I think they won't release their new console before Q4 2016. They can get PS4 like graphics at € 250 around that time, maybe a little less, but graphics isn't what a Nintendo console is about for me. Plus, it would still be a second console for me, so I want it to be affordable. I won't buy it at € 399 as I'm perfectly happy with my PS4.As for your first Point: You really want them to go with an underpowered Console again? Because this is what you will get for <250€
As for your Pokémon point: I just don't like to play games on a portable. I want a game like that on a big screen. I know it won't happen, but still, it could be the perfect game for me. And I still think you need more than semi MMO like features for it to reach full potential.