's a big gap between that platform and ps4.

what the switch represents in japan, for instance, is a consolidation of the wii u, 3ds, and part of the ps vita platforms. it has the mainstream japanese appeal, plus nintendo's games, and also the niche japanese stuff that came to ps vita. as a result it should hit the same 20m mark that most major platforms in japan do (ps1, ps2, 3ds, ds, game boy, psp). in the west, mainstream nintendo was seen more recently in the 3ds, not the wii u. part of this is nintendo's ability to provide multiple form factors. in addition to revising the console with general improvements, additional form factors means more kinds of people paying attention. i think the switch's potential is somewhere between 65m and 80m units as a result, after about 6 years.

 

[Charles Brandon]

You're not going to win that way. Nice that you're using a feature meant for young children or those with physical handicaps to prove some bullshit console warrior point.

Come join a 200CC GAF tourney and see how casual Mario Kart is.

Er wtf?

 

[Bronetta]

Ive shown my Switch to some friends and they've been extremely impressed with the hardware and proof of concept. It really isnt a direct competitor to the traditional consoles.

Its a powerful little tablet, docks for seamless TV play. You can attach the joycons to it. Unattach them and play however you want. Split them to play 2p anytime anywhere. Attach them to the shell to create a traditional controller. Its crazy.

Its not just a handheld or a console, its so much more.

 

[xeroborn55]

Nice, how you had to mislead and combine the PS4 + Xbox One total sales to make the number seem a lot more attractive than it actually is (26mil sales according to data reported from Gamespot back in January). This is a rather hypocritical stance to take when it doesn't follow your logic. Why would third parties care to invest in Xbox One when their userbase is significantly smaller than the PS4? You might as well just remain a PS4 dev as you have a better chance of hitting sales. And here you are, lumping them both together without context because 100mil sounds better than separating the consoles and giving a more detailed look.

The point is that there are 100 milliom combined ps4s and xboxes. Game devs can easily port between the two. Most third party games come out on both platforms. Those same third party devs can thus sell to 100 million people.

How many switches are sold through? Can game devs easily port their ps4 and xbox one titles to the switch? Would it make sense for third party developers to make switch games anytime soon?

 

[Colonel Mustard]

Er wtf?

Nintendo games are as "hardcore" as you want then to be. Easy to play, difficult to master doesn't mean something is casual, it means it's designed well.

 

[Gaspard]

You're not going to win that way. Nice that you're using a feature meant for young children or those with physical handicaps to prove some bullshit console warrior point.

Come join a 200CC GAF tourney and see how casual Mario Kart is.

 

[Charles Brandon]

Nintendo games are as "hardcore" as you want then to be. Easy to play, difficult to master doesn't mean something is casual, it means it's designed well.

Why are you telling me this? Also, calm down.

 

[WeirdoStalkerJr]

Why are you telling me this? Also, calm down.

You seem stressed, play some Nintendo games and relax

 

[AniHawk]

Can game devs easily port their ps4 and xbox one titles to the switch?

it seems to be the case. it depends on the engine though. something made with sony's phyreengine isn't very easy to port (because obviously), while a ue4 game doesn't take a lot of time/overhead.

Would it make sense for third party developers to make switch games anytime soon?

if you can make a quick port based off an existing engine, then you would want to turn that ps4/xb1 userbase into a ps4/xb1/nsw userbase. yes. absolutely.

 

[Buggy Loop]

Why are you telling me this? Also, calm down.

Are you lost or something? You argue that it's not a core game because of a new mechanic for newbies. It's like saying DMC3 is not core because there's a very easy setting when you die too many times in the game.

Nobody wins online with the assist, nobody..

 

[WordAssassin]

On the new Mario Kart, it you have all the aids on it literally plays itself.

Unless there's been a new development since the last time I checked the thread, that's to aide really young kids to even be able to play. You aren't going to win using that. Some website even tested it and never once came in first.

It's like saying Super Mario 3D World is a casual game because you get a golden tanooki leaf when you die too many times on a level. Show me a casual gamer that can 100% that game. There are gnarled old hardcore gamers here that can't even complete it fully.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

Why are you telling me this? Also, calm down.

The assertion that Mario Kart isn't a core-focused game isn't accurate. The example you used, that it "plays itself" exists for people with physical handicaps and children. You aren't going to win this way.

And thanks. I'm calm.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

On the new Mario Kart, it you have all the aids on it literally plays itself.

If you fail a mission three times in Grand Theft Auto V, you can skip the entire thing. Such a casual game.

 

[AzaK]

Basically this:

We have all experienced that pain. Whilst I don't mind helping those lagging behind but in MK it is often just extremely punitive for no real reason and can get VERY frustrating.

 

[Charles Brandon]

The assertion that Mario Kart isn't a core-focused game isn't accurate. The example you used, that it "plays itself" exists for people with physical handicaps and children. You aren't going to win this way.

And thanks. I'm calm.

What assertion? I didn't say that. Someone was saying that the controls were too complicated for casual players and I said that if you put the aids on it plays itself. Is that a bullshit fanboy statement? I love Mario Kart.

I have no idea what your problem is (or the other people up there).

 

[Skittzo0413]

I played some MK8 with some friends today who basically left saying, "crap now I need to buy a Switch." The buzz is only going to keep growing as the install base does too, since the device is basically built to be viral. This really has the potential to be bigger than the Wii.

I am pretty encouraged by this news. I hear and see no non gaf buzz( i am in the wrong age demo I think to hear and see Switch, as this seems to broadly appeal to kids and teens) about the switch, but as long as someone is buying them en masse or at least draining supplied stock, that is good news. more units sold=moreproft for games made for the platform=more games= Metroid.

Actually according to Nintendo's survey data the bolded is not the case, 70% of Switch owners are in their 20s and 30s.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

What assertion? I didn't say that. Someone was saying that the controls were too complicated for casual players and I said that if you put the aids on it plays itself. Is that a bullshit fanboy statement? I love Mario Kart.

I'm sorry then. I didn't read your statement that way. Seemingly others didn't as well. My bad.

What's your friend code? Let's play some Mario Kart.

 

[VanWinkle]

I bought my copy from Walmart... sorry it wasnt yours.

As am I, my friend. As am I.

 

[Charles Brandon]

I'm sorry then. I didn't read your statement that way. Seemingly others didn't as well. My bad.

What's your friend code? Let's play some Mario Kart.

Ok apology accepted. I'll keep my friend code to myself though.

 

[VariantX]

"But X game is on WiiU!"

What kind of person is gonna go out and buy a WiiU right now?

This. No one gives a shit about the Wii U relative to the other two consoles just by looking at how many opted for the other hardware." X " game might as well be brand spanking new to the overwhelming majority of the market.

 

[Vilix]

You seem stressed, play some Nintendo games and relax

But for the love of God do not play a MK8D GAF race if you're already stressed.

 

[VariantX]

But for the love of God do not play a MK8D GAF race if you're already stressed.

Stay away from mario party too.

 

[WeirdoStalkerJr]

Stay away from mario party too.

Both those games are savage

 

[MegaManTrigger]

The point is that there are 100 milliom combined ps4s and xboxes. Game devs can easily port between the two. Most third party games come out on both platforms. Those same third party devs can thus sell to 100 million people.

How many switches are sold through? Can game devs easily port their ps4 and xbox one titles to the switch? Would it make sense for third party developers to make switch games anytime soon?

"Easily porting" between the two (except for the circumstances where that's feasible both technologically as well as financially) ignores that it will ultimately depend on the engine used for the game, as well as the hardware power that devs have access to. To a lesser extent, financial feasibility is also taken into account, as ultimately, you still need to invest time and money and see a return on it when porting over to another console.

In terms of the Switch, porting games to that console will again, depend on the engine (and access to tools), as well as hardware power. Also, you're forgetting that the Switch just released almost two months ago. 2.74mil doesn't sound good now (despite the fact that this is much better selling in the first months vs. the Wii U, and that console had plenty of launch ports of 3rd party games), but If the sales momentum keeps up, you don't think we'll start seeing more third party developers in on the Switch? That being said, if it makes sense, you will see third party devs work on the Switch.

 

[CaviarMeths]

Easy there.

You are talking about the Switch doing Xbox One numbers or even perhaps more. I think it will sell comparatively with Xbox One or a bit more than Xbox One.

But it won't be more than that, in my opinion. Its best to wait until August to see its sales base.

This started a bit of a back and forth, so I should clarify. I meant that Switch would hit 10 million LTD with Black Friday sales. I don't think that's a particularly outlandish prediction. I believe that if they're able to keep up with demand and Splatoon 2 has a similar content rollout as the first one, Switch can enjoy unseasonably strong sales in the summer.

The point is that there are 100 milliom combined ps4s and xboxes. Game devs can easily port between the two. Most third party games come out on both platforms. Those same third party devs can thus sell to 100 million people.

How many switches are sold through? Can game devs easily port their ps4 and xbox one titles to the switch? Would it make sense for third party developers to make switch games anytime soon?

This dude tho lol. Like what are you even trying to argue here? Yes, it makes sense for 3rd party publishers to release content for a new piece of hardware that is selling well. How is this even a question? Did you also ask why publishers were bothering with PS4 when PS3+360 had a base of 160 million?

 

[Astral Dog]

Yeah, with Switch blowing up globally (Xbox has less than zero presence in Japan), it's not a question of if the system outsells XB1, but when.

really? That sounds surprising,the confidence some people have on this system is insane

 

[Boss Doggie]

So just looking at replies since I don't really like to post here but since this thread has it in abundance I do wonder...


...where are people getting this "all of Nintendo products lately are doing artificial scarcity?" Did they watch an online video and suddenly think they are business majors?

 

[Astral Dog]

This. No one gives a shit about the Wii U relative to the other two consoles just by looking at how many opted for the other hardware." X " game might as well be brand spanking new to the overwhelming majority of the market.

Im surprised considering how much the Switch takes from the Wii U

Spoiler

but i liked it so its fine 😃

 

[Jaded Alyx]

So just looking at replies since I don't really like to post here but since this thread has it in abundance I do wonder...


...where are people getting this "all of Nintendo products lately are doing artificial scarcity?" Did they watch an online video and suddenly think they are business majors?

People said this during the Wii years when it was selling record breaking numbers every month, so that should tell you all you need to know about people who think that way.

I.e. they are stupid.

 

[AniHawk]

So just looking at replies since I don't really like to post here but since this thread has it in abundance I do wonder...


...where are people getting this "all of Nintendo products lately are doing artificial scarcity?" Did they watch an online video and suddenly think they are business majors?

i really think people have a hard time rationalizing when nintendo finds success. it happened in the wii era to a pretty ridiculous degree, including talk about it not really being a 'next-gen' system for a while.

 

[Hero]

i really think people have a hard time rationalizing when nintendo finds success. it happened in the wii era to a pretty ridiculous degree, including talk about it not really being a 'next-gen' system for a while.

Even to this day you have the revisionist shit like nobody bought non-Nintendo games on Wii or think that Wii didn't count to show the drop between Wii/360/PS3 and Wii U/Xb1/PS4.

 

[ggx2ac]

I played some MK8 with some friends today who basically left saying, "crap now I need to buy a Switch." The buzz is only going to keep growing as the install base does too, since the device is basically built to be viral. This really has the potential to be bigger than the Wii.

This is reminding me too much of the Wii where once people got to try out Wii Sports they then wanted to buy a Wii.

Of course we can only say it has the potential to do well because too many people here would be triggered if it was called the next Wii.

 

[Spyder_Monkey]

So just looking at replies since I don't really like to post here but since this thread has it in abundance I do wonder...


...where are people getting this "all of Nintendo products lately are doing artificial scarcity?" Did they watch an online video and suddenly think they are business majors?

Salt. Wait am I allowed to say that on there? But it's the case nonetheless. You can dismiss anything by saying it doesn't count for whatever arbitrary reason.

 

[Speely]

What a thread. Man, any time a platform enjoys some promising numbers, it seems like there are people falling all over themselves to try to explain why the numbers mean nothing.

I don't get the motivation. Like, I really don't.

Spoiler

Oh wait yes I do.

More on-topic: I think my initial estimation of 10m by the end of 2017 is a bit conservative, but I feel comfortable keeping it. I sorta feel like it could do 12m by the end of the year, but manufacturing constraints and all that... plus who knows what kind of unexpected mindshare shift could happen at E3? Nintendo is certainly not guaranteed a success just yet, and Sony/MS have certainly not forgotten about Nintendo or written them off.

End of the day, I really don't see this train stopping any time soon. Now that games like MK8D are dropping (which has INSANE viral marketing built into it, basically) the demand is only going to increase. I don't even think it will hit its stride this year, but instead in 2018 when all the summer-thru-holiday sales have resulted in even MORE people out in public playing their Switches, more and more with one another. There is a real snowball effect that could happen with this console like no other. Proximity is good marketing. I think the Switch does 20-25m in 2018.

It helps that this thing is a joy to play games on.

 

[Tripon]

TOKYO— Nintendo Co. NTDOY 5.62% said it used aircraft to ship its new Switch videogame machine in its first month on the market, an unusual and costly logistics measure responding to unexpectedly high demand.

Earlier, Nintendo said it shipped 2.74 million units of the Switch in the month after it went on sale March 3, up from an initial plan of two million.

“We carried some of the Switches by plane in March to serve our customers more promptly,” a company spokesman said. He said Nintendo switched back in April to less-expensive sea freight to replenish store shelves.

Ace Research Institute analyst Hideki Yasuda said further use of airfreight was possible because the item remains hard to find at retailers globally. “Air is a big profit-squeezer because it could cost additional ¥5,000 per unit,” or about $45, he said.

“We think the 10 million represents a starting point only,” said Macquarie Capital Securities analyst David Gibson. He expects sales of 14.5 million units or more in the fiscal year.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ninten...-plane-to-quickly-meet-high-demand-1493619178

 

[Hattori]

but that doesn't fit the artificial scarcity theory...

 

[Hilarion]

Are you lost or something? You argue that it's not a core game because of a new mechanic for newbies. It's like saying DMC3 is not core because there's a very easy setting when you die too many times in the game.

Nobody wins online with the assist, nobody..

Why is saying that it's easily assessable somehow an insult? Casual gaming is no less gaming than "core" gaming and shouldn't be seen as any less of a game. Brain Age was one of my favorite games of the 2000s and I'd easily take it any day over any number of "core" experiences that were heavily praised.

 

[atr0cious]

but that doesn't fit the artificial scarcity theory...

They were from the Uncle Scrooge-like money bin full of extra switches.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

but that doesn't fit the artificial scarcity theory...

I got this.....

Nintendo shipped consoles by plane to sell as many consoles as possible, but then they paid employees to buy game consoles all over the world to create artificial scarcity. Then they planned a gigantic cabal with the scalpers and the illuminati to buy the excess stock and to sell it on eBay. To get the attach rate high, they added several zeros in the Microsoft excel sheet that they send to all the retailers to reiterate corporate talking points. Then they messaged their insiders in the corporate media to create hype for the system by proclaiming shortages.

 

[Brandon F]

Basically this:

I expect many broken Switch tablets due to this game.

 

[FinalAres]

Ive shown my Switch to some friends and they've been extremely impressed with the hardware and proof of concept. It really isnt a direct competitor to the traditional consoles.

Its a powerful little tablet, docks for seamless TV play. You can attach the joycons to it. Unattach them and play however you want. Split them to play 2p anytime anywhere. Attach them to the shell to create a traditional controller. Its crazy.

Its not just a handheld or a console, its so much more.

I don't disagree but I've been surprised how much it feel like a console rather than a handheld. Which is great tbh, that's whati want. I think it's because of the game's, they're designed as console games.