Support NeoGAF

[Ass of Can Whooping]

All asked and answered, you just don't agree with the answer. Since you have no valid counter, this is your pointless response.

Still waiting on the Y/N

 

[Darsxx82]

This?
That's 2023 forecast, I don't think they are missing December.

And we don't know if it is including it either. So it is a prediction until November.

That said, Ampere's quote was only meant to demonstrate to him how far off his 5-6 million for 2023 (made just over a month ago) figures was....

 

[CatLady]

For the record, I don't really expect that it's a definite absolute given that Microsoft is going 3P ASAP and dropping Xbox today. There are patterns that they might do it (I personally compared end of Zune vs the last holiday console discounts), but nothing is definite yet.

Really? Reading through this thread I got the impression it was already a done deal. MS has already closed the Xbox hardware division, and all their teams are busy working on porting all of their games to PS5.

Xbox may go 3rd party someday but porting a game, likely Hi-Fi Rush to Nintendo, is NOT proof they are going 3rd party. It's more like wishful thinking by Sony fanboys than actual proof and continuously repeating it as if it's a fact is not going to make it happen.

 

[Tsaki]

Exactly. Microsoft literally told us this ~40 days ago. They told this to their investors.

But some people didn't want to believe it and instead clung to Phil Spencer's weak and half-assed debunking that he did casually on Twitter to make sure Holiday console sales do not get affected.

It was pretty telling that he talked about GP on other consoles and not games specifically.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

Even if the Xbox division is loosing money, it doesn’t seem to be significant enough, otherwise they would’ve shut it down by now, it’s not like they don’t know how to get rid of projects that are not successful…

I think Xbox has been doing “good enough” for decades and now they finally decided to throw some real money at it and see what happens.

They decide to throw money at it only after it has fallen into dead last...

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

MS has already closed the Xbox hardware division, and all their teams are busy working on porting all of their games to PS5.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

If the Xbox Series sold 21 million units in its first 31 months, does anyone expect it to double that with its next 31 months?

It's already in decline and a pretty sharp one at that. With PS5 Pro and Switch 2, I expect that decline to be precipitous.

I don't expect it to have a life cycle that's significantly longer than 6 years, so is the final 10 months of the XBS life going to make up the difference in the decline experienced during the 31 months since the graph we saw?

No, it's not. 40 million is a pipe dream at this point, even with 15 percent decreases year after year. The reality is the drop off is going to be significant in 2024 and even more significant in 2025.

They weren't able to sellout even after dropping the price to 400 dollars and now the price has largely returned to previous msrp.

The math doesn't add up to 40 million units and honestly, I'll be surprised if they hit 35 million. Even with an extended life cycle, the drop off is still going to be there and there is a limit to how much they can drop the price and a limit to how effective the price drops will be.

 

[Darsxx82]

I also love how you anticipate that they sold 1 million in December, which they almost certainly didn't after what we've seen from their UK numbers.

What I love is how you have the need to adjust your arguments when the numbers stop adding up

Then, I have not said 1 million for December, I have said between 600 and 1 million worldwide. In the UK alone there have already been 145K for December... And add + 500K minimun in USA (+resto Of the world?) More than 600K is a sure bet i think

PS. You dub? It's no surprise. We just have to think that you are the one who is defending that MS is going to end XSeries and stop making console hardware before 2027... You will have to base that statement on something. Even if it is in inventions

 

[yurinka]

MS back catalog?

Basically all back catalog of Minecraft games, Double Fine games, Ninja Theory games, Zenimax games, Activision Blizzard games already are on PS, same goes with all their indie temporal console exclusives. Many of them are even in PS+.

 

[Heisenberg007]

It was pretty telling that he talked about GP on other consoles and not games specifically.

No, he mentioned both. He said "first party experiences and subscription services."



He said it in the context that "Xbox console audience is not growing" and that Microsoft wants to drive "high-margin sales on PlayStation and Nintendo." (Source)

This was said during Wells Fargo Investors Conference. Full recording here: https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1643204&tp_key=6a9bad458f

 

[Fabieter]

We have it now. It’s just another option on PC.

And who is “they”? PC is an open platform. There is no “they” calling the shots like on PlayStation/Xbox.

Pubs can enforce it like they did with steam.

 

[Tsaki]

No, he mentioned both. He said "first party experiences and subscription services."



He said it in the context that "Xbox console audience is not growing" and that Microsoft wants to drive "high-margin sales on PlayStation and Nintendo." (Source)

This was said during Wells Fargo Investors Conference. Full recording here: https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1643204&tp_key=6a9bad458f

No I'm talking about the Spencer interview he did after Stuart had his. Didn't he specifically shut down GP on competitors but did not specify about 1st party games?

 

[THE DUCK]

Still waiting on the Y/N

The answer is no, it's not the same as gamepass. No local game storage/playing means its a completely different kind of service. It is really not that complicated for most people.

Are you saying that xbox game cloud on a samsung tv is the same as playing locally? We both know it's not and your position is purely semantics.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

What I love is how you have the need to adjust your arguments when the numbers stop adding up

Then, I have not said 1 million for December, I have said between 600 and 1 million worldwide. In the UK alone there have already been 145K for December... And add + 500K minimun in USA (+resto Of the world?) More than 600K is a sure bet i think

PS. You dub? It's no surprise. We just have to think that you are the one who is defending that MS is going to end XSeries and stop making console hardware before 2027... You will have to base that statement on something. Even if it is in inventions

How have I adjusted my argument?

You said between 600k and 1 million. Even if I gave you 500K for the US and 145K for UK, there is no chance the rest of the world gives it what it needs to hit a million. I think you are still out here with the idea that Xbox is selling in any significant numbers outside of North America and the UK. If they sold 145K in the UK in December, their outside of North America numbers are certainly under 145K total.

Break down the flaw in my logic.

• We got official numbers at the end of June that stated 21 million units.
• June makes 31 months on market.
• That is a pace of 677K units per month.
• The Xbox was in decline in every region in 2023, so the rate in 2023 is going to be lower than the overall rate.
• Keeping that in mind we know that if the XBS kept pace with previous years it would hit 24.38 million units in November.
• But again since we know that Xbox has been in decline, the reality is that it's going to be lower than 24.38 million units.
• But let's play dumb and pretend like the XBS isn't decline. If it did 24.38 million units in its first 36 months and matched that for the next 36 months it would hit just under 50 million units in 6 years.
• Now let's go back to reality for a second and recognize the decline, let's analyze the first two years based on known rates
  • The XBS had to have sold a minimum of 16.25 units in its first 24 months on market, because we know that it declined in year 3 and we know how many units it sold in the first 31 months.
  • 7.6 million (all of 2023) + 16.25 million (first 24 months) + a generious 1 million units in December of 2022 = 24.85 million units.
  • Let's assume a yearly decline of 15%
  • That takes us to 31.31 million by the end of 2024 with 6.46 million units sold this year.
  • With 5.491 million units sold in 2025, that brings the total to 36.801 million units.
  • With 4.667 million units sold in 2026, that brings the total to 41.468 million units.
  • 2027 will likely bring new consoles but the reality is that the decline is going to be sharper than 15% a year, once you hit decline, the decline almost always increases YoY and if we look at the roadmap of the next couple years there are reasons to believe the decline will be greater than 15 percent.
    • PS5 Pro
    • Greater PS5 discounting
    • Switch 2
    • Grand Theft Auto 6 is going to propel PS5 and PS5 Pro in particular much faster than XBS
    • No games on the magnitude of Starfield or Halo Infinite on the horizon

Based on this analysis, which was already overly generous, the absolute most I could see the Series selling is 42 million units, but the reality is probably closer to 30-35 million, as we'll see steep declines as the years progress.

 

[Tsaki]

So it turns out it's actually HFR on PS5 and not Switch? Maybe?

 

[Alan Wake]

The PS5 and the Xbox have the same AMD chips inside them. Consoles are pretty boring and interchangeable these days.

There's not a single Xbox exclusive that you couldn't get to run on a PS5 with minimal work.

Of course, I'm not questioning that at all. I'm just saying that if they start releasing first party games on other platforms or if Game Pass is on other platforms, owning an Xbox is pretty much useless. I think that would be a shame. Then they're not a competitor to Sony and Nintendo anymore and gosh, this industri needs competition.

Xbox has been my primary console since 2002 because I've not only enjoyed the games but the ecosystem and the controller as well as Microsoft's approach to gaming in general. I'd prefer if they continued as a console manufacturer.

 

[Heisenberg007]

No I'm talking about the Spencer interview he did after Stuart had his. Didn't he specifically shut down GP on competitors but did not specify about 1st party games?

Yep, exactly. That is partially the reason I called it a weak and half-assed debunking as it did not debunk everything that was said.

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

The answer is no, it's not the same as gamepass. No local game storage/playing means its a completely different kind of service. It is really not that complicated for most people.

Are you saying that xbox game cloud on a samsung tv is the same as playing locally? We both know it's not and your position is purely semantics.

I didn't ask if it was the same as gamepass. I asked does the platform give you instant access to hundreds of games regardless of when you subscribed

If your answer to that is genuinley a no then you really are daft

 

[Heisenberg007]

So it turns out it's actually HFR on PS5 and not Switch? Maybe?

 

[Darsxx82]

Mibu’s whole point was about a decline (albeit, perhaps a little significant). You laughed at the notion of declination entirely - where this all began…

So, I’ll make it easier - if the Series consoles close between 40 and 50 million (what I expect), what’s a ballpark for next gen (particularly if you’re predicting no notable decline)? How will they achieve it?

Bro, you just have to search this same thread and you would get the answer. It is clear that trying hard is not your best value

Well, I'll save you effort. First, I would never make a prediction for sure about what figures a next new generation XBOX console would reach. Among other reasons because there are many circumstances and conditions that should be known to do so.

-Release date.
-Strategy with exclusives
-Type of hardware that MS proposes.
-MS Gamepass Strategy

It all depends on what type of product MS wants to sell. A product/console with the goal of selling 30-40 million?? So it's clear to me that its strategy of releasing its first party games on PS/Switch sooner or later would make sense.
MS wants to sell a product/console with the potential to sell 50-60+ million?? So launching as many exclusives as possible will be necessary (+marketing, +innovative hardware).
At this point I don't know where MS's strategy is with the next Xbox console. I am only clear that there will be a new Xbox console and that, even in the worst case imaginable, it will sell more than those 10-15 million during its lifetime that Mibu defend like an absoluta certain...

From here, my question to you is. Do you agree that a next XBOX, regardless of the greater effort MS could to make it successful, (exclusives, hardware, marketing...) will have a maximum ceiling of 10-15 million? Because of your impetus only addressing me but not to him is what I understand

 

[Pelta88]

Klob is so pissed he's going to try to go a day without making free marketing materials for MS.

The fact that klob spearheads the era, xb, conversation is kinda revealing. They focus solely on the parent companies financing and the quantity of ip as opposed to quality. And that's after the court docs which showed that as a division they're hemorrhaging support, mindshare, sales, and momentum. The documents lay out in detail an exit plan if certain milestones aren't met.

But they're acting surprised and shocked.

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

So it turns out it's actually HFR on PS5 and not Switch? Maybe?

AVENGERSSSSSSS!

Assemble

 

[ulantan]

So it turns out it's actually HFR on PS5 and not Switch? Maybe?

We would be entering the endgame front Microsoft as a console manufacturer sooner rather than later.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

Exactly. Microsoft literally told us this ~40 days ago. They told this to their investors.

But some people didn't want to believe it and instead clung to Phil Spencer's weak and half-assed debunking that he did casually on Twitter to make sure Holiday console sales do not get affected.

At the same time, Microsoft needs to understand that without Xbox the console there is virtually NO incentive to participate in their ecosystem. PC gamers are always going to prefer Steam/GOG. Don't even try to tell me that people are going to spend $17 a month when their only option is to stream....

 

[Interfectum]

 

[DeaDPo0L84]

Microsoft by way of bags of cash own a lot of successful IP, unfortunately it has not proven to push hardware sales, so the natural next step is to see how to take advantage of the new IP they own, putting certain games on other platforms is a perfectly reasonable thing to do.

 

[Banjo64]

you have the need to adjust your arguments when the numbers stop adding up

A fan of Xbox of all companies coming out with this

game sales > player numbers > total number of active reloads in Gears 5 > ‘it’s profitable… to us.’ > engagement > people who thought about installing the game but ultimately didn’t

 

[Mr. PlayStation]

I really do think Microsoft is going to redefine what it means to be a platform holder moving forward.

They aren't abandoning their platform/hardware but they also aren't going to be afraid to publish games on rival platforms.

Wouldn't it take away the incentive to own an Xbox/produce an Xbox console?

 

[jroc74]

Clever pics - always the sign of those who can't articulate a position that actually makes sense. Thanks for confirming.

When ppl give actual proof and you continue to ignore it....what else is left?

So it turns out it's actually HFR on PS5 and not Switch? Maybe?

Welp...

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Bro, you just have to search this same thread and you would get the answer. It is clear that trying hard is not your best value

Well, I'll save you effort. First, I would never make a prediction for sure about what figures a next new generation XBOX console would reach. Among other reasons because there are many circumstances and conditions that should be known to do so.

-Release date.
-Strategy with exclusives
-Type of hardware that MS proposes.
-MS Gamepass Strategy

It all depends on what type of product MS wants to sell. A product/console with the goal of selling 30-40 million?? So it's clear to me that its strategy of releasing its first party games on PS/Switch sooner or later would make sense.
MS wants to sell a product/console with the potential to sell 50-60+ million?? So launching as many exclusives as possible will be necessary (+marketing, +innovative hardware).
At this point I don't know where MS's strategy is with the next Xbox console. I am only clear that there will be a new Xbox console and that, even in the worst case imaginable, it will sell more than those 10-15 million during its lifetime that Mibu defend like an absoluta certain...

From here, my question to you is. Do you agree that a next XBOX, regardless of the greater effort MS could to make it successful, (exclusives, hardware, marketing...) will have a maximum ceiling of 10-15 million? Because of your impetus only addressing me but not to him is what I understand

My estimation based on next gen would be based on the XBS selling 30-35 million. If that is the case as I think I've painted it pretty accurately, then yeah, I do think the next xbox would top out at between 10-15 million.

Nor do I think that is outrageous.

Here are consoles that sold in the 30-35 million range

Sega Genesis - 30 million, both the saturn and dreamcast sold less than 10 million
Nintendo 64 - 32 million, Gamecube sold 21.74 million units

If Microsoft is dropping games on other platforms, it'll reduce their numbers that much faster. I think both Nintendo and Sega were in better positions than Microsoft coming off the Genesis and the N64.

 

[IDKFA]

Makes sense.

Microsoft is more concerned with software/sub sales than selling consoles.

They'll still make content that releases on Xbox (and PC via steam) before PS and Nintendo, but they'll just release older titles on other platforms to increase revenue.

Either that or this is simply referring to AB games only, or it could all be BS.

 

[OmegaSupreme]

Almost reads like a parody! Can one really be that much of a zealot?

Doesn't read too far off from some on this very forum.

 

[Nonehxc]

Meltdowns incoming if true.

Wonder how the most slimy will spin this, because the tables will turn doing cartwheels.

Imagine the next PR campaign among paid zealots:

'GOTY!!! Buy the new Halo!!!

...on PS6'

 

[Reave]

I can't imagine PS5/Switch sales for Hi-Fi Rush will be worth all the confusion and backlash Microsoft would potentially cause if this is true.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I can't imagine PS5/Switch sales for Hi-Fi Rush will be worth all the confusion and backlash Microsoft would potentially cause if this is true.

If this is true, it's not limited to Hi-Fi Rush...

 

[dead monkey uk]

So it turns out it's actually HFR on PS5 and not Switch? Maybe?

PS+ day one launch wound be entertaining.

 

[GHG]

PS+ day one launch wound be entertaining.

 

[HeWhoWalks]

Bro, you just have to search this same thread and you would get the answer. It is clear that trying hard is not your best value

Well, I'll save you effort. First, I would never make a prediction for sure about what figures a next new generation XBOX console would reach. Among other reasons because there are many circumstances and conditions that should be known to do so.

-Release date.
-Strategy with exclusives
-Type of hardware that MS proposes.
-MS Gamepass Strategy

It all depends on what type of product MS wants to sell. A product/console with the goal of selling 30-40 million?? So it's clear to me that its strategy of releasing its first party games on PS/Switch sooner or later would make sense.
MS wants to sell a product/console with the potential to sell 50-60+ million?? So launching as many exclusives as possible will be necessary (+marketing, +innovative hardware).
At this point I don't know where MS's strategy is with the next Xbox console. I am only clear that there will be a new Xbox console and that, even in the worst case imaginable, it will sell more than those 10-15 million during its lifetime that Mibu defend like an absoluta certain...

From here, my question to you is. Do you agree that a next XBOX, regardless of the greater effort MS could to make it successful, (exclusives, hardware, marketing...) will have a maximum ceiling of 10-15 million? Because of your impetus only addressing me but not to him is what I understand

I didn’t give a final number for next gen because I need to observe how things go, but I expect enough of a drop for things to be notable. Difference is, I didn’t laugh at someone’s notion because I don’t wear my preferences like underwear. It’s fine to simply disagree.

Ultimately, I expect a decline from this gen to next, based on what’s been happening at Xbox and never abandoned that point. Mibu is in the same boat, even if he expects a bigger decline than myself.

 

[Reave]

If this is true, it's not limited to Hi-Fi Rush...

Yep. Just saying that if Hi-Fi Rush is the first out of the gate with this new strategy, I can't imagine it would be worth the controversy that would follow.

 

[dead monkey uk]

If this is true, it's not limited to Hi-Fi Rush...

Anyone else think the endgame is Redfall Game of the Year Edition.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Yep. Just saying that if Hi-Fi Rush is the first out of the gate with this new strategy, I can't imagine it would be worth the controversy that would follow.

If HiFi Rush is announced for PS5, it is a soft announcement that they are in fact going 3rd party. It's a soft announcement as in it won't be joined with the discontinuation of the XBS, but it'll have the same effective meaning.

 

[Mr Moose]

Yep. Just saying that if Hi-Fi Rush is the first out of the gate with this new strategy, I can't imagine it would be worth the controversy that would follow.

It's not the first.

 

[analog_future]

Wouldn't it take away the incentive to own an Xbox/produce an Xbox console?

It would take away incentive to own an Xbox, yes.

But Microsoft's approach for the last several years now has not been to sell Xbox hardware, but to get Game Pass into as many households as possible.

As I said in this thread a few times now, I do see Microsoft de-prioritizing their hardware investment and no longer trying to compete in the cutting edge, "fastest console in the world" space. I think Xbox will become just another option rather than THE primary option to access Game Pass/Xbox Games Studios games. Again, that's kind of been Xbox's whole mantra for years now. They don't care where you play, and they want you to be able to play on every single device available to you.

 

[BrunoCoel]

So it turns out it's actually HFR on PS5 and not Switch? Maybe?

Never bet against PS5.

 

[jroc74]

I can't imagine PS5/Switch sales for Hi-Fi Rush will be worth all the confusion and backlash Microsoft would potentially cause if this is true.

I said it recently, some folks like to talk about revenue....well here you go.

In other words....money talks.

On a related note, Its just wild how the talk went from CoD being exclusive...to this. I remember some of us saying when the acquisition was announce CoD being exclusive would be risky, a bad move.

.....some ppl still think it's possible, part of some next gen strategy by MS to sell Xbox consoles starting in 2027, 2028....

Its been a wild 2 years.

 

[Reave]

It's not the first.

I think you know what I mean. If the launch of Hi-Fi Rush ends up marking the beginning of an uptick in Xbox games coming to PlayStation and/or Nintendo, that is a newer strategy/vision for Xbox that doesn't compare to their previous multiplatform offerings.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

That's what they almost did though. They decided to shut down the division during last generation, until Phil Spencer came up with the Game Pass / 3 billion gamers pitch.

So Microsoft bought into this new vision, decided to fund it, and gave it a few years to see how it goes. Now they are realizing that the plan wasn't as solid.

They were having "hard discussions on P&L" and Satya Nadella has also removed Game Pass growth from his bonus KPIs. They've clearly lost a lot of faith in that plan, which is now we're seeing the pivot.

Xbox has grown so big that they wouldn't be able to simply shut down the division at this point. They'll have to lay off nearly 25K people otherwise. But abandoning the hardware and becoming a third-party game publisher that publishes on every platform (much like EA) seems like the more logical plan that may help them increase revenue and, more importantly, profitability.

That's what Tim Stuart also told the investors last month.

Not to mention people are looking to get rid of subscription services. Not add them.

if Xbox had added a significant number of subscribers they would have announced it to the moon.

 

[LordCBH]

So it turns out it's actually HFR on PS5 and not Switch? Maybe?

I hope they do a physical release if it comes to PS5. I wanted a physical release last year when they shadow dropped it on Gamepass, but they never bothered to do it.

 

[xHunter]

So it turns out it's actually HFR on PS5 and not Switch? Maybe?

adamsapple
Might wanna redo your gif, just in case.

 

[Darsxx82]

A fan of Xbox of all companies coming out with this

game sales > player numbers > total number of active reloads in Gears 5 > ‘it’s profitable… to us.’ > engagement > people who thought about installing the game but ultimately didn’t

I was thinking of understanding what was the reason for distorting, misinterpreting and ignoring the context of that phrase...... But I saw that it was you and so there was no need to understand