xbox one has a pretty low cap compared to its predecessor. it isn't really selling great outside the us and the uk, which i think colors the perception of its performance on an english-centric forum like neogaf. microsoft really screwed up with perception at the start of the generation and they're only now starting to turn things around. depending on what scorpio is, the xbox one brand might top out at 40 million. if scorpio is a continuation of the brand, i can see more like 50 million being possible before all is said and done. so saying switch might do as well as xbox one doesn't sound like a huge endorsement. there's a big gap between that platform and ps4.
what the switch represents in japan, for instance, is a consolidation of the wii u, 3ds, and part of the ps vita platforms. it has the mainstream japanese appeal, plus nintendo's games, and also the niche japanese stuff that came to ps vita. as a result it should hit the same 20m mark that most major platforms in japan do (ps1, ps2, 3ds, ds, game boy, psp). in the west, mainstream nintendo was seen more recently in the 3ds, not the wii u. part of this is nintendo's ability to provide multiple form factors. in addition to revising the console with general improvements, additional form factors means more kinds of people paying attention. i think the switch's potential is somewhere between 65m and 80m units as a result, after about 6 years.
A good analysis but that 60-80 million seems off. Im thinking more 120-180 million. The console is already viral bu design, its selling great right out of the gate and Nintendo has tons of options for accesoires and diversification. Nintendo is going to keep delivering on the software too.