What a thread. Man, any time a platform enjoys some promising numbers, it seems like there are people falling all over themselves to try to explain why the numbers mean nothing.
I don't get the motivation. Like, I really don't.
More on-topic: I think my initial estimation of 10m by the end of 2017 is a bit conservative, but I feel comfortable keeping it. I sorta feel like it could do 12m by the end of the year, but manufacturing constraints and all that... plus who knows what kind of unexpected mindshare shift could happen at E3? Nintendo is certainly not guaranteed a success just yet, and Sony/MS have certainly not forgotten about Nintendo or written them off.
End of the day, I really don't see this train stopping any time soon. Now that games like MK8D are dropping (which has INSANE viral marketing built into it, basically) the demand is only going to increase. I don't even think it will hit its stride this year, but instead in 2018 when all the summer-thru-holiday sales have resulted in even MORE people out in public playing their Switches, more and more with one another. There is a real snowball effect that could happen with this console like no other. Proximity is good marketing. I think the Switch does 20-25m in 2018.
It helps that this thing is a joy to play games on.