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June 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 12th

J

Javin98

Banned
Welfare said:
It's a guarantee that the PS4 stays down YoY until a price drop/Neo. It sold 218k in July 2015, and even if the PS4 were to hold steady with its weekly average from June to July (46,900), it would do 187,600 (Actually really close to what it did in July 2014). I'll be doing the June to July weekly average comparison shortly, but just to quickly guess before I do it, the weekly average drop might cause the PS4 to be somewhere around 150k in July.
Click to expand...
Just saying. It's just a trend for the first half of 2016, I am not going to use it to make my predictions. :p

Also, Ryng, I've been noticing this for a long time, but why do you often leave out "-ed" in past tenses and such? Are you using Google Translate? :p

Edit: Whoops, looks like the PS4 actually did poorly in April, but decently in March. Ryng's personal expectations were right. Still, I find it hilarious and sad that the PS4 just overperforms for two months, underperforms for another two, overperforms in May, then back to underperforming in June. Sad because it is so hard to predict. :p
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Welfare said:
Nah, it'll be down. There were two price cuts in June, one right at the start and one right after E3. Unless Amazon Prime Day pushed tons of XB1's, I'd expect the average to drop as well.
Click to expand...

There were two price drops? I only remember the one. What was the first one?
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Welfare said:
It's a guarantee that the PS4 stays down YoY until a price drop/Neo. It sold 218k in July 2015, and even if the PS4 were to hold steady with its weekly average from June to July (46,900), it would do 187,600 (Actually really close to what it did in July 2014). I'll be doing the June to July weekly average comparison shortly, but just to quickly guess before I do it, the weekly average drop might cause the PS4 to be somewhere around 150k in July.
Click to expand...

Actually, PS4 always sold worse than what sold in 2014 in 2016. Only during Uncharted 4 month it did better, so under 2014 sales should be expect.

Anyway, i think it won't that low to 150k. This June was not as good as others years, so i don't expect a big drop in weekly sales. I would expect in the 160-180k range.
.

Welfare said:
Nah, it'll be down. There were two price cuts in June, one right at the start and one right after E3. Unless Amazon Prime Day pushed tons of XB1's, I'd expect the average to drop as well.
Click to expand...

Well i mean i think is obvius weekly sales well be definitively WAY less than in June.

First of all because June official pricedrop, second because the promotions in June were way better, third because the slim in August, and of course because June is almost always a better month.

Should be again around 2014 numbers imo.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Javin98 said:
Also, Ryng, I've been noticing this for a long time, but why do you often leave out "-ed" in past tenses and such? Are you using Google Translate? :p
Click to expand...

Because there is that stupid rule of using "ed" for the pastle usually :p and now i can't imagine how is Rex right now reading me killing the grammar lol.

EDIT: Correct now :D thanks javin!
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Ryng_tolu said:
Because there is that stupid rule of use "ed" for the pastle usually :p and now i can't imagine how is Rex right now reading me killing the grammar lol.
Click to expand...
Haha, I was just wondering. Nothing wrong with grammatical errors, I guess, but I just found it strange that you leave out "-ed" in many instances. Also, "stupid rule of using". :p

RexNovis said:
I mean... I've given up on you already. It's the only way to keep my sanity in NPD threads.
Click to expand...
And people around me are going to wonder why I'm laughing like an idiot now. Thanks, Rex. :p
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
pager99 said:
Why was June 2015 such a good month for hardware sales last year anybody lnow
Click to expand...

Insane promotions for both console, new 1TB model for XBO, and Batman bundle for PS4.

Oh, and Batman, of course.

Batman-Arkham-Knight-PS4-Bundles-2.jpg
Click to expand...
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Pardon my dumb jokes, Rex, since I'm in the train and it's going to be a two hours ride home, but I hope you don't go like this when your students make a grammatical mistake. :p

tumblr_nqj5sw4bSU1u5tn07o1_540.gif
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of June and July. This is when it is beneficial to compare weekly averages and not just simple month to month, because June is a 5 week month while July is only 4. I’ve also gathered software for July to help explain why July would be worse than June. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.

Code: 
2010

Xbox 360 June: 451,700 / 5 = 90,340
Xbox 360 July: 443,500 / 4 = 110,875

Weekly average up 23%

PS3 June: 304,800 / 5 = 60,960
PS3 July: 214,500 / 4 = 53,625

Weekly average down 12%

Wii June: 422,500 / 5 = 84,500
Wii July: 253,900 / 4 = 63,475

Weekly average down 25%

Code: 
Notable Releases in July

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
NCAA Football 11 [368,000]
Crackdown 2 [208,800]

[u]PS3[/u]
NCAA Football 11 [298,800]

Code: 
2011

Xbox 360 June: 507K / 5 = 101,400
Xbox 360 July: 277K / 4 = 69,250

Weekly average down 32%

PS3 June: 276K / 5 = 55,200
PS3 July: 145K / 4 = 36,250

Weekly average down 34%

Wii June: 273K / 5 = 54,600
Wii July: 190K / 4 = 47,500

Weekly average down 13%

Code: 
Notable Releases in July

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
NCAA Football 12

[u]PS3[/u]
NCAA Football 12

Code: 
2012

Xbox 360 June: 257K / 5 = 51,400
Xbox 360 July: 203K / 4 = 50,750

Weekly average down 1%

PS3 June: 188K / 5 = 37,600
PS3 July: 139K / 4 = 34,750

Weekly average down 8%

Wii June: 95k / 5 = 19,000
Wii July: 69k / 4 = 17,250

Weekly average down 9%

Code: 
Notable Releases in July

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
NCAA Football 13

[u]PS3[/u]
NCAA Football 13

Code: 
2013

Xbox 360 June: 140K / 5 = 28,000
Xbox 360 July: 107K / 4 = 26,750

Weekly average down 4%

PS3 June: 109K / 5 = 21,800
PS3 July: 79k / 4 = 19,750

Weekly average down 9%

Wii June: 53k / 5 = 10,600
Wii July: 34k / 4 = 8,500

Weekly average down 20%

Wii U June: 42k / 5 = 8,400
Wii U July: 29k / 4 = 7,250

Weekly average down 14%

Code: 
Notable Releases in July

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
NCAA Football 14

[u]PS3[/u]
NCAA Football 14

Code: 
2014

Xbox 360 June: 62k / 5 = 12,400
Xbox 360 July: 54K / 4 = 13,500

Weekly average up 9%

Xbox One June: 197K / 5 = 39,400
Xbox One July: 131K / 4 = 32,750

Weekly average down 17%

PS3 June: 42k / 5 = 8,400
PS3 July: 32k / 4 = 8,000

Weekly average down 5%

PS4 June: 269K / 5 = 53,800
PS4 July: 187K / 4 = 46,750

Weekly average down 13%

Wii June: 10K / 5 = 2,000
Wii July: 14k / 4 = 3,500

Weekly average up 75%

Wii U June: 140K / 5 = 28,000
Wii U July: 81k / 4 = 20,250

Weekly average down 28%

Code: 
Notable Releases in July

[u]PS4[/u]
The Last of Us Remastered [270k]

Code: 
2015

Xbox 360/PS3/Wii = Basically dead (and some months have not leaked yet for 2015) 

Xbox One June: 296,000 / 5 = 59,200
Xbox One July: 189K / 4 = 47,250

Weekly average down 20%

PS4 June: 364,100 / 5 = 72,820
PS4 July: 218K / 4 = 54,500

Weekly average down 25%

Wii U June: 70,200 / 5 = 14,040
Wii U July: 46k / 4 = 11,500

Weekly average down 18%

Code: 
Notable Releases in July

N/A

Code: 
2016 June Weekly Averages

Xbox One: 211,900 / 5 = 42,380
PS4: 234,500 / 5 = 46,900
Wii U: 34,600 / 5 = 6,920

Some notes:

For the Xbox 360, right off the bat it improved by 23% compared to June, and that was thanks to sales of the just recently released Xbox 360 S back in June 2010. Besides that, the only other time the Xbox 360 improved was in 2014 for some reason. Can’t really tell you why. I’ll drop 2010 when comparing averages as nothing else like the Slim has happened since. Dropping that makes the 360’s average drop 7%, dropping 2010 AND 2014 would have the average drop to 13%, dropping those AND 2011 (massive drop) would be a drop of 3%, and keeping all of them would be a drop of 1%.

The Xbox One has had major hardware impacting events occur in every June so far. $399 Kinectless sku in 2014, $399 1TB SKU + Trade in deals in 2015, and now TWO price cuts in 2016, as well as the announcement of the Xbox One S for August (and Scorpio, but that has no impact this early in the game). Because of those, the XB1 has a larger drop compared to the 360 which is 19%.

PS3 behaved similarly between 2010 - 2014 (excluding the drop of 34% in 2011). The average for it is a 14% drop and if you remove 2011, it’s an 8% drop.

PS4 has been very similar to the XB1 in performance, with an average 19% drop.

For Nintendo, I'm just getting rid of that humongous 2014 outlier of a 75% increase (What even happened?). The Wii averaged a 17% drop with the Wii U averaging a 20% drop.

Recap.

Code: 
360 weekly average drop: -1% to -13%
PS3 weekly average drop: -8% to -14%
Wii weekly average drop: -17%

XB1 weekly average drop: -19%
PS4 weekly average drop: -19%
WIU weekly average drop: -20%

Average of Averages: -14% to -17%

- The biggest July ever recorded between the 7th and 8th gen was the Wii with 555,000 back in 2008. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 443,500 back in 2011.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
About NES mini:
I wouldn't read too much into the freakout on GAF. Sales might become fine for Nintendo, but this toy has a very small target group, nerds and retro gaming enthousiasts.
This is not the kind of present kids and bros desire.
 
L

LordofPwn

Member
slavesnyder said:
About NES mini:
I wouldn't read too much into the freakout on GAF. Sales might become fine for Nintendo, but this toy has a very small target group, nerds and retro gaming enthousiasts.
This is not the kind of present kids and bros desire.
Click to expand...
Was celebrating my grandmothers birthday last night and everyone that was there besides my grandma wanted one. my parents told me to pre-order one for them as soon as possible, was told to make it 3 in case stock runs out and then i could flip it on e-bay.

the last system my parents bought was a wii, because everyone wanted one of those.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Another Data from Aquamarine on VGC:

"So ExtremeBrawler, Ryng_Tolu, jungemann and poklane all want Uncharted 4. Okay, I'll talk about it, then.
So I already said that Overwatch is 423K on consoles (PC also did very well for Overwatch this month considering the physical PC market).
...Well, Uncharted didn't fare nearly as well.
Uncharted is 160K-190K including bundles.....sorry guys. Uncharted games never light up the NPD charts...they're a worldwide IP.
But on the plus side, Uncharted is still on a good place on the Top 10 this month, along with Doom. Their legs didn't just evaporate the instant their launch month was over, which is always a good sign."

- Aquamarine on Gamrconnect / VG Chartz
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Another post from Aqua which show how inaccurate VGC is...

"I want you guys to take a look at this:

x5p7AMj.png


It's the data that just released on VG Chartz about USA sales for Mirror's Edge Catalyst opening week.

According to NPD, Mirror's Edge Catalyst only sold 99K units IN THE MONTH OF JUNE. So the performance is underwhelming even when you look at the already underwhelming VG Chartz estimates. "

- Aquamarine on gamrConnect / VG Chartz
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Ryng_tolu said:
Another post from Aqua which show how inaccurate VGC is...

"I want you guys to take a look at this:

x5p7AMj.png


It's the data that just released on VG Chartz about USA sales for Mirror's Edge Catalyst opening week.

According to NPD, Mirror's Edge Catalyst only sold 99K units
IN THE MONTH OF JUNE.
So the performance is underwhelming even when you look at the already underwhelming VG Chartz estimates. "

- Aquamarine on gamrConnect / VG Chartz
Click to expand...

Of course we must consider how digital plays a bigger role in overall sales, but...only 100,000 units between both PS4 and One at retail? Damn.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Some Nintendo numbers

"So let's talk about the two new Wii U releases by Nintendo this month.
Let's use....30K as our benchmark.
Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE is above that 30K benchmark, but not significantly (aka. it's not >100K or anything like that). So it's in the 30-80K range in its first month...that sort of area.
Tepid sales in the overall market, but can you really expect anything better from a niche JRPG releasing on a dead console at retail? At least it didn't COMPLETELY bomb retail-wise. Digital share should also be high for this kind of title.
But speaking of disasters.......
Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games COULDN'T EVEN HIT that 30K benchmark. Not even 25K. Quite disastrous in all honesty.
Another bomb? Good ol' beloved Mighty No. 9. WEAK retail start. Couldn't even hit the ~40K territory."

- Aquamarine on GamrConnect / VG Chartz
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
LMFAO!!!!

"Also, an interesting comparison this month:
Overwatch is at 423K, right?
Well Battleborn COMPLETELY COLLAPSED this month. Below 50K. Below 40K. Below 30K. Below 20K. Etc. It's horrible given how successful its direct competition is."

- Aquamarine on GamrConnect / VG Chartz
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
WTF numbers are out .
This has been a strange NPD month lol.

EDIT see some software also out .
UC did what i expect , it's not a big IP in USA.
ME sales are poor , OW did good and poor Battleborn
 
S

Sterok

Member
Well, I can be happy that Tokyo Mirage Sessions had a modicum of success (or less of a failure than previously anticipated). Good word of mouth must have done wonders for it.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Sterok said:
Well, I can be happy that Tokyo Mirage Sessions had a modicum of success (or less of a failure than previously anticipated). Good word of mouth must have done wonders for it.
Click to expand...

Well, that depends on where it actually is, 30-80k is an absurd range.

(hey Aquamarine if you read this I wanna know how Star Ocean 5 did in comparison to this game)
 
K

KillerMan91

Member
Tokyo Mirage Sessions is probably one of the biggest bombs of the whole gen. It was in development forever and given these numbers is probably around or under 100k in US and Japan retail combined.
 
Bruno MB

Bruno MB

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
Aqua posted it sold 879,000 unit last month, so that's a 82% to 78% drop,

IMPRESSIVE LEGS :p
Click to expand...

Second month drop was similar for the European markets we have data for (UK and Spain).

UK

Code: 
[May, 2016] UNCHARTED 4: A THIEF'S END (SONY COMPUTER ENT.) ~ 260,000 / NEW
[Jun, 2016] UNCHARTED 4: A THIEF'S END (SONY COMPUTER ENT.) ~ 56,000 / 316,000 (-78%)

Code: 
[May, 2016] DOOM (BETHESDA SOFTWORKS) ~ 126,000 / NEW
[Jun, 2016] DOOM (BETHESDA SOFTWORKS) ~ 64,000 / 190,000 (-49%)

I think we should open June's NPD thread, post some PR news in the OP (for example Nintendo statement) and then post all Aquamarine data in the thread as we usually do.
 
R

Rymuth

Member
Holy moly @ those Battleborn numbers. The gaming Gods must have declared this game DOA before it was even concieved
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Uc4 seems to be following the same drop as in the other markets from Europe that we had data from. Also, a fairly similar drop to the more typical front-loaded title.

Yikes at Mirrors Edge. Good that EA had expectations low I guess.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
CosmicQueso said:
Battleborn has to be transitioning to a f2p model as we speak, right? Evolve gained over a million new players overnight. Have to imagine this shift is going to come to Battleborn.
.
Click to expand...
It will be interesting to see if this will become a trend for failed multiplayer titles.
And if this is a remedy for all of them.
There's a good chance that the same game might fail twice.
 
C

Conduit

Banned
WTF happened? NPD results are already out?

Microsoft is standing by its decision not to report hardware sales data, but said that more than 1.2 billion hours were played on Xbox One. That’s a platform record and double performance from a year ago.
Click to expand...

Ugh! Of course it is. Maybe because install base is much bigger, hm, Microsoft?
 
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